An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(...An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.展开更多
The climatology and interannual variability of sea surface salinity (SSS) and freshwater flux (FWF) in the equatorial Pacific are analyzed and evaluated using simulations from the Beijing Normal University Earth S...The climatology and interannual variability of sea surface salinity (SSS) and freshwater flux (FWF) in the equatorial Pacific are analyzed and evaluated using simulations from the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM). The simulated annual climatology and interannual variations of SSS, FWF, mixed layer depth (MLD), and buoyancy flux agree with those observed in the equatorial Pacific. The relationships among the interannual anomaly fields simulated by BNU-ESM are analyzed to illustrate the climate feedbacks induced by FWF in the tropical Pacific. The largest interannual variations of SSS and FWF are located in the western-central equatorial Pacific. A positive FWF feedback effect on sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific is identified. As a response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the interannual variation of FWF induces ocean processes which, in turn, enhance ENSO. During El Nino, a positive FWF anomaly in the western-central Pacific (an indication of increased precipitation rates) acts to enhance a negative salinity anomaly and a negative surface ocean density anomaly, leading to stable stratification in the upper ocean. Hence, the vertical mixing and entrainment of subsurface water into the mixed layer are reduced, and the associated E1 Nino is enhanced. Related to this positive feedback, the simulated FWF bias is clearly reflected in SSS and SST simulations, with a positive FWF perturbation into the ocean corresponding to a low SSS and a small surface ocean density in the western-central equatorial Pacific warm pool.展开更多
The characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer height over the global ocean were studied based on the Constellation Observation System of Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC) refractivity data from 2007 t...The characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer height over the global ocean were studied based on the Constellation Observation System of Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC) refractivity data from 2007 to2012.Results show that the height is much characteristic of seasonal,inter-annual and regional variation.Globally,the spatial distribution of the annual mean top height shows a symmetrical zonal structure,which is more zonal in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere.The boundary layer top is highest in the tropics and gradually decreases towards higher latitudes.The height is in a range of 3 to 3.5 km in the tropics,2 to 2.5 km in the subtropical regions,and 1 to 1.5 km or even lower in middle and high latitudes.The diurnal variation of the top height is not obvious,with the height varying from tens to hundreds of meters.Furthermore,it is different from region to region,some regions have the maximum height during 9:00 to 12:00,others at 15:00 to18:00.展开更多
Ocean salinity is an important variable that affects the ocean stratification.We compared the salinity and ocean stratification in the tropical Pacific derived from the Argo(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanograph...Ocean salinity is an important variable that affects the ocean stratification.We compared the salinity and ocean stratification in the tropical Pacific derived from the Argo(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography data),EN4(Ensemble 4 analysis),SODA(the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis),IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics data),and ORAS4(Ocean Reanalysis System 4)over 2005–2017.Results show that the spatial distribution of climatological mean of sea surface salinity(SSS)in all the products is consistent,and the low salinity region showed large deviation and strong dispersion.The Argo has the smallest RMSE and the highest correlation with the ensemble mean,while the IAP shows a high-salinity deviations relative to other datasets.All the products show high positive correlations between the sea surface density(SSD)and SSS with respect to the deviations of climatological mean from ensemble mean,suggesting that the SSD deviation may be mainly influenced by the SSS deviation.In the aspect of the ocean stratification,the mixed layer depth(MLD)climatological mean in the Argo shows the highest correlation with the ensemble mean,followed by EN4,IAP,ORAS4,and SODA.The Argo and EN4 show thicker barrier layer(BL)relative to the ensemble mean while the SODA displays the largest negative deviation in the tropical western Pacific.Furthermore,the EN4,ORAS4,and IAP underestimate the stability in the upper ocean at the depths of 20–140 m,while Argo overestimates ocean stability.The salinity fronts in the western-central equatorial Pacific from Argo,EN4,and ORAS4 are consistent,while those from SODA and IAP show large deviations with a westward position in amplitude of 0°–6°and 0°–10°,respectively.The SSS trend patterns from all the products are consistent in having ensemble mean with high spatial correlations of 0.95–0.97.展开更多
It has been recognized that salinity variability in the tropical Pacific is closely related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).Here,we use model simulations from 1900 to 2017 to illustrate obvious asymmetrie...It has been recognized that salinity variability in the tropical Pacific is closely related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).Here,we use model simulations from 1900 to 2017 to illustrate obvious asymmetries of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive and negative IPO phases.The amplitude of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive IPO phases is larger than that during negative IPO phases,with a more westward shift of a large Sea Surface Salinity(SSS)anomaly along the equator.Salinity budget analyses show that the asymmetry of salinity variability during positive and negative IPO phases is dominated by the difference in the surface forcing associated with the freshwater flux[FWF,precipitation(P)minus evaporation(E)],with a contribution of 40%–50%near the dateline on the equator.Moreover,the relationships between the salinity variability and its budget terms also show differences in their leadlag correlations during positive and negative IPO phases.These differences in salinity variability during different IPO phases produce asymmetric effects on seawater density which can reduce or enhance upper-ocean stratification.Therefore,the salinity effects may modulate the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),resulting in an enhanced(reduced)El Nino but a reduced(enhanced)La Ni?a during positive(negative)IPO phases by 1.6℃psu^(-1)(1.3℃psu^(-1)),respectively.It is suggested that the asymmetry of salinity variability may be related to the recent change in ENSO amplitude associated with the IPO,which can help elucidate ENSO diversity.展开更多
