This article reviews Fuqing ZHANG’s contributions to mesoscale atmospheric science,from research to mentoring to academic service,over his 20-year career.His fundamental scientific contributions on predictability,dat...This article reviews Fuqing ZHANG’s contributions to mesoscale atmospheric science,from research to mentoring to academic service,over his 20-year career.His fundamental scientific contributions on predictability,data assimilation,and dynamics of high impact weather,especially gravity waves and tropical cyclones,are highlighted.His extremely generous efforts to efficiently transmit to the community new scientific knowledge and ideas through mentoring,interacting,workshop organizing,and reviewing are summarized.Special appreciation is given to his tremendous contributions to the development of mesoscale meteorology in China and the education of Chinese graduate students and young scientists.展开更多
The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,resear...The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,research into using infrared radiance observations for numerically predicting and analyzing tropical mesoscale convective systems remain mostly fallow.Since tropical mesoscale convective systems play a crucial role in regional and global weather,this deficit should be addressed.This study is the first of its kind to examine the potential impacts of assimilating all-sky upper tropospheric infrared radiance observations on the prediction of a tropical squall line.Even though these all-sky infrared radiance observations are not directly affected by lower-tropospheric winds,the high-frequency assimilation of these all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses of the tropical squall line’s outflow position.Aside from that,the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses and prediction of the squall line’s cloud field.Finally,reducing the frequency of assimilating these all-sky infrared radiance observations weakened these improvements to the analyzed outflow position,as well as the analyses and predictions of cloud fields.展开更多
This study explores the structures of the correlations between infrared(IR)brightness temperatures(BTs)from the three water vapor channels of the Advanced Baseline Imager(ABI)onboard the GOES-16 satellite and the atmo...This study explores the structures of the correlations between infrared(IR)brightness temperatures(BTs)from the three water vapor channels of the Advanced Baseline Imager(ABI)onboard the GOES-16 satellite and the atmospheric state.Ensemble-based data assimilation techniques such as the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)rely on correlations to propagate innovations of BTs to increments of model state variables.Because the three water vapor channels are sensitive to moisture in different layers of the troposphere,the heights of the strongest correlations between these channels and moisture in clear-sky regions are closely related to the peaks of their respective weighting functions.In cloudy regions,the strongest correlations appear at the cloud tops of deep clouds,and ice hydrometeors generally have stronger correlations with BT than liquid hydrometeors.The magnitudes of the correlations decrease from the peak value in a column with both vertical and horizontal distance.Just how the correlations decrease depend on both the cloud scenes and the cloud structures,as well as the model variables.Horizontal correlations between BTs and moisture,as well as hydrometeors,in fully cloudy regions decrease to almost 0 at about 30 km.The horizontal correlations with atmospheric state variables in clear-sky regions are broader,maintaining non-zero values out to~100 km.The results in this study provide information on the proper choice of cut-off radii in horizontal and vertical localization schemes for the assimilation of BTs.They also provide insights on the most efficient and effective use of the different water vapor channels.展开更多
Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone(TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary...Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone(TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary satellite GOES-13 on the convection-permitting initialization and prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015) with an ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Given that almost all operational global and regional models struggled to capture Hurricane Joaquin(2015)'s intensity, this study examines the potential in improving Joaquin's prediction when assimilating all-sky infrared radiances from GOES-13's water vapor channel. It is demonstrated that, after a few 3-hour cycles assimilating all-sky radiance, the WRF model was able to forecast reasonably well Joaquin's intensity,including its rapid intensification(RI). The improvement was largely due to a more realistic initial hurricane structure with a stronger, warmer, and more compact inner-core. Ensemble forecasts were used to further explore the important physical mechanisms driving the hurricane's RI. Results showed that the RI forecasts were greatly impacted by the initial inner-core vortex structure.展开更多
