Reconstructing historical forest fire risk in the non-satellite era using the improved forest fire danger index and long short-term memory deep learning-a case study in Sichuan Province,southwestern China

Historical forest fire risk databases are vital for evaluating the effectiveness of past forest management approaches,enhancing forest fire warnings and emergency response capabilities,and accurately budgeting potential carbon emissions resulting from fires.However,due to the unavailability of spatial information technology,such databases are extremely difficult to build reliably and completely in the non-satellite era.This study presented an improved forest fire risk reconstruction framework that integrates a deep learning-based time series prediction model and spatial interpolation to address the challenge in Sichuan Province,southwestern China.First,the forest fire danger index(FFDI)was improved by supplementing slope and aspect information.We compared the performances of three time series models,namely,the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),Prophet and long short-term memory(LSTM)in predicting the modified forest fire danger index(MFFDI).The bestperforming model was used to retrace the MFFDI of individual stations from 1941 to 1970.Following this,the Anusplin spatial interpolation method was used to map the distributions of the MFFDI at five-year intervals,which were then subjected to weighted overlay with the distance-to-river layer to generate forest fire risk maps for reconstructing the forest fire danger database.The results revealed LSTM as the most accurate in fitting and predicting the historical MFFDI,with a fitting determination coefficient(R^2)of 0.709,mean square error(MSE)of0.047,and validation R^2 and MSE of 0.508 and 0.11,respectively.Independent validation of the predicted forest fire risk maps indicated that 5 out of 7 historical forest fire events were located in forest fire-prone areas,which is higher than the results determined from the original FFDI(2 out of 7).This proves the effectiveness of the improved MFFDI and indicates a high level of reliability of the historical forest fire risk reconstruction method proposed in this study.

Afforestation with an age-sequence of Mongolian pine plantation promotes soil microbial residue accumulation in the Horqin Sandy Land, China

Land use change affects the balance of organic carbon(C)reserves and the global C cycle.Microbial residues are essential constituents of stable soil organic C(SOC).However,it remains unclear how microbial residue changes over time following afforestation.In this study,16-,23-,52-,and 62-year-old Mongolian pine stands and 16-year-old cropland were studied in the Horqin Sandy Land,China.We analyzed changes in SOC,amino sugar content,and microbial parameters to assess how microbial communities influence soil C transformation and preservation.The results showed that SOC storage increased with stand age in the early stage of afforestation but remained unchanged at about 1.27-1.29 kg/m2 after 52 a.Moreover,there were consistent increases in amino sugars and microbial residues with increasing stand age.As stand age increased from 16 to 62 a,soil pH decreased from 6.84 to 5.71,and the concentration of total amino sugars increased from 178.53 to 509.99 mg/kg.A significant negative correlation between soil pH and the concentration of specific and total amino sugars was observed,indicating that the effects of soil acidification promote amino sugar stabilization during afforestation.In contrast to the Mongolian pine plantation of the same age,the cropland accumulated more SOC and microbial residues because of fertilizer application.Across Mongolian pine plantation with different ages,there was no significant change in calculated contribution of bacterial or fungal residues to SOC,suggesting that fungi were consistently the dominant contributors to SOC with increasing time.Our results indicate that afforestation in the Horqin Sandy Land promotes efficient microbial growth and residue accumulation in SOC stocks and has a consistent positive impact on SOC persistence.

Effects of Forest Types on Soil Available Nutrients and Carbon Contents in Coastal Areas,China