The study investigated the effects of global direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia, using the CAM3 developed by NCAR. The results showed that carbonaceous aerosols cause nega...The study investigated the effects of global direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia, using the CAM3 developed by NCAR. The results showed that carbonaceous aerosols cause negative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface under clear sky conditions, but positive forcing at the TOA and weak negative forcing at the surface under all sky conditions. Hence, clouds could change the sign of the direct radiative forcing at the TOA, and weaken the forcing at the surface. Carbonaceous aerosols have distinct effects on the summer climate in East Asia. In southern China and India, it caused the surface temperature to increase, but the total cloud cover and precipitation to decrease. However, the opposite effects are caused for most of northern China and Bangladesh. Given the changes in temperature, vertical velocity, and surface streamflow caused by carbonaceous aerosol in this simulation, carbonaceous aerosol could also induce summer precipitation to decrease in southern China but increase in northern China.展开更多
This paper reviews briefly advances in recent research on monsoon by Chinese scholars, including primarily: (1) the establishment of various monsoon indices. In particular, the standardized dynamic seasonal variabi...This paper reviews briefly advances in recent research on monsoon by Chinese scholars, including primarily: (1) the establishment of various monsoon indices. In particular, the standardized dynamic seasonal variability index of the monsoon can delimit the geographical distribution of global monsoon systems and determine quantitatively the date of abrupt change in circulation. (2) The provision of three driving forces for the generation of monsoon. (3) The revelation of the heating-pump action of the Tibetan Plateau, which strengthens southerlies in the southern and southeastern periphery of the Plateau and results in a strong rainfall center from the northern Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Plateau itself. (4) Clarification of the initial onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in the BOB east of 90°E, Indochina Peninsula (ICP) and the South China Sea, of which the rapid northward progression of tropical convection in the Sumatra and the rapid westward movement of the South Asia High to the Indochina Peninsula are the earliest signs. (5) The provision of an integrated mechanism for the onset of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), which emphasizes the integrated impact of sensible heat over Indian Peninsula, the warm advection of the Tibetan Plateau and the sensible heat and latent heat over the Indochina Peninsula on the one hand, and the seasonal phase-lock effect of the northward propagation of low frequency oscillation on the other. (6) The revelation of the "planetary-scale moisture transport large-value band" from the Southern Hemisphere through to the Asian monsoon region and into the North Pacific, which is converged by several large-scale moisture transport belts in the Asian-Australian monsoon regions and whose variation influences directly the temporal and spatial distribution of summer rainfall in China. (7) Presenting the features of the seasonal advance of the EASM, the propagation of intraseasonal oscillation, and their relationship with rainfall in China; indicating that the intraseasonal oscillation of the EASM propagates in the form of a wave-train along the coast and behaves as monsoon surge propagating northward. (8) Describing the interannual and interdecadal variation of Asian monsoon, revealing the factors affecting it, and possible mechanisms of the variation of Asian monsoon. An elementary outlook on the existing problems and future direction of monsoon research is also provided.展开更多
This paper presents a concise summary of recent studies on the long-term variations of haze in NorthChina and on the environmental and dynamic conditions for severe persistent haze events. Resultsindicate that haze da...This paper presents a concise summary of recent studies on the long-term variations of haze in NorthChina and on the environmental and dynamic conditions for severe persistent haze events. Resultsindicate that haze days have an obviously rising trend over the past 50 years in North China. Theoccurrence frequency of persistent haze events has a similar rising trend due to the continuous riseof winter temperatures, decrease of surface wind speeds, and aggravation of atmospheric stability. InNorth China, when severe persistent haze events occur, anomalous southwesterly winds prevail in thelower troposphere, providing sufficient moisture for the formation of haze. Moreover, North China ismainly controlled by a deep downdraft in the mid-lower troposphere, which contributes to reducing thethickness of the planetary boundary layer, obviously reducing the atmospheric capacity for pollutants.This atmospheric circulation and sinking motion provide favorable conditions for the formation andmaintenance of haze in North China.展开更多
Air mass is inter-hemispherically redistributed, leading to an interesting phenomenon known as the Inter-Hemispheric Oscillation (IHO). In the present article, the seasonality of the interannual IHO has been examine...Air mass is inter-hemispherically redistributed, leading to an interesting phenomenon known as the Inter-Hemispheric Oscillation (IHO). In the present article, the seasonality of the interannual IHO has been examined by employing monthly mean reanalyses from NCEP/NCAR, EAR40, and JRA25 for the period of 1958–2006. It is found that the IHO indices as calculated from different reanalyses are generally consistent with each other. A distinct seesaw structure in all four seasons between the northern and southern hemispheres is observed as the IHO signature in both the surface air pressure anomalies (SAPAs) and the leading EOF component of the anomalous zonal mean quantities. When the SAPAs are positive (negative) in the northern hemisphere, they are negative (positive) in the southern hemisphere. Large values of SAPAs are usually observed in mid- and high-latitude areas in all but the solstice seasons. In boreal summer and winter, relatively stronger perturbations of IHO-related SAPA are found in the Asian monsoon region, which shows a large difference from the status in boreal spring and fall. This suggests that seasonal mean monsoon activity is globally linked via air mass redistribution globally on interannual timescales, showing a very interesting linkage between monsoons and the IHO in the global domain. In all seasons, large values of SAPA always exist over the Antarctic and the surrounding regions, implying a close relation with Antarctic oscillations.展开更多
Trace element(TE) and rare earth element(REE) contents in red soils from the Dongting Lake area of China were determined to understanding the provenance and weathering characteristics of the red soils.The results show...Trace element(TE) and rare earth element(REE) contents in red soils from the Dongting Lake area of China were determined to understanding the provenance and weathering characteristics of the red soils.The results showed similar REE distribution patterns among red soils from the Dongting Lake area,Xiashu loess from Zhenjiang,loess and Pliocene red soil from the Loess Plateau.These patterns implied a similar provenance from dust-storms,except for red soil R5 which formed by bedrock weathering and had significant light REE(LREE) enrichment and heavy REE(HREE) depletion due to longer weathering periods and higher intensity of weathering.Trace element,especially the Rb/Sr and Li/Ba ratios,and REE,especially the LREE/HREE ratio and δEu could trace weathering intensity.Higher Rb/Sr,Li/Ba,and LREE/HREE ratios and negative Eu anomalies were present in the red soils from the Dongting Lake area.The weathering intensity was in the decreasing order of R5 in the Dongting Lake area > red soils from the Dongting Lake area(including reticulate red soil,weak reticulate red soil,and homogeneous red soil formed by dust storms) > Xiashu loess from Zhenjiang > loess-paleosol and Pliocene red soil from the Loess Plateau.Variations in the TE and REE contents of soil could be effectively used to study the provenance and the weathering intensity.展开更多