The existence of outliers can seriously influence the analysis of variational data assimilation.Quality control allows us to effectively eliminate or absorb these outliers to produce better analysis fields.In particul...The existence of outliers can seriously influence the analysis of variational data assimilation.Quality control allows us to effectively eliminate or absorb these outliers to produce better analysis fields.In particular,variational quality control(VarQC) can process gray zone outliers and is thus broadly used in variational data assimilation systems.In this study,governing equations are derived for two VarQC algorithms that utilize different contaminated Gaussian distributions(CGDs): Gaussian plus flat distribution and Huber norm distribution.As such,these VarQC algorithms can handle outliers that have non-Gaussian innovations.Then,these VarQC algorithms are implemented in the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System(GRAPES) model-level three-dimensional variational data assimilation(m3 DVAR) system.Tests using artificial observations indicate that the VarQC method using the Huber distribution has stronger robustness for including outliers to improve posterior analysis than the VarQC method using the Gaussian plus flat distribution.Furthermore,real observation experiments show that the distribution of observation analysis weights conform well with theory,indicating that the application of VarQC is effective in the GRAPES m3 DVAR system.Subsequent case study and longperiod data assimilation experiments show that the spatial distribution and amplitude of the observation analysis weights are related to the analysis increments of the mass field(geopotential height and temperature).Compared to the control experiment,VarQC experiments have noticeably better posterior mass fields.Finally,the VarQC method using the Huber distribution is superior to the VarQC method using the Gaussian plus flat distribution,especially at the middle and lower levels.展开更多
In recent years, there has been increasing demand for high-resolution seasonal climate forecasts at sufficient lead times to allow response planning from users in agriculture, hydrology, disaster risk management, and ...In recent years, there has been increasing demand for high-resolution seasonal climate forecasts at sufficient lead times to allow response planning from users in agriculture, hydrology, disaster risk management, and health, among others. This paper examines the forecasting skill of the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) over Ethiopia during the June to September (JJAS) season. The NMME, one of the multi-model seasonal forecasting systems, regularly generates monthly seasonal rainfall forecasts over the globe with 0.5 <span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 11.5 months lead time. The skill and predictability of seasonal rainfall are assessed using 28 years of hindcast data from the NMME models. The forecast skill is quantified using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and root mean square error. The results show that the NMME models capture the JJAS seasonal rainfall over central, northern, and northeastern parts of Ethiopia while exhibiting weak or limited skill across western and southwestern Ethiopia. The performance of each model in predicting the JJAS seasonal rainfall is variable, showing greater skill in predicting dry conditions. Overall, the performance of the multi-model ensemble was not consistently better than any single ensemble member. The correlation of observed and predicted </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">seasonal rainfall for the better performing models</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">—GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> CMC2-CanCM4, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01 and NASA-GMAO-062012</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">—</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is 0.68, 0.58, 0.52, and 0.5, respectively. The COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, CMC1-</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CanCM3 and NCEP-CFSv2 models exhibit less skill, with correlations less than 0.4. In general, the NMME offers promising skill to predict seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia during the June-September (JJAS) season, motivating further work to assess its performance at longer lead times.</span>展开更多
Synoptic meteorology is a branch of meteorology that uses synoptic weather observations and charts for the diagnosis,study,and forecasting of weather.Weather refers to the specific state of the atmosphere near the Ea...Synoptic meteorology is a branch of meteorology that uses synoptic weather observations and charts for the diagnosis,study,and forecasting of weather.Weather refers to the specific state of the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface during a short period of time.The spatial distribution of meteorological elements in the atmosphere can be represented by a variety of transient weather phenomena,which are caused by weather systems of different spatial and temporal scales.Weather is closely related to people’s life,and its development and evolution have always been the focus of atmospheric scientific research and operation.The development of synoptic meteorology is closely related to the development of observation systems,dynamical theories and numerical models.In China,observation networks have been built since the early 1950 s.Up to now,a comprehensive meteorological observation systembased on ground,air and space has been established.In particular,the development of a new generation of dense radar networks,the development of the Fengyun satellite series and the implementation of a series of large field experiments have brought our understanding of weather from large-scale environment to thermal dynamics,cloud microphysical structure and evolution characteristics of meso and micro-scale weather systems.The development of observation has also promoted the development of theory,numerical model and simulation.In the early days,China mainly used foreign numerical models.Lately,China has developed numerical model systems with independent intellectual property rights.Based on the results of high-resolution numerical simulations,in-depth understanding of the initiation and evolution mechanism and predictability of weather at different scales has been obtained.Synoptic meteorology has gradually changed from an initially independent development to a multidisciplinary approach,and the interaction between weather and the change of climate and environment has become a hot and frontier topic in atmospheric science.This paper reviews the important scientific and technological achievements made in China over the past 70 years in the fields of synoptic meteorology based on the literatures in China and abroad,from six aspects respectively including atmospheric dynamics,synoptic-scale weather,typhoon and tropical weather,severe convective weather,numerical weather prediction and data assimilation,weather and climate,atmospheric physics and atmospheric environment.展开更多
