Diagnostic Study of an Extreme Explosive Cyclone over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension Region

Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region.The most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-April)was studied to reveal the variations of the key factors at different explosive-developing stages.This EC had weak low-level baroclinicity,mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection,and strong low-level water vapor convergence at the initial explosive-developing stage.The low-level baroclinicity and mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection increased substantially during the maximum-deepening-rate stage.The diagnostic analyses using the Zwack-Okossi equation showed that diabatic heating was the main contributor to the initial rapid intensification of this EC.The cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection enhanced rapidly in the middle and upper troposphere and contributed to the maximum rapid intensification,whereas the diabatic heating weakened slightly in the mid-low troposphere.The relative contribution of the diabatic heating decreased from the initial explosive-developing stage to the maximum-deepening-rate stage due to the enhancement of other factors(the cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection).Furthermore,the physical factors contributing to this EC varied with the explosive-developing stage.The non-key factors at the initial explosive-developing stage need attention to forecast the rapid intensification.

Robust GEFA Assessment of Climate Feedback to SST EOF Modes

Atmospheric response to SST variability was estimated using generalized equilibrium feedback analysis （GEFA） in the SST EOF space with synthesis data from an idealized climate model. Results show that the GEFA atmospheric response to the leading SST EOF modes is much more accurate and robust than the GEFA feedback matrix in physical space. Therefore, GEFA provides a practical method for assessing atmospheric response to large-scale SST anomalies in terms of the leading EOFs.

Assessment of Dynamic Downscaling of the Extreme Rainfall over East Asia Using a Regional Climate Model

This study investigates the capability of the dynamic downscaling method （DDM） in an East Asian climate study for June 1998 using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model （MM5）.Sensitivity experiments show that MM5 results at upper atmospheric levels cannot match reanalyses data,but the results show consistent improvement in simulating moisture transport at low levels.The downscaling ability for precipitation is regionally dependent.During the monsoon season over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon season over North China,the DDM cannot match observed precipitation.Over Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau （TP）,where there is high topography,the DDM shows better performance than reanalyses.Simulated monsoon evolution processes over East Asia,however,are much closer to observational data than reanalyses.The convection scheme has a substantial impact on extreme rainfall over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon over North China,but only a marginal contribution for Northwest China and the TP.Land surface parameterizations affect the locations and pattern of rainfall bands.The 10-day re-initialization in this study shows some improvement in simulated precipitation over some sub-regions but with no obvious improvement in circulation.The setting of the location of lateral boundaries （LLB） westward improves performance of the DDM.Including the entire TP in the western model domain improves the DDM performance in simulating precipitation in most sub-regions.In addition,a seasonal simulation demonstrates that the DDM can also obtain consistent results,as in the June case,even when another two months consist of no strong climate/weather events.

Recent Advances in Studies on Formation Mechanism of Subtropical Mode Water and Its Climate Features in North Pacific

Mode Water’, as a product of air-sea interaction, influences the thermal structure and circulation pattern in upper layer ocean and consequently affects the variations of climate. In this paper the recent research results about the subtropi-cal Mode Water in the North Pacific are overiewed. A detailed description of the three kinds of Mode Water in the subtropical North Pacific and some comparisons of their similarities and differences are introduced. Some science problems that need further exploration have been raised.

Impact of the Barents Sea SST in Autumn on the Winter Climate in Northeast China

We studied effects of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Barents Sea in autumn on the atmospheric circulation in northeast China in winter, using the NCEP reanalysis data and sea surface temperature (SST) data of the Hadley Center. The results show that the ocean thermal conditions in the Barents Sea in autumn can be used as an important reference factor for predicting the cold air activity in China. When the sea surface temperature anomaly of the Barents Sea elevated in the autumn, the sea-level pressure anomaly elevated in eastern China on December, northeast China and southeastern Russia on January and February. In the years when the SSTA of the Barents Sea elevated in the autumn, the abnormal high-pressure ridge developed over Europe, and the geopotential height in western China appeared negative anomaly at 500 hPa. At 1000 hPa, the Mongolia high-pressure increased and the northerly airflow strengthened the cold high-latitude air broke out to the south, which was easy to affect northeast and north of China. In negative SSTA years, the high-pressure ridge was west to the north Atlantic, and the geopotential height in central and northern Siberia appeared negative anomaly at 500 hPa;the Mongolia high-pressure was weakened at 1000 hPa.

