This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model (ICM)--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific (EA-WNP) climate by the Center for Monsoon System Res...This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model (ICM)--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific (EA-WNP) climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of E1 Nifio as one of the most important factors on EA-WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA-WNP climate E1 Nifio and the East Asia-Pacific Pattern--are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated E1 Nifio has significant impact on EA-WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA-WNP climate.展开更多
Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field i...Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.展开更多
Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating impacts.Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced m...Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating impacts.Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern China.This paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six months.The skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently significant.However,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño events.The potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.展开更多
Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Pr...Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.展开更多
Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has ...Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.展开更多
Over the tropics, convection, wind shear (i.e., vertical and horizontal shear of wind and/or geostrophic adjustment comprising spontaneous imbalance in jet streams) and topography are the major sources for the gener...Over the tropics, convection, wind shear (i.e., vertical and horizontal shear of wind and/or geostrophic adjustment comprising spontaneous imbalance in jet streams) and topography are the major sources for the generation of gravity waves. During the summer monsoon season (June August) over the Indian subcontinent, convection and wind shear coexist. To determine the dominant source of gravity waves during monsoon season, an experiment was conducted using mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) radar situated at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), a tropical observatory in the southern part of the Indian subcontinent. MST radar was operated continuously for 72 h to capture high-frequency gravity waves. During this time, a radiosonde was released every 6 h in addition to the regular launch (once daily to study low-frequency gravity waves) throughout the season. These two data sets were utilized effectively to characterize the jet stream and the associated gravity waves. Data available from collocated instruments along with satellite-based brightness temperature (TBB) data were utilized to characterize the convection in and around Gadanki. Despite the presence of two major sources of gravity wave generation (i.e., convection and wind shear) during the monsoon season, wind shear (both vertical shear and geostrophic adjustment) contributed the most to the generation of gravity waves on various scales.展开更多
In this paper,we first review the research advancements in blocking dynamics and highlight the merits and drawbacks of the previous theories of atmospheric blocking.Then,the dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric blockin...In this paper,we first review the research advancements in blocking dynamics and highlight the merits and drawbacks of the previous theories of atmospheric blocking.Then,the dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric blocking are presented based on a nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model.Previous studies suggested that the eddy deformation(e.g.,eddy straining,wave breaking,and eddy merging)might lead to the formation and maintenance of atmospheric blocking.However,the results were speculative and problematic because the previous studies,based on the time-mean eddy-mean flow interaction model,cannot identify the causal relationship between the evolution of atmospheric blocking and the eddy deformation.Based on the NMI model,we indicate that the onset,growth,maintenance,and decay of atmospheric blocking is mainly produced by the spatiotemporal evolution of pre-existing upstream synoptic-scale eddies,whereas the eddy deformation is a concomitant phenomenon of the blocking formation.The lifetime of blocking is mainly determined by the meridional background potential vorticity gradient(PVy)because a small PVyfavors weak energy dispersion and strong nonlinearity to sustain the blocking.But the zonal movement of atmospheric blocking is associated with the background westerly wind,PVy,and the blocking amplitude.Using this NMI model,a bridge from the climate change to sub-seasonal atmospheric blocking and weather extremes might be established via examining the effect of climate change on PVy.Thus,it is expected that using the NMI model to explore the dynamics of atmospheric blocking and its change is a new direction in the future.展开更多
Variations of surface air temperature (SAT) are key in affecting the hydrological cycle, ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill and reliability of SAT ...Variations of surface air temperature (SAT) are key in affecting the hydrological cycle, ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill and reliability of SAT in western China, using the GloSea5 operational forecast system from the UK Met Office. Useful predictions are demonstrated, with considerable skill over most regions of western China. The temporal correlation coefficients of SAT between model predictions and observations axe larger than 0.6, in both northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau. There are two important sources of skill for these predictions in western China: interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific and the SST trend in the tropical Pacific. The tropical SST change in the recent two decades, with a warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific, which is reproduced well by the forecast system, provides a large contribution to the skill of SAT in northwestern China. Additionally, the interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific gives rise to the reliable prediction of SAT around the Tibetan Plateau. It modulates convection around the Maritime Continent and further modulates the variation of SAT on the Tibetan Plateau via the surrounding circulation. This process is evident irrespective of detrending both in observations and the model predictions, and acts as a source of skill in predictions for the Tibetan Plateau. The predictability and reliability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for climate services providing early warning of extreme climate events and could imply useful economic benefits.展开更多
