Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused.In Connolly et al.,we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)and ST data sets.We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could(prematurely)conclude anything from the warming being“mostly human-caused”to“mostly natural.”Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was“erroneous”and“flawed”because we did not use a multilinear regression.They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement.They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date.However,here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series,the original conclusions of Connolly et al.are confirmed for all five ST data sets.Therefore,it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both.

Coupled hydro-thermo-mechanical modeling of hydraulic fracturing in quasi-brittle rocks using BPM-DEM

This paper presents an improved understanding of coupled hydro-thermo-mechanical(HTM) hydraulic fracturing of quasi-brittle rock using the bonded particle model(BPM) within the discrete element method(DEM). BPM has been recently extended by the authors to account for coupled convective econductive heat flow and transport, and to enable full hydro-thermal fluidesolid coupled modeling.The application of the work is on enhanced geothermal systems(EGSs), and hydraulic fracturing of hot dry rock(HDR) is studied in terms of the impact of temperature difference between rock and a flowing fracturing fluid. Micro-mechanical investigation of temperature and fracturing fluid effects on hydraulic fracturing damage in rocks is presented. It was found that fracture is shorter with pronounced secondary microcracking along the main fracture for the case when the convectiveeconductive thermal heat exchange is considered. First, the convection heat exchange during low-viscosity fluid infiltration in permeable rock around the wellbore causes significant rock cooling, where a finger-like fluid infiltration was observed. Second, fluid infiltration inhibits pressure rise during pumping and delays fracture initiation and propagation. Additionally, thermal damage occurs in the whole area around the wellbore due to rock cooling and cold fluid infiltration. The size of a damaged area around the wellbore increases with decreasing fluid dynamic viscosity. Fluid and rock compressibility ratio was found to have significant effect on the fracture propagation velocity.

Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change—Progress and Challenges

The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps： （1） use of general circulation models （GCMs） to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases, （2） use of downscaling techniques （both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods） for ＂downscaling＂ the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and （3） use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales. Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.

Decreasing Reference Evapotranspiration in a Warming Climate-A Case of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Catchment During 1970-2000

This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during 1970-2000 in the Yangtze River catchment. Relative contributions of the four meteorological variables to changes in the reference evapotranspiration are quantified. The results show that both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation have significant decreasing trends in the upper, the middle as well as in the whole Changjiang （Yangtze） River catchment at the 5% significance level, while the air temperature shows a significant increasing trend. The decreasing trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration can be attributed to the significant decreasing trends in the net radiation and the wind speed.

Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin, 1958-2007

The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid more and more attention. However, in China, the precipitation data are measured by weather stations （WS） of China Meteorological Administration and hydrological rain gauges （RG） of national and local hydrology bureau. The WS data usually have long record with fewer stations, while the RG data usually have short record with more stations. The consistency and correlation of these two data sets have not been well understood. In this paper, the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958-2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995-2004 in the Haihe River basin are examined and compared using linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Z test and F test methods. The results show that the annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed with minor difference in the mean value and variance. It is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by WS data sets. Using the extended precipitation data, the detailed spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as their temporal trends are calculated and mapped. The various distribution maps produced in the study show that for the whole basin the precipitation of 1958-2007 has been decreasing except for spring season. The decline trend is significant in summer, and this trend is stronger after the 1980s. The annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and changing trends are different in different regions and seasons. The precipitation is decreasing from south to north, from coastal zone to inland area.

