An Examination of Male and Female Monthly Employment Rates over Time in Canada and the United States Using Hidden Markov Probability Models

In this paper, we will illustrate the use and power of Hidden Markov models in analyzing multivariate data over time. The data used in this study was obtained from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD. Stat database url: https://stats.oecd.org/) and encompassed monthly data on the employment rate of males and females in Canada and the United States (aged 15 years and over;seasonally adjusted from January 1995 to July 2018). Two different underlying patterns of trends in employment over the 23 years observation period were uncovered.

Using Excel to Explore the Effects of Assumption Violations on One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Statistical Procedures

To understand any statistical tool requires not only an understanding of the relevant computational procedures but also an awareness of the assumptions upon which the procedures are based, and the effects of violations of these assumptions. In our earlier articles (Laverty, Miket, & Kelly [1]) and (Laverty & Kelly, [2] [3]) we used Microsoft Excel to simulate both a Hidden Markov model and heteroskedastic models showing different realizations of these models and the performance of the techniques for identifying the underlying hidden states using simulated data. The advantage of using Excel is that the simulations are regenerated when the spreadsheet is recalculated allowing the user to observe the performance of the statistical technique under different realizations of the data. In this article we will show how to use Excel to generate data from a one-way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) model and how the statistical methods behave both when the fundamental assumptions of the model hold and when these assumptions are violated. The purpose of this article is to provide tools for individuals to gain an intuitive understanding of these violations using this readily available program.

On the Markov Chain Binomial Model

Rudolfer [1] studied properties and estimation of a state Markov chain binomial (MCB) model of extra-binomial variation. The variance expression in Lemma 4 is stated without proof but is incorrect, resulting in both Lemma 5 and Theorem 2 also being incorrect. These errors were corrected in Rudolfer [2]. In Sections 2 and 3 of this paper, a new derivation of the variance expression in a setting involving the natural parameters ?is presented and the relation of the MCB model to Edwards’ [3] probability generating function (pgf) approach is discussed. Section 4 deals with estimation of the model parameters. Estimation by the maximum likelihood method is difficult for a larger number n of Markov trials due to the complexity of the calculation of probabilities using Equation (3.2) of Rudolfer [1]. In this section, the exact maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters is obtained utilizing a sequence of Markov trials each involving n observations from a {0,1}-?state MCB model and may be used for any value of n. Two examples in Section 5 illustrate the usefulness of the MCB model. The first example gives corrected results for Skellam’s Brassica data while the second applies the “sequence approach” to data from Crouchley and Pickles [4].

Lie Invariants in Two and Three Variables

We use computer algebra to determine the Lie invariants of degree ≤ 12 in the free Lie algebra on two generators corresponding to the natural representation of the simple 3-dimensional Lie algebra sl2（C）. We then consider the free Lie algebra on three generators, and compute the Lie invariants of degree ≤ 7 corresponding to the adjoint representation of sl2（C）, and the Lie invariants of degree ≤ 9 corresponding to the natural representation of sl3（C）. We represent the action of sl2（C） and sl3（C） on Lie polynomials by computing the coefficient matrix with respect to the basis of Hall words.