Although tropical cyclone track forecast errors have substantially decreased in recent decades,there are still cases each season with large uncertainties in the forecasts and/or very large track errors.As such cases a...Although tropical cyclone track forecast errors have substantially decreased in recent decades,there are still cases each season with large uncertainties in the forecasts and/or very large track errors.As such cases are challenging for forecasters,it is important to understand the mechanisms behind the low predictability.For this purpose the research community has developed a number of tools.These tools include ensemble and adjoint sensitivity models,ensemble perturbation experiments and nudging experiments.In this report we discuss definitions of difficult cases for tropical cyclone track forecasts,diagnostic techniques to understand sources of errors,lessons learnt in recent years and recommendations for future work.展开更多
To better understand how model resolution affects the formation of Arctic boundary layer clouds,we investigated the influence of grid spacing on simulating cloud streets that occurred near Utqiaġvik(formerly Barrow),A...To better understand how model resolution affects the formation of Arctic boundary layer clouds,we investigated the influence of grid spacing on simulating cloud streets that occurred near Utqiaġvik(formerly Barrow),Alaska,on 2 May 2013 and were observed by MODIS(the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer).The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the clouds using nested domains with increasingly fine resolution ranging from a horizontal grid spacing of 27 km in the boundary-layer-parameterized mesoscale domain to a grid spacing of 0.111 km in the large-eddy-permitting domain.We investigated the model-simulated mesoscale environment,horizontal and vertical cloud structures,boundary layer stability,and cloud properties,all of which were subsequently used to interpret the observed roll-cloud case.Increasing model resolution led to a transition from a more buoyant boundary layer to a more shear-driven turbulent boundary layer.The clouds were stratiform-like in the mesoscale domain,but as the model resolution increased,roll-like structures,aligned along the wind field,appeared with ever smaller wavelengths.A stronger vertical water vapor gradient occurred above the cloud layers with decreasing grid spacing.With fixed model grid spacing at 0.333 km,changing the model configuration from a boundary layer parameterization to a large-eddy-permitting scheme produced a more shear-driven and less unstable environment,a stronger vertical water vapor gradient below the cloud layers,and the wavelengths of the rolls decreased slightly.In this study,only the large-eddy-permitting simulation with gird spacing of 0.111 km was sufficient to model the observed roll clouds.展开更多
Based on daily precipitation data of more than 2000 Chinese stations and more than 50 yr, we constructed time series of extreme precipitation based on six different indices for each station: annual and summer maximum(...Based on daily precipitation data of more than 2000 Chinese stations and more than 50 yr, we constructed time series of extreme precipitation based on six different indices for each station: annual and summer maximum(top-1) precipitation,accumulated amount of 10 precipitation maxima(annual, summer; top-10), and total annual and summer precipitation.Furthermore, we constructed the time series of the total number of stations based on the total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 annual extreme precipitation for the whole data period, the whole country, and six subregions, respectively. Analysis of these time series indicate three regions with distinct trends of extreme precipitation:(1) a positive trend region in Southeast China,(2) a positive trend region in Northwest China, and(3) a negative trend region in North China. Increasing(decreasing)ratios of 10–30% or even >30% were observed in these three regions. The national total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation extremes increased respectively by 2.4 and 15 stations per decade on average but with great inter-annual variations.There have been three periods with highly frequent precipitation extremes since 1960:(1) early 1960 s,(2) middle and late 1990 s,and(3) early 21 st century. There are significant regional differences in trends of regional total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation. The most significant increase was observed over Northwest China. During the same period, there are significant changes in the atmospheric variables that favor the decrease of extreme precipitation over North China: an increase in the geopotential height over North China and its upstream regions, a decrease in the low-level meridional wind from South China coast to North China, and the corresponding low moisture content in North China. The extreme precipitation values with a50-year empirical return period are 400–600 mm at the South China coastal regions and gradually decrease to less than 50 mm in Northwest China. The mean increase rate in comparison with 20-year empirical return levels is 6.8%. The historical maximum precipitation is more than twice the 50-year return levels.展开更多