Spatial Interpolation of Daily Precipitation in China:1951-2005

Climate research relies heavily on good quality instrumental data; for modeling efforts gridded data are needed. So far, relatively little effort has been made to create gridded climate data for China. This is especially true for high-resolution daily data. This work, focuses on identifying an accurate method to produce gridded daily precipitation in China based on the observed data at 753 stations for the period 1951-2005. Five interpolation methods, including ordinary nearest neighbor, local polynomial, radial basis function, inverse distance weighting, and ordinary kriging, have been used and compared. Cross-validation shows that the ordinary kriging based on seasonal semi-variograms gives the best performance, closely followed by the inverse distance weighting with a power of 2. Finally the ordinary kriging is chosen to interpolate the station data to a 18 km× 18 km grid system covering the whole country. Precipitation for each 0.5°×0.5° latitude-longitude block is then obtained by averaging the values at the grid nodes within the block. Owing to the higher station density in the eastern part of the country, the interpolation errors are much smaller than those in the west （west of 100°E）. Excluding 145 stations in the western region, the daily, monthly, and annual relative mean absolute errors of the interpolation for the remaining 608 stations are 74%, 29%, and 16%, respectively. The interpolated daily precipitation has been made available on the internet for the scientific community.

The coupling of dynamics and permeability in the hydrocarbon accumulation period controls the oil-bearing potential of low permeability reservoirs:a case study of the low permeability turbidite reservoirs in the middle part of the third member of Shahejie

The relationships between permeability and dynamics in hydrocarbon accumulation determine oil- bearing potential （the potential oil charge） of low perme- ability reservoirs. The evolution of porosity and permeability of low permeability turbidite reservoirs of the middle part of the third member of the Shahejie Formation in the Dongying Sag has been investigated by detailed core descriptions, thin section analyses, fluid inclusion analyses, carbon and oxygen isotope analyses, mercury injection, porosity and permeability testing, and basin modeling. The cutoff values for the permeability of the reservoirs in the accumulation period were calculated after detailing the accumulation dynamics and reservoir pore structures, then the distribution pattern of the oil-bearing potential of reservoirs controlled by the matching relationship between dynamics and permeability during the accumulation period were summarized. On the basis of the observed diagenetic features and with regard to the paragenetic sequences, the reservoirs can be subdivided into four types of diagenetic facies. The reservoirs experienced two periods of hydro- carbon accumulation. In the early accumulation period, the reservoirs except for diagenetic facies A had middle to high permeability ranging from 10 × 10-3 gm2 to 4207 × 10-3 lain2. In the later accumulation period, the reservoirs except for diagenetic facies C had low permeability ranging from 0.015 × 10-3 gm2 to 62× 10-3 -3m2. In the early accumulation period, the fluid pressure increased by the hydrocarbon generation was 1.4-11.3 MPa with an average value of 5.1 MPa, and a surplus pressure of 1.8-12.6 MPa with an average value of 6.3 MPa. In the later accumulation period, the fluid pressure increased by the hydrocarbon generation process was 0.7-12.7 MPa with an average value of 5.36 MPa and a surplus pressure of 1.3-16.2 MPa with an average value of 6.5 MPa. Even though different types of reservoirs exist, all can form hydrocarbon accumulations in the early accumulation per- iod. Such types of reservoirs can form hydrocarbon accumulation with high accumulation dynamics; however, reservoirs with diagenetic facies A and diagenetic facies B do not develop accumulation conditions with low accumu- lation dynamics in the late accumulation period for very low permeability. At more than 3000 m burial depth, a larger proportion of turbidite reservoirs are oil charged due to the proximity to the source rock, Also at these depths, lenticular sand bodies can accumulate hydrocarbons. At shallower depths, only the reservoirs with oil-source fault development can accumulate hydrocarbons. For flat surfaces, hydrocarbons have always been accumulated in the reservoirs around the oil-source faults and areas near the center of subsags with high accumulation dynamics.

