Probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea

The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.

A Comparative Study on the Post-Buckling Behavior of Reinforced Thermoplastic Pipes(RTPs)Under External Pressure Considering Progressive Failure

The collapse pressure is a key parameter when RTPs are applied in harsh deep-water environments.To investigate the collapse of RTPs,numerical simulations and hydrostatic pressure tests are conducted.For the numerical simulations,the eigenvalue analysis and Riks analysis are combined,in which the Hashin failure criterion and fracture energy stiffness degradation model are used to simulate the progressive failure of composites,and the“infinite”boundary conditions are applied to eliminate the boundary effects.As for the hydrostatic pressure tests,RTP specimens were placed in a hydrostatic chamber after filled with water.It has been observed that the cross-section of the middle part collapses when it reaches the maximum pressure.The collapse pressure obtained from the numerical simulations agrees well with that in the experiment.Meanwhile,the applicability of NASA SP-8007 formula on the collapse pressure prediction was also discussed.It has a relatively greater difference because of the ignorance of the progressive failure of composites.For the parametric study,it is found that RTPs have much higher first-ply-failure pressure when the winding angles are between 50°and 70°.Besides,the effect of debonding and initial ovality,and the contribution of the liner and coating are also discussed.

Joint Probability Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Conditions in Liaodong Bay

Sea ice conditions in Liaodong Bay of China are often described by sea ice grades,which classify annual sea ice conditions based on the annual maximum sea ice thickness(AM-SIT)and annual maximum floating ice extent(AM-FIE).The joint probability distribution of AM-SIT and AM-FIE was established on the basis of their data pairs from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020 in Liaodong Bay.The joint intensity index of the sea ice condition in the current year is calculated,and the joint classification criteria of the sea ice grades in past years are established on the basis of the joint intensity index series.A comparison of the joint criteria with the 1973 and 2022 criteria revealed that the joint criteria of the sea ice grade match well,and the joint intensity index can be used to quantify the sea ice condition over the years.A time series analysis of the sea ice grades and the joint intensity index sequences based on the joint criteria are then performed.Results show a decreasing trend of the sea ice condition from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020,a mutation in 1990/1991,and a period of approximately 91 years of the sea ice condition.In addition,the Gray-Markov model(GMM)is applied to predict the joint sea ice grade and the joint intensity index of the sea ice condition series in future years,and the error between the results and the actual sea ice condition in 2020/2021 is small.

Experimental investigation of the inhibition of deep-sea mining sediment plumes by polyaluminum chloride

Deep-sea sediment disturbance may occur when collecting polymetallic nodules,resulting in the creation of plumes that could have a negative impact on the ecological environment.This study aims to investigate the potential solution of using polyaluminum chloride(PAC)in the water jet.The effects of PAC are examined through a self-designed simulation system for deep-sea polymetallic nodule collection and sediment samples from a potential deep-sea mining area.The experimental results showed that the optimal PAC dose was found to be 0.75 g/L.Compared with the test conditions without the addition of PAC,the presence of PAC leads to a reduction in volume,lower characteristic turbidity,smaller diffusion velocity,and shorter settling time of the plume.This indicates that PAC inhibits the entire development process of the plume.The addition of PAC leads to the flocculation of mm-sized particles,resulting in the formation of cm-sized flocs.The flocculation of particles decreases the rate of erosion on the seabed by around 30%.This reduction in erosion helps to decrease the formation of plumes.Additionally,when the size of suspended particles increases,it reduces the scale at which they diffuse.Furthermore,the settling velocity of flocs(around 10^(-2) m/s)is much higher that of compared to sediment particles(around 10^(-5) m/s),which effectively reduces the amount of time the plume remains in suspension.

Experimental Study on Vortex-Induced Vibration of Rough Risers Coupling with Interference Effect in Tandem Arrangement

In order to study the response law of vortex-induced vibration(VIV)of marine risers under the combined action of roughness and interference effects,and to reveal the coupling mechanism of roughness and interference effects on the riser,a VIV experiment of rough risers in tandem arrangement was conducted in a wave−current combined flume.The experiment characterized the risers’roughness by arranging different specifications of attachments on the surface of the risers.Three rough risers with different roughness and smooth risers were arranged in tandem arrangement,with the rough risers arranged downstream.The experimental results indicate that the suppression of the attachments on the downstream risers’vibration are more significant both in the CF and IL directions as the reduced velocity increases.For the downstream riser,the amplitude response of rough riser is more significantly weakened compared with the smooth one at high reduced velocity.For the upstream risers,changes in the roughness and spacing ratio have an impact on their‘lock-in’region.When the roughness of downstream risers is relatively large(0.1300)and the spacing between risers is small(S/D=4.0),the reduced velocity range of‘lock-in’region in the CF direction of upstream risers is obviously expanded,and the displacement in the‘lock-in’region is severer.

