Based on tree-ring samples collected from Zaduo area in southern Qinghai Province, a 646-year ring-width series was established. Using response function, correlation function and partial correlation analysis we found ...Based on tree-ring samples collected from Zaduo area in southern Qinghai Province, a 646-year ring-width series was established. Using response function, correlation function and partial correlation analysis we found that the ring-width series is sensitive most to May and June mean maximum air temperature at Zaduo meteorological stations and the correlation is significantly negative. Therefore, May-June mean maximum air temperature in Zaduo area since 1360 is reconstructed using this ring-width series. The regression equation was cross-validated in the calibration period of 1961-2005. The calibration equation can explain 59.8% of the total variance. Since high temperature could reinforce evapotranspiration and result in water stress, the high values are more reliable than the low values in the reconstructed series. By further analyzing upon the reconstructed series, it shows that on the in-ter-annual scale there are 6 periods with higher temperature: 1438-1455, 1572-1612, 1684-1700, 1730-1754, 1812-1829 and 1853-1886; while there are 5 periods with lower temperature: 1547-1571, 1701-1729, 1755-1777, 1830-1852 and 1887-1910. There is no significant rising of temperature in recent 50 years. By comparison with the rings-width series nearby which are also sensitive to the mean maximum air temperature and the mean maximum temperature reconstruction by ring-widths, it is found that the variation of inter-annual scale is fairly common in the region.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40599424)Sichuan Meteorological Bureau (08-02) and Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration (BROP200 810)
文摘Based on tree-ring samples collected from Zaduo area in southern Qinghai Province, a 646-year ring-width series was established. Using response function, correlation function and partial correlation analysis we found that the ring-width series is sensitive most to May and June mean maximum air temperature at Zaduo meteorological stations and the correlation is significantly negative. Therefore, May-June mean maximum air temperature in Zaduo area since 1360 is reconstructed using this ring-width series. The regression equation was cross-validated in the calibration period of 1961-2005. The calibration equation can explain 59.8% of the total variance. Since high temperature could reinforce evapotranspiration and result in water stress, the high values are more reliable than the low values in the reconstructed series. By further analyzing upon the reconstructed series, it shows that on the in-ter-annual scale there are 6 periods with higher temperature: 1438-1455, 1572-1612, 1684-1700, 1730-1754, 1812-1829 and 1853-1886; while there are 5 periods with lower temperature: 1547-1571, 1701-1729, 1755-1777, 1830-1852 and 1887-1910. There is no significant rising of temperature in recent 50 years. By comparison with the rings-width series nearby which are also sensitive to the mean maximum air temperature and the mean maximum temperature reconstruction by ring-widths, it is found that the variation of inter-annual scale is fairly common in the region.
