The Seismicity and Seismological Work of Myanmar

In this report, the set up, responsibility and objectives of the seismological division of Myanmar are briefly presented. A general description of the seismotectonics and seismicity in Myanmar is given. The activities of the seismological division in monitoring earthquakes and in international cooperation are also described.

Climatic variations of general atmospheric circulation,precipitation and river flow of the territory of Kazakhstan

Methods of calculating the basic hydrological characteristics of a water resource assessment, as well as the planning and manage- ment of their long-term use are based upon the concept of stationarity of long-term flow fluctuations. However, data of researches by hydrologists and climatologists clearly indicate that there are long-period changes in the characteristics of precipitation and riv- er flow. This article discusses the variations of annual precipitation and fiver flow in the Ishim River Basin in Kazakhstan, based on the W, C and E classification developed by GY. Vangengeim who analyzed the long-term variability of anomalies by the num- ber of days with some form of atmospheric circulation. From this study, the largest anomaly of the macro-circulation processes was revealed, and a comparative analysis of the number of days with various forms of atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies was made. It was demonstrated that the nature of atmospheric circulation depends on the distribution of precipitation; however, precipitation is also highly dependent on local physiographic conditions. The analysis of anomalous precipitation during the maximum number of days of positive anomalies with various forms of atmospheric circulation was also carried out. This study presents some results t^om the preliminary analysis of annual river flow linked with forms of atmospheric circulation.

Crustal thickness,V_(P)/V_(S) ratio,and shear wave velocity structures beneath Myanmar and their tectonic implications

The crustal structure in Myanmar can provide valuable information for the eastern margin of the ongoing IndoEurasian collision system.We successively performed H-k stacking of the receiver function and joint inversion of the receiver function and surface wave dispersion to invert the crustal thickness(H),shear wave velocity(V_(S)),and the V_(P)/V_(S) ratio(k)beneath nine permanent seismic stations in Myanmar.H was found to increase from 26 km in the south and east of the study area to 51 km in the north and west,and the V_(P)/V_(S) ratio was complex and high.Striking differences in the crust were observed for different tectonic areas.In the Indo-Burma Range,the thick crust(H~51 km)and lower velocities may be related to the accretionary wedge from the Indian Plate.In the Central Myanmar Basin,the thin crust(H=26.9-35.5 km)and complex V_(P)/V_(S) ratio and V_(S) suggest extensional tectonics.In the Eastern Shan Plateau,the relatively thick crust and normal V_(P)/V_(S) ratio are consistent with its location along the western edge of the rigid Sunda Block.

基于潮汐附加构造应力的2013年灯塔MS5.1地震射出长波辐射变化分析

针对2013年1月23日辽宁灯塔MS5.1地震,利用引潮力附加构造应力(Additional Tectonic Stress Caused By Tidal Force, ATSCTF)计算模型,计算得到震中位置(41.5°N, 123.2°E)在地震前5周以及震后3周(2012年12月16日—2013年2月15日)的ATSCTF变化。地震发生时,ATSCTF垂直方向分量处于高相位点附近,显示引潮力对本次正断层走滑型地震具有诱发作用。以ATSCTF变化周期的各低相位点时间(2012年12月19日、 2013年1月4日、 2013年1月18日、 2013年2月2日)数据分别为背景,各周期期后数据分别与背景逐日相减,计算研究区(36°N~46°N, 118°E~128°E)范围内,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)卫星射出长波辐射数据(Outgoing Long Wave Radiation, OLR)在各ATSCTF周期时段分布及其变化。结果显示,无震的ATSCTF变化的A、 B、 D周期,震中附近OLR无变化;发震的ATSCTF变化的C周期,在空间上,该地区震前OLR仅震中及其南侧区域发生了显著连续升高变化过程,在时间上经历了初始微异常→异常加强→高峰→衰减→发震→平静的演化过程,与岩石应力加载—破裂经历:初始微动破裂→扩张破裂→应力闭锁→地震爆发→平静的力学演化过程中各阶段红外辐射特征一致;显示引潮力对处于临界状态的活动断层具有诱发作用,而OLR是地震构造应力应变过程辐射表征。

Climatic water balance dynamics over the last five decades in Romania＇s most arid region, Dobrogea

The analysis of a territory＇s climatic water balance dynamics against the background of climate change is a key component for increasing water resource management efficiency. The present study aims to analyse climatic water balance （CWB） dynamics in Romania＇s most arid region, Dobrogea, located in the southeast. The study covers the 1961-2009 period, and is based on annual and seasonal CWB values （mm）, provided by nine weather stations located throughout the region. The study, based on statistical and GIS techniques, is divided into two main stages, both carried out at annual and seasonal scales - trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test, the Sen＇s slope method, and CWB value distribution type analysis. In order to identify the probabilistic types of distributions four mathematical models were identified-Pearson, Gamma, Chi-Squared and Wakeby, statistically verified with the P-P Plot, Q-Q Plot and Probabillity Difference Graph （PDG） curve tests. Thus, in terms of trends, the results showed a deficit increase especially at the northern stations, mainly for annual values （with a peak in the northeast, where CWB rates reached -3.2 mm/yr）. While general CWB declines occurred in winter, spring and summer, apparent decrease rates were found in the northern region （highest negative rates-summer, northwest, -1.4 mm/yr）. Autumn is an exception, due to overall increase rates which peaked in the southwest （2.3 mm/yr）. However, the entire trend analysis indicated a general lack of statistical significance. The distribution type histogram analysis showed that, annually and seasonally, deficit values are generally dominant （more noticeable in the northern region）, except for the winter season, mainly characterized by surplus intervals. Thus, the results suggest a climatic water deficit increase over the last five decades especially in northern Dobrogea, which signals the need for a spatial prioritization targeting a more efficient water resource management, necessary first and foremost for increasing regional agricultural system productivity.

OPERATIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST VERIFICATION PRACTICE IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC REGION

This paper summarizes results of a survey of the operational status of tropical cyclone(TC) forecast verifi-cation in the western North Pacific region, covering the Members of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center, and JTWC. Results of the survey indicate that significant efforts have been focused on the verification of TC forecast guidance by operational forecast agencies in the region, either individually or through international cooperation. A variety of TC forecast verification products are available to the forecasters in either real time or in post-season through multiple means, with the main focus on the deterministic track and intensity forecasts. Only a few verification products are available for probabilistic forecasts. Verification of TC precipitation and high wind forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention in the region. It would be helpful in the future to focus more attention toward these aspects and incorporate methods that will provide a greater depth of information regarding the TC forecast performance.