Clarifying the soil nutrient dynamics caused by forest type variations in the coastal region helps scientifically to apply fertilizer to forest plantations and enhance the carbon(C)sink capacity.Pure forests of Ligustrum and Metasequoia,as well as their mixed forests,in a coastal region of China were investigated by collecting 0-20 and 20-40 cm soil samples and analyzing their differences in bulk density,water content,pH,soil organic matter(SOM),ammonium(NH_(4)^(+)-N),nitrate(NO_(3)^(-)-N)and total nitrogen(TN),available phosphorus(AP)and potassium(AK),microbial biomass C(MBC)and N(MBN),and enzyme activity.The results demonstrated that different forest types had no significant(p≥0.05)effect on 0-20 cm soil bulk density,water content,pH,NH_(4)^(+)-N,and SOM.However,the surface soil NO_(3)^(-)-N,TN,AP,and AK contents as well as enzyme activity changed significantly(p<0.05),in which the soil AK content of the ligustrum×metasequoia mixed forest was 47.5%and 65.5%higher than that of the ligustrum and metasequoia pure forest,respectively.The mixed forest soil had the highest MBN content,which was significantly(p<0.05)25.1%higher than that in the pure metasequoia forest.Meanwhile,soil phosphatase activities in ligustrum and metasequoia pure forests were significantly(p<0.05)lower than those in the mixed forests by 17.4%and 43.1%,respectively.However,soil NO_(3)^(-)-N and AP contents in the metasequoia pure forest were significantly(p<0.05)higher than those in the ligustrum pure forest and mixed forests.Soil MBC content and reductase NO_(3)^(-)-N activity were significantly(p<0.05)higher in ligustrum pure forest than in metasequoia pure forest and mixed forests.In addition,the results of two-way ANOVA showed that there were no significant(p≥0.05)differences in nutrient contents(e.g.,NH_(4)^(+)-N,AP,AK,and SOM)in different soil layers(0-20 and 20-40 cm)within the same forest type,except for NO_(3)^(-)-N.However,forest types had a significant(p<0.05)impact on NO_(3)^(-)-N and AP contents in 20-40 cm soil layer.Combining the two factors of forest stand and soil layer,there was a significant(p<0.05)interaction effect for their soil NH_(4)^(+)-N,NO_(3)^(-)-N,AP,and AK contents.In conclusion,significant(p<0.05)differences were observed in nutrient contents in 0-20 cm soil layer from different forest types,with soil fertility indices inmixed forests generally higher than in pure forests.Therefore,establishing mixed forests in coastal saline region is recommended to retain soil fertility and to enhance the C sink capacity of forestry.

Active forest management accelerates carbon storage in plantation forests in Lishui,southern China

Background:China has committed to achieving peak CO_(2)emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060;therefore,accelerated efforts are needed to better understand carbon accounting in industry and energy fields as well as terrestrial ecosystems.The carbon sink capacity of plantation forests contributes to the mitigation of climate change.Plantation forests throughout the world are intensively managed,and there is an urgent need to evaluate the effects of such management on long-term carbon dynamics.Methods:We assessed the carbon cycling patterns of ecosystems characterized by three typical plantation species(Chinese fir(Cunninghamia lanceolata(Lamb.)Hook.),oak(Cyclobalanopsis glauca(Thunb.)Oerst.),and pine(Pinus massoniana Lamb.))in Lishui,southern China,by using an integrated biosphere simulator(IBIS)tuned with localized parameters.Then,we used the state-and-transition simulation model(STSM)to study the effects of active forest management(AFM)on carbon storage by combining forest disturbance history and carbon cycle regimes.Results:1)The carbon stock of the oak plantation was lower at an early age(<50 years)but higher at an advanced age(>50 years)than that of the Chinese fir and pine plantations.2)The carbon densities of the pine and Chinese fir plantations peaked at 70 years(223.36 Mg⋅ha^(‒1))and 64 years(232.04 Mg⋅ha^(‒1)),respectively,while the carbon density in the oak plantation continued increasing(>100 years).3)From 1989 to 2019,the total carbon pools of the three plantation ecosystems followed an upward trend(an annual increase of 0.16–0.22 Tg C),with the largest proportional increase in the aboveground biomass carbon pool.4)AFM increased the recovery of carbon storage after 1996 and 2009 in the pine and Chinese fir plantations,respectively,but did not result in higher growth in the oak plantation.5)The proposed harvest planning is reasonable and conducive to maximizing the carbon sequestration capacity of the forest.Conclusions:This study provides an example of a carbon cycle coupling model that is potentially suitable for simulating China's plantation forest ecosystems and supporting carbon accounting to monitor peak CO_(2)emissions and reach carbon neutrality.

