Characterizing Vulnerability of Crop-Based Rural Systems to Climate Change and Variability: Agro-Ecology Specific Empirical Evidence from the Dabus Watershed, North-West Ethiopia

Climate change is impacting climate sensitive rural livelihood systems. Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of agricultural livelihoods to climate variability and change differ across agro-ecologies and these pose a challenge to climate resilient development strategy. This study assesses agro-ecology specific vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability in the Dabus Watershed (North-west Ethiopia), based on a survey of 734 farm households complemented with focus group discussion and key informant interviews. Recognizing the physiographic and climatic diversity that exists across agro-ecologies in the study area, Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) is adapted to assess agro-ecology specific vulnerability in two local agro-ecologies, namely wet lowland and dry lowland. For each agro-ecology, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices as well as LVI-IPCC vulnerability score was calculated. The result shows that the dry lowland agro-ecology has a relatively higher exposure and sensitivity to climate stresses with a comparatively limited adaptive capability. On the other hand, the wet lowland agro-ecology exhibits intermediate vulnerability with a relatively lower perceived exposure and higher adaptive capacity. Higher exposure relative to adaptive capacity resulted in a positive LVI-IPCC score in the dry lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in more vulnerable level than the wet lowland. A higher adaptive capacity relative to exposure unveils a negative LVI-IPCC score for the wet lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in a moderate vulnerability category. In line with the findings, there is a need to set agro-ecology specific priorities for intervention that is most needed to cop up with the effects of climate variability and change in each agro-ecology. Climate risk exposure levels can be reduced through timely provision of climate specific information and early warning systems aimed at enhancing preparedness of farm households to extreme events. It is also crucial to expand availability of infrastructural facilities such as market, health services, and veterinary services so as to enhance adaptive capacity. Supporting alternative livelihood options and enhancing water harvesting practices for supplementary irrigation also call policy attention.

Adapting Smallholder Agriculture to Climate Change through Sustainable Land Management Practices： Empirical Evidence from North-West Ethiopia

The objective of this paper was to determine the factors that influence farmers＇ decision to use two categories of sustainable land management （SLM） practices as adaptation strategy to climate change in the North-West Ethiopia. It was based on analysis of data collected from 734 farm household heads and employed probit regression model to analyze the determinants of adaptation to climate change through SLM measures. Based on the model result, factors, like perception of climate change, exposure to adaptation techniques, education, perception of land degradation, slope, land prone to degradation, number of parcels, crop enterprise income, land size, farm distance, economically active family size and agro-ecology are found important in determining farmers＇ decision to use structural land management practices. Likewise, perception of climate change, exposure to adaptation, farming experience, slope, crop enterprise income, land prone to degradation and agro-ecology are found important in affecting farmers＇ decision to use non-structural land management practices as adaptation measure. Therefore, in line with the findings of the analysis, any intervention that promotes use of land management practices as adaptation strategy should take into account agro-ecology specific factors that are relevant to the nature of the land management practices. Moreover, since scaling up of SLM practices as adaptation strategy is resource intensive, it requires both public and non-public investment for providing technological support and raising awareness. Failure to do so would adversely affect crop productivity and exacerbate food insecurity problems at farm household level.

Farmers’perception of climate change and adaptation strategies in the Dabus watershed,North-West Ethiopia

Introduction:This study is aimed at analyzing farmers’perception and adaptation to climate change in the Dabus watershed.It is based on analysis of data collected from 734 randomly selected farm household heads substantiated with Focus Group Discussions and field observations.Methods:The study employed descriptive methods to assess farmers’perception of climate change,local indicators of climate change and types of adaptation measures exercised to cope up with the risk of the change in climate.The study also employed the Heckman sample selection model to analyze the two-step process of adaptation to climate change which initially requires farmers’perception that climate is changing prior to responding to the changes through adaptation measures.Results:Based on the model result educational attainment,the age of the head of the household,the number of crop failures in the past,changes in temperature and precipitation significantly influenced farmers’perception of climate change in wet lowland parts of the study area.In dry lowland condition,farming experience,climate information,duration of food shortage,and the number of crop failures experienced determined farmers’perception of climate change.Farmers’adaptation decision in both the wet and dry lowland conditions is influenced by household size,the gender of household head,cultivated land size,education,farm experience,non-farm income,income from livestock,climate information,extension advice,farm-home distance and number of parcels.However,the direction of influence and significance level of most of the explanatory variables vary between the two parts of the study area.Conclusions:In line with the results,any intervention that promotes the use of adaptation measures to climate change may account for location-specific factors that determine farmers'perception of climate change and adaptive responses thereof.

Quantifying Uncertainties in CERES/MODIS Downwelling Radiation Fluxes in the Global Tropical Oceans

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System program,which uses the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(CM),has been updated with the launch of new satellites and the availability of newly upgraded radiation data.The spatial and temporal variability of daily averaged synoptic 1-degree CM version 3(CMv3)(old)and version 4(CMv4)(new)downwelling shortwave(QS)and longwave radiation(QL)data in the global tropical oceans spanning 30°S-30°N from 2000 to 2017 is investigated.Daily in situ data from the Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array were used to validate the CM data from 2000 to 2015.When compared to CMv3,both QS and QL in CMv4 show significant improvements in bias,root-mean-square error,and standard deviations.Furthermore,a long-term trend analysis shows that QS has been increasing by 1 W m^(−2) per year in the Southern Hemisphere.In contrast,the Northern Hemisphere has a−0.7 W m^(−2) annual decreasing trend.QS and QL exhibit similar spatial trend patterns.However,in the Indian Ocean,Indo-Pacific warm pool region,and Southern Hemisphere,QL spatial patterns in CMv3 and CMv4 differ with an opposite trend(0.5 W m^(−2)).These annual trends in QS and QL could cause the sea surface temperature to change by−0.2 to 0.3℃per year in the tropical oceans.These results stress the importance of accurate radiative flux data,and CMv4 can be an alternative to reanalysis or other model-simulated data.

Farmers' decision to adopt watershed management practices in Gibe basin, southwest Ethiopia

Watershed management practices have been implemented to avert land degradation and to enhance people's livelihoods in the highlands of Ethiopia for several years.However,the successes of these practices have been quite limited and the main factors affecting these practices have not been examined in detail.This study intended to investigate rates and intensities of adoption of watershed management practices and to determine the main factors affecting farmers' adoption decisions in the upper Gibe basin.Data were collected from 304 household heads in six sub catchments across different topographic settings using household interview.Focus groups discussions,key informant interviews and transect walk observations were also used.Descriptive statistics and econometric models such as,multivariate and ordered probit were used to analyze the data.The results revealed that the majority of households (82.6 percent) used at least one of the six practices considered in this study.Soil bund,grass strip cultivation with soil bund and compost were the major watershed management practices adopted by farmers.Adoption rate and intensity of adoption were better for program participants and in upper and middle topographic settings.The results of the multivariate and ordered probit analysis indicated that household size,extension services,credit services,training services and perception of soil erosion had positive significant relationship with both rate and intensity of adoption of most practices.Hence,policy makers and planners need to consider labor,knowledge and awareness,and capital intensive nature of the practices for the up scaling planning and implementations of watershed intervention technologies.