Evaluation of the Eta Simulations Nested in Three Global Climate Models

To provide long-term simulations of climate change at higher resolution, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are nested in global climate models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evaluate the Eta RCM simulations driven by three global models, the HadGEM2-ES, BESM, and MIROC5, for the present period, 1961-1990. The RCM domain covers South America, Central America, and Caribbean. These simulations will be used for assessment of climate change projections in the region. Maximum temperatures are generally underestimated in the domain, in particular by MIROC5 driven simulations, in summer and winter seasons. Larger spread among the simulations was found in the minimum temperatures, which showed mixed signs of errors. The spatial correlations of temperature simulations against the CRU observations show better agreement for the MIROC5 driven simulations. The nested simulations underestimate precipitation in large areas over the continent in austral summer, whereas in winter overestimate occurs in southern Amazonia, and underestimate in southern Brazil and eastern coast of Northeast Brazil. The annual cycle of the near-surface temperature is underestimated in all model simulations, in all regions in Brazil, and in most of the year. The temperature and precipitation frequency distributions reveal that the RCM and GCM simulations contain more extreme values than the CRU observations. Evaluations of the climatic extreme indicators show that in general hot days, warm nights, and heat waves are increasing in the period, in agreement with observations. The Eta simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES show wet trends in the period, whereas the Eta driven by BESM and by MIROC5 show trends for drier conditions.

What We Measure Matters:The Case of the Missing Development Data in Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Monitoring

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015−2030’s(SFDRR)framing moved away from disaster risk as a natural phenomenon to the examination of the inequality and injustice at the root of human vulnerability to hazards and disasters.Yet,its achievements have not seriously challenged the long-established capitalist systems of oppression that hinder the development leading to disaster risk creation.This article is an exploratory mapping exercise of and a collective reflection on Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)and SFDRR indicators-and their use in measuring progress towards disaster risk reduction(DRR).We highlight that despite the rhetoric of vulnerability,the measurement of progress towards DRR remains event/hazard-centric.We argue that the measurement of disaster risk could be greatly enhanced by the integration of development data in future iterations of global DRR frameworks for action.