To investigate the impacts of the diurnal cycle on tropical cyclones (TCs),a set of idealized simulations were conducted by specifying different radiation (i.e.,nighttime-only,daytime-only,full diurnal cycle).It w...To investigate the impacts of the diurnal cycle on tropical cyclones (TCs),a set of idealized simulations were conducted by specifying different radiation (i.e.,nighttime-only,daytime-only,full diurnal cycle).It was found that,for an initially weak storm,it developed faster during nighttime than daytime.The impacts of radiation were not only on TC intensification,but also on TC structure and size.The nighttime storm tended to have a larger size than its daytime counterparts.During nighttime,the radiative cooling steepened the lapse rate and thus reduced the static stability in cloudy regions,enhancing convection.Diabatic heating associated with outer convection induced boundary layer inflows,which led to outward expansion of tangential winds and thus increased the storm size.展开更多
By using the dataset of CMA-STI Tropical Cyclone Optimal Tracks, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and intensive surface observations, a study is performed of the influences of a low-latitude monsoon surge on the longer persistenc...By using the dataset of CMA-STI Tropical Cyclone Optimal Tracks, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and intensive surface observations, a study is performed of the influences of a low-latitude monsoon surge on the longer persistence and increase in torrential rains from the landing tropical storm Bilis. Results suggest that the southwest monsoon was anomalously active after Bilis came ashore. The westerly winds in Bilis's south side might give rise to the poleward movement of the SW monsoon, thus enlarging the pressure gradient between Bilis and the anticyclonic circulation to the south with the result of greatly intensified SW monsoon, which fueled plentiful water vapor, heat and momentum into the declining Bilis and allowed its long stay over land instead of erosion and disappearance. Before Bilis's landfall, the 2006 East Asian monsoon surge, characterized by the atmospheric ISO, experienced remarkable northward propagation. After landfall, the strong surge and powerful low frequency vapor convergence were just on the south side of Bilis, resulting in sharply increased rainfall. In addition, a broad belt of high-valued vapor fluxes extended from the eastern Arabian Sea via the Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula and the South China Sea into the south of China. The belt was linked with the SW monsoon surge forming a moist tongue stretching from the Bay of Bengal to the south of China, which supplied continuously abundant vapor for Bilis along with the surge propagating poleward.展开更多
This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for ...This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean(BREM) and superensemble(SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean(EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.展开更多
The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated according to its relationship with El Nio/La Nia (EN/LN) using monthly products from ICOADS. The SCS SS...The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated according to its relationship with El Nio/La Nia (EN/LN) using monthly products from ICOADS. The SCS SST bears two peaks associated with EN/LN and shows the asymmetric features. Coinciding with the mature phase of EN/LN, the first SST warming/cooling peaks in December(0)-February(1) (DJF(1)) and centers in the southern part. The major difference is in the amplitude associated with the strength of EN/LN. However, the SCS SST anomaly shows distinct difference after the mature phase of EN/LN. The EN SST warm-ing develops a mid-summer peak in June-August(1) (JJA(1)) and persists up to September-October(1), with the same amplitude of the first warming peak. Whereas the LN SST cooling peaks in May(1), it decays slowly until the end of the year, with amplitude much weaker. Comparing with SST and atmospheric circulations, the weak response and early termination of the second cooling is due to the failure of the cyclonic wind anomalies to develop in the northwest Pacific during JJA(1).展开更多
Land-atmosphere coupling is a key process of the climate system, and various coupling mechanisms have been proposed before based on observational and numerical analyses. The impact of soil moisture(SM) on evapotrans...Land-atmosphere coupling is a key process of the climate system, and various coupling mechanisms have been proposed before based on observational and numerical analyses. The impact of soil moisture(SM) on evapotranspiration(ET) and further surface temperature(ST) is an important aspect of such coupling. Using ERA-Interim data and CLM4.0 offline simulation results, this study further explores the relationships between SM/ST and ET to better understand the complex nature of the land-atmosphere coupling(i.e., spatial and seasonal variations) in eastern China, a typical monsoon area. It is found that two diagnostics of land-atmosphere coupling(i.e., SM-ET correlation and ST-ET correlation) are highly dependent on the climatology of SM and ST. By combining the SM-ET and ST-ET relationships, two "hot spots" of land-atmosphere coupling over eastern China are identified: Southwest China and North China. In Southwest China, ST is relatively high throughout the year, but SM is lowest in spring, resulting in a strong coupling in spring. However, in North China, SM is relatively low throughout the year, but ST is highest in summer, which leads to the strongest coupling in summer. Our results emphasize the dependence of land-atmosphere coupling on the seasonal evolution of climatic conditions and have implications for future studies related to land surface feedbacks.展开更多
In this study, regional persistent haze events(RPHEs) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei(BTH) region were identified based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events for the period 1980–201...In this study, regional persistent haze events(RPHEs) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei(BTH) region were identified based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events for the period 1980–2013. The formation mechanisms of the severe RPHEs were investigated with focus on the atmospheric circulation and dynamic mechanisms. Results indicated that:(1) 49 RPHEs occurred during the past 34 years.(2) The severe RPHEs could be categorized into two types according to the large-scale circulation, i.e. the zonal westerly airflow(ZWA) type and the high-pressure ridge(HPR) type. When the ZWA-type RPHEs occurred, the BTH region was controlled by near zonal westerly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere.Southwesterly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere, and near-surface wind speeds were only 1–2 ms^-1. Warm and humid air originating from the northwestern Pacific was transported into the region, where the relative humidity was 70% to 80%, creating favorable moisture conditions. When the HPR-type RPHEs appeared, northwesterly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere controlled the region. Westerly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere and the moisture conditions were relatively weak.(3) Descending motion in the mid-lower troposphere caused by the above two circulation types provided a crucial dynamic mechanism for the formation of the two types of RPHEs. The descending motion contributed to a reduction in the height of the planetary boundary layer(PBL), which generated an inversion in the lower troposphere. This inversion trapped the abundant pollution and moisture in the lower PBL, leading to high concentrations of pollutants.展开更多
