In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic.This report summarizes the rich discussion...In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic.This report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the workshop.The workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data,social media,and wastewater monitoring.Significant advancements were noted in the development of predictive models,with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease trends.The role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed,advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic.A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing,which is crucial for global pandemic preparedness.Overall,the workshop underscored the need for robust,adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors,as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.展开更多
A stochastic individual based model,SCHISTOX,has been developed for the study of schistosome transmission dynamics and the impact of control by mass drug administration.More novel aspects that can be investigated incl...A stochastic individual based model,SCHISTOX,has been developed for the study of schistosome transmission dynamics and the impact of control by mass drug administration.More novel aspects that can be investigated include individual level adherence and access to treatment,multiple communities,human sex population dynamics,and implementation of a potential vaccine.Many of the model parameters have been estimated within previous studies and have been shown to vary between communities,such as the age-specific contact rates governing the age profiles of infection.However,uncertainty remains as there are wide ranges for certain parameter values and a few remain relatively unknown.We analyse the model dynamics by parameterizing it with published parameter values.We also discuss the development of SCHISTOX in the form of a publicly available open-source GitHub repository.The next key development stage involves validating the model by calibrating to epidemiological data.展开更多
We used reported behavioural data from cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women(MSM/TGW)in Bangalore,mainly collected from‘hot-spot’locations that attract MSM/TGW,to illustrate a technique to deal w...We used reported behavioural data from cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women(MSM/TGW)in Bangalore,mainly collected from‘hot-spot’locations that attract MSM/TGW,to illustrate a technique to deal with potential issues with the representativeness of this sample.A deterministic dynamic model of HIV transmission was developed,incorporating three subgroups of MSM/TGW,grouped according to their reported predominant sexual role(insertive,receptive or versatile).Using mathematical modelling and data triangulation for‘balancing’numbers of partners and role preferences,we compared three different approaches to determine if our technique could be useful for inferring characteristics of a more‘hidden’insertive MSM subpopulation,and explored their potential importance for the HIV epidemic.Projections for 2009 across all three approaches suggest that HIV prevalence among insertive MSM was likely to be less than half that recorded in the surveys(4.5e6.5%versus 13.1%),but that the relative size of this subgroup was over four times larger(61e69%of all MSM/TGW versus 15%).We infer that the insertive MSM accounted for 10e20%of all prevalent HIV infections among urban males aged 15e49.Mathematical modelling can be used with data on‘visible’MSM/TGW to provide insights into the characteristics of‘hidden’MSM.A greater understanding of the sexual behaviour of all MSM/TGW is important for effective HIV programming.More broadly,a hidden subgroup with a lower infectious disease prevalence than more visible subgroups,has the potential to contain more infections,if the hidden subgroup is considerably larger in size.展开更多
文摘In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic.This report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the workshop.The workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data,social media,and wastewater monitoring.Significant advancements were noted in the development of predictive models,with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease trends.The role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed,advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic.A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing,which is crucial for global pandemic preparedness.Overall,the workshop underscored the need for robust,adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors,as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.
基金All authors gratefully acknowledge funding of the NTD Modelling Consortium by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation[OPP1184344].
文摘A stochastic individual based model,SCHISTOX,has been developed for the study of schistosome transmission dynamics and the impact of control by mass drug administration.More novel aspects that can be investigated include individual level adherence and access to treatment,multiple communities,human sex population dynamics,and implementation of a potential vaccine.Many of the model parameters have been estimated within previous studies and have been shown to vary between communities,such as the age-specific contact rates governing the age profiles of infection.However,uncertainty remains as there are wide ranges for certain parameter values and a few remain relatively unknown.We analyse the model dynamics by parameterizing it with published parameter values.We also discuss the development of SCHISTOX in the form of a publicly available open-source GitHub repository.The next key development stage involves validating the model by calibrating to epidemiological data.
文摘We used reported behavioural data from cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women(MSM/TGW)in Bangalore,mainly collected from‘hot-spot’locations that attract MSM/TGW,to illustrate a technique to deal with potential issues with the representativeness of this sample.A deterministic dynamic model of HIV transmission was developed,incorporating three subgroups of MSM/TGW,grouped according to their reported predominant sexual role(insertive,receptive or versatile).Using mathematical modelling and data triangulation for‘balancing’numbers of partners and role preferences,we compared three different approaches to determine if our technique could be useful for inferring characteristics of a more‘hidden’insertive MSM subpopulation,and explored their potential importance for the HIV epidemic.Projections for 2009 across all three approaches suggest that HIV prevalence among insertive MSM was likely to be less than half that recorded in the surveys(4.5e6.5%versus 13.1%),but that the relative size of this subgroup was over four times larger(61e69%of all MSM/TGW versus 15%).We infer that the insertive MSM accounted for 10e20%of all prevalent HIV infections among urban males aged 15e49.Mathematical modelling can be used with data on‘visible’MSM/TGW to provide insights into the characteristics of‘hidden’MSM.A greater understanding of the sexual behaviour of all MSM/TGW is important for effective HIV programming.More broadly,a hidden subgroup with a lower infectious disease prevalence than more visible subgroups,has the potential to contain more infections,if the hidden subgroup is considerably larger in size.