The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown th...The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown that deep learning methods possess a certain level of superiority in predicting ENSO indices.The present study develops a deep learning model for predicting the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in the equatorial Pacific by training a convolutional neural network(CNN)model with historical simulations from CMIP6 models.Compared with dynamical models,the CNN model has higher skill in predicting the SSTAs in the equatorial western-central Pacific,but not in the eastern Pacific.The CNN model can successfully capture the small-scale precursors in the initial SSTAs for the development of central Pacific ENSO to distinguish the spatial mode up to a lead time of seven months.A fusion model combining the predictions of the CNN model and the dynamical models achieves higher skill than each of them for both central and eastern Pacific ENSO.展开更多
The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the thermal state over the warm pool (WP) is examined in this paper. The results show...The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the thermal state over the warm pool (WP) is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years. The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.展开更多
Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four ...Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four categories: low level wind indices, upper zonal wind shear indices, east-west pressure contrast indices, and East Asian trough indices. The temporal/spatial performance and prediction potential of these indices are then analyzed for the 1957-2001 period. It reveals that on the decadal timescale, most indices except the east-west pressure contrast indices can well capture the continuous weakening of the EAWM around 1986. On the interannual timescale, the low level wind indices and East Asian trough indices have the best predictability based on knowledge of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, respectively. All the 18 existing indices can well describe the EAWM-related circulation, precipitation, and lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies. However, the variations of surface air temperature over large areas of central China cannot be well captured by most indices, which is possibly related to topographic effects. The results of this study may provide a possible reference for future studies of the EAWM.展开更多
Located in a monsoon domain,East Asia suffers devastating natural hazards induced by anomalous monsoon behaviors.East Asian monsoon(EAM)research has traditionally been a high priority for the Chinese climate community...Located in a monsoon domain,East Asia suffers devastating natural hazards induced by anomalous monsoon behaviors.East Asian monsoon(EAM)research has traditionally been a high priority for the Chinese climate community and is particularly challenging in a changing climate where the global mean temperature has been rising.Recent advances in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the EAM are reviewed in this paper,focusing on the interannual to interdecadal time scales.Some new results have been achieved in understanding the behaviors of the EAM,such as the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),including both its onset and withdrawal over the South China Sea,the changes in the northern boundary activity of the EASM,or the transitional climate zone in East Asia,and the cycle of the EASM and the East Asian winter monsoon and their linkages.In addition,understanding of the mechanism of the EAM variability has improved in several aspects,including the impacts of different types of ENSO on the EAM,the impacts from the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean,and the roles of mid-to high-latitude processes.Finally,some scientific issues regarding our understanding of the EAM are proposed for future investigation.展开更多
The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in S...The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in storm rainfall during these two periods are investigated here. The results reveal a significant out-of-phase correlation between the frontal and monsoon storm rainfall, especially on the inter-decadal timescale, the physical mechanism for which requires further investigation.展开更多
An interdecadal shift in the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is identified during the late 1990 s by using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis dataset. The...An interdecadal shift in the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is identified during the late 1990 s by using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis dataset. The mean onset date was brought forward by two pentads during 1999–2013 compared to that during 1979–1998. The large-scale atmospheric and oceanic change associated with this shift exhibits a significant interdecadal variation signal around 1998/1999, indicating that the shift during the late 1990 s is robust. Different from the well-known mid-1990 s shift, this shift carried more important systematical significance. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the earlier outbreak of the SCSSM was due to the interdecadal warming of the warm pool, which brought stronger convection anomalies and led to a weak western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) during boreal spring(March–May). The earlier retreat of the WPSH was a direct cause of this shift.展开更多
To improve the land surface simulation in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China, the observational data from two field experiments in Dunhuang and Tongyu are used to optimize the parameters in the land surfac...To improve the land surface simulation in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China, the observational data from two field experiments in Dunhuang and Tongyu are used to optimize the parameters in the land surface model, BATS, through calibration with the multicriteria method. Sensitivity analysis to the parameters in Dunhuang and Tongyu indicates that different parameters need to be calibrated in two sites with different environmental and climate regimes. Comparison of observed sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and ground surface temperature with the simulated ones shows the simulations with the optimized parameters have been substantially improved. Especially, the holistic simulations with the calibration of the parameter values are much closer to the observations in the arid region (Dunhuang), and the energy partition with the calibrated parameters can also be simulated well in the semi-arid region (Tongyu). Whole results demonstrate that the parameter calibration of the land surface model is important when the model is to be used to investigate the land-air interaction.展开更多
The variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can be divided into an ENSO-related part (EAWMEN) and an ENSO-unrelated part (EAWMres).The influence of EAWMres on the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon (EAS...The variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can be divided into an ENSO-related part (EAWMEN) and an ENSO-unrelated part (EAWMres).The influence of EAWMres on the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) relationship in the decaying stages of ENSO is investigated in the present study.To achieve this,ENSO is divided into four groups based on the EAWMres:(1) weak EAWMres-E1Ni(n)o (WEAWMres-EN); (2) strong EAWMres-E1Ni(n)o (SEAWMresEN); (3) weak EAWMres-La Ni(n)a (WEAWMres-LN); (4) strong EAWMres-La Ni(n)a (SEAWMres-LN).Composite results demonstrate that the EAWMres may enhance the atmospheric responses over East Asia to ENSO for WEAWMres-EN and SEAWMres-LN.The corresponding low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) associated with El Ni(n)o (La Ni(n)a) tend to be strong.Importantly,this feature may persist into the following summer,causing abundant rainfall in northern China for WEAWMres-EN cases and in southwestern China for SEAWMres-LN cases.In contrast,for the SEAWMres-EN and WEAWMres-LN groups,the EAWMres tends to weaken the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with E1 Ni(n)o or La Ni(n)a.In these cases,the anomalous WNP anticyclone or cyclone tend to be reduced and confined to lower latitudes,which results in deficient summer rainfall in northern China for SEAWMres-EN and in southwestern China for WEAWMres-LN.Further study suggests that anomalous EAWMres may have an effect on the extra-tropical sea surface temperature anomaly,which persists into the ensuing summer and may interfere with the influences of ENSO.展开更多
The interannual variation of the East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet (EAJ) significantly affects East Asian climate in summer. Identifying its performance in model prediction may provide us another viewpoint,...The interannual variation of the East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet (EAJ) significantly affects East Asian climate in summer. Identifying its performance in model prediction may provide us another viewpoint, from the perspective of uppertropospheric circulation, to understand the predictability of summer climate anomalies in East Asia. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of year-to-year variability of the EAJ based on retrospective seasonal forecasts, initiated from 1 May, in the five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES during 1960-2005. It is found that the coupled models show certain capability in describing the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ, which reflects the models' performance in the first leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode. This capability is mainly shown over the region south of the EAJ axis. Additionally, the models generally capture well the main features of atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies related to the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ. Further analysis suggests that the predicted warm SST anomalies in the concurrent summer over the tropical eastern Pacific and northern Indian Ocean are the two main sources of the potential prediction skill of the southward shift of the EAJ. In contrast, the models are powerless in describing the variation over the region north of the EAJ axis, associated with the meridional displacement, and interannual intensity change of the EAJ, the second leading EOF mode, meaning it still remains a challenge to better predict the EAJ and, subsequently, summer climate in East Asia, using current coupled models.展开更多
Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s. The projected chang...Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s. The projected changes of EAWM in climatology, seasonality, and interannual variability are reported here; the projections indicated strong warming in winter season. Warming increased with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 3°C in the Representative Concentration Pathways simulation RCP4.5 projection (an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 in 2100) and from 4° to 9°C in the RCP8.5 projection (an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of8.5 W m-2 in 2100). The northerly wind along the East Asian coastal region became stronger in both scenarios, indicating a stronger EAWM. Accordingly, interannual variability (described by the standard deviation of temperature) increased around the South China Sea and lower latitudes and decreased over eastern China, especially in North China. The two EAWM basic modes, defined by the temperature EOF analysis over East Asia, were associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and stratospheric polar vortex. The future projections revealed more total variance attributable to the secondary mode, suggesting additional influences from the stratosphere. The correlation between AO and the leading mode decreased, while the correlation between AO and the secondary mode increased, implying increased complexity regarding the predictability of EAWM interannual variations in future projections.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos.2012CB955604 and 2014CB953903)the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant No.41375112)
文摘This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model (ICM)--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific (EA-WNP) climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of E1 Nifio as one of the most important factors on EA-WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA-WNP climate E1 Nifio and the East Asia-Pacific Pattern--are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated E1 Nifio has significant impact on EA-WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA-WNP climate.