Historic and Future Perspectives of Storm and Cyclone

In weather sciences,the two specific terms“storm”and“cyclone”frequently appear in literature and usually refer to the violent nature of a number of weather systems characterized by central low pressure,strong winds,large precipitation amounts in the form of rain,freezing rain,or snow,as well as thunder and lightning.But what is the connection between these two specific terms?In this paper,the historic evolutions of the terms“storm”and“cyclone”are reviewed from the perspective of weather science.The earliest recorded storms in world history are also briefly introduced.Then,the origin of the term“meteorological bomb”,which is the nickname of the“explosive cyclone”is introduced.Later,the various definitions of explosive cyclones given by several researchers are discussed.Also,the climatological features of explosive cyclones,as well as the future trends of explosive cyclones under global climate change,are discussed.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Front on Stratus-Sea Fog over the Yellow and East China Seas-A Case Study with Implications for Climatology

A stratus-sea fog event that occurred over the Yellow and East China Seas on 3 June 2011 is investigated using observa-tions and a numerical model, with a focus on the effects of background circulation and Sea Surface Temperature Front (SSTF) on the transition of stratus into sea fog. Southerly winds of a synoptic high-pressure circulation transport water vapor to the Yellow Sea, creating conditions favorable for sea fog/stratus formation. The subsidence from the high-pressure contributes to the temperature inversion at the top of the stratus. The SSTF forces a secondary circulation within the ABL (Atmospheric Boundary Layer), the sink-ing branch of which on the cold flank of SSTF helps lower the stratus layer further to reach the sea surface. The cooling effect over the cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by subsidence. The secondary circulation becomes weak and the fog patches are shrunk heavily with the smoothed SSTF. A conceptual model is proposed for the transition of stratus into sea fog over the Yellow and East China Seas. Finally, the analyses suggest that sea fog frequency will probably decrease due to the weakened SSTF and the reduced subsidence of secondary circulation under global warming.

The Role of the Kuroshio in the Winter North Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction: Comparison of a Coupled Model and Observations

A comparative study between the output of the Flexible Global Climate Model Version 1.0 （FGCM- 1.0） and the observations is performed. At 500 hPa, the geopotential height of FGCM is similar to the observations, but in the North Pacific the model gives lower values, and the differences are most significant over the northern boundary of the Pacific. In a net heat flux comparison, the spatial patterns of the two are similar in winter, but more heat loss appears to the east of Japan in FGCM than in COADS. On the interannual timescale, strong （weak） Kuroshio transports to the east of Taiwan lead the increasing （decreasing） net heat flux, which is centered over the Kuroshio Extension region, by 1-2 months, with low （high） pressure anomaly responses appearing at 500 hPa over the North Pacific （north of 25°N） in winter. The northward heat transport of the Kuroshio is one of the important heat sources to support the warming of the atmosphere by the ocean and the formation of the low pressure anomaly at 500 hPa over the North Pacific in winter.

The Effect of the East China Sea Kuroshio Front on the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Various satellite data,JRA-25(Japan reanalysis of 25 years) reanalyzed data and WRF(Weather Research Forecast) model are used to investigate the in situ effect of the ESKF(East China Sea Kuroshio Front) on the MABL(marine atmospheric boundary layer).The intensity of the ESKF is most robust from January to April in its annual cycle.The local strong surface northerly/northeasterly winds are observed right over the ESKF in January and in April and the wind speeds decrease upward in the MABL.The thermal wind effect that is derived from the baroclinic MABL forced by the strong SST gradient contributes to the strong surface winds to a large degree.The convergence zone existing along the warm flank of the ESKF is stronger in April than in January corresponding to the steeper SST(sea surface temperature) gradient.The collocations of the cloud cover maximum and precipitation maximum are basically consistent with the convergence zone of the wind field.The clouds develop higher(lower) in the warm(cold) flank of the ESKF due to the less(more) stable stratification in the MABL.The lowest clouds are observed in April on the cold flank of the ESKF and over the Yellow Sea due to the existence of the pronounced temperature inversion.The numerical experiments with smoothed SST are consistent with the results from the ovservations.