Freshwater flux (FWF) directly affects sea surface salinity (SSS) and hence modulates sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. This paper quantifies a positive correlation between FWF and SST using...Freshwater flux (FWF) directly affects sea surface salinity (SSS) and hence modulates sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. This paper quantifies a positive correlation between FWF and SST using observations and simulations of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to analyze the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. Comparisons among the displacements of FWF, SSS and SST interannual variabilities illustrate that a large FWF variability is located in the west-central equatorial Pacific, covarying with a large SSS variability, whereas a large SST variability is located in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Most CMIP5 models can reproduce the fact that FWF leads to positive feedback to SST through an SSS anomaly as observed. However, the difference in each model's performance results from different simulation capabilities of the CMIP5 models in the magnitudes and positions of the interannual variabilities, including the mixed layer depth and the buoyancy flux in the equatorial Pacific. SSS anomalies simulated from the CMIP5 multi-model are sensitive to FWF interannual anomalies, which can lead to differences in feedback to interannual SST variabilities. The relationships among the FWF, SSS and SST interannual variabilities can be derived using linear quantitative measures from observations and the CMIP5 multi-model simulations. A 1 mm d-1 FWF anomaly corresponds to an SSS anomaly of nearly 0.12 psu in the western tropical Pacific and a 0.11℃ SST anomaly in the eastern tropical Pacific.展开更多
Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional...Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model),basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County,Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety(FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides.展开更多
In this study, a group of indices were defined regarding intensity (P), area (S) and central position (λc, Фc) of the Aleutian low (AL) in the Northern Hemisphere in winter, using seasonal and monthly mean h...In this study, a group of indices were defined regarding intensity (P), area (S) and central position (λc, Фc) of the Aleutian low (AL) in the Northern Hemisphere in winter, using seasonal and monthly mean height field at 1000-hPa. These indices were calculated over 60 winter seasons from 1948/1949 to 2007/2008 using reanalysis data. Climatic and anomalous characteristics of the AL were analyzed based on these indices and relationships between the AL, and general circulations were explored using correlations between indicesP, λc, and Pacific SST, as well as Northern Hemisphere temperature and precipitation. The main results are these: (1) AL is the strongest in January, when the center shifts to the south and west of its climatological position, and it is the weakest in December when the center shifts to the north and east. (2) AL intensity (P) is negatively correlated with its longitude (λc): a deeper low occurs toward the east and a shallower low occurs toward the west. On a decadal scale, the AL has been persistently strong and has shifted eastward since the 1970s, but reversal signs have been observed in recent years. (3) The AL is stronger and is located toward the east during strong E1 Nifio winters and vice versa during strong La Nifia years; this tendency is particularly evident after 1975. The AL is also strongly correlated with SST in the North Pacific. It intensifies and moves eastward with negative SST anomalies, and it weakens and moves westward with positive SST anomalies. (4) Maps of significance correlation between AL intensity and Northern Hemisphere temperature and rainfall resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern in mid-latitudes in the North Pacific and across North America. The AL and the Mongolian High are two permanent atmospheric pressure systems adjacent to each other during boreal winter over the middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, but their relationships with the E1 Nifio/La Nifia events and with temperature and precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere are significantly different.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275013,42030611 and 42175008)the Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(Grant No.2021LASWB17)。
文摘An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant Nos.41376039,41376019,and 41475101)the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(Grant No.U1406401)+4 种基金the NSFC Innovative Group Grant(Project No.41421005)the IOCAS[Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)]through the CAS Strategic Priority Project[Western Pacific Ocean System(WPOS)]supported by the Joint Center for Global Change Studies(Project No.105019)the Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,NUIST(Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology)(Grant No.KLME 1311)the Priority Academic Program Development(PAPD)of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘The climatology and interannual variability of sea surface salinity (SSS) and freshwater flux (FWF) in the equatorial Pacific are analyzed and evaluated using simulations from the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM). The simulated annual climatology and interannual variations of SSS, FWF, mixed layer depth (MLD), and buoyancy flux agree with those observed in the equatorial Pacific. The relationships among the interannual anomaly fields simulated by BNU-ESM are analyzed to illustrate the climate feedbacks induced by FWF in the tropical Pacific. The largest interannual variations of SSS and FWF are located in the western-central equatorial Pacific. A positive FWF feedback effect on sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific is identified. As a response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the interannual variation of FWF induces ocean processes which, in turn, enhance ENSO. During El Nino, a positive FWF anomaly in the western-central Pacific (an indication of increased precipitation rates) acts to enhance a negative salinity anomaly and a negative surface ocean density anomaly, leading to stable stratification in the upper ocean. Hence, the vertical mixing and entrainment of subsurface water into the mixed layer are reduced, and the associated E1 Nino is enhanced. Related to this positive feedback, the simulated FWF bias is clearly reflected in SSS and SST simulations, with a positive FWF perturbation into the ocean corresponding to a low SSS and a small surface ocean density in the western-central equatorial Pacific warm pool.