基金study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42230605 and 41721004).
文摘Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.
基金supported by the UK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
文摘Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating impacts.Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern China.This paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six months.The skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently significant.However,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño events.The potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.
基金This paper was supported by the "National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences" under Grant No. G2006CB403600Knowledge Innovation for the 3rd Period,Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No. KZCX2-YW-220the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40730952, 40575026, 40775051 respectively.
文摘Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.
基金supported jointly by the National Basic Research Program of China 973 Projects (Grant No. 2010CB950403)the National Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201006021)+1 种基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No. KZCX2-EW-QN204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40975046)
文摘Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB428603)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No. 41025017)+1 种基金support of the research fellowships of NSFCthe Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Over the tropics, convection, wind shear (i.e., vertical and horizontal shear of wind and/or geostrophic adjustment comprising spontaneous imbalance in jet streams) and topography are the major sources for the generation of gravity waves. During the summer monsoon season (June August) over the Indian subcontinent, convection and wind shear coexist. To determine the dominant source of gravity waves during monsoon season, an experiment was conducted using mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) radar situated at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), a tropical observatory in the southern part of the Indian subcontinent. MST radar was operated continuously for 72 h to capture high-frequency gravity waves. During this time, a radiosonde was released every 6 h in addition to the regular launch (once daily to study low-frequency gravity waves) throughout the season. These two data sets were utilized effectively to characterize the jet stream and the associated gravity waves. Data available from collocated instruments along with satellite-based brightness temperature (TBB) data were utilized to characterize the convection in and around Gadanki. Despite the presence of two major sources of gravity wave generation (i.e., convection and wind shear) during the monsoon season, wind shear (both vertical shear and geostrophic adjustment) contributed the most to the generation of gravity waves on various scales.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42150204 and 42288101)the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program(Grant No.XDA19070403)。
文摘In this paper,we first review the research advancements in blocking dynamics and highlight the merits and drawbacks of the previous theories of atmospheric blocking.Then,the dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric blocking are presented based on a nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model.Previous studies suggested that the eddy deformation(e.g.,eddy straining,wave breaking,and eddy merging)might lead to the formation and maintenance of atmospheric blocking.However,the results were speculative and problematic because the previous studies,based on the time-mean eddy-mean flow interaction model,cannot identify the causal relationship between the evolution of atmospheric blocking and the eddy deformation.Based on the NMI model,we indicate that the onset,growth,maintenance,and decay of atmospheric blocking is mainly produced by the spatiotemporal evolution of pre-existing upstream synoptic-scale eddies,whereas the eddy deformation is a concomitant phenomenon of the blocking formation.The lifetime of blocking is mainly determined by the meridional background potential vorticity gradient(PVy)because a small PVyfavors weak energy dispersion and strong nonlinearity to sustain the blocking.But the zonal movement of atmospheric blocking is associated with the background westerly wind,PVy,and the blocking amplitude.Using this NMI model,a bridge from the climate change to sub-seasonal atmospheric blocking and weather extremes might be established via examining the effect of climate change on PVy.Thus,it is expected that using the NMI model to explore the dynamics of atmospheric blocking and its change is a new direction in the future.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0600603)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U1502233,41320104007 and 41775083)supported by the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
文摘Variations of surface air temperature (SAT) are key in affecting the hydrological cycle, ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill and reliability of SAT in western China, using the GloSea5 operational forecast system from the UK Met Office. Useful predictions are demonstrated, with considerable skill over most regions of western China. The temporal correlation coefficients of SAT between model predictions and observations axe larger than 0.6, in both northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau. There are two important sources of skill for these predictions in western China: interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific and the SST trend in the tropical Pacific. The tropical SST change in the recent two decades, with a warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific, which is reproduced well by the forecast system, provides a large contribution to the skill of SAT in northwestern China. Additionally, the interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific gives rise to the reliable prediction of SAT around the Tibetan Plateau. It modulates convection around the Maritime Continent and further modulates the variation of SAT on the Tibetan Plateau via the surrounding circulation. This process is evident irrespective of detrending both in observations and the model predictions, and acts as a source of skill in predictions for the Tibetan Plateau. The predictability and reliability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for climate services providing early warning of extreme climate events and could imply useful economic benefits.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2019YFA0606703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41975116)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.Y202025)。
文摘The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown that deep learning methods possess a certain level of superiority in predicting ENSO indices.The present study develops a deep learning model for predicting the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in the equatorial Pacific by training a convolutional neural network(CNN)model with historical simulations from CMIP6 models.Compared with dynamical models,the CNN model has higher skill in predicting the SSTAs in the equatorial western-central Pacific,but not in the eastern Pacific.The CNN model can successfully capture the small-scale precursors in the initial SSTAs for the development of central Pacific ENSO to distinguish the spatial mode up to a lead time of seven months.A fusion model combining the predictions of the CNN model and the dynamical models achieves higher skill than each of them for both central and eastern Pacific ENSO.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42105063]the Youth Training Project of the Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions[project number CAMT-202302]a funded project of Hengyang Normal University[project number 2022QD11].
