An analysis of China's CO_2 emission peaking target and pathways

China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China＇s resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China＇s potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China＇s total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China＇s total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.

Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030: Synergies or trade-offs between economy, energy and climate security

China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025--2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually -0.2% in average and cumulatively -3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015-2030.

China's INDC and non-fossil energy development

Global climate change promotes the energy system reform. Achieving a high proportion of renewable energy becomes the major countries＇ energy strategy. As proposed in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions （INDC）, China intends to raise the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption to about 20% by 2030. That ambitious goal means the non-fossil energy supplies by 2030 will be 7-8 times that of 2005, and the annual increase rate is more than 8% within the 25 years. Besides, the capacity of wind power, solar power, hy- dropower and nuclear power reaches 400 GW, 350 GW, 450 GW, and 150 GW respectively, and China＇s non-fossil power capacity is even greater than the U.S.＇s total power capacity. In addition, the scale of natural gas increases. Consequently, by 2030, the proportion of coal falls from the current 70% to below 50%, and the CO2 intensity of energy consumption decreases by 20% compared with the level of 2005, which play important roles in significantly reducing the CO2 intensity of GDE Since China has confirmed to achieve the CO2 emissions peak around 2030, at that time, the newly added energy demand will be satisfied by non-fossil energy, and the consumption of fossil fuel will stop growing. By 2030, non-fossil energy accounts for 20%, and the large scale and sound momentum of new and renewable energy industry will support the growth of total energy demand, which plays a key role in CO2 emissions peaking and beginning to decline, and lays the foundation for establishing a new energy system dominated by new and renewable energy in the second half of the 21 st century as well as finally achieving the CO2 zero-emission.

Carbon Productivity Analysis to Address Global Climate Change

Developing low-carbon economy and enhancing carbon productivity are basic approaches to coordinating economic development and protecting global environment, which are also the major ways to address climate change under the framework of sustainable development. In this paper, the authors analyze the annual rate of carbon productivity growth, the differences of carbon productivity of different countries, and the factors for enhancing carbon productivity. Consequently, the authors clarify their viewpoint that the annual rate of carbon productivity growth can be used to weigh the efforts that a country takes to address climate change, and propose policies and suggestions on promoting carbon production.

Objectives and strategies for energy revolution in the context of tackling climate change

Global climate change mitigation and CO2 emission reduction have promoted the revolutionary transformation in energy system.The core content of energy system revolutionary transformation is to replace the high-carbon energy system dominated by fossil energy with low-carbon energy system dominated by new and renewable energy and finally realize the near-zero emission of CO2.The new energy system transformation has also led to a reform in global economic and social development patterns.Developing low-carbon economy becomes the fundamental strategy of sustainable development under climate risk management and the only solution to getting on the road from industrial civilization to ecological civilization.China intends to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030.Guided by the targets,China directs its economy development to a low-carbon pattern.Therefore,new and renewable power capacity need to reach 1300 GW,and the electricity generated should be 4 times of that in 2013 with a continuous increase rate of 6%e8% around 2030.The pace of energy substitution need to be accelerated and efficient,safe,clean,and low-carbon energy supply and consumption systems should be established besides strengthened energy conservation and improved energy efficient.Therefore,reform need be deepened,favorable policy system and market mechanism for energy revolution and low-carbon development need be established,energy pricing mechanism should be reformed,and national carbon market should be formed to provide a favorable policy and market environment for low-carbon technology innovation and industry development.

The gap report of global climate change mitigation, finance, and governance after the United States declared its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

On 1 June 2017, the US President Donald Trump officially announced the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, thus the study on the reasons of withdrawal, the potential impacts, and coping strategies has become a focus among policy circles and of the international community. Based on the self-developed US Policy Assessment Model, this paper systematically evaluates the three potential ＂major deficits＂ in terms of mitigation, climate finance, and global climate governance, as a result of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and puts forward policy suggestions for coping with such transformations accordingly. The study shows that the United States ＇withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will affect the existence and implementation of successive climate policies and result in an additional 8.8-13.4% increase in the global emissions reduction deficit. The United States＇ withdrawal will also deteriorate the existing climate finance mechanism. The Green Climate Fund （GCF）＇s funding gap will increase by USS2 billion, while the gap of long-term climate finance will increase by about USS5 billion a year. Either the China-EU or the ＂BASIC plus＂ mechanism could fill the governance deficit caused by the United States and the lack of political momentum may continue for a while in the future.