Change of Annual Extreme Water Levels and Correlation with River Discharges in the Middle-lower Yangtze River: Characteristics and Possible Affecting Factors

As one of the fastest developing regions in China, the middle-lower Yangtze River （MLYR） is vulnerable to floods and droughts. With obtained time series of annual highest water level （HWL）, annual lowest water level （LWL） and the corresponding fiver discharges from three gauging stations in MLYR that covering the period 1987-2011, the current study evaluated the change character- istics of annual extreme water levels and the correlation with fiver discharges by using the methods of Vend test, Mann-Whitney-Pettitt （MWP） test and double mass analysis. Major result indicated a decreasing/increasing trend for annual HWL/LWL of all stations in MLYR during the study period. A change point in 1999 was identified for annual HWL at the Hankou and Datong stations. The year 2006 was found to be the critical year that the relationship between annual extreme water levels and fiver discharges changed in the MLYR. With contrast to annual LWL in MLYR, further investigation revealed that the change characteristics of annual HWL were highly consistent with regional precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin, while the linkage with Three Gorges Dam （TGD） operation is not strong. Our observation also pointed out that the effect of serious down cutting of the riverbed and the enlargement of the cross-section area during the initial period of TGD operation caused the downward trend of the relationship between annual LWL and river discharge. Whereas, the relatively raised river water level before the flood season due to TGD regulation since 2006 explained for the changing upward trend of the relationship between annual HWL and river discharge.

Analysis and prediction of reference evapotranspiration with climate change in Xiangjiang River Basin, China

Reference evapotranspiration （ETo） is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ETo in the Xiangjiang River Basin （XJRB） in China were analyzed. ETo during the period from 1961 to 2010 was calculated with historical meteorological data using the FAO Penman-Monteith （FAO P-M） method, while ETo during the period from 2011 to 2100 was downscaled from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） outputs under two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5 （RCP45 and RCP85）, using the statistical downscaling model （SDSM）. The spatial distribution and temporal trend of ETo were interpreted with the inverse distance weighted （IDW） method and Mann-Kendall test method, respectively. Results show that： （1） the mean annual ETo of the XJRB is 1 006.3 mm during the period from 1961 to 2010, and the lowest and highest values are found in the northeast and northwest parts due to the high latitude and spatial distribution of climatic factors, respectively; （2） the SDSM performs well in simulating the present ETo and can be used to predict the future ETo in the XJRB; and （3） CMIP5 predicts upward trends in annual ETo under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios during the period from 2011 to 2100. Compared with the reference period （1961-1990）, ETo increases by 9.8%, 12.6%, and 15.6% under the RCP45 scenario and 10.2%, 19.1%, and 27.3% under the RCP85 scenario during the periods from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100, respectively. The predicted increasing ETo under the RCP85 scenario is greater than that under the RCP45 scenario during the period from 2011 to 2100.

Spatio-temporal variations of vegetation carbon use efficiency and potential driving meteorological factors in the Yangtze River Basin

Understanding of the vegetation dynamics is essential for addressing the potential threats of terrestrial ecosystem.In recent years,the vegetation coverage of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)has increased significantly,yet the spatio-temporal variations and potential driving meteorological factors of carbon use efficiency(CUE)under the context of global warming are still not clear.In this study,MODIS-based public-domain data during 2000–2015 was used to analyze these aspects in the YRB,a large river basin with powerful ecological functions in China.Spatio-temporal variations of CUE in different sub-basins and land cover types were investigated and the correlations with potential driving meteorological factors were examined.Results revealed that CUE in the YRB had strong spatiotemporal variability and varied remarkably in different land cover types.For the whole YRB,the average CUE of vegetated land was 0.519,while the long-term change trend of CUE was obscure.Along the rising altitude,CUE generally showed an increasing trend until the altitude of 3900 m and then followed by a decreasing trend.CUE of grasslands was generally higher than that of croplands,and then forest lands.The inter-annual variation of CUE in the YRB is likely to be driven by precipitation as a strong positive partial correlation between the inter-annual variability of CUE and precipitation was observed in most of sub-basins and land cover types in the YRB.The influence of temperature and relative humidity is also outstanding in certain regions and land cover types.Our findings are useful from the view point of carbon cycle and reasonable land cover management under the context of global warming.

