Real-Time Mesoscale Forecast Support During the CLAMS Field Campaign

This paper reports the use of a specialized, mesoscale, numerical weather prediction （NWP） system and a satellite imaging and prediction system that were set up to support the CLAMS （Chesapeake Lighthouse and Aircraft Measurements for Satellites） field campaign during the summer of 2001. The primary objective of CLAMS was to validate satellite-based retrievals of aerosol properties and vertical profiles of the radiative flux, temperature and water vapor. Six research aircraft were deployed to make detailed coincident measurements of the atmosphere and ocean surface with the research satellites that orbited overhead. The mesoscale weather modeling system runs in real-time to provide high spatial and temporal resolution for forecasts that are delivered via the World Wide Web along with a variety of satellite imagery and satellite location predictions. This system is a multi-purpose modeling system capable of both data analysis/assimilation and multi-scale NWP ranging from cloud-scale to larger than regional scale. This is a three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic compressible model in a terrain-following coordinate. The model employs advanced numerical techniques and contains detailed interactive physical processes. The utility of the forecasting system is illustrated throughout the discussion on the impact of the surface-wind forecast on BRDF （Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function） and the description of the cloud/moisture forecast versus the aircraft measurement.

A Review of Research on the Record-Breaking Precipitation Event in Henan Province,China,July 2021

A record-breaking precipitation event,with a maximum 24-h(1-h)precipitation of 624 mm(201.9 mm)observed at Zhengzhou Weather Station,occurred in Henan Province,China,in July 2021.However,all global operational forecast models failed to predict the intensity and location of maximum precipitation for this event.The unexpected heavy rainfall caused 398 deaths and 120.06 billion RMB of economic losses.The high-societal-impact of this event has drawn much attention from the research community.This article provides a research review of the event from the perspectives of observations,analysis,dynamics,predictability,and the connection with climate warming and urbanization.Global reanalysis data show that there was an anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that resulted in abundant moisture supply to the region of interest.Three mesoscale systems(a mesoscale low pressure system,a barrier jet,and downslope gravity current)were found by recent high-resolution model simulation and data assimilation studies to have contributed to the local intensification of the rainstorm.Furthermore,observational analysis has suggested that an abrupt increase in graupel through microphysical processes after the sequential merging of three convective cells contributed to the record-breaking precipitation.Although these findings have aided in our understanding of the extreme rainfall event,preliminary analysis indicated that the practical predictability of the extreme rainfall for this event was rather low.The contrary influences of climate warming and urbanization on precipitation extremes as revealed by two studies could add further challenges to the predictability.We conclude that data sharing and collaboration between meteorological and hydrological researchers will be crucial in future research on high-impact weather events.

青藏高原沙漠化对东亚沙尘气溶胶的敏感性模拟分析

为了认识青藏高原严重沙漠化将产生的沙尘气溶胶及其影响,利用全球气溶胶气候模式CAM3.1对青藏高原沙漠化进行了敏感性模拟试验,进而探讨了高原沙漠对东亚大气气溶胶的最大可能贡献。结果表明,青藏高原上潜在的起沙源区主要分布在临近柴达木盆地的高原西部、藏南地区以及青南高原;高原起沙量春季最大,秋季次之,冬季第三,夏季最小。沙漠化的高原除了显著增加了高原上大气沙尘气溶胶的浓度,也显著增加了中国中西部地区近地面大气边界层的沙尘气溶胶浓度,远距离传输至中国中西部地区、东伸到达中国东海岸,甚至朝鲜半岛、日本直至太平洋上空对流层中部的沙尘气溶胶浓度同样增加明显。青藏高原沙源在近源区(即青藏高原及周边地区)的高贡献主要在低层,而在远源区(如日本岛南部海域及中太平洋区域)的贡献主要在高层。高原沙尘气溶胶极易被扬升到西风带,成为全球最高效率的沙尘远程传输源地。青藏高原沙漠化可能使其成为全球重要的沙尘气溶胶源地。

