Towards Increasing Data Availability for Meteorological Services: Inter-Comparison of Meteorological Data from a Synoptic Weather Station and Two Automatic Weather Stations in Kenya

Meteorological data is useful for varied applications and sectors ranging from weather and climate forecasting, landscape planning to disaster management among others. However, the availability of these data requires a good network of manual meteorological stations and other support systems for its collection, recording, processing, archiving, communication and dissemination. In sub-Saharan Africa, such networks are limited due to low investment and capacity. To bridge this gap, the National Meteorological Services in Kenya and few others from African countries have moved to install a number of Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) in the past decade including a few additions from private institutions and individuals. Although these AWSs have the potential to improve the existing observation network and the early warning systems in the region, the quality and capacity of the data collected from the stations are not well exploited. This is mainly due to low confidence, by data users, in electronically observed data. In this study, we set out to confirm that electronically observed data is of comparable quality to a human observer recorded data, and can thus be used to bridge data gaps at temporal and spatial scales. To assess this potential, we applied the simple Pearson correlation method and other statistical tests and approaches by conducting inter-comparison analysis of weather observations from the manual synoptic station and data from two Automatic Weather Stations (TAHMO and 3D-PAWS) co-located at KMD Headquarters to establish existing consistencies and variances in several weather parameters. Results show there is comparable consistency in most of the weather parameters between the three stations. Strong associations were noted between the TAHMO and manual station data for minimum (r = 0.65) and maximum temperatures (r = 0.86) and the maximum temperature between TAHMO and 3DPAWS (r = 0.56). Similar associations were indicated for surface pressure (r = 0.99) and RH (r > 0.6) with the weakest correlations occurring in wind direction and speed. The Shapiro test for normality assumption indicated that the distribution of several parameters compared between the 3 stations were normally distributed (p > 0.05). We conclude that these findings can be used as a basis for wider use of data sets from Automatic Weather Stations in Kenya and elsewhere. This can inform various applications in weather and climate related decisions.

An application of artificial intelligence for investigating the effect of COVID-19 lockdown on three-dimensional temperature variation in equatorial Africa

We present interesting application of artificial intelligence for investigating effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on 3-dimensional temperature variation across Nigeria(2°-15°E,4°-14°N),in equatorial Africa.Artificial neural networks were trained to learn time-series temperature variation patterns using radio occultation measurements of atmospheric temperature from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere,and Climate(COSMIC).Data used for training,validation and testing of the neural networks covered period prior to the lockdown.There was also an investigation into the viability of solar activity indicator(represented by the sunspot number)as an input for the process.The results indicated that including the sunspot number as an input for the training did not improve the network prediction accuracy.The trained network was then used to predict values for the lockdown period.Since the network was trained using pre-lockdown dataset,predictions from the network are regarded as expected temperatures,should there have been no lockdown.By comparing with the actual COSMIC measurements during the lockdown period,effects of the lockdown on atmospheric temperatures were deduced.In overall,the mean altitudinal temperatures rose by about 1.1℃ above expected values during the lockdown.An altitudinal breakdown,at 1 km resolution,reveals that the values were typically below0.5℃ at most of the altitudes,but exceeded 1℃ at 28 and 29 km altitudes.The temperatures were also observed to drop below expected values at altitudes of 0-2 km,and 17-20 km.

Contrasting Regional Responses of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall to Exhausted Spring and Concurrently Emerging Summer El Nino Events

The inverse relationship between the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR)is well established.Yet,some El Nino events that occur in the early months of the year(boreal spring)transform into a neutral phase before the start of summer,whereas others begin in the boreal summer and persist in a positive phase throughout the summer monsoon season.This study investigates the distinct influences of an exhausted spring El Nino(springtime)and emerging summer El Nino(summertime)on the regional variability of ISMR.The two ENSO categories were formulated based on the time of occurrence of positive SST anomalies over the Nino-3.4 region in the Pacific.The ISMR’s dynamical and thermodynamical responses to such events were investigated using standard metrics such as the Walker and Hadley circulations,vertically integrated moisture flux convergence(VIMFC),wind shear,and upper atmospheric circulation.The monsoon circulation features are remarkably different in response to the exhausted spring El Nino and emerging summer El Nino phases,which distinctly dictate regional rainfall variability.The dynamic and thermodynamic responses reveal that exhausted spring El Nino events favor excess monsoon rainfall over eastern peninsular India and deficit rainfall over the core monsoon regions of central India.In contrast,emerging summer El Nino events negatively impact the seasonal rainfall over the country,except for a few regions along the west coast and northeast India.

THE INTERDECADAL VARIATION OF THE SOUTH ASIAN HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL REGIONS

This study aims to explore the interdecadal variation of South Asian High(SAH) and its relationship with SST(sea surface temperature) of the tropical and subtropical regions by using the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1948 to 2012, based on the NCAR CAM 3.0 general circulation model. The results show that: 1) the intensity of SAH represents a remarkable interdecadal variation characteristic, the intensity of SAH experienced from weak to strong at the late 1970 s, and after the late 1970 s, its strength is enhanced and the area is expanded in the east-west direction.The expansion degree is greater westward than eastward, while it is opposite in summer. 2) Corresponding to the interdecadal variation of SAH intensity, after the late 1970 s, the divergent component of wind field has two ascending and three descending areas. Of the two ascending areas, one is located in the East Pacific, the other location varies with the season from the Indian Ocean in winter to the South China Sea and West Pacific in summer. Three descending areas are located in the north-central Africa, the East Asia and the Middle Pacific region respectively. 3) Corresponding to the interdecadal variation of SAH intensity, the rotational component of wind field at the lower level is an anomalous cyclone over the South China Sea and West Pacific in summer, while in winter, it is an anomalous cyclone over the Indian Ocean, and an anomalous anticyclone over the equatorial Middle Pacific. 4) Numerical simulations show that the interdecadal variation of SAH is closely related to the SST of the tropical and subtropical regions. The SST of Indian Ocean plays an important role in winter, while in summer, the SST of the South China Sea and West Pacific plays an important role, and the SST of the East Pacific also plays a certain role.

