Separation of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Governing Regional Variability of Arctic Sea Ice in Summer

In recent decades,Arctic summer sea ice extent(SIE)has shown a rapid decline overlaid with large interannual variations,both of which are influenced by geopotential height anomalies over Greenland(GL-high)and the central Arctic(CA-high).In this study,SIE along coastal Siberia(Sib-SIE)and Alaska(Ala-SIE)is found to account for about 65%and 21%of the Arctic SIE interannual variability,respectively.Variability in Ala-SIE is related to the GL-high,whereas variability in Sib-SIE is related to the CA-high.A decreased Ala-SIE is associated with decreased cloud cover and increased easterly winds along the Alaskan coast,promoting ice-albedo feedback.A decreased Sib-SIE is associated with a significant increase in water vapor and downward longwave radiation(DLR)along the Siberian coast.The years 2012 and 2020 with minimum recorded ASIE are used as examples.Compared to climatology,summer 2012 is characterized by a significantly enhanced GL-high with major sea ice loss along the Alaskan coast,while summer 2020 is characterized by an enhanced CA-high with sea ice loss focused along the Siberian coast.In 2012,the lack of cloud cover along the Alaskan coast contributed to an increase in incoming solar radiation,amplifying ice-albedo feedback there;while in 2020,the opposite occurs with an increase in cloud cover along the Alaskan coast,resulting in a slight increase in sea ice there.Along the Siberian coast,increased DLR in 2020 plays a dominant role in sea ice loss,and increased cloud cover and water vapor both contribute to the increased DLR.

Preface to the Special Issue on Causes, Impacts, and Predictability of Droughts for the Past, Present, and Future

Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years.

Establishment of the South Asian High over the Indo-China Peninsula During Late Spring to Summer

The establishment of the upper-level South Asian high （SAH） over the Indo-China Peninsula （ICP） during late boreal spring and its possible causes are investigated using long-term NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis and satellite-observed OLR data. Results show that, from early March to mid-April, deep convection stays south of -6°N over the northern Sumatran islands. As the maximum solar radiation moves over the latitudes of the ICP （10-20°N） in late April, the air over the ICP becomes unstable. It ascends over the ICP and descends over the adjacent waters to the east and west. This triggers deep convection over the ICP that induces large latent heating and strong updrafts and upper-level divergence, leading to the formation of an upper-level anticyclonic circulation and the SAH over the ICE During early to mid-May, deep convection over the ICP intensifies and extends northwards to the adjacent waters. Strong latent heating from deep convection enhances and maintains the strong updrafts and upper-level divergence, and the SAH is fully established by mid-May. Thus, the seasonal maximum solar heating and the land-sea contrast around the ICP provide the basic conditions for deep convection to occur preferentially over the ICP, which leads to the formation of the SAH over the ICP from late April to mid-May. Simulations using RegCM4 also indicate that the diabatic heating over the ICP is conducive to the generation and development of upper-level anticyclonic circulation, which leads to an earlier establishment of the SAH.

The Predictability of Ocean Environments that Contributed to the 2020/21 Extreme Cold Events in China:2020/21 La Niña and 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Niña after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Niña prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Niña development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.