Summary of current research on Central Asian vortex

The Central Asian vortex (CAV) is an important synoptic-scale system that causes rainstorms, short-term heavy precipitation, hail, and sustained low temperatures in Xinjiang. This paper summarizes the current research conducted on the CAV since the 1960s. The objective definition of the CAV has been revised and a deep and shallow CAV classification proposed. Two high-frequency areas of deep CAVactivity are the Kazakhstan hills (Sayan mountains) and the eastern area of the Aral Sea (Tashkent); events mostly occur in summer and 40% cause strong rainfall. In addition, two high-frequency activity areas of the shallow CAV are located in the west and south of the Pamirs Plateau and mostly occur in spring; 23.2% of occurrences cause strong rainfall. The western and eastern water vapor transport relates to westerlies and a strong lowlevel easterly jet stream (LLEJ) extending from Gansu to Xinjiang, respectively, and water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau transports even more northwards and enters Xinjiang. The deep CAV has an obvious cold core structure down to 300 hPa. The conversion terms from eddy available potential energy eAET to eddy kinetic energy eKET and eddy kinetic energy inflow eBKET from the open atmospheric region boundaries are the main sources of KE which cause rapid development of the CAV. The anomalous anti-cyclone center over the northeast Atlantic is the fountain of Rossby wave energy dispersion; Rossby waves propagate from the northeast Atlantic to eastern Europe (Urals (EEU)), and then continuously propagate to Central Asia causing development of the CAV. The CAV requires further study to characterize the meso-scale system structure and evolution characteristics. In addition, physical modeling of the severe convective weather occurring under the CAV is required to determine the critical impacts of this severe convective weather and enable forecasting and early-warning indexes.

The Role of Stationary and Transient Planetary Waves in the Maintenance of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Regimes in Northern Hemisphere Winter

Using 1958-2002 NCEPNCAR reanalysis data, we investigate stationary and transient planetary wave propagation and its role in wave-mean flow interaction which influences the state of the polar vortex （PV） in the stratosphere in Northern Hemisphere （NH） winter. This is done by analyzing the Eliassen-Palm （E-P） flux and its divergence. We find that the stationary and transient waves propagate upward and equatorward in NH winter, with stronger upward propagation of stationary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and stronger equatorward propagation of transient waves from mid-latitudes to the subtropics in the troposphere. Stationary waves exhibit more upward propagation in the polar stratosphere during the weak polar vortex regime （WVR） than during the strong polar vortex regime （SVR）. On the other hand, transient waves have more upward propagation during SVR than during WVR in the subpolar stratosphere, with a domain of low frequency waves. With different paths of upward propagation, both stationary and transient waves contribute to the maintenance of the observed stratospheric PV regimes in NH winter.

Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Flux in an Urban Residential Area in Seoul,Korea

The carbon dioxide （CO2） concentrations and fluxes measured at a height of 17.5 m above the ground by a sonic anemometer and an open-path gas analyzer at an urban residential site in Seoul, Korea from February 2011 to January 2012 were analyzed. The annual mean CO2 concentration was found to be 750 mg m-3, with a maximum monthly mean concentration of 827 mg m-3 in January and a minimum value of 679 mg m-3 in August. Meanwhile, the annual mean CO2 flux was found to be 0.45 mg m-2 s-1, with a maximum monthly mean flux of 0.91 mg m-2 s-1 in January and a minimum value of 0.19 mg m-2 s-1 in June. The hourly mean CO2 concentration was found to show a significant diurnal variation; a maximum at 0700-0900 LST and a minimum at 1400-1600 LST, with a large diurnal range in winter and a small one in summer, mainly caused by diurnal changes in mixing height, CO2 flux, and surface complexity. The hourly mean CO2 flux was also found to show a significant diurnal variation, but it showed two maxima at 0700-0900 LST and 2100-2400 LST, and two minima at 1100-1500 LST and 0300-0500 LST, mainly caused by a diurnal pattern in CO2 emissions and sinks from road traffic, domestic heating and cooking by liquefied natural gas use, and the different horizontal distribution of CO2 sources and sinks near the site. Differential advection with respect to wind direction was also found to be a cause of diurnal variations in both the CO2 concentration and flux.