Comparative Accuracy Assessment of Combined MODIS and NAAPS Aerosol Optical Depth with AERONET Data over North Africa

Aerosol is one of the important geophysical parameters that determine the earth’s radiation budget, energy balance and hydrological cycle. The “Deep Blue” Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm was designed to complement existing “Dark Target” Ocean and Land algorithms to be able to retrieve AOD over bright land surface. Using level 2 AOD data from five Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations over the study location of North Africa (0°S - 40°N, 30°W - 60°E), comparative accuracy assessments are made for combined MODIS AOD aboard Terra and Aqua satellites and US Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) forecast AOD data. The aerosol transport and vertical mixing over the region are investigated at different altitudes up to 3000 m above ground level using Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT). The MODIS validation result shows highest correlation in the Sub-Sahel (0.811) followed by Sahel (0.726) and then Sahara region (0.662). Furthermore, the combined retrieval algorithm of Terra and Aqua MODIS shows statistically significant discrepancies from AERONET AOD values in term of mean, t-test value, index of agreement and fractional error. The comparison of NAAPS predicted soil dust to AERONET AOD fared best in December to February (DJF) season for the Sahel region and June to August (JJA) season for the Sahara when the dust emission and transport are at the peak. However, median ratios of NAAPS to AERONET AOD indicated bias in some island sites in the Atlantic Ocean which may be due to the presence of sea salt over the site. The analysis carried out in this study reveals that both MODIS retrieval algorithm and NAAPS model could be improved by incorporating some local aerosol sources from the study area.

Roles of SO_2 oxidation in new particle formation events

The oxidation of SO2 is commonly regarded as a major driver for new particle formation（NPF） in the atmosphere. In this study, we explored the connection between measured mixing ratio of SO2 and observed long-term（duration 〉 3 hr） and short-term（duration〈 1.5 hr） NPF events at a semi-urban site in Toronto. Apparent NPF rates（J30） showed a moderate correlation with the concentration of sulfuric acid（[H2SO4]） calculated from the measured mixing ratio of SO2 in long-term NPF events and some short-term NPF events（Category I）（R^2= 0.66）. The exponent in the fitting line of J30~ [H2SO4]nin these events was1.6. It was also found that SO2 mixing ratios varied a lot during long-term NPF events,leading to a significant variation of new particle counts. In the SO2-unexplained short-term NPF events（Category II）, analysis showed that new particles were formed aloft and then mixed down to the ground level. Further calculation results showed that sulfuric acid oxidized from SO2 probably made a negligible contribution to the growth of 〉 10 nm new particles.

A review of halogenated natural products in Arctic,Subarctic and Nordic ecosystems

Halogenated natural products(HNPs)are organic compounds containing bromine,chlorine,iodine,and rarely fluorine.HNPs comprise many classes of compounds,ranging in complexity from halocarbons to higher molecular weight compounds,which often contain oxygen and/or nitrogen atoms in addition to halogens.Many HNPs are biosynthesized by marine bacteria,macroalgae,phytoplankton,tunicates,corals,worms,sponges and other invertebrates.This paper reviews HNPs in Arctic,Subarctic and Nordic ecosystems and is based on sections of Chapter 2.16 in the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program(AMAP)assessment Chemicals of Emerging Arctic Concern(AMAP,2017)which deal with the higher molecular weight HNPs.Material is updated and expanded to include more Nordic examples.Much of the chapter is devoted to“bromophenolic”HNPs,viz bromophenols(BPs)and transformation products bromoanisoles(BAs),hydroxylated and methoxylated bromodiphenyl ethers(OH-BDEs,MeO-BDEs)and polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins(PBDDs),since these HNPs are most frequently reported.Others discussed are 2,20-dimethoxy-3,30,5,50-tetrabromobiphenyl(2,20-dimethoxy-BB80),polyhalogenated 10-methyl-1,20-bipyrroles(PMBPs),polyhalogenated 1,10-dimethyl-2,20-bipyrroles(PDBPs),polyhalogenated N-methylpyrroles(PMPs),polyhalogenated N-methylindoles(PMIs),bromoheptyl-and bromooctyl pyrroles,(1R,2S,4R,5R,10E)-2-bromo-1-bromomethyl-1,4-dichloro-5-(20-chloroethenyl)-5-methylcyclohexane(mixed halogenated compound MHC-1),polybrominated hexahydroxanthene derivatives(PBHDs)and polyhalogenated carbazoles(PHCs).Aspects of HNPs covered are physicochemical properties,sources and production,transformation processes,concentrations and trends in the physical environment and biota(marine and freshwater).Toxic properties of some HNPs and a discussion of how climate change might affect HNPs production and distribution are also included.The review concludes with a summary of research needs to better understand the role of HNPs as“chemicals of emerging Arctic concern”.