Dominant patterns of winter Arctic surface wind variability

Dominant statistical patterns of winter Arctic surface wind （WASW） variability and their impacts on Arctic sea ice motion are investigated using the complex vector empirical orthogonal function （CVEOF） method. The results indicate that the leading CVEOF of Arctic surface wind variability, which accounts for 33% of the covariance, is characterized by two different and alternating spatial patterns （WASWP1 and WASWP2）. Both WASWP1 and WASWP2 show strong interannual and decadal variations, superposed on their declining trends over past decades. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with WASWPI and WASWP2 exhibit, respectively, equivalent barotropic and some baroclinic characteristics, differing from the Arctic dipole anomaly and the seesaw structure anomaly between the Barents Sea and the Beaufort Sea. On decadal time scales, the decline trend of WASWP2 can be attributed to persistent warming of sea surface temperature in the Greenland--Barents--Kara seas from autunm to winter, reflecting the effect of the Arctic warming. The second CVEOF, which accounts for 18% of the covariance, also contains two different spatial patterns （WASWP3 and WASWP4）. Their time evolutions are significantly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） index and the central Arctic Pattern, respectively, measured by the leading EOF of winter sea level pressure （SLP） north of 70~N. Thus, winter anomalous surface wind pattern associated with the NAO is not the most important surface wind pattern. WASWP3 and WASWP4 primarily reflect natural variability of winter surface wind and neither exhibits an apparent trend that differs from WASWP1 or WASWP2. These dominant surface wind patterns strongly influence Arctic sea ice motion and sea ice exchange between the western and eastern Arctic. Furthermore, the Fram Strait sea ice volume flux is only significantly correlated with WASWP3. The results demonstrate that surface and geostrophic winds are not interchangeable in terms of describing wind field variability over the Arctic Ocean. The results have important implications for understanding and investigating Arctic sea ice variations： Dominant patterns of Arctic surface wind variability, rather than simply whether there are the Arctic dipole anomaly and the Arctic Oscillation （or NAO）, effectively affect the spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice anomalies.

A Study on a Snowband Associated with a Coastal Front and Cold-Air Damming Event of 3-4 February 1998 along the Eastern Coast of the Korean Peninsula

A 24-h simulation with the Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） nonhydrostatic model is performed for the heavy snowfall event of 3-4 February 1998 along the eastern coast of Korean Peninsula; the results are used to understand the snowfall process, including why the precipitation maxima formed along the Yeongdong coastal region rather than over the mountain slope and ridge top during. The numerical simulation with a 4-kin horizontal grid spacing and 43 levels reproduces very well the narrow snowband located off the eastern Korean coast, away from, instead of over, the Yeongdong coastal mountain range. The general evolution of the snowband agrees quite well with radar observations, while the water-equivalent precipitation amount agrees reasonably well with radar precipitation estimate. The simulation results clearly show that the snow band developed due to the lifting by a coastal front that developed because of the damming of cold air against the eastern slope of the coastal mountain range. The damming was enhanced by the advection of cold air by a tow-level mountain-parallel jet from the north, formed due to geostrophic adjustment as the on-shore upslope air was decelerated by the mountain blocking. As the onshore flow weakened later due to synoptic-scale flow pattern change, the cold front propagated off shore and the precipitation dissipated.

A Sensitivity Study of Arctic Ice-Ocean Heat Exchange to the Three-Equation Boundary Condition Parametrization in CICE6

In this study,we perform a stand-alone sensitivity study using the Los Alamos Sea ice model version 6(CICE6)to investigate the model sensitivity to two Ice-Ocean(IO)boundary condition approaches.One is the two-equation approach that treats the freezing temperature as a function of the ocean mixed layer(ML)salinity,using two equations to parametrize the IO heat exchanges.Another approach uses the salinity of the IO interface to define the actual freezing temperature,so an equation describing the salt flux at the IO interface is added to the two-equation approach,forming the so-called three-equation approach.We focus on the impact of the three-equation boundary condition on the IO heat exchange and associated basal melt/growth of the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.Compared with the two-equation simulation,our three-equation simulation shows a reduced oceanic turbulent heat flux,weakened basal melt,increased ice thickness,and reduced sea surface temperature(SST)in the Arctic.These impacts occur mainly at the ice edge regions and manifest themselves in summer.Furthermore,in August,we observed a downward turbulent heat flux from the ice to the ocean ML in two of our three-equation sensitivity runs with a constant heat transfer coefficient(0.006),which caused heat divergence and congelation at the ice bottom.Additionally,the influence of different combinations of heat/salt transfer coefficients and thermal conductivity in the three-equation approach on the model simulated results is assessed.The results presented in this study can provide insight into sea ice model sensitivity to the three-equation IO boundary condition for coupling the CICE6 to climate models.