Leaf litter and crop residue decomposition in ginkgo agroforestry systems in eastern China: Soil fauna diversity and abundance,microbial biomass and nutrient release

The response of soil fauna to the litter decomposition process has received considerable attention,but this effect has not been fully examined in agroforestry systems.A 1-year in situ decomposition experiment was carried out in a pure ginkgo plantation and two ginkgo agroforestry systems using a litterbag method(11 different treatments were tested in three systems).We found that the application of different organic materials(crop residues)produced positive effects on the number of soil fauna in the ginkgo planting systems;the mixture of ginkgo leaves and corn leaves was the best performing treatment.Collembola and Acarina were the predominant groups in the litter bags and were mainly responsible for the differences among the treatments.Litter mixing promoted the abundance,richness,and diversity of soil fauna,and significant differences regarding the Shannon–Wiener index of the soil fauna were observed among the 11 treatments in July.Significantly higher soil MBC(microbial biomass carbon)and MBN(microbial biomass nitrogen)were observed in agroforestry systems than in pure ginkgo plantations.These results suggest that the practice of intercrop residue application plays an important role in enhancing soil ecosystem function in ginkgo agroforestry systems and may ultimately contribute to sustainable intercrop production,soil fertility,and local economic diversity.

Intraspecific variations in fine root N and P and factors affecting their concentrations in Masson pine plantations across subtropical China

Fine roots(<2 mm)play vital roles in water and nutrient uptake.However,intraspecific variations in their chemical traits and their controlling mechanisms remain poorly understood at a regional scale.This study examined these intraspecific variations in fine roots in Masson pine(Pinus massoniana Lamb.)plantations across subtropical China and their responses to environmental factors.Root nitrogen(N)and phosphorus(P)concentrations and their mass ratios(N:P)ranged from 3.5 to 11.7 g kg^(-1),0.2 to0.9 g kg^(-1),and 7.8 to 51.6 g kg^(-1),respectively.These three chemical traits were significantly different between sites and in longitudinal patterns across subtropical China.Mean annual temperature was positively related to root N concentration but negatively related to root P concentration.There were significant,negative relationships between clay content and root P concentration and between pH and root N concentration.Available N had no significant relationship with root N concentration,while available P was a significantly positive relationship with root P concentration.The combined effects of altitude,climate(temperature and precipitation)and soil properties(pH,clay content,available N and P)explained 26%and 36%of the root N and P concentrations variations,respectively.These environmental variables had direct and indirect effects and exhibited disproportionate levels of total effects on root N and P concentrations.Root N and P concentrations explained 35%and 65%variations in their mass ratios,respectively.The results highlight different spatial patterns of chemical traits and various environmental controls on root N and P concentrations in these ecosystems.More cause-effect relationships of root chemical traits with abiotic and biotic factors are needed to understand nutrient uptake strategies and the mechanisms controlling intraspecific variations in plant traits.

Seasonal dynamics of foliar δ^(13)C and nutrient concentration of Chinese chastetree and spine jujube in foothill rock outcrop habitat of the southern Taihang Mountains, Central China

In this study, in situ investigation was conducted on Chinese chastetree(Vitex negundo var. heterophylla)and spine jujube(Ziziphus jujuba var. spinosa) during early, developed, and closing succession stages. Monthly data were recorded for foliar δ^(13)C values and foliar N, P,and K concentrations from May to October. Foliar δ^(13)C values declined with time and differences by succession stage varied by species. Older spine jujube displayed higher foliar N concentration while foliar P concentration was inversely related with N. Chinese chastetree had lower foliar K concentration than spine jujube. Foliar C/N ratio declined during the dry season and increased in the wet season. Foliar N/P ratio increased during the dry season and declined to its initial level until October, when it increased again. Foliar δ^(13)C value was positively correlated with foliar N concentration. Foliar P and K concentrations were positively correlated to each other. In conclusion, the two shrubs had contrasting strategies of water use efficiency during their succession, but water use efficiency of both species was promoted by N availability and limited by P availability.

Leaf phenotypic variation in natural populations of Carpinus tschonoskii in China

Carpinus tschonoskii Maxim.exhibits rich leaf phenotypic variation and various leaf shapes,but few studies show why leaf phenotypic traits have such a large variation.Basic morphological markers may provide guidance for studying plant genetic variation and species protection and utilization.To study leaf phenotypic variations and the relationship between variation characteristics and climatic and geographical factors,phenotypic traits among natural populations were investigated.Results revealed that leaf phenotypes varied significantly among and within populations.Some populations had higher phenotypic diversity,while others had lower phenotypic diversity.Among the phenotypic traits,leaf area and petiole length had the most variation.Leaf index and primary lateral veins were the most stable phenotypes,which may be important reference indexes for phenotype identification in field investigations.There was a strong consistency between leaf phenotypic traits and geographical location.Plants in high latitudes tend to have longer leaves,and plants in low temperatures tend to have longer leaves and larger leaf perimeter.In addition,plants in areas with less rainfall have longer petioles.The 13 populations of C.tschonoskii can be divided into four branches by cluster analysis,and the results show a good relationship with the geographical location of each population.Additionally,some populations geographically isolated also had unique leaf phenotypes.

