The seismicity research in the sub-regions of Chinese mainland using strain accumula-ting and releasing model

The sub-regions are divided for the seismicity of the Chinese mainland based on the hypothesis of the active crustal blocks and the division of the active boundaries. On this result, the seismicity of each active crustal blocks are studied by calculating the accumulated and released strain of the earthquakes based on strain accumulating and releasing model, and the different seismicity stages of the sub-regions are discussed basically. Finally we have discussed the premise of the model application and the potential problems of the model results.

Multifractal characteristics of general stress release (GSR) of earthquakes

Using multifractal spectrum estimating method based on the wavelet, the multifractal characteristics of GSR of earthquakes in China, Japan and New Zealand regions have been studied. It is shown that the multifractal spectra of GSR are obviously different in inter- and intra- plate regions. Moreover, though Japan and New Zealand are all located at the boundary of plates, West and East China are all characterized of continental tectonic structure, the multifractal spectra of GSR for both the two regions are also different. Further analysis shows that the natures of multifractal spectra of GSR are somehow related to the complexity of tectonics.

Systematic Analysis Method of Shear-Wave Splitting:SAM Software System

In order to make a more effective use of the data from regional digital seismograph networks and to promote the study on shear wave splitting and its application to earthquake stress-forecasting, SAM software system, i.e., the software on systematic analysis method of shear wave splitting has been developed. This paper introduces the design aims, system structure, function and characteristics about the SAM software system and shows some graphical interfaces of data input and result output. Lastly, it discusses preliminarily the study of shear wave splitting and its application to earthquake forecasting.

Effect of Aftershocks on Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Hebei Seismic Zone,China

In this paper, the earthquake hazard parameters (λ m,b and M max) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation. The declustered catalogues have been compiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period. As an example, Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966 to 1976. The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λ m,b is significant. The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period, at most, 45% and 90%, respectively. But the difference in M max is smaller. Based on this, the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made, but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research.

The Deformation of Active Tectonic Blocks on the Chinese Mainland and Its Relationship with Seismic Activity

Based on the hypothesis of the active tectonic blocks on the Chinese continent and its adjacent regions (both the method of the DDA on a spherical surface and the GPS survey results observed from 1991 to 2001 are used), the movements and deformations of each active tectonic block are calculated. The calculation results show that although the movements and deformations of active tectonic blocks in the eastern region and in the western region of China are different, active tectonic blocks in the same active tectonic block region are coherent. Then, the relative velocities of the active tectonic blocks’ boundary zones are calculated, and the relationship between current crustal motion and strong seismic activities is discussed. Earthquakes ( M S≥7 0) on the Chinese continent since 1988 all occurred on boundary zones of active tectonic blocks with high slipping speed.

Study of Triggering Action Between the Mani (M_S7.9) and the West Kunlun Mountains Pass (M_S8.1) Great Earthquakes and Their Dynamic Background

Based on Coulomb static stress variation, the stress trigging action of the Mani ( M S 7 9, Nov. 1997) earthquake on the West Kunlun Mountains Pass ( M S 8 1, Nov. 2001) earthquake is researched. Results of different source mechanism resolutions show that a 10 -3 MPa Coulomb stress due to the Mani earthquake was added to the fracture fault of the Kunlun earthquake, and this may shift the broken date to about 10 years earlier, and infer that the stress level in the crust is not low. Comparing the relationship between strong earthquake strength and frequency and earth rotation change, it is shown that the strength’s decrease and the variation period’s shortening of earth rotation are important controlling factors on strong earthquake activity. This great event with M S =8 1 took place probably due to a gradual strengthening background of regional stress field within the Qinghai_Xizang block in the period of acceleration of change of day’s length and stress triggering from the Mani earthquake.

Centroid Depth Versus Hypocentral Depth: Their Distribution and Depth/Mechanism Dependence

The Harvard Global CMT catalogue from 1977 to 1998 is analyzed to investigate the relation between the centroid depth and the hypocentral depth. It is observed that for shallow earthquakes, the hypocentral depth is systematically larger than the centroid depth, while for deep_focus earthquakes there is no statistically significant difference between the distributions of centroid and hypocentral depth. A detailed look at the result reveals that such a systematic difference is mainly from the contribution of thrust and normal earthquakes, while strike_slip earthquakes have no such regularity. It turns out that for shallow thrust and normal earthquakes, seismic rupture tends to initiate from the deeper part.

Experimental Research on the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory

Implementing acoustic emission experiments with large rock samples, LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) theory was studied. The loading conditions in the experiments were designed to simulate the complicated loading process of underground rocks. The damages emerging inside the rock samples were recorded by the acoustic emission technique during the loading process. The experimental results were consistent with prediction by LURR theory. Integrating the changing processes of LURR value Y and the location process of acoustic emission events showed agreement between the variation of LURR value Y and the damage evolution inside the rocks. Furthermore, the high value of Y emerged before the complete breakdown of materials. Therefore, the damage evolution of rock specimen can be quantitatively analyzed with LURR theory, thus the failure of the rock materials and the earthquake occurrence may be predicted. The experimental results gave a further verification of LURR theory.

The experimental studies on electrical con-ductivities and P-wave velocities of anortho-site at high pressure and high temperature

Results of P-wave velocity (vP) and electrical conductivity measurements on anorthosite are presented from room temperature to 880 C at 1.0 GPa using ultrasonic transmission technique and impedance spectra technique respec-tively. The experiments show that the P-wave velocities in anorthosite decrease markedly above 680 C following the dehydration of hydrous minerals in the rock, and the complex impedances collected from 12 Hz to 105 Hz only indicate the grain interior conduction mechanism at 1.0 GPa, from 410 C to 750 C. Because the fluids in the rock have not formed an interconnected network, the dehydration will not pronouncedly enhance the electrical conduc-tivity and change the electrical conduction mechanism. It is concluded that the formation and evolution of the low-velocity zones and high-conductivity layers in the crust may have no correlations, and the dehydration can result in the formation of the low-velocity zones, but cannot simultaneously result in the high-conductivity layers.