The characteristics and dynamics associated with the distribution, intensity, and triggering factors of local severe precipitation in Zhejiang Province induced by Super Typhoon Soudelor(2015) were investigated using m...The characteristics and dynamics associated with the distribution, intensity, and triggering factors of local severe precipitation in Zhejiang Province induced by Super Typhoon Soudelor(2015) were investigated using mesoscale surface observations, radar reflectivity, satellite nephograms, and the final(FNL) analyses of the Global Forecasting System(GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP). The rainfall processes during Soudelor's landfall and translation over East China could be separated into four stages based on rainfall characteristics such as distribution, intensity, and corresponding dynamics. The relatively less precipitation in the first stage resulted from interaction between the easterly wind to the north flank of this tropical cyclone(TC) and the coastal topography along the southeast of Zhejiang Province, China. With landfall of the TC in East China during the second stage, precipitation maxima occurred because of interaction between the TC's principal rainbands and the local topography from northeastern Fujian Province to southwestern Zhejiang Province. The distribution of precipitation presented significant asymmetric features in the third stage with maximal rainfall bands in the northeast quadrant of the TC when Soudelor's track turned from westward to northward as the TC decayed rapidly. Finally, during the northward to northeastward translation of the TC in the fourth stage, the interaction between a mid-latitude weather system and the northern part of the TC resulted in transfer of the maximum rainfall from the north of Zhejiang Province to the north of Jiangsu Province,which represented the end of rainfall in Zhejiang Province. Further quantitative calculations of the rainfall rate induced by the interaction between local topography and TC circulation(defined as "orographic effects") in the context of a one-dimensional simplified model showed that orographic effects were the primary factor determining the intensity of precipitation in this case,and accounted for over 50% of the total precipitation. The asymmetric distribution of the TC's rainbands was closely related to the asymmetric distribution of moisture resulted from changes of the TC's structure, and led to asymmetric distribution of local intense precipitation induced by Soudelor. Based on analysis of this TC, it could be concluded that local severe rainfall in the coastal regions of East China is closely related to changes of TC structure and intensity, as well as the outer rainbands. In addition, precipitation intensity and duration will increase correspondingly because of the complex interactions between the TC and local topography, and the particular TC track along large-scale steering flow. The results of this study may be useful for the understanding, prediction, and warning of disasters induced by local extreme rainfall caused by TCs, especially for facilitating forecasting and warning of flooding and mudslides associated with torrential rain caused by interactions between landfalling TCs and coastal topography.展开更多
This study explores the controlling factors of the uncertainties and error growth at different spatial and temporal scales in forecasting the high-impact extremely heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan...This study explores the controlling factors of the uncertainties and error growth at different spatial and temporal scales in forecasting the high-impact extremely heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan Province China on 19−20 July 2021 with a record-breaking hourly rainfall exceeding 200 mm and a 24-h rainfall exceeding 600 mm.Results show that the strengths of the mid-level low-pressure system,the upper-level divergence,and the low-level jet determine both the amount of the extreme 24-h accumulated and hourly rainfall at 0800 UTC.The forecast uncertainties of the accumulated rainfall are insensitive to the magnitude and the spatial structure of the tiny,unobservable errors in the initial conditions of the ensemble forecasts generated with Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS)or sub-grid-scale perturbations,suggesting that the predictability of this event is intrinsically limited.The dominance of upscale rather than upamplitude error growth is demonstrated under the regime of k^(−5/3) power spectra by revealing the inability of large-scale errors to grow until the amplitude of small-scale errors has increased to an adequate amplitude,and an apparent transfer of the fastest growing scale from smaller to larger scales with a slower growth rate at larger scales.Moist convective activities play a critical role in enhancing the overall error growth rate with a larger error growth rate at smaller scales.In addition,initial perturbations with different structures have different error growth features at larger scales in different variables in a regime transitioning from the k^(−5/3) to k^(−3) power law.Error growth with conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)tends to be more upamplitude relative to the GEFS or sub-grid-scale perturbations possibly owing to the inherited error growth feature of CNOP,the inability of convective parameterization scheme to rebuild the k^(−5/3) power spectra at the mesoscales,and different error growth characteristics in the k^(−5/3) and k^(−3) regimes.展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030604,41875051,and 41425018)during the writing of this review。
文摘This article reviews Fuqing ZHANG’s contributions to mesoscale atmospheric science,from research to mentoring to academic service,over his 20-year career.His fundamental scientific contributions on predictability,data assimilation,and dynamics of high impact weather,especially gravity waves and tropical cyclones,are highlighted.His extremely generous efforts to efficiently transmit to the community new scientific knowledge and ideas through mentoring,interacting,workshop organizing,and reviewing are summarized.Special appreciation is given to his tremendous contributions to the development of mesoscale meteorology in China and the education of Chinese graduate students and young scientists.