Global low-carbon transition and China's response strategies

The Paris Agreement establishes a new mechanism for post-2020 global climate governance, and sets long-term goals for global response to climate change, which will accelerate worldwide low-carbon transformation of economic development pattern, promote the revolutionary reform of energy system, boost a fundamental change in the mode of social production and consumption, and further the civilization of human society from industrial civilization to eco-civilization. The urgency of global low-carbon transition will reshape the competition situation of world's economy, trade and technology. Taking the construction of eco-civilization as a guide, China explores green and low-carbon development paths,establishes ambitious intended nationally determined contribution(INDC) targets and action plans, advances energy production and consumption revolution, and speeds up the transformation of economic development pattern. These strategies and actions not only confirm to the trend of the world low-carbon transition, but also meet the intrinsic requirements for easing the domestic resources and environment constraints and realizing sustainable development. They are multi-win-win strategies for promotion of economic development and environmental protection and mitigation of carbon emissions. China should take the global long-term emission reduction targets as a guide, and formulate medium and long-term low-carbon development strategy, build the core competitiveness of low-carbon advanced technology and development pattern, and take an in-depth part in global governance so as to reflect the responsibility of China as a great power in constructing a community of common destiny for all mankind and addressing global ecological crisis.

Analysis of CO_2 emissions peak:China's objective and strategy

Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO_2 reduction and emission peak,and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO_2 emissions reduction.They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment,and internal needs,to achieve sustainable development.Generally speaking,a country's CO_2 emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization.By then,connotative economic growth will appear,GDP will grow slowly,energy consumption elasticity will decrease,and energy consumption growth will slow down-dependent mainly on new and renewable energies.Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further.When CO_2 emission reaches its peak,the annual reduction rate of CO_2 intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate;and the annual reduction rate of CO_2 intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption.Therefore,three important approaches to promotion of CO_2 emission peak can be concluded:maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth,strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity,and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO_2 intensity of energy use.By around 2030,China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization.Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3%or higher.The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20-25%,and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6-8%.The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5%will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels.The annual decline in CO_2 intensity of GDP will reach 4.5%or higher,which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5%in order to reach CO_2 emission peak.This corresponds to the level of China's potential economic growth.Achieving CO_2 emission peak will not impose a rigid constraint on economic development,but rather promote economic development and accelerate the transformation of green,low-carbon development.The CO_2 emission peak can be controlled with a cap of 11 billion tons,which means that CO_2 emission will increase by less than 50%compared with 2010.The per capita emission peak will be controlled at a level of less than 8 tons,which is lower than the 9.5 tons in the EU and Japan and much lower than the 20 tons in the US,future economic and social development faces many uncertainties in achieving the CO_2 emission peak discussed above.It depends on current and future strategies and policies,as well as the pace and strength of economic transformation,innovation,and new energy technologies.If the economic transformation pattern fails to meet expectations,the time required to reach CO_2emission peak would be delayed and the peak level would be higher than expected.Therefore,we need to coordinate thoughts and ideas and deploy these in advance;to highlight the strategic position of low-carbon development and its priorities;to enact mid-to long-term energy development strategies;and to establish and improve a system of laws,regulations,and policies as well as an implementation mechanism for green,low-carbon development Oriented by positive and urgent CO_2 reduction and peak targets,the government would form a reversed mechanism to promote economic transformation and embark on the path of green,low-carbon development as soon as possible.

