Geographical mapping and Bayesian spatial modeling of malaria incidence in Sistan and Baluchistan province,Iran

To present the geographical map of malaria and identify some of the important environmental factors of this disease in Sistan and Baluchistan province,Iran.Methods:We used the registered malaria data to compute the standard incidence rates(SIRs) of malaria in different areas of Sislan and Baluchistan province for a nine-sear period(from 2001 to 2009). Statistical analyses consisted of two different pails:geographical mapping of malaria incidence rates,and modeling the environmental(actors.The empirical Bayesian estimates of malaria SIRs were utilized for geographical mapping of malaria and a Poisson random effects model was used for assessing the effect of environmental factors on malaria SIRs.Results:In general.64 926 new cases of malaria were registered in Sistan and Baluchistan Province from 2001 to 2009. Among them.42 695 patients(65.8%) were male and 22 231 patients(34.2%) were female. Modeling the environmental factors showed that malaria incidence rales had positive relationship with humidity,elevation,average minimum temperature and average maximum temperature, while rainfall had negative effect on malaria SIRs in this province.Conclusions:The results of the present Study reveals that malaria is still a serious health problem in Sistan and Baluchistan province.Iran.Geographical map and related environmental factors of malaria can help the health poliey makers to intervene in high risk areas more efficiently and allocate the resources in a proper manner.