文摘The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,research into using infrared radiance observations for numerically predicting and analyzing tropical mesoscale convective systems remain mostly fallow.Since tropical mesoscale convective systems play a crucial role in regional and global weather,this deficit should be addressed.This study is the first of its kind to examine the potential impacts of assimilating all-sky upper tropospheric infrared radiance observations on the prediction of a tropical squall line.Even though these all-sky infrared radiance observations are not directly affected by lower-tropospheric winds,the high-frequency assimilation of these all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses of the tropical squall line’s outflow position.Aside from that,the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses and prediction of the squall line’s cloud field.Finally,reducing the frequency of assimilating these all-sky infrared radiance observations weakened these improvements to the analyzed outflow position,as well as the analyses and predictions of cloud fields.
基金supported by the NASA under awards NNX15AQ51G and 80NSSC19K0728the ONR under award N000141812517the NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality under award NA18OAR4590369.
文摘This study explores the structures of the correlations between infrared(IR)brightness temperatures(BTs)from the three water vapor channels of the Advanced Baseline Imager(ABI)onboard the GOES-16 satellite and the atmospheric state.Ensemble-based data assimilation techniques such as the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)rely on correlations to propagate innovations of BTs to increments of model state variables.Because the three water vapor channels are sensitive to moisture in different layers of the troposphere,the heights of the strongest correlations between these channels and moisture in clear-sky regions are closely related to the peaks of their respective weighting functions.In cloudy regions,the strongest correlations appear at the cloud tops of deep clouds,and ice hydrometeors generally have stronger correlations with BT than liquid hydrometeors.The magnitudes of the correlations decrease from the peak value in a column with both vertical and horizontal distance.Just how the correlations decrease depend on both the cloud scenes and the cloud structures,as well as the model variables.Horizontal correlations between BTs and moisture,as well as hydrometeors,in fully cloudy regions decrease to almost 0 at about 30 km.The horizontal correlations with atmospheric state variables in clear-sky regions are broader,maintaining non-zero values out to~100 km.The results in this study provide information on the proper choice of cut-off radii in horizontal and vertical localization schemes for the assimilation of BTs.They also provide insights on the most efficient and effective use of the different water vapor channels.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41905096)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42030604, 41875051, and 41425018)。
文摘Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone(TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary satellite GOES-13 on the convection-permitting initialization and prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015) with an ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Given that almost all operational global and regional models struggled to capture Hurricane Joaquin(2015)'s intensity, this study examines the potential in improving Joaquin's prediction when assimilating all-sky infrared radiances from GOES-13's water vapor channel. It is demonstrated that, after a few 3-hour cycles assimilating all-sky radiance, the WRF model was able to forecast reasonably well Joaquin's intensity,including its rapid intensification(RI). The improvement was largely due to a more realistic initial hurricane structure with a stronger, warmer, and more compact inner-core. Ensemble forecasts were used to further explore the important physical mechanisms driving the hurricane's RI. Results showed that the RI forecasts were greatly impacted by the initial inner-core vortex structure.
基金L.Cheng acknowledges financial supports from the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant munber XDB42040402]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42122046 and 42076202]The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
基金supported by the China Scholarship Councilprimarily sponsored by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2018YFC1506702 and Grant No.2017YFC1502000)。
文摘The existence of outliers can seriously influence the analysis of variational data assimilation.Quality control allows us to effectively eliminate or absorb these outliers to produce better analysis fields.In particular,variational quality control(VarQC) can process gray zone outliers and is thus broadly used in variational data assimilation systems.In this study,governing equations are derived for two VarQC algorithms that utilize different contaminated Gaussian distributions(CGDs): Gaussian plus flat distribution and Huber norm distribution.As such,these VarQC algorithms can handle outliers that have non-Gaussian innovations.Then,these VarQC algorithms are implemented in the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System(GRAPES) model-level three-dimensional variational data assimilation(m3 DVAR) system.Tests using artificial observations indicate that the VarQC method using the Huber distribution has stronger robustness for including outliers to improve posterior analysis than the VarQC method using the Gaussian plus flat distribution.Furthermore,real observation experiments show that the distribution of observation analysis weights conform well with theory,indicating that the application of VarQC is effective in the GRAPES m3 DVAR system.Subsequent case study and longperiod data assimilation experiments show that the spatial distribution and amplitude of the observation analysis weights are related to the analysis increments of the mass field(geopotential height and temperature).Compared to the control experiment,VarQC experiments have noticeably better posterior mass fields.Finally,the VarQC method using the Huber distribution is superior to the VarQC method using the Gaussian plus flat distribution,especially at the middle and lower levels.