基金The study was jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA20060502]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41425086,41661144016,and 41706026]the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences[project number LTO1704].
基金This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40730952) Project KZCX2-YW-220, Program of Knowledge Innovation for the 3rd Period, Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe Project G2006CB403600, the "National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences", respectively.
文摘The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the thermal state over the warm pool (WP) is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years. The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.
基金supported jointly by the National Basic Research Program of China(2009CB421405)the National Key Technology R&D Program of China (2008BAK50B02)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40905026 and 40775035)Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry, SOA (GCMAC0901)
文摘Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four categories: low level wind indices, upper zonal wind shear indices, east-west pressure contrast indices, and East Asian trough indices. The temporal/spatial performance and prediction potential of these indices are then analyzed for the 1957-2001 period. It reveals that on the decadal timescale, most indices except the east-west pressure contrast indices can well capture the continuous weakening of the EAWM around 1986. On the interannual timescale, the low level wind indices and East Asian trough indices have the best predictability based on knowledge of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, respectively. All the 18 existing indices can well describe the EAWM-related circulation, precipitation, and lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies. However, the variations of surface air temperature over large areas of central China cannot be well captured by most indices, which is possibly related to topographic effects. The results of this study may provide a possible reference for future studies of the EAWM.
基金supported jointly by the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2016YFA0600604)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41721004)+1 种基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences(Grant No.QYZDY-SSW-DQC024)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘Located in a monsoon domain,East Asia suffers devastating natural hazards induced by anomalous monsoon behaviors.East Asian monsoon(EAM)research has traditionally been a high priority for the Chinese climate community and is particularly challenging in a changing climate where the global mean temperature has been rising.Recent advances in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the EAM are reviewed in this paper,focusing on the interannual to interdecadal time scales.Some new results have been achieved in understanding the behaviors of the EAM,such as the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),including both its onset and withdrawal over the South China Sea,the changes in the northern boundary activity of the EASM,or the transitional climate zone in East Asia,and the cycle of the EASM and the East Asian winter monsoon and their linkages.In addition,understanding of the mechanism of the EAM variability has improved in several aspects,including the impacts of different types of ENSO on the EAM,the impacts from the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean,and the roles of mid-to high-latitude processes.Finally,some scientific issues regarding our understanding of the EAM are proposed for future investigation.
基金supported jointly by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(Grant No.2008BAK50B02)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2009CB421405)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40730952)
文摘The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in storm rainfall during these two periods are investigated here. The results reveal a significant out-of-phase correlation between the frontal and monsoon storm rainfall, especially on the inter-decadal timescale, the physical mechanism for which requires further investigation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41461164005,41375065,and 41230527)
文摘An interdecadal shift in the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is identified during the late 1990 s by using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis dataset. The mean onset date was brought forward by two pentads during 1999–2013 compared to that during 1979–1998. The large-scale atmospheric and oceanic change associated with this shift exhibits a significant interdecadal variation signal around 1998/1999, indicating that the shift during the late 1990 s is robust. Different from the well-known mid-1990 s shift, this shift carried more important systematical significance. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the earlier outbreak of the SCSSM was due to the interdecadal warming of the warm pool, which brought stronger convection anomalies and led to a weak western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) during boreal spring(March–May). The earlier retreat of the WPSH was a direct cause of this shift.
