The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, th...The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World WarII. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China wasthe first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, andto resume work and production. China’s economic recovery andreconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for theglobal economy. The content of this report mainly includes thefollowing two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend andrecovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of theepidemic;the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- tolong-term development. We focus on four issues: the progressand nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage;major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery inthe next stage;how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects;and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges,to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. Inview of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect ofChina’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forwardpolicy recommendations accordingly.展开更多
In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external ...In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external pressure it faces,and the supporting policies.Due to the economic recovery and the base effect,China’s real GDP growth rate is projected to reach above 8.0%in 2021,and the quarterly growth rate will drop from 18.3%in Q1 to 5.0%in Q4,showing a declining trend.Based on qualitative assessments and statistical forecasts,this report puts forward some policy suggestions.展开更多
基金This research is supported by Beijing Research Centre of the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era[Grant No.19LLLJA001].
文摘The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World WarII. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China wasthe first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, andto resume work and production. China’s economic recovery andreconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for theglobal economy. The content of this report mainly includes thefollowing two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend andrecovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of theepidemic;the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- tolong-term development. We focus on four issues: the progressand nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage;major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery inthe next stage;how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects;and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges,to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. Inview of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect ofChina’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forwardpolicy recommendations accordingly.
基金Beijing Research Centre of the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era[Grant No.19LLLJA001].
文摘In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external pressure it faces,and the supporting policies.Due to the economic recovery and the base effect,China’s real GDP growth rate is projected to reach above 8.0%in 2021,and the quarterly growth rate will drop from 18.3%in Q1 to 5.0%in Q4,showing a declining trend.Based on qualitative assessments and statistical forecasts,this report puts forward some policy suggestions.