文摘In recent years, there has been increasing demand for high-resolution seasonal climate forecasts at sufficient lead times to allow response planning from users in agriculture, hydrology, disaster risk management, and health, among others. This paper examines the forecasting skill of the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) over Ethiopia during the June to September (JJAS) season. The NMME, one of the multi-model seasonal forecasting systems, regularly generates monthly seasonal rainfall forecasts over the globe with 0.5 <span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> 11.5 months lead time. The skill and predictability of seasonal rainfall are assessed using 28 years of hindcast data from the NMME models. The forecast skill is quantified using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and root mean square error. The results show that the NMME models capture the JJAS seasonal rainfall over central, northern, and northeastern parts of Ethiopia while exhibiting weak or limited skill across western and southwestern Ethiopia. The performance of each model in predicting the JJAS seasonal rainfall is variable, showing greater skill in predicting dry conditions. Overall, the performance of the multi-model ensemble was not consistently better than any single ensemble member. The correlation of observed and predicted </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">seasonal rainfall for the better performing models</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">—GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> CMC2-CanCM4, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01 and NASA-GMAO-062012</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">—</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is 0.68, 0.58, 0.52, and 0.5, respectively. The COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, CMC1-</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">CanCM3 and NCEP-CFSv2 models exhibit less skill, with correlations less than 0.4. In general, the NMME offers promising skill to predict seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia during the June-September (JJAS) season, motivating further work to assess its performance at longer lead times.</span>
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41425018)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC1501601)+3 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41675045)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC1501904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41875066, 41675108 & 41875051)the Special Program on the Monitoring, Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disasters (Grant No. 2018YFC1506702)
文摘Synoptic meteorology is a branch of meteorology that uses synoptic weather observations and charts for the diagnosis,study,and forecasting of weather.Weather refers to the specific state of the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface during a short period of time.The spatial distribution of meteorological elements in the atmosphere can be represented by a variety of transient weather phenomena,which are caused by weather systems of different spatial and temporal scales.Weather is closely related to people’s life,and its development and evolution have always been the focus of atmospheric scientific research and operation.The development of synoptic meteorology is closely related to the development of observation systems,dynamical theories and numerical models.In China,observation networks have been built since the early 1950 s.Up to now,a comprehensive meteorological observation systembased on ground,air and space has been established.In particular,the development of a new generation of dense radar networks,the development of the Fengyun satellite series and the implementation of a series of large field experiments have brought our understanding of weather from large-scale environment to thermal dynamics,cloud microphysical structure and evolution characteristics of meso and micro-scale weather systems.The development of observation has also promoted the development of theory,numerical model and simulation.In the early days,China mainly used foreign numerical models.Lately,China has developed numerical model systems with independent intellectual property rights.Based on the results of high-resolution numerical simulations,in-depth understanding of the initiation and evolution mechanism and predictability of weather at different scales has been obtained.Synoptic meteorology has gradually changed from an initially independent development to a multidisciplinary approach,and the interaction between weather and the change of climate and environment has become a hot and frontier topic in atmospheric science.This paper reviews the important scientific and technological achievements made in China over the past 70 years in the fields of synoptic meteorology based on the literatures in China and abroad,from six aspects respectively including atmospheric dynamics,synoptic-scale weather,typhoon and tropical weather,severe convective weather,numerical weather prediction and data assimilation,weather and climate,atmospheric physics and atmospheric environment.
基金supported by the Research Grants Council(RGC)of Hong Kong,General Research Fund(CityU11332816)supported by the Chief of Naval Research through the NRL Base Program PE 0601153N and the Office of Naval Research PE 0601153NComputational resources for Doyle’s and Komaromi’s research were supported by a grant of High Performance Computing time from the Department of Defense Major Shared Resource Centers,Stennis Space Center,MS.