Experimental Study on Vortex-Induced Vibration of Rough Risers with Coupling Interference Effect Under Side-by-Side Arrangement

A vortex-induced vibration(VIV)experiment of rough risers with coupling interference effect under a side-by-side arrangement was carried out in a wave-current combined flume.The roughness of the riser was characterized by arranging different specifications of surface attachments on the surface of the riser.Rough risers with three different roughnesses were arranged side by side with smooth risers to explore the VIV response of the riser under the combined action of roughness and interference effect,and to reveal the coupling mechanism between roughness and interference effect.The experimental results show that,compared with that of a smooth riser,the VIV of a rough riser under the coupling interference effect has a wider"lock-in"region,and the displacement decreases more significantly at a high reduced velocity,which is more likely to excite higher-order modes and frequency responses.In addition,the displacement response and frequency response of the smooth riser are not significantly affected by wake interference from the rough riser,which is caused by the decrease of the wake region due to the delay of the boundary layer separation point of the rough riser.

Experimental Study on the Sinking and Leveling of A Large-Capacity Offshore Wind Turbine Five-Bucket Foundation in Sand

As offshore wind farms expand into deeper and farther ocean regions and the unit capacity of offshore wind turbines(OWTs)increases,there is a pressing need for a new foundation structure that can accommodate deep-sea conditions and support large capacities while maintaining economical and safe.To meet this goal of integrated transportation and one-step installation,a novel five-bucket jacket foundation(FBJF),with its suction installation and leveling methods in sand,has been proposed,analyzed and experimentally studied.First,seepage failure experiments of the FBJF at various depths were conducted,and a formula for calculating the critical suction of seepage failure suitable for the FBJF in sand was chosen and recommended for use with a range of values for the permeability coefficient ratio.Second,through leveling experiments of the FBJF at different depths,the maximum adjustable leveling angle during the sinking process was defined using seepage failure and the adjustable leveling angle of the foundation as control criteria.Various leveling control strategies were proposed and verified.Finally,an automatic sinking and leveling control system for the FBJF was developed and experimentally verified for feasibility.

Numerical Study of Flow Features Around Submerged Circular and Square Piles at Flat and Scoured Beds Using OpenFOAM

Elucidating the flow features around piles in local scouring processes is crucial for studies of local scouring mechanisms and scour depth estimates.This study details the flow turbulence characteristics of two submerged piles that are determined by solving the Navier-Stokes equations with the improved delayed detached eddy simulation model.This model is verified by comparing experimental and numerical results for hydrodynamic parameters with the literature for both square-crossing piles(SCPs)and circular-crossing piles(CCPs).Original topographies of flat and scoured beds(i.e.,the initial and equilibrium scouring stages)are based on experimental results obtained by the authors in the present paper.SCP and CCP flow features in the scouring process are discussed.The results indicate that during the scouring process,the time-averaged drag coefficient and root mean square(rms)of the lift coefficient increase linearly in the CCP test,while the rms of the lift coefficient in the SCP test decreases linearly.Moreover,the minimum pressure coefficient is always located in the upstream corners in the SCP case but moves from 72.5°to 79.5°when the scour hole is completely developed in the CCP case.Downward flow behind the pile,which is generated by separated boundary layers above the top face of the pile,can reach the sand bed and turn the separated shear layers into patches of small vortices in the near-wake regions.Thus,the high shear stress zones are mainly at the scour edges under scoured-bed conditions.

Uncertainty analysis for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters in the South China Sea