文摘The characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer height over the global ocean were studied based on the Constellation Observation System of Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC) refractivity data from 2007 to2012.Results show that the height is much characteristic of seasonal,inter-annual and regional variation.Globally,the spatial distribution of the annual mean top height shows a symmetrical zonal structure,which is more zonal in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere.The boundary layer top is highest in the tropics and gradually decreases towards higher latitudes.The height is in a range of 3 to 3.5 km in the tropics,2 to 2.5 km in the subtropical regions,and 1 to 1.5 km or even lower in middle and high latitudes.The diurnal variation of the top height is not obvious,with the height varying from tens to hundreds of meters.Furthermore,it is different from region to region,some regions have the maximum height during 9:00 to 12:00,others at 15:00 to18:00.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program on MonitoringEarly Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster (No.2019YFC1510004)the Laoshan Laboratory (No.LSKJ202202403)。
文摘Ocean salinity is an important variable that affects the ocean stratification.We compared the salinity and ocean stratification in the tropical Pacific derived from the Argo(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography data),EN4(Ensemble 4 analysis),SODA(the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis),IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics data),and ORAS4(Ocean Reanalysis System 4)over 2005–2017.Results show that the spatial distribution of climatological mean of sea surface salinity(SSS)in all the products is consistent,and the low salinity region showed large deviation and strong dispersion.The Argo has the smallest RMSE and the highest correlation with the ensemble mean,while the IAP shows a high-salinity deviations relative to other datasets.All the products show high positive correlations between the sea surface density(SSD)and SSS with respect to the deviations of climatological mean from ensemble mean,suggesting that the SSD deviation may be mainly influenced by the SSS deviation.In the aspect of the ocean stratification,the mixed layer depth(MLD)climatological mean in the Argo shows the highest correlation with the ensemble mean,followed by EN4,IAP,ORAS4,and SODA.The Argo and EN4 show thicker barrier layer(BL)relative to the ensemble mean while the SODA displays the largest negative deviation in the tropical western Pacific.Furthermore,the EN4,ORAS4,and IAP underestimate the stability in the upper ocean at the depths of 20–140 m,while Argo overestimates ocean stability.The salinity fronts in the western-central equatorial Pacific from Argo,EN4,and ORAS4 are consistent,while those from SODA and IAP show large deviations with a westward position in amplitude of 0°–6°and 0°–10°,respectively.The SSS trend patterns from all the products are consistent in having ensemble mean with high spatial correlations of 0.95–0.97.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFCGrant No.42030410)+3 种基金the Laoshan Laboratory(Grant No.LSKJ202202403)the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster(Grant Nos.2019YFC1510004,2020YFA0608902)supported by the NSFC(Grant No.41976026)supported by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST。
文摘It has been recognized that salinity variability in the tropical Pacific is closely related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).Here,we use model simulations from 1900 to 2017 to illustrate obvious asymmetries of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive and negative IPO phases.The amplitude of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive IPO phases is larger than that during negative IPO phases,with a more westward shift of a large Sea Surface Salinity(SSS)anomaly along the equator.Salinity budget analyses show that the asymmetry of salinity variability during positive and negative IPO phases is dominated by the difference in the surface forcing associated with the freshwater flux[FWF,precipitation(P)minus evaporation(E)],with a contribution of 40%–50%near the dateline on the equator.Moreover,the relationships between the salinity variability and its budget terms also show differences in their leadlag correlations during positive and negative IPO phases.These differences in salinity variability during different IPO phases produce asymmetric effects on seawater density which can reduce or enhance upper-ocean stratification.Therefore,the salinity effects may modulate the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),resulting in an enhanced(reduced)El Nino but a reduced(enhanced)La Ni?a during positive(negative)IPO phases by 1.6℃psu^(-1)(1.3℃psu^(-1)),respectively.It is suggested that the asymmetry of salinity variability may be related to the recent change in ENSO amplitude associated with the IPO,which can help elucidate ENSO diversity.