Diverse responses of fungal functional groups to desertification in forest soils of Pinus densata on the Chinese Tibetan plateau

Rapid increase in desertification is an environ-mental concern,especially for the health and sustainabil-ity of ecosystems in changing climates.How ecosystems respond to such changes may be partially understood by studying interactions and performance of critically impor-tant groups such as soil fungi functional groups.This study investigated variations in diversities of three soil fungi functional guilds(saprotrophic,symbiotic,pathogenic)and influencing abiotic factors in a Pinus densata forest on the southeast Tibetan Plateau where desertification is intense.The results indicate desertification significantly decreased the proportion of dominant fungal guild-symbiotic fungi(mean relative abundance decreasing from 97.0%to 68.3%),in contrast to saprotrophic fungi(increasing from 2.7%to 25.7%)and pathogenic(from 0.3%to 5.9%).Soil pH had the most significant impact on fungal community structure and negatively correlated with symbiotic fungal richness,which was significantly lower in arid soils,and positively correlated with saprotrophic and pathogenic fungal alpha-diversity,which were abundant.Different community struc-tures and regulators of the three fungi communities were observed,with pH,total phosphorus and ammonium(NH_(4)^(+))as the main determinants.This study links the biotic and abi-otic components during desertification and the interactions between them,and may be used as indicators of ecosystem health and for amendments to mitigate the effects of a chang-ing climate.

The first mitogenome of Lauraceae(Cinnamomum chekiangense)

There are three distinct genetic systems in higher plants,the dominant nuclear genome and the semi-autonomous organelle genomes(plastids and mitochondria).In contrast to the conserved plastid genome(plastome),the plant mitochondrial genome(mitogenome)is characterized by an intriguing“evolutionary paradox”distinguished by a remarkably low mutation rate but with a significantly high rearrangement rate(Palmer and Herbon,1988;Lai et al.,2022).

Arlenea delicata gen.et sp.nov.,a new ephedroid plant from the Early Cretaceous Crato Formation,Araripe Basin,Northeast Brazil

Ephedroid macrofossils have been widely documented in Cretaceous deposits,including numerous from the Lower Cretaceous Yixian Formation of NE China.However,few ephedroid macrofossils have been reported from South America.Herein,we describe a new plant of the family Ephedraceae,Arlenea delicata gen.et sp.nov.,from the Lower Cretaceous Crato Formation of the Araripe Basin,Northeast Brazil,based on the vegetative and reproductive structures.It has the typical morphological characteristics of ephedroid plants,including fertile reproductive branches,opposite phyllotaxy,terminal female cones,a sympodial branching system,longitudinally striated internodes,and swollen nodes.Our new finding is unusual in having inner chlamydosperms subtended by two pairs of bracts,reproductive units connected to branches through swollen receptacles and a smooth seed surface.This new ephedroid taxon from the Crato Formation increases our understanding of plant diversity of this group during the Early Cretaceous.Furthermore,the general morphology(fleshy bracts and enlarged receptacles)of this new fossil discovery indicates that seeds of this plant may have been dispersed by animals such as pterosaurs(mainly the Tapejaridae)and birds(Enantiornithes and Ornituromorpha).If true,this would explain the cosmopolitan distribution of Ephedraceae in the Lower Cretaceous.

Exploring the Forest Cover Changes and Influential Factors of Dongsithouane National Production Forest Area, Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR

