The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were evaluated,with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century.Most mod-els fai...The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were evaluated,with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century.Most mod-els failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM),and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China,but provided reasonable results in Southwest (SW) and Northeast China (NE).The simula-tions produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai (YH) Basin area,although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general.One typical regional phe-nomenon,a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer,was completely missed by most models.The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated,and the ob-served geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models.Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV (Generalized Ex-treme Values) distributions.The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions,but reasonable values were calculated for the North China (NC) and NE regions.These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models.Nonetheless,models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China 2009CB421401/2006CB400503the Chinese Meteorological Administration ProgramGYHY200706001
文摘The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were evaluated,with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century.Most mod-els failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM),and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China,but provided reasonable results in Southwest (SW) and Northeast China (NE).The simula-tions produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai (YH) Basin area,although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general.One typical regional phe-nomenon,a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer,was completely missed by most models.The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated,and the ob-served geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models.Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV (Generalized Ex-treme Values) distributions.The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions,but reasonable values were calculated for the North China (NC) and NE regions.These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models.Nonetheless,models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.