文摘Although tropical cyclone track forecast errors have substantially decreased in recent decades,there are still cases each season with large uncertainties in the forecasts and/or very large track errors.As such cases are challenging for forecasters,it is important to understand the mechanisms behind the low predictability.For this purpose the research community has developed a number of tools.These tools include ensemble and adjoint sensitivity models,ensemble perturbation experiments and nudging experiments.In this report we discuss definitions of difficult cases for tropical cyclone track forecasts,diagnostic techniques to understand sources of errors,lessons learnt in recent years and recommendations for future work.
基金supported by the U.S. DOE ASR (Atmospheric Systems Research) program (Grant No. DE-SC0013953)
文摘To better understand how model resolution affects the formation of Arctic boundary layer clouds,we investigated the influence of grid spacing on simulating cloud streets that occurred near Utqiaġvik(formerly Barrow),Alaska,on 2 May 2013 and were observed by MODIS(the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer).The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the clouds using nested domains with increasingly fine resolution ranging from a horizontal grid spacing of 27 km in the boundary-layer-parameterized mesoscale domain to a grid spacing of 0.111 km in the large-eddy-permitting domain.We investigated the model-simulated mesoscale environment,horizontal and vertical cloud structures,boundary layer stability,and cloud properties,all of which were subsequently used to interpret the observed roll-cloud case.Increasing model resolution led to a transition from a more buoyant boundary layer to a more shear-driven turbulent boundary layer.The clouds were stratiform-like in the mesoscale domain,but as the model resolution increased,roll-like structures,aligned along the wind field,appeared with ever smaller wavelengths.A stronger vertical water vapor gradient occurred above the cloud layers with decreasing grid spacing.With fixed model grid spacing at 0.333 km,changing the model configuration from a boundary layer parameterization to a large-eddy-permitting scheme produced a more shear-driven and less unstable environment,a stronger vertical water vapor gradient below the cloud layers,and the wavelengths of the rolls decreased slightly.In this study,only the large-eddy-permitting simulation with gird spacing of 0.111 km was sufficient to model the observed roll clouds.
基金supported by the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201306011)the Research on Key Prediction Technology of Warm Sector Rainstorm(Grant No.YBGJXM(2017)1A-01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41475041)
文摘Based on daily precipitation data of more than 2000 Chinese stations and more than 50 yr, we constructed time series of extreme precipitation based on six different indices for each station: annual and summer maximum(top-1) precipitation,accumulated amount of 10 precipitation maxima(annual, summer; top-10), and total annual and summer precipitation.Furthermore, we constructed the time series of the total number of stations based on the total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 annual extreme precipitation for the whole data period, the whole country, and six subregions, respectively. Analysis of these time series indicate three regions with distinct trends of extreme precipitation:(1) a positive trend region in Southeast China,(2) a positive trend region in Northwest China, and(3) a negative trend region in North China. Increasing(decreasing)ratios of 10–30% or even >30% were observed in these three regions. The national total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation extremes increased respectively by 2.4 and 15 stations per decade on average but with great inter-annual variations.There have been three periods with highly frequent precipitation extremes since 1960:(1) early 1960 s,(2) middle and late 1990 s,and(3) early 21 st century. There are significant regional differences in trends of regional total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation. The most significant increase was observed over Northwest China. During the same period, there are significant changes in the atmospheric variables that favor the decrease of extreme precipitation over North China: an increase in the geopotential height over North China and its upstream regions, a decrease in the low-level meridional wind from South China coast to North China, and the corresponding low moisture content in North China. The extreme precipitation values with a50-year empirical return period are 400–600 mm at the South China coastal regions and gradually decrease to less than 50 mm in Northwest China. The mean increase rate in comparison with 20-year empirical return levels is 6.8%. The historical maximum precipitation is more than twice the 50-year return levels.