The win-win pathway of economic growth and CO_2 emission reduction:a case study for China

Continuously reducing the CO_2 intensity of GDP is the core strategy for developing countries to realize the dual targets of economic growth and CO_2 emissions reduction. The measures are twofold: one is to strengthen energy saving and decrease energy intensity of GDP and the other is to promote energy structural decarbonization and reduce CO_2 intensity of energy consumption. In order to control global temperature rise no more than 2℃, the decrease in CO_2 intensity of GDP needs surpass 4% before 2030, but it could be merely about 2% based on the current trend. Therefore, all countries ought to speed up the low-carbon transition in energy and economy. As for China, keeping a continuous decline in CO_2 intensity of GDP of 4%-5% will ensure the realization of the NDC objectives, and also promotes the early peaking of CO_2 emissions before 2030. China will play a positive leading role in realizing a win-win low-carbon development coordinating sustainable development and climate change mitigation.

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative R&D and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational R&D cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.

Heavy Industry Share Increase Is Causing Higher Energy Consumptioni

The"11th Five-Year"plan sets the objective of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20% in five years.Readjusting industrial structure is one of the possible means to reach this goal.As for energy consumption reduction through industrial readjustment,however,present research only explores the effects of industry structural change in the six sectors such as agriculture,industry,construction,transportation and commerce,yet without considering the ramifications of sub-sector two-digit code industry structure.In this paper,we have calculated the effects of structural change in light- heavy industries on energy consumption and energy intensity from 1993 to 2005 using the factor decomposition method.As a result,we found for each percentage point gain in favour of heavy industry in the light-heavy industry mix,China’s energy consumption increases by nearly 9 million metric tons of coal equivalent.However the overall effects of structural change in light-heavy industry are less than those of sub-sector intensity factors on industrial energy intensity and energy consumption per unit of GDP.The heavy industry share gain has over recent years exerted a significant impact on industrial energy intensity.For example,78% of the abnormal increase in industrial energy intensity in 2003 could be attributed to this factor.Finally,an analytical framework for energy intensity based on this study is presented.

China's target for peaking CO_2 emissions

All parties are committed to reaching an agreement on post-2020 global climate arrangement at the United Nations Climate Conference in Paris at the end of this year. Countries put forward their Intended Nationally Determined Contribu- tions （INDCs） one after another. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report （AR5） released last year confirmed the scientific conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gas （GHG） emis- sions are the main causes of global warming, and proposed mitigation pathways to limit the temperature increase within 2 ℃. However, according to current trend of emissions, the global mean temperature will increase 3.7--4.8 ℃, which could bring disastrous risks to both the earth＇s ecology and human society. Therefore, all countries in the world should strengthen efforts to mitigate GHG emissions.

Definition of Business as Usual and Its Impacts on Assessment of Mitigation Efforts

Business as Usual （BaU） scenario in developing countries has been a debated issue in climate change negotiations. This paper analyzes different definitions of BaU and points out that the major difference among these definitions is how to set the starting point of BaU projections, that is the so called base year. Some international institutions use current policy scenarios to project a BaU trajectory of developing countries. Such definition will lead to an underestimation of BaU emissions of developing countries and thus an underestimation of mitigation efforts. This paper concludes with a suggestion to use a without policy scenario with a clear base year as definition of BaU. Such a definition will set an objective benchmark to assess mitigation efforts of develonin countries.

China＇s Climate Policy and Carbon Market Outlook in the Post-Paris Era

The Paris Agreement adopted by all parties at Paris Climate Conference(COP21)marks the beginning of new global cooperation efforts to address climate change.But as Chinese President Xi Jinping said,"The Paris Agreement is not an end,but a new starting point.’’In the 23 years since the United Nations Environment and Development Conference in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil,in 1992,both

Organizational Behavior Research in Transition Time of China

The article is to introduce author's research results in recent years in the field of leadership behavior. The main researches conducted in this field include competency model of senior executives in communication industry and family firms; transformational leadership and its relationship with leadership effectiveness, the impact of supervisor's feedback on employees' behavior and the cross-culture study of supervisor's feedback. Theoretical and practical contributions of these researches are explained. Directions for future research are discussed.