Assessment of Snow Depth over Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite Data

Snow depth over sea ice is an essential variable for understanding the Arctic energy budget.In this study,we evaluate snow depth over Arctic sea ice during 1993-2014 simulated by 31 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)against recent satellite retrievals.The CMIP6 models capture some aspects of the observed snow depth climatology and variability.The observed variability lies in the middle of the models’simulations.All the models show negative trends of snow depth during 1993-2014.However,substantial spatiotemporal discrepancies are identified.Compared to the observation,most models have late seasonal maximum snow depth(by two months),remarkably thinner snow for the seasonal minimum,an incorrect transition from the growth to decay period,and a greatly underestimated interannual variability and thinning trend of snow depth over areas with frequent occurrence of multi-year sea ice.Most models are unable to reproduce the observed snow depth gradient from the Canadian Arctic to the outer areas and the largest thinning rate in the central Arctic.Future projections suggest that snow depth in the Arctic will continue to decrease from 2015 to 2099.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the Arctic will be almost snow-free during the summer and fall and the accumulation of snow starts from January.Further investigation into the possible causes of the issues for the simulated snow depth by some models based on the same family of models suggests that resolution,the inclusion of a hightop atmospheric model,and biogeochemistry processes are important factors for snow depth simulation.

Uniqueness of Lekima compared to tropical cyclones landed in the east coast of China during 1979–2019

Tropical cyclone (TC) causes huge damage to lives and properties due to strong winds,storm surge,heavy rainfall and flooding(Peduzzi et al.,2012;Zhang et al.,2009).Climate model simulations suggested that the frequency of TCs might increase during the 21st century,especially over the western North Pacific (Emanuel,2013).Climate changes tend to double the economic damages caused by natural disaster,i.e.,strong TCs.East Asia hit by TCs may suffer great damages in the future (Mendelsohn et al.,2012).

Sensitivity of Snowfall Characteristics to Meteorological Conditions in the Yeongdong Region of Korea

This study investigates the characteristics of cold clouds and snowfall in both the Yeongdong coastal and mountainous regions under different meteorological conditions based on the integration of numerical modeling and three-hourly rawinsonde observations with snow crystal photographs for a snowfall event that occurred on 29−30 January 2016.We found that rimed particles predominantly observed turned into dendrite particles in the latter period of the episode when the 850 hPa temperature decreased at the coastal site,whereas the snow crystal habits at the mountainous site were largely needle or rimed needle.Rawinsonde soundings showed a well-defined,two-layered cloud structure along with distinctive wind-directional shear,and an inversion in the equivalent potential temperature above the low-level cloud layer.The first experiment with a decrease in lower-layer temperature showed that the low-level cloud thickness was reduced to less than 1.5 km,and the accumulated precipitation was decreased by 87%compared with the control experiment.The difference in precipitation amount between the single-layered experiment and control experiment(two-layered)was not so significant to attribute it to the effect of the seeder−feeder mechanism.The precipitation in the last experiment by weakening winddirectional shear was increased by 1.4 times greater than the control experiment specifically at the coastal site,with graupel particles accounting for the highest proportion(~62%).The current results would improve snowfall forecasts in complicated geographical environments such as Yeongdong in terms of snow crystal habit as well as snowfall amount in both time and space domains.

Subseasonal to seasonal Arctic sea-ice prediction:A grand challenge of climate science

On 15 September 2020,the Arctic sea-ice extent(SIE)reached its annual minimum,which,based on data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center(NSIDC,2020a),was about 3.74 million km^(2)(1.44 million square miles).This value was about 40%less than the climate average(~6.27 million km^(2))during 1980–2010.It was second only to the record low(3.34 million km^(2))set on 16 September 2012,but significantly smaller than the previous second-lowest(4.145 million km^(2),set on 7 September 2016)and third-lowest(4.147 million km^(2),set on 14 September 2007)values,making 2020 the second-lowest SIE year of the satellite era(42 years of data).

Impacts of external forcing and internal variability on the North Atlantic multidecadal variations since 1950

The physical formation mechanisms of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability(AMV)in the context of global warming have been a key research topic(Vecchi et al.,2017).The conventional view is that the AMV is mainly driven by internal dynamics within the climate system,especially in the Atlantic Ocean(Zhang et al.,2019).However,some studies suggest that decadal to multidecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)since around 1950 are related to anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions(Otter?et al.,2010;Booth et al.,2012;Hua et al.,2019).