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of M_S=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of MS=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is lo-cated at 36.2N and 90.9E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of MS=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of MS=8.1 involves in the lar-ger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and fore-casting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.

A FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR SEISMICITY INDUCED BY FAULT INTERACTION

On ths basis of interaction between faults, a finite element model for Southwest China is constructed,and the stress adjustment due to the strong earthquake occurrence in this region was studied. The preliminary results show that many strong earthquakes occurred in the area of increased stress in the model. Though the results are preliminary, the quasi 3D finite element model is meaningful for strong earthquake prediction.

An analysis on short-wave components of the global stress field

The 10 920 stress indicators collected so far by the WSM (World Stress Map) project represent the observed ori-entations of the maximum horizontal principal stress (sHmax) in a certain region. Assuming that the long-wave component of sHmax is expressed by the absolute direction of plate motions, we can get the relative orientation and the magnitude of the short-wave component resulted from the local tectonic process or other factors with vector analytical technique. The global surface was divided into basic element bins by 2.52.5 dimensions and the WSM indicators were statistically analyzed for each element by weight coefficient method in order to determine the mean orientation of the stress. We calculated the long-wave component of the global stress field using HS2-NUVEL1 model. The relative magnitude or the direction limitation of short-wave component, which reflect the local contribution to the observed stresses, was determined by the angle between the mean sHmax and the orien-tation of the long-wave component. The results of this paper show that the contribution of either the long-wave component or the short-wave component is approximately equal to most of the global plates on the basis of the mean effect of the observed stresses. For some of continental regions, the local active tectonics plays an important role in the observed stresses and controls the generation and occurrence of earthquakes.

Characteristics of Geoelectric and Geomagnetic Data before Strong Earthquakes in the North China Region

The earth resistivity and geomagnetic observation data of the Z component from many stations in near-epicentral areas of strong earthquakes are combined and calculated by using a spatial linearity method and a new characteristic value, the spatial linearity a, describing the precursory field in near-epicentral area of strong earthquake, is obtained. The analysis and calculation results of geoelectric and geomagnetic observation data prior to 8 earthquakes with M≥5.5 occurring in the North China region show that a value near the epicentral area tendsto decrease significantly half a year before strong earthquakes.

The Relationship Between Strong Earthquake Activity of M_S≥7.0 on the Chinese Mainland and the West Kunlun-A'nyêmaqên Secondary Arcuate Tectonic Zone

The active and quiet phenomenon of moderate strong earthquakes one year before the earthquakes with M S≥7.0, the spatial distribution characteristics of the solid tide modulating and triggering earthquakes and the strong earthquake mechanisms on the Chinese continent have been studied. The secondary arcuate tectonic zone composed of the west Kunlun-Anyêmaqên faults is believed to be a very important boundary to characterize strong earthquake activity of M S≥7.0 on the Chinese continent, that is, a boundary between the seismically active region and the quiet region of moderately strong earthquakes one year before earthquakes with M S≥7.0, and a boundary of the spatial distributions between the solid tide modulating strong earthquakes (M S≥7.0) and the non-modulating ones. It might be related with the characteristics of spatial distribution of focal mechanism solutions of strong earthquakes on the Chinese Continent.

Disastrous Earthquake Cases in China and Disaster Information System Based on GIS

The China’s Earthquake Cases and Disaster Information System based on GIS (MapECDIS 2002 for Windows) is a GIS system developed to provide a tool for the government and the public to inquire and learn about disaster information (since 2221BC) and case study results (since 1966) of destructive earthquakes in China. The system is expected to be helpful, as an applied supplementary tool, for scientists and management personnel in earthquake prediction practice, seismological research and earthquake disaster research. The design idea and main functions of the system are introduced in the paper.

Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.

Main Factors Affecting the Distribution of the Macroscopic Destruction Field of Earthquake

It is proposed that some possible macroseismic epicenters can be determined quickly from the relationship that the microseismic epicenters located by instruments bear with faults. Based on these so-called macroseismic epicenters, we can make fast seismic hazard estimation after a shock by use of the empirical distribution model of seismic intensity. In comparison with the method that uses the microseismic epicenters directly, this approach can increase the precision of fast seismic hazard estimation. Statistical analysis of 133 main earthquakes in China was made. The result shows that the deviation distance between the microseismic epicenter and macroseismic epicenter falls within the range of 35 km for 88 % earthquakes of the total and within the range of 35 to 75 km for the remaining ones. Then, we can take the area that has the microseismic epicenter as its center and is 35 km in radius as the area for emphatic analysis, and take the area within 75 km around the microseismic epicenter as the area for general analysis. The relation between the 66 earthquake cases on the N-S Seismic Belt in China and the spatial distribution characteristics of faults and the results of focal mechanism solution were analyzed in detail. We know from the analysis that the error of instrumental epicenter determination is not the only factor that gives effects to the deviation of the macroseismic epicenter. In addition to it, the fault size, fault distribution, fault activity, fault intersection types, earthquake magnitude, etc. are also main affecting factors. By sorting out, processing and analyzing these affecting factors, the principle and procedures for quickly determining the possible position of the macroseismic epicenter were set up. Taking these as a basis and establishing a nationwide database of faults that contains relevant factors, it is possible to apply this method in practical fast estimation of seismic hazard.