Pore Characteristics of the Fine-Grained Tight Reservoirs in the Yabulai Basin, Northwestern China

This work investigated the pore structure characteristics and reservoir features of the finegrained tight reservoirs in the lower member of the Xinhe Formation(J2x1) in the Xiaohu subsag,Yabulai Basin based on core samples through various techniques. Interbedded silt/fine sandstones and mudstones are developed in the study area. Scanning electron microscopy(SEM) images were used to delineate different types of pores, including primary intergranular pores, secondary intergranular and intragranular pores, organic pores and fractures. The pore types were distinguished by pore size, pore area, location and formation process. The pore radii of the fine-grained rocks range from 1 nm to 1.55μm, mainly concentrated between 5 and 300 nm by low pressure N2adsorption and MICP analyses. The pore structure parameters of pore throat size and pore throat sorting coefficient are both positively correlated with porosity, while pore throat sorting coefficient has a negative correlation with permeability. The pore structures of the studied samples are much related to the mineral type and content and grain size, followed by TOC content. In these rocks with relatively low TOC and low maturity, the rigid minerals protect pores with pressure shadow from collapse, and dissolution-related pores contribute a lot to inorganic porosity. In contrast, these rocks with abundant TOC contain a large number of organic pores. The permeability of the fine-grained tight reservoir is mainly dominated by larger pore throats, while a large number of small pores(mostly <0.1 μm) contribute considerably to porosity. These results have deepened our understanding of the interbedded fine-grained tight reservoirs and can be applicable to fine-grained reservoirs in a similar setting.

Structure and evolution of the continental margin off Norway and the Barents Sea

The Norwegian Margin formed in response to early Cenozoic continental breakup and subsequent opening of the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. There is a welldefined margin segmentation and the various segments are characterized by distinct crustal properties, structural and magmatic styles, and post-opening history of vertical motions. The sedimentary basins at the conjugate continental margins off Norway and Greenland and in the western Barents Sea developed as a result of a series of post-Caledonian rift episodes until early Cenozoic time, when complete continental separation took place.

Glacier variations and their response to climate change in an arid inland river basin of Northwest China

Glaciers are a critical freshwater resource of river recharge in arid areas around the world.In recent decades,glaciers have shown evidence of retreat due to climate change,and the accelerated ablation of glaciers and associated impacts on water resources have received widespread attention.Glacier variations result from climate change,so they can serve as an indicator of climate change.Considering the climatic differences in different elevation ranges,it is worthwhile to explore whether different responses exist between glacier area and air temperature in each elevation zone.In this study,we selected a typical arid inland river basin(Sugan Lake Basin)in the western Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to analyze the glacier variations and their response to climate change.The glacier area data from 1989 to 2016 were delineated using Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM),Enhanced TM+(ETM+)and Operational Land Imager(OLI)images.We compared the relationships between glacier area and air temperature at seven meteorological stations in the glacier-covered areas and in the Sugan Lake Basin,and further analyzed the relationship between glacier area and mean air temperature of the glacier surfaces in July–August in the elevation range of 4700–5500 m a.s.l.by the linear regression method and correlation analysis.In addition,based on the linear regression relationship established between glacier area and air temperature in each elevation zone,we predicted glacier areas under future climate scenarios during the periods of 2046–2065 and 2081–2100.The results indicate that the glaciers experienced a remarkable shrinkage from 1989 to 2016 with a shrinkage rate of–1.61 km^2/a(–0.5%/a),and the rising temperature is the decisive factor dominating glacial retreat;there is a significant negative linear correlation between glacier area and mean air temperature of the glacier surfaces in July–August in each elevation zone from 1989 to 2016.The variations in glaciers are far less sensitive to changes in precipitation than to changes in air temperature.Due to the influence of climate and topographic conditions,the distribution of glacier area and the rate of glacier ablation first increased and then decreased in different elevation zones.The trend in glacier shrinkage will continue because air temperature will continue to increase in the future,and the result of glacier retreat in each elevation zone will be slightly slower than that in the entire study area.Quantitative glacier research can more accurately reflect the response of glacier variations to climate change,and the regression relationship can be used to predict the areas of glaciers under future climate scenarios.These conclusions can offer effective references for assessing glacier variations and their response to climate change in arid inland river basins in Northwest China as well as other similar regions in the world.