The Shallow Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Northern Indian Ocean and Its Interannual Variability

The shallow meridional overturning circulation (upper 1000 m) in the northern Indian Ocean and its interannual variability are studied, based on a global ocean circulation model (MOM2) with an integration of 10 years (1987-1996). It is shown that the shallow meridional overturning circulation has a prominent seasonal reversal characteristic. In winter, the flow is northward in the upper layer and returns southward at great depth. In summer, the deep northward inflow upwells north of the equator and returns southward in the Ekman layer. In the annual mean, the northward inflow returns through two branches: one is a southward flow in the Ekman layer, the other is a flow that sinks near 10°N and returns southward between 500 m and 1000 m. There is significant interannual variability in the shallow meridional overturning circulation, with a stronger (weaker) one in 1989 (1991) and with a period of about four years. The interannual variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation is intimately r

Super Typhoon Activity over the Western North Pacific and Its Relationship with ENSO

This paper analyzes the characteristics of super typhoons(STYs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)from 1965 to2005 and describes the seasonal variability of STY activity.The relation between STY activity and the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)as well as the possible reason for the influence of the ENSO on STY activity are also investigated.The results showed thatabout one fifth of the tropical cyclones(TCs)over the WNP could reach the rank of STY.Most STYs appeared from July to Novem-ber while there was a highest ratio between number of STYs and total number of TCs in November.Most STYs appeared east of thePhilippine Sea.In El Nio years,affected by sea surface temperature(SST),monsoon trough and weak vertical wind shear,TC for-mation locations shifted eastward and there were more STYs than in La Nia years when the affecting factors changed.

Intraseasonal Oscillation in Global Ocean Temperature Inferred from Argo

The intraseasonal oscillation （ISO; 14 97-day ocean was studied based on Argo observations periods） of temperature in the upper 2000 m of the global from 20052008. It is shown that near the surface the ISO existed mainly in a band east of 60°E, between 10°S and 10°N, and the region around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current （ACC）. At other levels analyzed, the ISOs also existed in the regions of the Kuroshio, the Gulf Stream, the Indonesian throughflow, the Somalia current, and the subtropical eountercurrent （STCC） of the North Pacific. The intraseasonal signals can be seen even at depths of about 2000 m in some regions of the global ocean. The largest amplitude of ISO appeared at the thermocline of the equatorial Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean, with maximum standard deviation （STD） exceeding 1.2°C. The ACC, the Kuroshio, and the Gulf Stream regions all exhibited large STD for all levels analyzed. Especially at 1000 m, the largest STD appeared in the south and southeast of South Africa a part of the ACC, with a maximum value that reached 0.5°C. The ratios of the intraseasonal temperature variance to the total variance at 1000 m and at the equator indicated that, in a considerable part of the global deep ocean, the ISO was dominant in the variations of temperature, since such a ratio exceeded even 50% there. A case study also confirmed the existence of the ISO in the deep ocean. These results provide useful information for the design of field observations in the global ocean. Analysis and discussion are also given for the mechanism of the ISO.

A 38-Year Climatology of Explosive Cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere

Explosive cyclones(ECs)over two basins in the Northern Hemisphere(20°-90°N)from January 1979 to December2016 are investigated using ERA-Interim and Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature(OISST)data.The classical definition of an EC is modified considering not only the rapid drop of the central sea level pressure of the cyclone,but also the strong wind speed at the height of 10 m in which maximum wind speeds greater than 17.2 m s^-1are included.According to the locations of the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific,the whole Northern Hemisphere is divided into the"A region"(20°-90°N,90°W-90°E)and"P region"(20°-90°N,90°E-90°W).Over both the A and P regions,the climatological features of ECs,such as their spatial distribution,intensity,seasonal variation,interannual variation,and moving tracks,are documented.

