Study on the physical meaning of seismic inhomogeneous degree by rock fracture experiments

It is observed that the parameter of seismic inhomogeneous degree (GL value) calculated from the earthquake catalog shows obvious abnormal changes prior to strong earthquakes, indicating the state change of local seismic activity. This paper focuses on the mechanism for the abnormal changes of the GL values based on the sequences of acoustic emission for three types of rock samples containing macro-asperity fracture; compressional en-echelon fracture and model-III shear fracture. The results show that for the three types of rock samples, there are continuous abnormal changes of GL value (>1) just before the non-elastic deformation occurs or during the process of nucleation prior to the instability. Based on the experimental results, it seems that the process of creep sliding and resistance-uniformization along fault zone is the possible mechanism for the abnormal changes of GL value before rock fractures.

Improved stress release model: Application to the study of earthquake prediction in Taiwan Region

Stress release model used to be applied to seismicity study of large historical earthquakes in a space of large scale. In this paper, we improve the stress release model, and discuss whether the stress release model is still applicable or not in the case of smaller spatio-temporal scale and weaker earthquakes. As an example of testing the model, we have analyzed the M greater than or equal 6 earthquakes in recent about 100 years. The result shows that the stress release model is still applicable. The earthquake conditional probability intensity in Taiwan Region is calculated with the improved stress release model. We see that accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the improved stress release model is higher than that by Poisson model in the test of retrospect earthquake prediction.

On the Consistency of Large Earthquake Moment and Strain Rate Inferred from GPS Data in North China

The new GPS data can map crustal strain rates over large areas with a useful degree of precision. Stable strain measurement results open the door for improved estimates of earthquake occurrence. The Kostrov’s formula (1974) translates the smoothed strain rates in North China into geodetic moment rates. In North China, the ratio of seismic moment released to moment accumulated from GPS measurement is 60.6% in NS direction, 68.9% in EW direction, and 104.1% in NE shear direction. The near unit ratio points to the reliability of GPS measurements there. The combination of historical seismicity and GPS measurement offers a powerful attack on earthquake hazard.

Co-seismic Slip Distribution of the 2001 Kokoxili Earthquake Inverted by the GPS Data

The authors analyze co_seismic displacement field derived from the Global Position System (GPS) observations collected before and after the 2001 Kokoxili earthquake, western China. Using the co_seismic displacement data, and constrained with surface rupture data, they invert co_seismic slip distribution along the seismic fault. Their result shows that the earthquake ruptured the upper crust down to a depth of 13.1～22km (at 70% certainty), with its optimal estimate at 16.5km. A 2～3m left_lateral strike slip is resolved between the Sun Lake segment and the west end of the main rupture zone, although surface rupture has not been observed there. The surface rupture of this earthquake is ended at the Sun Lake to the west, but left_lateral slip of 1.5～2.0m seems to exist beyond the east end of surface rupture observed from field geology. Seismic moment release estimated using GPS and surface rupture measurement is 6.0×10 20 N·m, which is in good agreement with the result obtained from seismic wave inversion.

Study on displacement field generated by aftershocks in Landers earthquake fault zone and its adjacent areas

The displacement field generated by aftershocks in Landers earthquake fault zone and its adjacent areas is calculated in this study. The result is compared with the displacement field of the main shock calculated by co-seismic slip model of Wald and Heaton (1994). The result shows that the direction of displacement generated by aftershocks in Landers seismic fault plane and its adjacent areas is consistent with that generated by main shock. The rupture of aftershock is generally inherited from main shock. The displacement generated by aftershocks is up to an order of centimeter and can be measured by GPS sites nearby. So when we use geodetic data measured after earthquake to study the geophysical problems such as crustal viscosity structure, afterslip distribution, etc., only the displacement field generated by aftershocks considered, can uncertainty be reduced to minimum and realistic result be obtained.

Impending HRT wave precursors to the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake and methods of earthquake impending prediction by using HRT wave

We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT wave precursor at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km) and found that significant impending signal had been recorded at the station in the early morning ( 0―5 am) of 12th of May, 2008. The precursor for this earthquake is consistent with precursors recorded for other strong earthquakes. The measured physical properties (geo-resistivity and telluric-current) show tidal wave period oscillations from several days to several months before the earthquakes and the amplitude of such HT oscillation increases significantly towards the occurrence of an earthquake. These HT and RT waves from the epicenter have a causal relationship with the earthquakes that happened several days later. The arrival time of two RT waves is proportional to the distance from the station to the epicenter. The estimated natural decay of the amplitude is correlated with the natural period (T0) of the earthquake fault, which is proportional to the fault length. From this relationship, we can predict the earthquake magnitude. For magnitude 6―9 earthquakes, the natural period is about 1―6 hours. Such oscillation comes from the epicenter area and they can propagate several thousand kilometers in the Earth's crust. Before a strong earthquake in the shallow crust, the conductive pore fluid will experience major changes before the fault rapture. Such fluid change will emit an oscillation in the pore fluid pressure. This is the mechanism for the HRT wave generation. Since the China Earthquake Administration funded the HRT wave short-term earth-quake prediction project in 2003, the first record of HRT precursor wave has been recorded from the 2004-12-26 Sumatra Mw9.0 earthquake with the largest epicentre distance Δ=2900 km. Thereafter, we have captured HRT waves from more than twenty strong earthquakes, which are well-matched and show repeatability, consistency and regularity. All our observation with the HRT waves demonstrate that HRT wave precursors to earthquakes indeed exist. Strong earthquakes can be predicted and short-term and impending earthquake prediction is achievable in the very near future. From all the observations, including the ones at HG station from Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we conclude that using HRT wave to predict earthquakes is feasible.