基金supported by Na-tional Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2006CB403707)the public Meteorology Special Foundation of MOST (Grant No. GYHY200706036)the National Key Technology R & D Program (Grant No.2007BAC03A0)
文摘The study investigated the effects of global direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia, using the CAM3 developed by NCAR. The results showed that carbonaceous aerosols cause negative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface under clear sky conditions, but positive forcing at the TOA and weak negative forcing at the surface under all sky conditions. Hence, clouds could change the sign of the direct radiative forcing at the TOA, and weaken the forcing at the surface. Carbonaceous aerosols have distinct effects on the summer climate in East Asia. In southern China and India, it caused the surface temperature to increase, but the total cloud cover and precipitation to decrease. However, the opposite effects are caused for most of northern China and Bangladesh. Given the changes in temperature, vertical velocity, and surface streamflow caused by carbonaceous aerosol in this simulation, carbonaceous aerosol could also induce summer precipitation to decrease in southern China but increase in northern China.
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40633018 40675056)the key project A of the State Ministry of Science and Technology of China "South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX)".
文摘This paper reviews briefly advances in recent research on monsoon by Chinese scholars, including primarily: (1) the establishment of various monsoon indices. In particular, the standardized dynamic seasonal variability index of the monsoon can delimit the geographical distribution of global monsoon systems and determine quantitatively the date of abrupt change in circulation. (2) The provision of three driving forces for the generation of monsoon. (3) The revelation of the heating-pump action of the Tibetan Plateau, which strengthens southerlies in the southern and southeastern periphery of the Plateau and results in a strong rainfall center from the northern Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Plateau itself. (4) Clarification of the initial onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in the BOB east of 90°E, Indochina Peninsula (ICP) and the South China Sea, of which the rapid northward progression of tropical convection in the Sumatra and the rapid westward movement of the South Asia High to the Indochina Peninsula are the earliest signs. (5) The provision of an integrated mechanism for the onset of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), which emphasizes the integrated impact of sensible heat over Indian Peninsula, the warm advection of the Tibetan Plateau and the sensible heat and latent heat over the Indochina Peninsula on the one hand, and the seasonal phase-lock effect of the northward propagation of low frequency oscillation on the other. (6) The revelation of the "planetary-scale moisture transport large-value band" from the Southern Hemisphere through to the Asian monsoon region and into the North Pacific, which is converged by several large-scale moisture transport belts in the Asian-Australian monsoon regions and whose variation influences directly the temporal and spatial distribution of summer rainfall in China. (7) Presenting the features of the seasonal advance of the EASM, the propagation of intraseasonal oscillation, and their relationship with rainfall in China; indicating that the intraseasonal oscillation of the EASM propagates in the form of a wave-train along the coast and behaves as monsoon surge propagating northward. (8) Describing the interannual and interdecadal variation of Asian monsoon, revealing the factors affecting it, and possible mechanisms of the variation of Asian monsoon. An elementary outlook on the existing problems and future direction of monsoon research is also provided.
文摘This paper presents a concise summary of recent studies on the long-term variations of haze in NorthChina and on the environmental and dynamic conditions for severe persistent haze events. Resultsindicate that haze days have an obviously rising trend over the past 50 years in North China. Theoccurrence frequency of persistent haze events has a similar rising trend due to the continuous riseof winter temperatures, decrease of surface wind speeds, and aggravation of atmospheric stability. InNorth China, when severe persistent haze events occur, anomalous southwesterly winds prevail in thelower troposphere, providing sufficient moisture for the formation of haze. Moreover, North China ismainly controlled by a deep downdraft in the mid-lower troposphere, which contributes to reducing thethickness of the planetary boundary layer, obviously reducing the atmospheric capacity for pollutants.This atmospheric circulation and sinking motion provide favorable conditions for the formation andmaintenance of haze in North China.
基金supported jointlyby the National Key Technology R&D Program (GrantNo. 2007BAC29B02)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, Grant No. 40675025)the Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST,KLME060101)
文摘Air mass is inter-hemispherically redistributed, leading to an interesting phenomenon known as the Inter-Hemispheric Oscillation (IHO). In the present article, the seasonality of the interannual IHO has been examined by employing monthly mean reanalyses from NCEP/NCAR, EAR40, and JRA25 for the period of 1958–2006. It is found that the IHO indices as calculated from different reanalyses are generally consistent with each other. A distinct seesaw structure in all four seasons between the northern and southern hemispheres is observed as the IHO signature in both the surface air pressure anomalies (SAPAs) and the leading EOF component of the anomalous zonal mean quantities. When the SAPAs are positive (negative) in the northern hemisphere, they are negative (positive) in the southern hemisphere. Large values of SAPAs are usually observed in mid- and high-latitude areas in all but the solstice seasons. In boreal summer and winter, relatively stronger perturbations of IHO-related SAPA are found in the Asian monsoon region, which shows a large difference from the status in boreal spring and fall. This suggests that seasonal mean monsoon activity is globally linked via air mass redistribution globally on interannual timescales, showing a very interesting linkage between monsoons and the IHO in the global domain. In all seasons, large values of SAPA always exist over the Antarctic and the surrounding regions, implying a close relation with Antarctic oscillations.