The calculation results of marine environmental design parameters obtained from different data sampling methods,model distributions,and parameter estimation methods often vary greatly.To better analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters,a general model uncertainty assessment method is necessary.We proposed a new multivariate model uncertainty assessment method for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters.The method divides the overall model uncertainty into two categories:aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty.The aleatory uncertainty of the model is obtained by analyzing the influence of the number and the dispersion degree of samples on the information entropy of the model.The epistemic uncertainty of the model is calculated using the information entropy of the model itself and the prediction error.The advantages of this method are that it does not require many-year-observation data for the marine environmental elements,and the method can be used to analyze any specific factors that cause model uncertainty.Results show that by applying the method to the South China Sea,the aleatory uncertainty of the model increases with the number of samples and then stabilizes.A positive correlation was revealed between the dispersion of the samples and the aleatory uncertainty of the model.Both the distribution of the model and the parameter estimation results of the model have significant effects on the epistemic uncertainty of the model.When the goodness-of-fit of the model is relatively close,the best model can be selected according to the criterion of the lowest overall uncertainty of the models,which can both ensure a better model fit and avoid too much uncertainty in the model calculation results.The presented multivariate model uncertainty assessment method provides a criterion to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the marine environmental design parameter calculation model from the aspect of uncertainty,which is of great significance to analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters and improve the accuracy of the calculation results.

Application of Linear Mean-Square Estimation in Ocean Engineering

The attempt to obtain long-term observed data around some sea areas we concern is usually very hard or even impossible in practical offshore and ocean engineering situations. In this paper, by means of linear mean-square estimation method, a new way to extend short-term data to long-term ones is developed. The long-term data about concerning sea areas can be constructed via a series of long-term data obtained from neighbor oceanographic stations, through relevance analysis of different data series. It is effective to cover the insufficiency of time series prediction method＇s overdependence upon the length of data series, as well as the limitation of variable numbers adopted in multiple linear regression model. The storm surge data collected from three oceanographic stations located in Shandong Peninsula are taken as examples to analyze the number-selection effect of reference oceanographic stations（adjacent to the concerning sea area） and the correlation coefficients between sea sites which are selected for reference and for engineering projects construction respectively. By comparing the N-year return-period values which are calculated from observed raw data and processed data which are extended from finite data series by means of the linear mean-square estimation method, one can draw a conclusion that this method can give considerably good estimation in practical ocean engineering, in spite of different extreme value distributions about raw and processed data.

Wind Wave Characteristics and Engineering Environment of the South China Sea

Wave simulation was conducted for the period 1976 to 2005 in the South China Sea （SCS） using the wave model, WAVEWATCH-III. Wave characteristics and engineering environment were studied in the region. The wind input data are from the objective reanalysis wind datasets, which assimilate meteorological data from several sources. Comparisons of significant wave heights between simulation and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter and buoy data show a good agreement in general. By statistical analysis, the wave characteristics, such as significant wave heights, dominant wave directions, and their seasonal variations, were discussed. The largest significant wave heights are found in winter and the smallest in spring. The annual mean dominant wave direction is northeast （NE） along the southwest （SW）-NE axis, east northeast in the northwest （NW） part of SCS, and north northeast in the southeast （SE） part of SCS. The joint distributions of wave heights and wave periods （directions） were studied. The results show a single peak pattern for joint significant wave heights and periods, and a double peak pattern for joint significant wave heights and mean directions. Furthermore, the main wave extreme parameters and directional extreme values, particularly for the 100-year return period, were also investigated. The main extreme values of significant wave heights are larger in the northern part of SCS than in the south- ern part, with the maximum value occurring to the southeast of Hainan Island. The direction of large directional extreme Hs values is focus in E in the northem and middle sea areas of SCS, while the direction of those is focus in N in the southeast sea areas of SCS.

Deep-sea rock mechanics and mining technology:State of the art and perspectives

The review covers the development and the state of the art in deep-sea mining rock mechanics,equipment and challenges.It begins by introducing the significance of deep-sea mining,the types and geographical distribution of deep-sea resources.Section 2 reviews the mechanical properties and fracture mechanism of seabed and related continental rocks,which contributes to the advancement of relevant technologies and theories.Deep-sea mining systems developed by coastal countries are presented in Section 3.Seabed mineral collection systems are critically assessed in Section 4.Subsea mining vehicle is reviewed by walking mechanism and controlling system in Section 5.In Section 6,the development of subsea lifting system is detailed by dividing it into hydraulic and pneumatic lifting modes,and some technical problems in the lifting system are described.An in-depth description of surface support systems is presented in Section 7,which includes the deep-sea mining ship,dynamic positioning system,heave compensation system,launch and retrieval system,mineral disposing system as well as the storage and transferring systems.Section 8 discusses the challenges in the deep-sea mining,in terms of natural occurrence conditions,international legal framework and cooperative mining,environmental protection and economic benefits,etc.Finally,a brief summary and some aspects of prospective research are presented in Section 9.