Analysis of the Anomalous Strength and Location of the ITCZ Affecting the Formation of Northern Pacific Typhoons

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1959-2004, the location and strength of the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Con- vergence Zone), as well as their relations with typhoons in the northwestern Pacific were studied. It was found that the pentad loca- tion and strength of the ITCZ had close relations with the typhoon frequency. Higher latitude location or strengthened ITCZ were found to be favorable for the occurrence of typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific. An index was defined for ascertaining the loca- tion of the ITCZ. It was found that the index defined with the maximum value of pentad and monthly meridional shear of zonal wind speed could better describe the location of ITCZ than another index defined with the maximum value of convergence. Correlation analysis between the index of ITCZ and the maximum cloud cover in the tropics showed that there were close relations between the ITCZ determined by the index and the maximum tropical cloud belt. The strength index of an ITCZ was defined as the zonal wind speed difference at latitudes south and north of the ITCZ. It was found that there are close relations between the ITCZ intensity and typhoon occurrence in the South China Sea [10°N-20°N,100°E-120°E] and regions east of the Philippines and near the Mariana Islands [5°N-20°N, 127.5°E-150°E].

Response of Asian Summer Monsoon to CO_2 Doubling

Based on simulations of the IPCC 20C3M and SRES A1B experiments in ten coupled models, the Asian summer mon-soon (ASM) response to CO2 doubling and the different responses among models are examined. Nine models show the similar results that the weakening of land-ocean thermal contrast caused by the CO2 doubling contributes to a weaker large-scale ASM circulation. Further analysis in this study also shows that the major ASM components,such as the Somali cross-equatorial flow,the low level India-South China Sea monsoon trough,and the upper level tropical easterly jet stream, weaken as CO2 doubles.However,the ASM rainfall increases as a result of the increased moisture from the warmer Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, and the enhanced northward moisture transport over the ASM region.For the response of enhanced northward moisture transport over South Asia, the positive contribution of moisture content increase in the Indian Ocean is dominant and the negative contribution of the weaker mon-soon circulation is secondary at 850 hPa,but both have positive contribution to the total moisture transport along the East China coast.The paradox of the weaker ASM circulation and the increasing precipitation in CO2 doubling is confirmed.It is found that strengthening of northward moisture transport could intensify the precipitation and atmospheric heat source over the north Arabian Sea and East China,and result in enhanced southwesterly at 850 hPa as global warming occurs.All ten models show significant enhanced southwesterly response over the north Arabian Sea,and six of them show enhanced southwesterly response along the East China coast.

Seasonal variation and formation mechanism of the South China Sea warm water

The South China Sea warm water (SCSWW) is identified as the warm water body withtemperature no less than 28*. There are three stages in the seasonal variation of the SCSWW. The SCSWW expands rapidly and deepens quickly in the developing stage. The warm water thickness decreases near the coast of Vietnam and increases near Palawan Island in the steady stage. The SCSWW flinches southward while its thickness off Palawan Island remains no less than 50 m in the flinching stage. The maximum thickness of the SCSWW is always located near the southeastern SCS. The seasonal variation of the SCSWW has a close relationship with seasonal variation of the thermocline. According to the analysis of the numerical experiment results from the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), the mechanism of the seasonal variation of the SCSWW can be interpreted as: (1) in the developing stage, the rapidly expanding and thickening feature of the SCSWW is mainly due to buoyancy flux effect (67% contribution). The weak wind and anticyclonic wind stress curl (22% contribution) present an environment which facilitates the accumulation of warm water; (2) in the steady stage, the decrease feature near the Vietnam coast and increase eature in southeast of the SCSWW thickness are mainly caused by wind stress (70% contribution); (3) in the flinching stage, the thickness reduction of the SCSWW is mainly due to upwelling and enhanced turbulent mixing caused by wind stress (accounts for 60%).