基金supported by the Science Foundation of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,China(No.20080328)the National Key Technology R&D Program (No.2006BAK21B02)+1 种基金the National Key Basic Research Program (973 Program) of China (No.2003CB415201)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40671016)
文摘Trace element(TE) and rare earth element(REE) contents in red soils from the Dongting Lake area of China were determined to understanding the provenance and weathering characteristics of the red soils.The results showed similar REE distribution patterns among red soils from the Dongting Lake area,Xiashu loess from Zhenjiang,loess and Pliocene red soil from the Loess Plateau.These patterns implied a similar provenance from dust-storms,except for red soil R5 which formed by bedrock weathering and had significant light REE(LREE) enrichment and heavy REE(HREE) depletion due to longer weathering periods and higher intensity of weathering.Trace element,especially the Rb/Sr and Li/Ba ratios,and REE,especially the LREE/HREE ratio and δEu could trace weathering intensity.Higher Rb/Sr,Li/Ba,and LREE/HREE ratios and negative Eu anomalies were present in the red soils from the Dongting Lake area.The weathering intensity was in the decreasing order of R5 in the Dongting Lake area > red soils from the Dongting Lake area(including reticulate red soil,weak reticulate red soil,and homogeneous red soil formed by dust storms) > Xiashu loess from Zhenjiang > loess-paleosol and Pliocene red soil from the Loess Plateau.Variations in the TE and REE contents of soil could be effectively used to study the provenance and the weathering intensity.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275095, 41075037)the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2012CB955204)the Key University Science Research Project of Jiangsu Province (Grant No.14KJA170005)
文摘To investigate the impacts of the diurnal cycle on tropical cyclones (TCs),a set of idealized simulations were conducted by specifying different radiation (i.e.,nighttime-only,daytime-only,full diurnal cycle).It was found that,for an initially weak storm,it developed faster during nighttime than daytime.The impacts of radiation were not only on TC intensification,but also on TC structure and size.The nighttime storm tended to have a larger size than its daytime counterparts.During nighttime,the radiative cooling steepened the lapse rate and thus reduced the static stability in cloudy regions,enhancing convection.Diabatic heating associated with outer convection induced boundary layer inflows,which led to outward expansion of tangential winds and thus increased the storm size.
基金National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2009CB421505)National Key Technology R&D Program (2007BAC29B02)Qing Lan Project of Jiangsu Province
文摘By using the dataset of CMA-STI Tropical Cyclone Optimal Tracks, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and intensive surface observations, a study is performed of the influences of a low-latitude monsoon surge on the longer persistence and increase in torrential rains from the landing tropical storm Bilis. Results suggest that the southwest monsoon was anomalously active after Bilis came ashore. The westerly winds in Bilis's south side might give rise to the poleward movement of the SW monsoon, thus enlarging the pressure gradient between Bilis and the anticyclonic circulation to the south with the result of greatly intensified SW monsoon, which fueled plentiful water vapor, heat and momentum into the declining Bilis and allowed its long stay over land instead of erosion and disappearance. Before Bilis's landfall, the 2006 East Asian monsoon surge, characterized by the atmospheric ISO, experienced remarkable northward propagation. After landfall, the strong surge and powerful low frequency vapor convergence were just on the south side of Bilis, resulting in sharply increased rainfall. In addition, a broad belt of high-valued vapor fluxes extended from the eastern Arabian Sea via the Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula and the South China Sea into the south of China. The belt was linked with the SW monsoon surge forming a moist tongue stretching from the Bay of Bengal to the south of China, which supplied continuously abundant vapor for Bilis along with the surge propagating poleward.
基金Special Research Program for Public Welfare(Meteorology)of China(GYHY200906009,GYHY201006015,GYHY200906007)National Natural Science Foundation of China(4107503541475044)
文摘This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean(BREM) and superensemble(SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean(EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB955603,2010CB950302)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05090404,LT-0ZZ1202)
文摘The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated according to its relationship with El Nio/La Nia (EN/LN) using monthly products from ICOADS. The SCS SST bears two peaks associated with EN/LN and shows the asymmetric features. Coinciding with the mature phase of EN/LN, the first SST warming/cooling peaks in December(0)-February(1) (DJF(1)) and centers in the southern part. The major difference is in the amplitude associated with the strength of EN/LN. However, the SCS SST anomaly shows distinct difference after the mature phase of EN/LN. The EN SST warm-ing develops a mid-summer peak in June-August(1) (JJA(1)) and persists up to September-October(1), with the same amplitude of the first warming peak. Whereas the LN SST cooling peaks in May(1), it decays slowly until the end of the year, with amplitude much weaker. Comparing with SST and atmospheric circulations, the weak response and early termination of the second cooling is due to the failure of the cyclonic wind anomalies to develop in the northwest Pacific during JJA(1).
