Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional...Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model),basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County,Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety(FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides.展开更多
The estimation of shear strength of rock mass discontinuity is always a focal, but difficult, problem in the field of geotechnical engineering. Considering the disadvantages and limitation of exist- ing estimation met...The estimation of shear strength of rock mass discontinuity is always a focal, but difficult, problem in the field of geotechnical engineering. Considering the disadvantages and limitation of exist- ing estimation methods, a new approach based on the shadow area percentage （SAP） that can be used to quantify surface roughness is proposed in this article. Firstly, by the help of laser scanning technique, the three-dimensional model of the surface of rock discontinuity was established. Secondly, a light source was simulated, and there would be some shadows produced on the model surface. Thirdly, to obtain the value of SAP of each specimen, the shadow detection technique was introduced for use. Fourthly, compared with the result from direct shear testing and based on statistics, an empirical for- mula was found among SAP, normal stress, and shear strength. Data of Yujian （~ River were used as an example, and the following conclusions have been made. （1） In the case of equal normal stress, the peak shear stress is positively proportional to the SAP. （2） The formula for estimating was derived, and the predictions of peak-shear strength made with this equation well agreed with the experimental re- suits obtained in laboratory tests.展开更多
基金supported by The National Basic Research Program of China(973)(Grant No.2013CB430106)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375108)Scientific Research&Innovation Projects for Academic Degree students of ordinary Universities of Jiangsu(Grant No.CXLX13_474)
文摘Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model),basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County,Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety(FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides.
基金supported by the China Geological Survey (No.1212011014030)the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) (No.2011CB710600)
文摘The estimation of shear strength of rock mass discontinuity is always a focal, but difficult, problem in the field of geotechnical engineering. Considering the disadvantages and limitation of exist- ing estimation methods, a new approach based on the shadow area percentage （SAP） that can be used to quantify surface roughness is proposed in this article. Firstly, by the help of laser scanning technique, the three-dimensional model of the surface of rock discontinuity was established. Secondly, a light source was simulated, and there would be some shadows produced on the model surface. Thirdly, to obtain the value of SAP of each specimen, the shadow detection technique was introduced for use. Fourthly, compared with the result from direct shear testing and based on statistics, an empirical for- mula was found among SAP, normal stress, and shear strength. Data of Yujian （~ River were used as an example, and the following conclusions have been made. （1） In the case of equal normal stress, the peak shear stress is positively proportional to the SAP. （2） The formula for estimating was derived, and the predictions of peak-shear strength made with this equation well agreed with the experimental re- suits obtained in laboratory tests.