适应极地快速变化海冰模式的研发与挑战

极地海冰是地球气候系统的重要组成部分,也是气候环境变化的指示器和放大器。极地海冰复杂的多尺度物理过程和极地观测资料的匮乏,给海冰模式的研发带来了巨大的挑战。在过去的半个多世纪中,大气-海冰-海洋的复杂相互作用和冰内物理过程在海冰模式中的数学描述取得了重大的进展,但海冰模式对一些重要物理过程的描述仍很不完善,尤其是近年来极地海冰的快速变化及其物理特性的变化,极大地增加了海冰模式物理参数化方案和模拟结果的不确定性。因此,迫切需要具备完善物理过程、适应海冰多尺度快速变化的高分辨率海冰模式,并应用于全球气候变化的研究和预测以及极地的开发利用。本文从海冰模式的发展历程和现状、极地海冰快速变化给海冰模式带来的挑战以及适应极地快速变化海冰模式的改进和发展研究方向三个方面进行了阐述和讨论。

Arctic Sea Ice Decline Intensified Haze Pollution in Eastern China

Air quality in eastern China has becoming more and more worrying in recent years, and haze is now No.1 air pollution issue. Results in this study show the decreasing Arctic sea ice(ASI) is an important contributor to the recent increased haze days in eastern China. The authors find that the number of winter haze days(WHD) in eastern China is strongly negatively correlated with the preceding autumn ASI during 1979–2012, and about 45%– 67% of the WHD interannual to interdecadal variability can be explained by ASI variability. Following previous studies on the impact of ASI loss on the northern hemisphere climate, the authors' studies further reveal that the reduction of autumn ASI leads to positive sea-level pressure anomalies in mid-latitude Eurasia, northward shift of track of cyclone activity in China, and weak Rossby wave activity in eastern China south of 40N during winter season. These atmospheric circulation changes favor less cyclone activity and more stable atmosphere in eastern China, leading to more haze days there. Furthermore, the patterns of circulation changes associated with autumn ASI and WHD are in very good agreement over the East Asia, particularly in eastern China. The authors suggest that haze pollution may continue to be a serious issue in the near future as the decline of ASI continues under global warming.

Stratospheric Ozone-induced Cloud Radiative Effects on Antarctic Sea Ice

Recent studies demonstrate that the Antarctic Ozone Hole has important influences on Antarctic sea ice.While most of these works have focused on effects associated with atmospheric and oceanic dynamic processes caused by stratospheric ozone changes,here we show that stratospheric ozone-induced cloud radiative effects also play important roles in causing changes in Antarctic sea ice.Our simulations demonstrate that the recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole causes decreases in clouds over Southern Hemisphere(SH)high latitudes and increases in clouds over the SH extratropics.The decrease in clouds leads to a reduction in downward infrared radiation,especially in austral autumn.This results in cooling of the Southern Ocean surface and increasing Antarctic sea ice.Surface cooling also involves ice-albedo feedback.Increasing sea ice reflects solar radiation and causes further cooling and more increases in Antarctic sea ice.

An Unprecedented Record Low Antarctic Sea-ice Extent during Austral Summer 2022

Seasonal minimum Antarctic sea ice extent(SIE)in 2022 hit a new record low since recordkeeping began in 1978 of 1.9 million km^(2) on 25 February,0.17 million km^(2) lower than the previous record low set in 2017.Significant negative anomalies in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas,the Weddell Sea,and the western Indian Ocean sector led to the new record minimum.The sea ice budget analysis presented here shows that thermodynamic processes dominate sea ice loss in summer through enhanced poleward heat transport and albedo-temperature feedback.In spring,both dynamic and thermodynamic processes contribute to negative sea ice anomalies.Specifically,dynamic ice loss dominates in the Amundsen Sea as evidenced by sea ice thickness(SIT)change,while positive surface heat fluxes contribute most to sea ice melt in the Weddell Sea.