Modeling the implementation of NDCs and the scenarios below 2°C for the Belt and Road countries

In order to understand better on medium-and long-term climate change issues in international cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),this paper is meant to assess the implementation of National Determined Contributions(NDCs)of the BRI countries and the emission constraints under the Paris Agreement to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels,based on the Belt and Road Integrated Assessment Model(BRIAM)and the best available data.The results show that the BRI countries are expected to collectively reduce about 3.2 billion tons of CO_(2)emissions with the implementation of their NDCs by 2030.In order to achieve the global goal of 2℃,without appropriate mitigation burden sharing and enhanced climate finance support,the BRI countries will face big challenges to bridge the emission gaps.The investment in clean energy and related new infrastructures in BRI will rise sharply to above US$100 trillion by the end of this century accordingly with the increase in carbon price,which will also eventually have a significant impact on the price of electricity and oversea freight transport in a connecting world.

Impact of ERP Investment on Company Performance: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in China

Information Technology （IT） investments, especially Enterprise Resource Planning （ERP） systems, are critical for the survival and development of companies. Therefore, understanding the impact of ERP in- vestment is of great importance to managers and researchers. As a corporate performance indicator, Tobin＇s Q has some inherent advantages compared to other accounting indicators, and it can better reflect the con- tribution of ERP investment to company performance. This study employs multiple regression models to examine the impact of ERP investment on Tobin＇s Q. The sample consists of 126 manufacturing companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 1999 to 2007. Empirical results show that in the first three years after ERP implementation, there is no significant change in Tobin＇s Q; however, in the fourth year, Tobin＇s Q increases significantly. The results indicate that, as a strategic long-term investment accompanied by large-scale business process reengineering and organizational learning, ERP implementa- tion has time-lagged effects; nonetheless, it eventually produces significant benefits.

Assimilation and Contrast:The Two-sided Anchoring Effects of Recommender Systems

Previous studies on the behavioral implications of recommender systems suggest that consumer preferences after consumption are malleable and tend to shift towards the ratings presented by a recommender system because of the anchoring effects.Drawing upon the literature on consumer satisfaction,we show that such a view on the anchoring effects of recommender systems is incomplete.Apart from the assimilation effects that pull the consumers’preferences towards the anchor,the contrast effects may shift their preferences in the other direction.Therefore,we theoretically hypothesize that the impacts of recommendations on consumers’constructed preferences are dependent on the level of deviation of the presented rating.The hypotheses are validated through a laboratory experiment.Our findings extend the existing literature on behavioral implications of recommender systems and provide a more comprehensive theoretical lens for understanding the anchoring effects,which may offer helpful insights for improving the design and use of recommender systems.

Reaping the Economic Benefits of Decarbonization for China

Chinaneeds to reduce its carbon emissions if global climate change mitigation is to succeed. Conventional economic analysis views cutting emissions as a cost, creating a collective action problem. However, decarbonization can improve productivity andprovide co-benefits that accord with multiple national policy objectives. We track China ＇ s progress in reducing the emissions intensity of the economy, and construct a macro scenario with China＇s carbon emissions peaking in the 2020s. Investment in greater energy productivity and economic restructuring away from heavy industries can bring productivity gains, and decarbonization of energy supply has important co-benefits for airpollution and energy security. Combined with lower climate change risks and the likelihood thai China＇s actions will influence other countries, this suggests that cutting carbon emissions is not only in China＇s self-interest but also in the global interest. To properly identify the true costs and benefits of climate change action requires new thinking in economic analysis.

A novel business analytics approach and case study-fuzzy associative classifier based on information gain and rule-covering

Associative classification has attracted remarkable research attention for business analytics in recent years due to its merits in accuracy and understandability.It is deemed meaningful to construct an associative classifier with a compact set of rules(i.e.,compactness),which is easy to understand and use in decision making.This paper presents a novel approach to fuzzy associative classification(namely Gain-based Fuzzy Rule-Covering classification,GFRC),which is a fuzzy extension of an effective classifier GARC.In GFRC,two desirable strategies are introduced to enhance the compactness with accuracy.One strategy is fuzzy partitioning for data discretization to cope with the‘sharp boundary problem’,in that simulated annealing is incorporated based on the information entropy measure;the other strategy is a data-redundancy resolution coupled with the rulecovering treatment.Data experiments show that GFRC had good accuracy,and was significantly advantageous over other classifiers in compactness.Moreover,GFRC is applied to a real-world case for predicting the growth of sellers in an electronic marketplace,illustrating the classification effectiveness with linguistic rules in business decision support.