The Dongsithouane National Production Forest (DNPF) is one of the largest natural forest areas in Savannakhet, Lao PDR, which has been a vital support for the local community’s livelihood, Recently, significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have been observed in this area, leading to a reduction of natural forests. There were two separate methods of this study: firstly, to identify LULC changes across three different periods, spectral imagery from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) for the years 2001 and 2011, and the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) for 2021 were used as the primary data sources. The satellite images were preprocessed for various forest classes, including pretreatment of the top of atmosphere reflectance by using QGIS software’s semi-automatic classification plug-in (SCP), and ArcGIS was used for post-classification. A supervised classification approach was applied to the satellite images from 2001, 2011, and 2021 to generate diverse maps of LULC. Secondly, a household survey dataset was used to investigate influential factors. Approximately 220 households were interviewed in order to collect socio-economic information (including data on population growth, increased business activities, location of the area, agriculture land expansion, and need for settlement land). Household survey data was analyzed by using SPSS. Descriptive statistics, including frequency distributions and percentages, were applied to observe characteristics. Additionally, a binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the socioeconomic factors related to LULC change in DNPF. Key findings indicated a decline in natural forest areas within the study site. Specifically, both dry dipterocarp forest (−11.35%) and mixed deciduous forest (−0.18%) decreased from 2001 to 2021. The overall accuracy of the LULC maps was 94%, 86%, and 89% for the years 2001, 2011, and 2021 respectively. In contrast, agricultural land increased significantly by 155.70%, while built-up land, and water bodies increased by 65.54% and 35.33%, respectively. The results also highlighted a significant increase in construction land, up to 65.54%. Furthermore, the study found a correlation between agricultural expansion and a reduction of forest areas, along with an increase in built-up land along the forest areas’ boundaries. Timber exploitation and charcoal production also contributed to the decline in forest cover. The logistic regression model identified significant determinants of LULC change, including the area’s location, agricultural land expansion, increased business activity, and the need for settlement land. These factors have influenced the management of DNPF. Urgent sustainable management practices and actions, including forest ecosystem protection, village agricultural zoning, water source and watershed protection and public awareness, are required to preserve the forest areas of DNPF.

Bird functional traits affect seed dispersal patterns of China's endangered trees across different disturbed habitats

Background: The most dominant global threat to natural forests and their biodiversity is land-cover change, which has negative impacts on both species persistence and ecosystem functions. Land-cover change could alter animal behaviour and disrupt seed dispersal mutualisms. However, its effects on the role of bird functional traits in seed dispersal are not well studied.Methods: In the present study, we assessed the contributions of bird functional traits(behavioural traits: food habit, foraging pattern, foraging frequency, and habitat specialisation; morphological traits: weight, body length, wing length, and tail length) to both seed removal patterns and seed dispersal distances of an endangered and native tree species, Chinese yew(Taxus chinensis), in farmland, patchy habitat, and natural habitat, of southeast China.Results: We found that the ability of T. chinensis trees to form seed dispersal mutualisms with local birds varied across the different disturbed habitats. As a consequence of these mutualisms, more seeds were removed by birds from the patchy habitat than from the other two habitats. The number of seeds removed increased with bird foraging frequency. Moreover, the dispersal distance from the three habitats differed, and the longest dispersal distances were observed at both the patchy habitat and the farmland site. Seed dispersal distance increased with bird tail and wing length.Conclusions: Our results highlight the importance of bird functional traits in the seed dispersal patterns of endangered trees across disturbed forest habitats, which should be considered for tree conservation and management.

Lasiodiplodia pseudotheobromae causes stem canker of Chinese hackberry in China

Chinese hackberry(Celtis sinensis Pers.)is an adaptable species widely growing in southern China.The symptoms of canker on stems of seedlings were discovered mid-July 2017 in Shuyang,Jiangsu Province.The diseased portions of the stems were dark brown due to discoloured xylem.Some seedlings showed symptoms of wilting,leaf fall,twig dieback,and tissue discolouration.The outbreak period was concentrated in July and August,suggesting that the disease spread during summer months.Possible fungal causal agents were isolated from naturally infected canker tissue and discoloured xylem.The isolate from xylem tissue with a high frequency(>50%)was named Ls7 type.Pathogenicity tests were carried out on 4-yearold seedlings.The symptoms of canker began to develop 20 days after inoculation with Ls7 isolate and by day 35,there were dark,enlarged longitudinal lesions.A phylogenetic tree of the isolate was developed using the internal transcribed spacer,elongation factor-1α(tef1-α),β-tubulin gene(TUB)and RNA polymerase II subunit primer genes(RPB2).Based on morphological features and phylogenetic information,the pathogen was identifi ed as Lasiodiplodia pseudotheobromae.This is the fi rst report of L.pseudotheobromae causing canker on Chinese hackberry stems in China.