Delving into the relationship between autumn Arctic sea ice and central–eastern Eurasian winter climate

Whether recent Arctic sea ice loss is responsible for recent severe winters over mid-latitude continents has emerged as a major debate among climate scientists owing to short records of observations and large internal variability in mid- and high-latitudes. In this study, the authors divide the evolution of autumn Arctic sea ice extent during 1979–2014 into three epochs, 1979–1986（high）, 1987–2006（moderate）, and 2007–2014（low）, using a regime shift identification method. The authors then compare the associations between autumn Arctic sea ice and winter climate anomalies over central and eastern Eurasia for the three epochs with a focus on extreme events. The results show robust and detectable signals of Arctic sea ice loss in weather and climate over western Siberia and East Asia. Associated with sea ice loss, the latitude（speed） of the jet stream shifts southward（reduces）,the wave extent amplifies, and blocking high events increase over the Ural Mountains, leading to increased frequency of cold air outbreaks extending from central Asia to northeast China. These associations bear a high degree of similarity to the observed atmospheric anomalies during the low sea ice epoch. By contrast, the patterns of atmospheric anomalies for the high sea ice epoch are different from those congruent with sea ice variability, which is related to the persistent negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation.

Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness data assimilation in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system

To improve the Arctic sea ice forecast skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model(FIO-ESM)climate forecast system,satellite-derived sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness from the Pan-Arctic IceOcean Modeling and Assimilation System(PIOMAS)are assimilated into this system,using the method of localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman filter(LESTKF).Five-year(2014–2018)Arctic sea ice assimilation experiments and a 2-month near-real-time forecast in August 2018 were conducted to study the roles of ice data assimilation.Assimilation experiment results show that ice concentration assimilation can help to get better modeled ice concentration and ice extent.All the biases of ice concentration,ice cover,ice volume,and ice thickness can be reduced dramatically through ice concentration and thickness assimilation.The near-real-time forecast results indicate that ice data assimilation can improve the forecast skill significantly in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system.The forecasted Arctic integrated ice edge error is reduced by around 1/3 by sea ice data assimilation.Compared with the six near-real-time Arctic sea ice forecast results from the subseasonal-toseasonal(S2 S)Prediction Project,FIO-ESM climate forecast system with LESTKF ice data assimilation has relatively high Arctic sea ice forecast skill in 2018 summer sea ice forecast.Since sea ice thickness in the PIOMAS is updated in time,it is a good choice for data assimilation to improve sea ice prediction skills in the near-realtime Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction.

The SOOS Asian Workshop on Southern Ocean research and observations

1 Background and purpose of workshop The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in the function of the Earth System, influencing climate, sea level, biogeochemical cycles, and biological productivity on a variety of scalesIll. Observations from the Southern Ocean suggest that dramatic changes are taking place, which are of global concern, yet because of its remote location, seasonal sea ice, and harsh environment, the Southern Ocean remains one of the least sampled zones in the world.

Middle-late Holocene environment change induced by climate and human based on multi-proxy records from the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River,eastern China

Our knowledge about the interaction between human activities and the environment in the middle-late Holocene remains incomplete.Core C1 in Lake Chaohu from the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLYR),eastern China,provides an opportunity to investigate vegetation and climate changes,human activities,and East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) evolution since 5100 cal.yr BP.These variables are assessed based on radiocarbon dating,pollen and charcoal records,and magnetic susceptibility (χ_(lf)),median grain size and TP.Results reveal a hiatus in sedimentation between 2080 and 730 cal.yr BP in the western part of Lake Chaohu,which is common in most lakes in the MLYR.Evergreen and deciduous broadleaved mixed forest retreated gradually after 3650 cal.yr BP,and was replaced by secondary Pinus forest after at least 730 cal.yr BP.Intense agricultural activities and vegetation clearance are first detected at 2520 cal.yr BP.Human settlements expanded from the lake front wetlands (during the period 2520–2080 cal.yr BP) to remote high-altitude areas(2080–400 cal.yr BP),and then returned to the lake front to reclaim the wetlands and lake (after 400 cal.yr BP).A gradual trend of recessional EASM strength from 4300 cal.yr BP and centennial-scale variations of EASM during the period5100–3650 cal.yr BP are revealed.The reduction of summer insolation,southward shift of the ITCZ,and El Ni?o Southern Oscillation may control the intensity of EASM and climate on a large regional scale.