The magnitude of the future global warming is uncertain, but the possible dramatic changes associated with high temperatures have seen rising attention in the literature. Projections of temperature change in the liter...The magnitude of the future global warming is uncertain, but the possible dramatic changes associated with high temperatures have seen rising attention in the literature. Projections of temperature change in the literature are often presented in probabilistic terms and typically highlight the most likely ranges of future temperature under assumed emission scenarios. However, focusing on these high probability outcomes of global warming omits important information related to the threats of low-probability but high-impact outcomes under more extreme change. As such, we argue that the literature should place more emphasis on communicating the probabilities of extreme temperature change, in a way that is accessible to policymakers and the general public. The damage associated with climate change is likely to be non-linear with temperature, and thus extreme temperature changes may pose a larger risk than the most likely outcomes. We use a simple climate model to explore the probabilities of high surface temperature under business as usual emissions scenarios, given current knowledge of the climate system. In a business as usual scenario (A1FI) we find the probability of “likely” warming (central 66%) to be approximately 4.4°C-6.9°C in 2100 (above 1900 levels). However, we find extreme (>7°C) warming to embody a notable portion of damage risk compared to this likely range.展开更多
This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of inte...This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of interpreting what is often presented on climate change without considering how the audience receives that information and might or might not be inspired to take action based on it. Different meanings of “change” are examined in the context of “climate change.” The term “adaptation” is similarly analyzed. Based on the understanding of those terms, four notions are defined and outlined in relation to decision-making for climate change adaptation: Ignorance versus “Ignore-ance,” surprise, foreseeability, and forecasting by analogy. The conclusions explore the interlinkages between society and the environment as well as how to turn lessons identified into lessons that are actually learned in order to be implemented. Achieving inspiration is not straightforward, but without it, the future will be bleak under a changing society and environment.展开更多
An investigation using recall questionnaires was conducted in winter and autumn 2006 to evaluate the time-activity patterns in Chongqing,China.The average time spent in seven microenvironments(MEs)including outdoors,t...An investigation using recall questionnaires was conducted in winter and autumn 2006 to evaluate the time-activity patterns in Chongqing,China.The average time spent in seven microenvironments(MEs)including outdoors,transit,living room,bedroom,kitchen,classroom/office,and other indoors were found to be about 3.5,1.1,2.5,9.7,1.4,4.2,and 1.7 h per day,respectively.According to the results of a nonparametric test,the sampling period and day of week were significant for the variation of the time spent in all MEs except for transit and outdoors.The time budget was analyzed using a general linear model(GLM),which exhibited significant variability by demographic factors such as gender,age,residence,education,and household income.展开更多
文摘The magnitude of the future global warming is uncertain, but the possible dramatic changes associated with high temperatures have seen rising attention in the literature. Projections of temperature change in the literature are often presented in probabilistic terms and typically highlight the most likely ranges of future temperature under assumed emission scenarios. However, focusing on these high probability outcomes of global warming omits important information related to the threats of low-probability but high-impact outcomes under more extreme change. As such, we argue that the literature should place more emphasis on communicating the probabilities of extreme temperature change, in a way that is accessible to policymakers and the general public. The damage associated with climate change is likely to be non-linear with temperature, and thus extreme temperature changes may pose a larger risk than the most likely outcomes. We use a simple climate model to explore the probabilities of high surface temperature under business as usual emissions scenarios, given current knowledge of the climate system. In a business as usual scenario (A1FI) we find the probability of “likely” warming (central 66%) to be approximately 4.4°C-6.9°C in 2100 (above 1900 levels). However, we find extreme (>7°C) warming to embody a notable portion of damage risk compared to this likely range.
文摘This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of interpreting what is often presented on climate change without considering how the audience receives that information and might or might not be inspired to take action based on it. Different meanings of “change” are examined in the context of “climate change.” The term “adaptation” is similarly analyzed. Based on the understanding of those terms, four notions are defined and outlined in relation to decision-making for climate change adaptation: Ignorance versus “Ignore-ance,” surprise, foreseeability, and forecasting by analogy. The conclusions explore the interlinkages between society and the environment as well as how to turn lessons identified into lessons that are actually learned in order to be implemented. Achieving inspiration is not straightforward, but without it, the future will be bleak under a changing society and environment.
基金This work was supported by the Environmental Decision Making in China(DEMAND)funded by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation(No.CHN-2087).
文摘An investigation using recall questionnaires was conducted in winter and autumn 2006 to evaluate the time-activity patterns in Chongqing,China.The average time spent in seven microenvironments(MEs)including outdoors,transit,living room,bedroom,kitchen,classroom/office,and other indoors were found to be about 3.5,1.1,2.5,9.7,1.4,4.2,and 1.7 h per day,respectively.According to the results of a nonparametric test,the sampling period and day of week were significant for the variation of the time spent in all MEs except for transit and outdoors.The time budget was analyzed using a general linear model(GLM),which exhibited significant variability by demographic factors such as gender,age,residence,education,and household income.