Inter-and intra-specific phenotypic variation of ecological stoichiometric traits in a mixed-oak secondary forest in China

Ecological stoichiometry provides a framework for the balance and flow of elements between organisms and ecosystems.Elemental phenotypes have an important influence on the environmental adaptation and ecological evolution of plants.There have been few reports on inter-and intra-specific phenotypic variations of ecological stoichiometric traits for congeneric species in a mixed forest although such variations are well-documented at the species level at global,regional and local scales.In this study,total carbon(TC),nitrogen(TN),phosphorus(TP)and potassium(TK)were measured in leaves and the elemental phenotypes were statistically analyzed in four species of oaks—Quercus fabri,Q.serrata var.glandulifera,Q.acutissima and Q.variabilis—in a mixed-oak secondary forest in Yushan,Jiangsu,China.The average element concentrations in the four oak species were not relatively higher than previously reported for oaks from world and Chinese flora.Ecological stoichiometry traits were correlated with tree height and diameter at breast height,indicating that phosphorous and potassium were positively correlated with tree size,while carbon was negatively correlated,especially the relationship between oak growth and total carbon or total phosphorus was obvious,and the study concluded that this was because plant growth depended on phosphorus storage and had opposite effects on leaf carbon accumulation.Based on tree plasticity index and the coefficient of variation,there was medium variation in element concentrations.The plasticity index of total carbon levels was the lowest,and that of potassium the highest.Principal component analysis and cluster analysis showed that the intra-specific variation among the four oak species was higher than inter-specific variation.From the perspective of nutrient supply and ecological adaptation,this study creates a foundation for the management of secondary oak forest stands.

Comparing community birdwatching and professional bird monitoring with implications for avian diversity research: a case study of Suzhou, China

Background:In the past decades,birdwatching as a hobby developed rapidly and produced ample scientific records that have aided conservation efforts.Therefore,it is increasingly attractive to promote avian research by providing data from birdwatching.Methods:We compared records from 16 years of community birdwatching and a 1-year formalized bird monitoring in Suzhou,China to study the similarities and differences between the two monitoring methods.Results:We showed that within the 325 bird species recorded by the two methods,an annual average of 108 species were documented by community science and 223 bird species were recorded by 1-year formalized monitoring.Measured by the number of bird species recorded per survey trip,the bird monitoring activity of community birdwatchers was significantly lower.Furthermore,the monitoring intensity of community birdwatching measured as the average survey trips per site each survey year was also lower than that of formalized bird monitoring.In addition,community birdwatchers preferred urban landscapes to rural areas.Conclusions:Community birdwatching could record the majority of local birds and complements the professional surveys in avian research.Well designed and coordinated community science can be used to expand the knowledge about avian distribution and population dynamics.These findings are critical for the development of conservation science with regard to community involvement.

A potential distribution map of wintering Swan Goose(Anser cygnoides)in the middle and lower Yangtze River floodplain,China

Background: Reliable information on the distribution of target species and influencing environmental factors is essential for effective conservation management. However, ecologists have often derived data from costly field surveys. The Swan Goose(Anser cygnoides), a vulnerable Anatidae species, winters almost exclusively in China's Yangtze River floodplain, but wintering numbers have been steadily decreasing. To better safeguard this unique species, modern modeling approaches can be used to quantify and predict its suitable wintering habitat. Specifically, a potential wintering distribution map of this species is critically important.Methods: This study used the maximum entropy approach to model a distribution map of this species. In total, data from 97 up-to-date sites were extracted from 1263 survey sites(excluding duplicate data). After eliminating spatial autocorrelation, 11 environmental variables, including factors related to climate, land structure, vegetation, and anthropogenic activities, were used for model prediction.Results: The prediction distribution map shows that the population has concentrated mainly in the boundary area of Anhui, Hubei, and Jiangxi provinces, especially along the Yangtze River. Modeling results suggest that areas within the middle and lower Yangtze River floodplain, such as those in Hunan and Hubei provinces and the eastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province, demonstrate a potential level of "medium" suitability for this species to winter.Conclusions: Results from this study provide fundamental information for the restoration and management of the Swan Goose. Our "visualized" potential distribution map can assist in planning optimal conservation strategies, and consequently may help to increase the number of wintering populations in China.