Lessons Learned from the Tragedy during the 100 km Ultramarathon Race in Baiyin,Gansu Province on 22 May 2021

Twenty-one runners died of hypothermia during the 100 km Ultramarathon Mountain race in Baiyin,Gansu Province on 22 May 2021.The hypothermia was caused by a combination of low temperatures,precipitation,and high winds associated with a typical large-scale cold front passing by the race site that morning.Based on historical hourly records of 13 meteorological surface stations over the past six years,temperature(3.0°C)and apparent temperature(−5.1°C)at 1200 LST as well as gust wind speed(11.2 m s^(−1))at 1100 LST on the day of the tragedy were found to be within the top or bottom 5th percentile for the month of May.The precipitation was only moderate at this time,but when temperature lower than 3.0°C,gust wind speed greater than 11.2 m s^(−1),and precipitation greater than 0.1 mm for any adjacent three hours were combined together,1200 LST 22 May fell within the top 0.1%of cases.The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model produced reasonably good forecasts of the low temperature and high wind one day and seven days before the event,respectfully.Based on this study,lessons that can be learned from this tragedy are summarized from an academic perspective:Hazard and impact forecasts of high-impact weather events should be developed to increase the value of weather forecasts.Probability forecasts should be issued by government weather agencies and communicated well to the public.And more importantly,knowledge of how to evaluate the impact of weather should be delivered to the public in the future.We would like to extend our deepest condolences to the families and loved ones of the people who lost their lives in this tragedy,including 21 runners and one officer.May our efforts honor those who lost their lives by highlighting the value of weather forecasting and calling for greater action in the future.

Double cores of the Ozone Low in the vertical direction over the Asian continent in satellite data sets

Using four satellite data sets(TOMS/SBUV, OMI, MLS, and HALOE), we analyze the seasonal variations of the total column ozone(TCO) and its zonal deviation(TCO*), and reveal the vertical structure of the Ozone Low(OV) over the Asian continent. Our principal findings are:(1) The TCO over the Asian continent reaches its maximum in the spring and its minimum in the autumn. The Ozone Low exists from May to September.(2) The Ozone Low has two negative cores, located in the lower and the upper stratosphere. The lower core is near 30 hPa in the winter and 70 hPa in the other seasons. The upper core varies from 10 hPa to 1 hPa among the four seasons.(3)The position of the Ozone Low in the lower and the upper stratosphere over the Asian continent shows seasonal variability.

Impacts on Initial Condition Modification from Hyperspectral Infrared Sounding Data Assimilation: Comparisons between Full-Spectrum and Channel-Selection Scheme Based on Two-Month Experiments Using CrIS and IASI Observation

This paper discusses the performance difference between full-spectrum and channel-selection assimilation scheme of hyperspectral infrared observation, e.g. CrIS and IASI, on improving the accuracy of initial condition in numerical weather prediction. To accomplish this, we develop a 3D-Variational data assimilation system whose observation operator is a principal-component based fast radiative transfer model, which equips the direct assimilation of full-channel radiance from hyperspectral infrared sounders with high computational efficiency. This project’s primary goal is to demonstrate that assimilation of infrared observation in a full-channel mode could improve the accuracy of initial condition compared to selected-channel assimilation. Results show that full-channel assimilation performs better than selected-channel assimilation in modifying low and middle troposphere (1000 - 700 hPa, 700 - 400 hPa) temperature and water vapor field, while marginal improvements from temperature and water vapor field could be found over upper troposphere (400 - 100 hPa). This research also proves the feasibility of an alternative path to data assimilation for the full usage of hyperspectral infrared sounding observation in numerical weather prediction.

An Elegant Coupled Model

This paper deals with a new family of coupled wave equations which are basically nonlinear in nature. An analytical study enables us to show that these equations exhibit solitary wave profiles. Finally some remarks are drawn from the standpoint of atmospheric problem.

Invariant Measures and Asymptotic Gaussian Bounds for Normal Forms of Stochastic Climate Model

The systematic development of reduced low-dimensional stochastic climate models from observations or comprehensive high dimensional climate models is an important topic for atmospheric low-frequency variability,climate sensitivity,and improved extended range forecasting.Recently,techniques from applied mathematics have been utilized to systematically derive normal forms for reduced stochastic climate models for low-frequency variables.It was shown that dyad and multiplicative triad interactions combine with the climatological linear operator interactions to produce a normal form with both strong nonlinear cubic dissipation and Correlated Additive and Multiplicative(CAM) stochastic noise.The probability distribution functions(PDFs) of low frequency climate variables exhibit small but significant departure from Gaussianity but have asymptotic tails which decay at most like a Gaussian.Here,rigorous upper bounds with Gaussian decay are proved for the invariant measure of general normal form stochastic models.Asymptotic Gaussian lower bounds are also established under suitable hypotheses.