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41625019 and 41605042)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,China(Grant No.BK20151525)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘Land-atmosphere coupling is a key process of the climate system, and various coupling mechanisms have been proposed before based on observational and numerical analyses. The impact of soil moisture(SM) on evapotranspiration(ET) and further surface temperature(ST) is an important aspect of such coupling. Using ERA-Interim data and CLM4.0 offline simulation results, this study further explores the relationships between SM/ST and ET to better understand the complex nature of the land-atmosphere coupling(i.e., spatial and seasonal variations) in eastern China, a typical monsoon area. It is found that two diagnostics of land-atmosphere coupling(i.e., SM-ET correlation and ST-ET correlation) are highly dependent on the climatology of SM and ST. By combining the SM-ET and ST-ET relationships, two "hot spots" of land-atmosphere coupling over eastern China are identified: Southwest China and North China. In Southwest China, ST is relatively high throughout the year, but SM is lowest in spring, resulting in a strong coupling in spring. However, in North China, SM is relatively low throughout the year, but ST is highest in summer, which leads to the strongest coupling in summer. Our results emphasize the dependence of land-atmosphere coupling on the seasonal evolution of climatic conditions and have implications for future studies related to land surface feedbacks.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(Grant No.2013CB430202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41401056)+1 种基金the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(Grant No.GYHY201406001)the Research Innovation Program for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYLX15 0858)
文摘In this study, regional persistent haze events(RPHEs) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei(BTH) region were identified based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events for the period 1980–2013. The formation mechanisms of the severe RPHEs were investigated with focus on the atmospheric circulation and dynamic mechanisms. Results indicated that:(1) 49 RPHEs occurred during the past 34 years.(2) The severe RPHEs could be categorized into two types according to the large-scale circulation, i.e. the zonal westerly airflow(ZWA) type and the high-pressure ridge(HPR) type. When the ZWA-type RPHEs occurred, the BTH region was controlled by near zonal westerly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere.Southwesterly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere, and near-surface wind speeds were only 1–2 ms^-1. Warm and humid air originating from the northwestern Pacific was transported into the region, where the relative humidity was 70% to 80%, creating favorable moisture conditions. When the HPR-type RPHEs appeared, northwesterly airflow in the mid–upper troposphere controlled the region. Westerly winds prevailed in the lower troposphere and the moisture conditions were relatively weak.(3) Descending motion in the mid-lower troposphere caused by the above two circulation types provided a crucial dynamic mechanism for the formation of the two types of RPHEs. The descending motion contributed to a reduction in the height of the planetary boundary layer(PBL), which generated an inversion in the lower troposphere. This inversion trapped the abundant pollution and moisture in the lower PBL, leading to high concentrations of pollutants.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)(Grant Nos.41376039,41376019 and 41475101)the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No.U1406401)+3 种基金the NSFC Innovative Group Grant (Project No.41421005)the Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS) through the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Project [the Western Pacific Ocean System (WPOS)]supported by the Joint Center for Global Change Studies (Project No.105019)the Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘Freshwater flux (FWF) directly affects sea surface salinity (SSS) and hence modulates sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. This paper quantifies a positive correlation between FWF and SST using observations and simulations of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to analyze the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. Comparisons among the displacements of FWF, SSS and SST interannual variabilities illustrate that a large FWF variability is located in the west-central equatorial Pacific, covarying with a large SSS variability, whereas a large SST variability is located in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Most CMIP5 models can reproduce the fact that FWF leads to positive feedback to SST through an SSS anomaly as observed. However, the difference in each model's performance results from different simulation capabilities of the CMIP5 models in the magnitudes and positions of the interannual variabilities, including the mixed layer depth and the buoyancy flux in the equatorial Pacific. SSS anomalies simulated from the CMIP5 multi-model are sensitive to FWF interannual anomalies, which can lead to differences in feedback to interannual SST variabilities. The relationships among the FWF, SSS and SST interannual variabilities can be derived using linear quantitative measures from observations and the CMIP5 multi-model simulations. A 1 mm d-1 FWF anomaly corresponds to an SSS anomaly of nearly 0.12 psu in the western tropical Pacific and a 0.11℃ SST anomaly in the eastern tropical Pacific.
基金supported by The National Basic Research Program of China(973)(Grant No.2013CB430106)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375108)Scientific Research&Innovation Projects for Academic Degree students of ordinary Universities of Jiangsu(Grant No.CXLX13_474)
文摘Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model),basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County,Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety(FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides.
基金supported by National Key Technology Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2007BAC29B02)the National Basic Research Program of China’s 973 Program (Grant Nos.2010CB950502 and 2010CB428904)the project funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)
文摘In this study, a group of indices were defined regarding intensity (P), area (S) and central position (λc, Фc) of the Aleutian low (AL) in the Northern Hemisphere in winter, using seasonal and monthly mean height field at 1000-hPa. These indices were calculated over 60 winter seasons from 1948/1949 to 2007/2008 using reanalysis data. Climatic and anomalous characteristics of the AL were analyzed based on these indices and relationships between the AL, and general circulations were explored using correlations between indicesP, λc, and Pacific SST, as well as Northern Hemisphere temperature and precipitation. The main results are these: (1) AL is the strongest in January, when the center shifts to the south and west of its climatological position, and it is the weakest in December when the center shifts to the north and east. (2) AL intensity (P) is negatively correlated with its longitude (λc): a deeper low occurs toward the east and a shallower low occurs toward the west. On a decadal scale, the AL has been persistently strong and has shifted eastward since the 1970s, but reversal signs have been observed in recent years. (3) The AL is stronger and is located toward the east during strong E1 Nifio winters and vice versa during strong La Nifia years; this tendency is particularly evident after 1975. The AL is also strongly correlated with SST in the North Pacific. It intensifies and moves eastward with negative SST anomalies, and it weakens and moves westward with positive SST anomalies. (4) Maps of significance correlation between AL intensity and Northern Hemisphere temperature and rainfall resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern in mid-latitudes in the North Pacific and across North America. The AL and the Mongolian High are two permanent atmospheric pressure systems adjacent to each other during boreal winter over the middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, but their relationships with the E1 Nifio/La Nifia events and with temperature and precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere are significantly different.