基金supported jointlyby the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant KZCX2-YW-220the National Basic Research Program of Chinaunder Grant 2009CB421405the National Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China under Grant No.40730952
文摘To improve the land surface simulation in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China, the observational data from two field experiments in Dunhuang and Tongyu are used to optimize the parameters in the land surface model, BATS, through calibration with the multicriteria method. Sensitivity analysis to the parameters in Dunhuang and Tongyu indicates that different parameters need to be calibrated in two sites with different environmental and climate regimes. Comparison of observed sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and ground surface temperature with the simulated ones shows the simulations with the optimized parameters have been substantially improved. Especially, the holistic simulations with the calibration of the parameter values are much closer to the observations in the arid region (Dunhuang), and the energy partition with the calibrated parameters can also be simulated well in the semi-arid region (Tongyu). Whole results demonstrate that the parameter calibration of the land surface model is important when the model is to be used to investigate the land-air interaction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41025017, 41230527 and 41205047)
文摘The variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can be divided into an ENSO-related part (EAWMEN) and an ENSO-unrelated part (EAWMres).The influence of EAWMres on the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) relationship in the decaying stages of ENSO is investigated in the present study.To achieve this,ENSO is divided into four groups based on the EAWMres:(1) weak EAWMres-E1Ni(n)o (WEAWMres-EN); (2) strong EAWMres-E1Ni(n)o (SEAWMresEN); (3) weak EAWMres-La Ni(n)a (WEAWMres-LN); (4) strong EAWMres-La Ni(n)a (SEAWMres-LN).Composite results demonstrate that the EAWMres may enhance the atmospheric responses over East Asia to ENSO for WEAWMres-EN and SEAWMres-LN.The corresponding low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) associated with El Ni(n)o (La Ni(n)a) tend to be strong.Importantly,this feature may persist into the following summer,causing abundant rainfall in northern China for WEAWMres-EN cases and in southwestern China for SEAWMres-LN cases.In contrast,for the SEAWMres-EN and WEAWMres-LN groups,the EAWMres tends to weaken the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with E1 Ni(n)o or La Ni(n)a.In these cases,the anomalous WNP anticyclone or cyclone tend to be reduced and confined to lower latitudes,which results in deficient summer rainfall in northern China for SEAWMres-EN and in southwestern China for WEAWMres-LN.Further study suggests that anomalous EAWMres may have an effect on the extra-tropical sea surface temperature anomaly,which persists into the ensuing summer and may interfere with the influences of ENSO.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41375086,41320104007 and 41305067)
文摘The interannual variation of the East Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet (EAJ) significantly affects East Asian climate in summer. Identifying its performance in model prediction may provide us another viewpoint, from the perspective of uppertropospheric circulation, to understand the predictability of summer climate anomalies in East Asia. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of year-to-year variability of the EAJ based on retrospective seasonal forecasts, initiated from 1 May, in the five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES during 1960-2005. It is found that the coupled models show certain capability in describing the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ, which reflects the models' performance in the first leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode. This capability is mainly shown over the region south of the EAJ axis. Additionally, the models generally capture well the main features of atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies related to the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJ. Further analysis suggests that the predicted warm SST anomalies in the concurrent summer over the tropical eastern Pacific and northern Indian Ocean are the two main sources of the potential prediction skill of the southward shift of the EAJ. In contrast, the models are powerless in describing the variation over the region north of the EAJ axis, associated with the meridional displacement, and interannual intensity change of the EAJ, the second leading EOF mode, meaning it still remains a challenge to better predict the EAJ and, subsequently, summer climate in East Asia, using current coupled models.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(Grant Nos.2010CB428603 and 2012CB417203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41175041)
文摘Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s. The projected changes of EAWM in climatology, seasonality, and interannual variability are reported here; the projections indicated strong warming in winter season. Warming increased with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 3°C in the Representative Concentration Pathways simulation RCP4.5 projection (an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 in 2100) and from 4° to 9°C in the RCP8.5 projection (an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of8.5 W m-2 in 2100). The northerly wind along the East Asian coastal region became stronger in both scenarios, indicating a stronger EAWM. Accordingly, interannual variability (described by the standard deviation of temperature) increased around the South China Sea and lower latitudes and decreased over eastern China, especially in North China. The two EAWM basic modes, defined by the temperature EOF analysis over East Asia, were associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and stratospheric polar vortex. The future projections revealed more total variance attributable to the secondary mode, suggesting additional influences from the stratosphere. The correlation between AO and the leading mode decreased, while the correlation between AO and the secondary mode increased, implying increased complexity regarding the predictability of EAWM interannual variations in future projections.