基金supported by the Huadong Regional Meteorological Science and Technology Innovation Fund Collaborative Project (Grant No. QYHZ201404)the Development of Social Welfare Project of Zhejiang Province (Grant No. 2013C33037)+2 种基金the Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (Grant No. LY18D050001)United States Office of Naval Research Project (Grant No. N000140910526)the Development of Social Welfare Key Project of Zhejiang Province (Grant No. 2017C03035)
文摘The characteristics and dynamics associated with the distribution, intensity, and triggering factors of local severe precipitation in Zhejiang Province induced by Super Typhoon Soudelor(2015) were investigated using mesoscale surface observations, radar reflectivity, satellite nephograms, and the final(FNL) analyses of the Global Forecasting System(GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP). The rainfall processes during Soudelor's landfall and translation over East China could be separated into four stages based on rainfall characteristics such as distribution, intensity, and corresponding dynamics. The relatively less precipitation in the first stage resulted from interaction between the easterly wind to the north flank of this tropical cyclone(TC) and the coastal topography along the southeast of Zhejiang Province, China. With landfall of the TC in East China during the second stage, precipitation maxima occurred because of interaction between the TC's principal rainbands and the local topography from northeastern Fujian Province to southwestern Zhejiang Province. The distribution of precipitation presented significant asymmetric features in the third stage with maximal rainfall bands in the northeast quadrant of the TC when Soudelor's track turned from westward to northward as the TC decayed rapidly. Finally, during the northward to northeastward translation of the TC in the fourth stage, the interaction between a mid-latitude weather system and the northern part of the TC resulted in transfer of the maximum rainfall from the north of Zhejiang Province to the north of Jiangsu Province,which represented the end of rainfall in Zhejiang Province. Further quantitative calculations of the rainfall rate induced by the interaction between local topography and TC circulation(defined as "orographic effects") in the context of a one-dimensional simplified model showed that orographic effects were the primary factor determining the intensity of precipitation in this case,and accounted for over 50% of the total precipitation. The asymmetric distribution of the TC's rainbands was closely related to the asymmetric distribution of moisture resulted from changes of the TC's structure, and led to asymmetric distribution of local intense precipitation induced by Soudelor. Based on analysis of this TC, it could be concluded that local severe rainfall in the coastal regions of East China is closely related to changes of TC structure and intensity, as well as the outer rainbands. In addition, precipitation intensity and duration will increase correspondingly because of the complex interactions between the TC and local topography, and the particular TC track along large-scale steering flow. The results of this study may be useful for the understanding, prediction, and warning of disasters induced by local extreme rainfall caused by TCs, especially for facilitating forecasting and warning of flooding and mudslides associated with torrential rain caused by interactions between landfalling TCs and coastal topography.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030604,41875051)the National Science Foundation(Grant No.AGS-1712290)+3 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M702725)sponsored by the MEL Outstanding Postdoctoral Scholarship from Xiamen Universitysupported by the East China Regional Meteorological Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Fund(Grant No.QYHZ201801)the project from the Qingdao Meteorological Bureau(Grant No.2021qdqxz01)。
文摘This study explores the controlling factors of the uncertainties and error growth at different spatial and temporal scales in forecasting the high-impact extremely heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan Province China on 19−20 July 2021 with a record-breaking hourly rainfall exceeding 200 mm and a 24-h rainfall exceeding 600 mm.Results show that the strengths of the mid-level low-pressure system,the upper-level divergence,and the low-level jet determine both the amount of the extreme 24-h accumulated and hourly rainfall at 0800 UTC.The forecast uncertainties of the accumulated rainfall are insensitive to the magnitude and the spatial structure of the tiny,unobservable errors in the initial conditions of the ensemble forecasts generated with Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS)or sub-grid-scale perturbations,suggesting that the predictability of this event is intrinsically limited.The dominance of upscale rather than upamplitude error growth is demonstrated under the regime of k^(−5/3) power spectra by revealing the inability of large-scale errors to grow until the amplitude of small-scale errors has increased to an adequate amplitude,and an apparent transfer of the fastest growing scale from smaller to larger scales with a slower growth rate at larger scales.Moist convective activities play a critical role in enhancing the overall error growth rate with a larger error growth rate at smaller scales.In addition,initial perturbations with different structures have different error growth features at larger scales in different variables in a regime transitioning from the k^(−5/3) to k^(−3) power law.Error growth with conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)tends to be more upamplitude relative to the GEFS or sub-grid-scale perturbations possibly owing to the inherited error growth feature of CNOP,the inability of convective parameterization scheme to rebuild the k^(−5/3) power spectra at the mesoscales,and different error growth characteristics in the k^(−5/3) and k^(−3) regimes.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20060401)the China Scholarship Council+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(91537210)the Swedish STINT(CH2015-6226)the Swedish VR(2017-03780).