Issues influencing accuracy of hydrological modeling in a changing environment

Hydrological models have undergone a long period of development and application.Many hydrological models of different temporal and spatial scales have been developed and applied in various fields of hydrological research and hydro-logical engineering,including hydrological forecasting,water resources estimation,river basin management,reservoir design and operation,and runoff simulation in ungauged regions.They have also been used in research on the impact of land use change and climate change.Recently,hydrological models have taken on the most important problem-solving tasks in hydrology.

Drought Pattern along the Coastal Forest Zone of Tanzania

This study focused on identifying drought patterns particularly during the growing seasons along the coastal zone of Tanzania in order to facilitate the determination of drought impacts on forest Ecosystem. The growing seasons were March, April and May (MAM) referred as long growing season and October, November and December (OND) which is known as short growing season. The main data were precipitation from 16 weather stations covering the coastal zones of Tanzania. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to establish meteorological drought patterns. The duration of records was between 34 and 59 years depending on the available data on the concerned stations. The SPI time series of 3 and 12 months showed that the coastal region of Tanzania experienced frequent drought conditions ranging from mild, moderate, severe and extreme droughts during both short and long growing seasons. It was found that the coastal zone of Tanzania experienced higher drought duration, severity and intensity with frequent extreme events after 2000 than before. Despite that Kisarawe area revealed low frequency of drought events (88%) than other study areas;it exhibited greater frequency of extreme droughts (46%) over the whole study areas. Higher drought duration (40 months) and severity (sum of SPI -36) were observed for precipitation data from Unguja Islands, while data from Julius Nyerere International Airport areas displayed higher drought intensity (SPI value of -1.9). Generally, Tanzania coastal zone was never completely without drought or anomalously wet conditions at any time scale during the period of record. The coastal zone was nearly entirely in drought periods especially the last decade after 2000. This suggests that vegetation in the coastal zone might have experienced the impacts of these droughts within the period. The magnitude of the impacts will be understood by tracking changes of biomass and forest cover along the coastal zone within the last decade from 2000 to 2011 in addition to the 1990/92 which experienced drought dominance for Pemba.

Characterisation of Na-metasomatism in the Sveconorwegian Bamble Sector of South Norway

Na-metasomatism in the form of albitisation is regionally extensive in the Precambrian crust of southern Scandinavia and is particularly widespread in the Bamble Sector, the Kongsberg-Modum Sector and the Norwegian part of the Mylonite Zone. Sites of albitisation outside these belts are associated with hy- drothermal breccia pipes and fracture-bound alteration. The albitites are composed of near end-member sodic plagioclase （Ano 5Ab94-99） with minor carbonate （calcite and dolomite）, rutile, clinopyroxene （En30Fs21-23W047 49）, amphibole （edenite-pargasite）, quartz, titanite, tourmaline, epidote （Fe3＋ - 0.20 -0.85 a.p.f.u） and chlorite （Mg# = 0.81-0.89）. The albitites have been studied in detail in the region around the town of Kragem, and are described as albitisation along veins, as breccias, alhitic felsites, massive carbonate-bearing albitites and megascale clinopyroxene-titanite-bearing albitite. The strong fluid control on their formation is illustrated by the veining and mineral replacement reactions, showing fluid transport by a H20-CO2 fluid rich in Na, depleting Fe and Mg from the host rock, in accordance with calculated mass transfer. A study of the mineralogical replacement reactions in combination with a regional compilation has demonstrated the relationship between metasomatic processes and the for- mation of apatite, ruti｜e and Fe deposits. The albitites occur spatially associated with other metasomatic rocks such as scapolitised metagabbros. We document that metasomatism is an important mineral- and rock-forming process in the continental crust, which in the Bamble Sector is a part of the tectonome- tamorphic evolution of the Sveconorwegian orogen.