Limiting climatic factors in shaping the distribution pattern and niche differentiation of Prunus dielsiana in subtropical China

Subtropical forest in China has received much attention due to its complex geologic environment and bioclimatic heterogeneity.There have been very few studies addressing which climatic factors have shaped both distribution patterns and niche differentiation of species from this region.It also remains unclear whether phylogenetic niche conservatism retains in plant species from this biodiversityrich subtropical region in China.In this study,we used geographic occurrence records and bioclimatic factors of Prunus dielsiana(Rosaceae),a wild cherry species,combined with the classical ENM-based DIVA-GIS software to access contemporary distribution and richness patterns of its natural populations.The current distribution of P.dielsiana occupied a relatively wide range but exhibited an uneven pattern eastward in general,and the core distribution zone of its populations are projected to concentrate in the Wushan and Wuling Mountain ranges of western China.Hydrothermic variables,particularly the Temperature Seasonality(bio4)are screened out quantitatively to be the most influential factors that have shaped the current geographical patterns of P.dielsiana.By comparison with other sympatric families,climatic niche at regional scale showed a pattern of phylogenetic niche conservatism within cherry species of Ros aceae.The effect of habitat filtering from altitude is more significant than those of longitude and latitude.We conclude that habitat filtering dominated by limiting hydrothermic factors is the primary driving process of the diversity pattern of P.dielsiana in subtropical China.

Using machine learning algorithms to estimate stand volume growth of Larix and Quercus forests based on national-scale Forest Inventory data in China

Estimating the volume growth of forest ecosystems accurately is important for understanding carbon sequestration and achieving carbon neutrality goals.However,the key environmental factors affecting volume growth differ across various scales and plant functional types.This study was,therefore,conducted to estimate the volume growth of Larix and Quercus forests based on national-scale forestry inventory data in China and its influencing factors using random forest algorithms.The results showed that the model performances of volume growth in natural forests(R^(2)=0.65 for Larix and 0.66 for Quercus,respectively)were better than those in planted forests(R^(2)=0.44 for Larix and 0.40 for Quercus,respectively).In both natural and planted forests,the stand age showed a strong relative importance for volume growth(8.6%–66.2%),while the edaphic and climatic variables had a limited relative importance(<6.0%).The relationship between stand age and volume growth was unimodal in natural forests and linear increase in planted Quercus forests.And the specific locations(i.e.,altitude and aspect)of sampling plots exhibited high relative importance for volume growth in planted forests(4.1%–18.2%).Altitude positively affected volume growth in planted Larix forests but controlled volume growth negatively in planted Quercus forests.Similarly,the effects of other environmental factors on volume growth also differed in both stand origins(planted versus natural)and plant functional types(Larix versus Quercus).These results highlighted that the stand age was the most important predictor for volume growth and there were diverse effects of environmental factors on volume growth among stand origins and plant functional types.Our findings will provide a good framework for site-specific recommendations regarding the management practices necessary to maintain the volume growth in China's forest ecosystems.

Characterizing long-term forest disturbance history and its drivers in the Ning-Zhen Mountains, Jiangsu Province of eastern China using yearly Landsat observations (1987–2011)

Forest losses or gains have long been recognized as critical processes modulating the carbon flux between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Timely, accurate and spatially explicit information on forest disturbance and recovery history is required for assessing the effectiveness of existing forest management. The major objectives of our research focused on testing the mapping efficacy of the vegetation change tracker （VCT） model over a forested area in China. We used a new version of VCT algorithm built upon the Landsat time series stacks （LTSS）. The LTSS consisted of yearly image acquisitions to map forest disturbance history from 1987 to 2011 over the Ning-Zhen Mountains, Jiangsu Province of east China. The LTSS consisted of TM and ETM＋ scenes with different projec- tions due to distinct data sources （Beijing remote sensing ground station and the USGS EROS Center）. The valida- tion results of the disturbance year maps showed that most spatial agreement measures ranged from 70 to 86 %, comparable with the VCT accuracies reported for many places in USA. Very low accuracies were identified in 1995 （38.3 %） and 1992 （56.2 %） in the current analysis. These resulted from the insensitivity of the VCT algorithm to detect low intensity disturbances and also from the mis- registration errors of the image pairs. Major forest distur- bance types existing in our study area were identified as agricultural expansion （39.8 %）, urbanization （24.9 %）, forest management practice （19.3 %）, and mining （12.8 %）. In general, there was a gradual decreasing trend in forest cover throughout this region, caused principally by China＇s economic, demographic, environmental and political policies and decisions, as well as some weather events. While VCT has largely been used to assess long term changes and trends in the USA, it has great potential for assessing landscape level change elsewhere throughout the world.