Deformation and Stress Analysis of the Deepwater Steel Lazy Wave Riser Subjected to Internal Solitary Waves

The dynamic response of the steel lazy wave riser(SLWR)subjected to the internal solitary wave is a key to assessing its application feasibility.The innovation of this paper is to study the dynamic response properties of the SLWR with large deformation characteristics under internal wave excitation.A numerical scheme of the SLWR is constructed using the slender-rod theory,and the internal solitary wave(ISW)with a two-layer seawater model is simulated by the extended Korteweg-deVries equation.The finite element method combined with the Newmark-βmethod is applied to discretize the equations and update the time integration.The ISW excitation combined with vessel motion on the dynamic deformation and stress of the SLWR is investigated,and extensive simulations of the ISW parameters,including the interface depth ratio and density difference,are carried out.Case calculation reveals that the displacement of the riser in the lower interface layer increases significantly under the ISW excitation,and the stresses at a part of both ends grow evidently.Moreover,the mean value of riser responses under a combination of vessel motion and ISW coincides with the ISW-induced ones.Furthermore,the dynamic responses along the whole riser,including the displacement amplitudes,bending moment amplitudes,and stress amplitudes,almost increase with the increase in interface depth ratios and density differences.

Probability Density Analysis of Nonlinear Random Ship Rolling

Ship rolling in random waves is a complicated nonlinear motion that contributes substantially to ship instability and capsizing.The finite element method(FEM)is employed in this paper to solve the Fokker Planck(FP)equations numerically for homoclinic and heteroclinic ship rolling under random waves described as periodic and Gaussian white noise excitations.The transient joint probability density functions(PDFs)and marginal PDFs of the rolling responses are also obtained.The effects of stimulation strength on ship rolling are further investigated from a probabilistic standpoint.The homoclinic ship rolling has two rolling states,the connection between the two peaks of the PDF is observed when the periodic excitation amplitude or the noise intensity is large,and the PDF is remarkably distributed in phase space.These phenomena increase the possibility of a random jump in ship motion states and the uncertainty of ship rolling,and the ship may lose stability due to unforeseeable facts or conditions.Meanwhile,only one rolling state is observed when the ship is in heteroclinic rolling.As the periodic excitation amplitude grows,the PDF concentration increases and drifts away from the beginning location,suggesting that the ship rolling substantially changes in a cycle and its stability is low.The PDF becomes increasingly uniform and covers a large region as the noise intensity increases,reducing the certainty of ship rolling and navigation safety.The current numerical solutions and analyses may be applied to evaluate the stability of a rolling ship in irregular waves and capsize mechanisms.

Wave Force on the Crown Wall of Rubble Mound Breakwaters at Intermediate Depths

Rubble mound breakwaters with a crown wall are a common coastal engineering structure.The wave force on crown walls is an important parameter for the practice engineering design.Particularly,the wave force on crown walls under intermediate depths has been studied through physical model tests and numerical simulations.In this study,a three-dimensional numerical wave flume was developed to investigate monochromatic wave interactions in a rubble mound breakwater with a crown wall.Armor blocks were modeled in detail.The Navier-Stokes equations for two-phase incompressible flows,combined with shear stress transport k-ωturbulence model and volume of fluid method for tracking the free surface,were solved.A set of laboratory experiments were performed to validate the adopted model.Subsequently,a series of numerical simulations were implemented to examine the impacts of different hydrodynamic parameters(including wave height,incident wave period,and water depth)and the berm width on the wave force of the crown wall.Finally,a comparison of the experimental results and Martin method shows that the latter method is not suitable for this experimental scope.New empirical formulas are proposed to predict the wave force on crown walls under intermediate depth.The results can provide a basis for the design of crown wall of rubble mound breakwaters at intermediate depths.

Intensity Estimation of Extreme Meteorological and Hydrological Factors Induced by Tropical Cyclones Affecting Hong Kong

Hong Kong is often affected by tropical cyclones.The Hong Kong observatory issues warning signals based on the impact of tropical cyclones on the region.The joint frequency analysis of tropical cyclones in Hong Kong can provide a scientific basis for disaster reduction and prevention and post-disaster reconstruction of tropical cyclones.First,the maximum hourly mean wind speed(W),warning signal duration(D),maximum sea level(L),and total rainfall(R)of each tropical cyclone that affected Hong Kong from 1985 to 2019 are selected and fitted using the Gumbel,Weibull,Pearson type 3,and lognormal distributions.Then,bivariate copula functions,such as the Clayton,Frank,Gumbel-Hougaard,and Gaussian copulas,are applied to construct the joint probability models of W,D,L,and R,respectively.The joint return periods of W and D and those of L and R are defined as the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones,respectively.The results show that the joint return periods are good indicators of the comprehensive effect of the meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones.No necessary correlation between meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones exists.The meteorological and hydrological intensities of tropical cyclones show an upward trend in recent years.