Geochemistry and geochronology of mafic rocks from the Spanish Central System:Constraints on the mantle evolution beneath central Spain

The Spanish Central System(SCS)contains several suites of Palaeozoic mafic igneous intrusions with contrasting geochemical affinity:Ordovician tholeiitic metabasites,Variscan calc-alkaline gabbros(Gb1)and microdiorites(Gb2),shoshonitic monzogabbros(Gb3)and alkaline diabases and lamprophyres(Gb4).Not all of these rocks are accurately dated,and several aspects of their genesis are still poorly understood.We present new whole-rock geochemical data(major and trace elements,and Sr-Nd isotopes),U-Pb and Lu-Hf isotopic ratios on magmatic zircons and 40 Ar/39Ar amphibole geochronology results in order to establish a precise chronology for the successive events of magmatism in the SCS,and discuss the nature of their mantle sources.Accurate ages have been determined for the Variscan gabbros(305-294 Ma),the microdiorites(299 Ma)and the accompanying felsic porphyries(292 Ma),the shoshonitic monzogabbros(285 Ma),and the alkaline diabases(274 Ma)and monzosyenites(271-264 Ma).According to this information,the Variscan mafic magmatism would be mainly concentrated in the range of 305-294 Ma,with a final manifestation represented by the minor shoshonitic dykes.The alkaline magmatism proved to be slightly older than previously thought and yielded at least two distinct pulses:diabases and lamprophyres-monzosyenites.Zircon Hf isotopes evidence the involvement of depleted and slightly enriched mantle sources.The bulk of the eHf values are in the broad range of-8 to+11,indicative of melting both depleted and enriched mantle regions.The high within-sample Hf isotope variation(up to-11 epsilon units)shown by samples from the Variscan series(gabbros,microdiorites and monzogabbros)could be explained mainly by hybridisation of magmas derived from heterogeneous lithospheric mantle sources.Pressure estimates indicate that the Variscan mafic magmas were extracted from the lithosphere.The Nd-Hf isotopic composition of these suites of rocks suggests the recycling of pelitic sediments during the Cadomian orogeny.Deeper(asthenospheric)mantle levels were involved in the generation of the alkaline suite,whose anomalous negative eHf values(moderately decoupled with respect to radiogenic Nd)could be associated with subducted oceanic components raised by mantle upwelling associated with lithosphere thinning and extension during the Permian.

Evaluating Functions of Reservoirs'Storage Capacities and Locations on Daily Peak Attenuation for Ganjiang River Basin Using Xinanjiang Model

Flooding is the most prevalent and costly natural disaster in the world and building reservoirs is one of the major structural measures for flood control and management. In this paper, a framework was proposed to evaluate functions of reservoirs′ locations and magnitudes on daily peak flow attenuation for a large basin of China, namely Ganjiang River Basin. In this study, the Xinanjiang model was adopted to simulate inflows of the reservoirs and flood hydrographs of all sub-catchments of the basin, and simple reservoir operation rules were established for calculating outflows of the reservoirs. Four reservoirs scenarios were established to analyze reservoirs′ locations on daily peak flow attenuation. The results showed that: 1) reservoirs attenuated the peak discharges for all simulated floods, when the flood storage capacities increase as new reservoirs were built, the peak discharge attenuation by reservoirs showed an increasing tendency both in absolute and relative measures; 2) reservoirs attenuated more peak discharge relatively for small floods than for large ones; 3) reservoirs reduced the peak discharge more efficiently for the floods with single peak or multi peaks with main peak occurred first; and 4) effect of upstream reservoirs on peak attenuation decreased from upper reaches to lower reaches; upstream and midstream reservoirs played important roles in decreasing peak discharge both at middle and lower reaches, and downstream reservoirs had less effect on large peak discharge attenuation at outlet of the basin. The proposed framework of evaluating functions of multiple reservoirs′ storage capacities and locations on peak attenuation is valuable for flood control planning and management at basin scale.