Boreal Winter Rainfall Anomaly over the Tropical Indo-Pacific and Its Effect on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Models

Experimental outputs of 11 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP） models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） are analyzed to assess the atmospheric circulation anomaly over Northern Hemisphere induced by the anomalous rainfall over tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean during boreal winter.The analysis shows that the main features of the interannual variation of tropical rainfall anomalies,especially over the Central Pacific （CP） （5°S-5°N,175°E-135°W） and Indo-western Pacific （IWP） （20°S-20°N,110°-150°E） are well captured in all the CMIP5/AMIP models.For the IWP and western Indian Ocean （WIO） （10°S-10°N,45°-75°E）,the anomalous rainfall is weaker in the 11 CMIP5/AMIP models than in the observation.During El Ni（n）o/La Ni（n）a mature phases in boreal winter,consistent with observations,there are geopotential height anomalies known as the Pacific North American （PNA） pattern and Indo-western Pacific and East Asia （IWPEA） pattern in the upper troposphere,and the northwestern Pacific anticyclone （cyclone） （NWPA） in the lower troposphere in the models.Comparison between the models and observations shows that the ability to simulate the PNA and NWPA pattern depends on the ability to simulate the anomalous rainfall over the CP,while the ability to simulate the IWPEA pattern is related to the ability to simulate the rainfall anomaly in the IWP and WIO,as the SST anomaly is same in AMIP experiments.It is found that the tropical rainfall anomaly is important in modeling the impact of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean on the extratropical atmospheric circulation anomaly.

Structures and Evolutions of Explosive Cyclones over the Northwestern and Northeastern Pacific

In this study, the structures and evolutions of moderate(MO) explosive cyclones(ECs) over the Northwestern Pacific(NWP) and Northeastern Pacific(NEP) are investigated and compared using composite analysis with cyclone-relative coordinates. Final Operational Global Analysis data gathered during the cold seasons(October–April) of the 15 years from 2000 to 2015 are used. The results indicate that MO NWP ECs have strong baroclinicity and abundant latent heat release at low levels and strong upper-level forcing, which favors explosive cyclogenesis. The rapid development of MO NEP ECs results from their interaction with a northern cyclone and a large middle-level advection of cyclonic vorticity. The structural differences between MO NWP ECs and MO NEP ECs are significant. This results from their specific large-scale atmospheric and oceanic environments. MO NWP ECs usually develop rapidly in the east and southeast of the Japan Islands; the intrusion of cold dry air from the East Asian continent leads to strong baroclinicity, and the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension provides abundant latent heat release at low levels. The East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream supplies strong upper-level forcing. While MO NEP ECs mainly occur over the NEP, the low-level baroclinicity, upper-level jet stream, and warm ocean currents are relatively weaker. The merged cyclone associated with a strong middle-level trough transports large cyclonic vorticity to MO NEP ECs, which favors their rapid development.

Some Problems on the Global Wavelet Spectrum

In order to test the validity of the global wavelet spectrum - a new period analysis method based on wavelet analysis, we carried out some simple experiments. In our experiments we used idealized time series and real Ni(~n)o 3 sea surface temperature (SST) for testing purposes. First we combined different signals which have the same power but different periods into some new time series. Then we calculated the global wavelet spectra and Fourier power spectra for the testing time series. The testing results revealed that on some occasions the global wavelet spectrum tends to amplify the relative power of longer periods. By making comparisons with the results obtained by the traditional Fourier power spectrum, we demonstrated that on an occasion when the global wavelet spectrum does not work the Fourier power spectrum can be used to achieve the right results. Hence it is recommended that when making period analysis with the global wavelet spectrum one needs to do further tests to confirm their results.

Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Tropical Indian Ocean

The features of the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） of the tropical Indian Ocean are studied using several sources of observational data. It is shown that there are intraseasonal oscillations in the tropical Indian Ocean, but their periods vary with latitude： the major period is about 20-30 days in the equatorial region, about 30-50 days at 10°N/10°S latitude and 60-90 days at 20°N/20°S latitude. The intensity of the ISO increases with latitude but the speed of the westward propagation of the ISO decreases with latitude. The intensity and propagation speed of the ISO have clear interannual variation features. The atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation over the tropical Indian Ocean is also analyzed and compared with the oceanic intraseasonal oscillation. It is shown that the major period is in the range 30-60 days and the intensity and period of the atmospheric ISO decrease with latitude slightly. The zonal propagation of the atmospheric ISO also has some differences with the oceanic ISO. It is necessary to study the relationship between the atmospheric ISO and oceanic ISO in the tropical Indian Ocean deeply.