Hazard risk assessment of tropical cyclones based on joint probability theory

The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing factors.According to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong.The results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded.

Synergistic effects of multiple driving factors on the runoff variations in the Yellow River Basin,China

River runoff plays an important role in watershed ecosystems and human survival,and it is controlled by multiple environmental factors.However,the synergistic effects of various large-scale circulation factors and meteorological factors on the runoff on different time-frequency scales have rarely been explored.In light of this,the underlying mechanism of the synergistic effects of the different environmental factors on the runoff variations was investigated in the Yellow River Basin of China during the period 1950-2019 using the bivariate wavelet coherence(WTC)and multiple wavelet coherence(MWC)methods.First,the continuous wavelet transform(CWT)method was used to analyze the multiscale characteristics of the runoff.The results of the CWT indicate that the runoff exhibited significant continuous or discontinuous annual and semiannual oscillations during the study period.Scattered inter-annual time scales were also observed for the runoff in the Yellow River Basin.The meteorological factors better explained the runoff variations on seasonal and annual time scales.The average wavelet coherence(AWC)and the percent area of the significant coherence(PASC)between the runoff and individual meteorological factors were 0.454 and 19.89%,respectively.The circulation factors mainly regulated the runoff on the inter-annual and decadal time scales with more complicated phase relationships due to their indirect effects on the runoff.The AWC and PASC between the runoff and individual circulation factors were 0.359 and 7.31%,respectively.The MWC analysis revealed that the synergistic effects of multiple factors should be taken into consideration to explain the multiscale characteristic variations of the runoff.The AWC or MWC ranges were 0.320-0.560,0.617-0.755,and 0.819-0.884 for the combinations of one,two,and three circulation and meteorological factors,respectively.The PASC ranges were 3.53%-33.77%,12.93%-36.90%,and 20.67%-39.34%for the combinations one,two,and three driving factors,respectively.The combinations of precipitation,evapotranspiration(or the number of rainy days),and the Arctic Oscillation performed well in explaining the variability in the runoff on all time scales,and the average MWC and PASC were 0.847 and 28.79%,respectively.These findings are of great significance for improving our understanding of hydro-climate interactions and water resources prediction in the Yellow River Basin.

Joint Return Value Estimation of Significant Wave Heights and Wind Speeds with Bivariate Copulas

The joint design criteria of significant wave heights and wind speeds are quite important for the structural reliability of fixed offshore platforms.However,the design method that regards different ocean environmental variables as independent is conservative.In the present study,we introduce a bivariate sample consisting of the maximum wave heights and concomitant wind speeds of the threshold by using the peak-over-threshold and declustering methods.After selecting the appropriate bivariate copulas and univariate distributions and blocking the sample into years,the bivariate compound distribution of annual extreme wave heights and concomitant wind speeds is constructed.Two joint design criteria,namely,the joint probability density method and the conditional probability method,are applied to obtain the joint return values of significant wave heights and wind speeds.Results show that(28.5±0.5)m s^(-1)is the frequently obtained wind speed based on the Atlantic dataset,and these joint design values are more appropriate than those calculated by univariate analysis in the fatigue design.

Cooperative Sampling Path Planning of Underwater Glider Fleet with Simultaneous Launch and Recovery

As low-cost and highly autonomous ocean observation platforms,underwater gliders encounter risks during their launch and recovery,especially when coordinating multi-glider deployments.This work focuses on cooperative path planning of an underwater glider fleet with simultaneous launch and recovery to enhance the autonomy of sampling and reduce deployment risks.Specifically,the gliders collaborate to achieve sampling considering the specified routines of interest.The overall paths to be planned are divided into four rectangular parts with the same starting point,and each glider is assigned a local sampling route.A clipped-oriented line-of-sight algorithm is proposed to ensure the coverage of the desired edges.The pitch angle of the glider is selected as the optimizing parameter to coordinate the overall progress considering the susceptibility of gliders to currents and the randomness of paths produced by complex navigational strategies.Therefore,a multi-actuation deep-Q network algorithm is proposed to ensure simultaneous launch and recovery.Simulation results demonstrate the acceptable effectiveness of the proposed method.