Resistivity of reservoir sandstones and organic rich shales on the Barents Shelf: Implications for interpreting CSEM data

Marine controlled source electromagnetic(CSEM) data have been utilized in the past decade during petroleum exploration of the Barents Shelf, particularly for de-risking the highly porous sandstone reservoirs of the Upper Triassic to Middle Jurassic Realgrunnen Subgroup. In this contribution we compare the resistivity response from CSEM data to resistivity from wireline logs in both water-and hydrocarbon-bearing wells. We show that there is a very good match between these types of data, particularly when reservoirs are shallow. CSEM data, however, only provide information on the subsurface resistivity. Careful, geology-driven interpretation of CSEM data is required to maximize the impact on exploration success. This is particularly important when quantifying the relative resistivity contribution of high-saturation hydrocarbon-bearing sandstone and that of the overlying cap rock. In the presented case the cap rock comprises predominantly organic rich Upper Jurassic–Early Cretaceous shales of the Hekkingen Formation(i.e. a regional source rock). The resistivity response of the reservoir and its cap rock become merged in CSEM data due to the transverse resistance equivalence principle. As a result of this, it is imperative to understand both the relative contributions from reservoir and cap rock, and the geological significance of any lateral resistivity variation in each of the units. In this contribution, we quantify the resistivity of organic rich mudstone, i.e. source rock, and reservoir sandstones, using 131 exploration boreholes from the Barents Shelf. The highest resistivity(>10,000 Ωm) is evident in the hydrocarbon-bearing Realgrunnen Subgroup which is reported from 48 boreholes, 43 of which are used for this study. Pay zone resistivity is primarily controlled by reservoir quality(i.e. porosity and shale fraction) and fluid phase(i.e. gas, oil and water saturation).In the investigated wells, the shale dominated Hekkingen Formation exhibits enhanced resistivity compared to the background(i.e. the underlying and overlying stratigraphy), though rarely exceeds 20 Ωm. Marine mudstones typically show good correlation between measured organic richness and resistivity/sonic velocity log signatures.We conclude that the resistivity contribution to the CSEM response from hydrocarbon-bearing sandstones outweighs that of the organic rich cap rocks.

Structural and Stratigraphical Correlation of Seismic Profiles between Drigri Anticline and Bahawalpur High in Central Indus Basin of Pakistan

Publicly available seismic and well data are used to study the subsurface structure and stratigraphy of an area on the southern margin of the Central Indus Basin (CIB), Pakistan. Study area includes southern parts of the Punjab Platform and Sulaiman Foredeep tectonic units of the CIB. A regional scale East-West depth cross-section is prepared in South of hydrocarbon bearing Safed Koh Trend to Punjab Platform. It gives the structural configuration of various formations of Paleozoic-Cenozoic times. Reflectors are marked and correlated with the help of wells Drigri-01 and Bahawalpur East-01, located on seismic lines 914-RPR-03 and 916-YZM-05 respectively. These reflectors/formations are correlated with respect to ages to avoid the confusions as there are many truncations in the area. Average velocities are used for the depth computation. Depth cross-section (AB) shows that Punjab Monocline is a stable area with a shallow basement. In Punjab Platform all the formations dip gently to the West. Then they attain steep dips in the Sulaiman Foredeep/Depression area. Depth cross-section along the Drigri anticline which lies in the SE of Sakhi Sarwar anticline reveals that it is extended E-W over 17 km approx. and the reverse faults are present on both flanks of a fold, due to that a pop up structure is formed. It’s a low amplitude fold, as it marks the southern end of Safed Koh Trend (first line of folding of the folded flank of Sub-Sulaiman Fore Deep). Subsurface structural variations at Bahawalpur show a buried high of Jurassic-Permian age. A sedimentary cover is 9 km thick in West and 3 m thick in East. Basement is uplifted at Bahawalpur High.