Changes in climate regimes over China based on a high-resolution dataset

During the 20th century the global climate has been shifted towards warmer and drier regimes, mainly due to anthropogenic warming [1,2]. Climate changes can notably disrupt the environment and ecosystems. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on ecoregions, the Kdppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification [3] is widely used because it was constructed on the basis of surface vegetation. The K-T classification system combines temperature, precipitation, and their seasonality into a single metric. Six major climate types and several sub-climate types are defined (A: tropical, B: dry, C: subtropical, D: temperate, E: subpolar, F: polar). Each K-T climate type is consistent with certain prevalent plant species. Definitions and criteria of K-T climate types were outlined by Feng et al.[4].

Global structure and seasonal variations of the migrating 6-h tide observed by SABER/TIMED

Ten years of SABER/TIMED temperature data are used to analyze the global structure and seasonal variations of the migrating 6-h tide from the stratosphere to the lower thermosphere. The amplitudes of the migrating 6-h tide increase with altitudes. In the stratosphere, the migrating 6-h tide peaks around 35°N/S. The climatologically annual mean of the migrating 6-h tide clearly shows the manifestation of the(4, 6) Hough mode between 70 and 90 km that peaks at the equator and near 35°N/S. Above 90 km, the 6-h tide shows more than one Hough mode with the(4, 6) mode being the dominant one. The migrating 6-h tide is stronger in the southern hemisphere. Annual, semiannual, 4-, and 3-month oscillations are the four dominant seasonal variations of the tidal amplitude. In the stratosphere and stratopause, the spring enhancement of the 6-h tide at middle latitudes is the most conspicuous feature. From the mesosphere to the lower thermosphere, the tidal amplitude at low latitudes is gradually in the scale of that at middle latitudes and exhibits different temporal variations at different altitudes and latitudes. Both ozone heating in the stratosphere and the background atmosphere probably affect the generation and the seasonal variations of the migrating 6-h tide. In addition, the non-linear interaction between different tidal harmonics is another possible mechanism.

Air quality short-term control in an industrial region under adverse weather conditions

A new short-term optimal control of air quality in an industrial region during atmospheric inversions is proposed.lts goal is to prevent violation of health standard of air quality in a few monitored zones.The control establishes restrictions on the emission rates of industrial sources and includes the identification of the industrial sources violating(exceeding)the emission rates set by the control.Both control and identification are based on using solutions to an adjoint dispersion model.Conditions that show the convergence of the emission rates,prescribed by the control,to the original emission rates of the industrial sources are given(Theorems 4 and 5).These results ensure that the new emission rates of industrial sources(established by the control)will be as close as possible to the original emission rates throughout the entire period of application of the control.This creates the minimum possible restrictions on the functioning of industrial enterprises.The highlight of the new control is the possibility of selecting special weights for each pollution source in the goal function that is minimized.These weights are mainly aimed at reducing the intensity of emissions of the main sources of pollution.An example demonstrates the ability of the new method.A similar approach can also be used to develop methods for cleaning water zones polluted by oil(the problem of bioremediation),and to prevent excessive pollution of urban areas with automobile emissions.

Passive diffusion sampling of sulfur dioxide in India: Impact assessment on arid areas

Environmental constraints have drastically limited options of sustainable developmentand have severely offset many developmental schemes. In this paper, possibilities of acidic depo-sition, as a counter measure of desertification, are analyzed. Seasonal data of ambient sulfur di-oxide, pH of rain water and soil acidity are collected for over an year and analyzed. Arid environ-ment of surrounding areas of Delhi is considered and analyzed. Though ambient sulfur depositionis well below critical level, it might not be truly indicative of plant survival in arid areas. Results maybe useful in arid area afforestation, and polluting industries relocation, which holds tremendouspotential vis-a-vis sustainable development.