Track Patterns of Landfalling and Coastal Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, Their Relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Potential Effect of Global Warming

Even though the degree of damage inflicted by North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is highly dependent upon track location and proximity to land, the spatial characteristics of TCs are generally understudied. We investigated the spatial relationships between landfall locations and track patterns of all Cape Verde-type landfalling and coastal TCs that have affected the continental coastline of the western Atlantic Basin by region for the period 1851-2008. The degree of recurvature for these TCs increases progressively from the Central America/Caribbean coast (CA) through the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), Florida peninsula (FLOR), and Atlantic (ATL) coasts. The date (month) of occurrence shows similar increases from the GOM through ATL. These patterns for landfall location, track pattern, and occurrence date generally follow the intra-seasonal movement and intensity variations of the Bermuda High (BH), as represented by increasing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values from CA through FLOR. Analysis suggests that the region of landfall is primarily controlled by two factors: the amplitude of track recurvature and the longitude at which recurvature begins to dominate track shape. Both of these important steering controls are predominantly influenced by the strength and position of the BH, with increasing strength and/or more northeasterly position of the BH progressively driving landfall from Central America through the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic seaboard out to the open sea. The paleorecord suggests that the latitudinal position of the BH exerts an important control over the location of hurricane landfall along the western North Atlantic on millennial time scales. This suggests that global warming may result in a northern shift in TC tracks and increased frequency of landfalls in northern locations.

Statistical Downscaling of IPCC Sea Surface Wind and Wind Energy Predictions for U.S. East Coastal Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico(GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset(predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis(predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center(NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992–1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output(2.0?×2.5?) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25?×0.25? resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO_2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

Climate Projections of Spatial Variations in Coastal Storm Surges Along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S.East Coast

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system(ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7–10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry(PI) and the other for the A1 FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.

The spatial distribution of major and trace elements of surface sediments in the northeastern Beibu Gulf of the South China Sea

A multi-index analysis including grain size, major and trace elements is performed on the surface sediments from the northeastern Beibu Gulf to trace the sources of the sediments and to understand the controlling factors for elements distribution. The mean grain size exhibits a wide variation ranging from 0.09Φ to 8.05Φ with an average value of 5.33Φ. The average contents of major elements descend in an order of c(SiO_2)>c(Al_2O_3)>c(Fe_2O_3)>c(CaO)>c(MgO)>c(K_2O)>c(Na_2O)>c(TiO_2)>c(P_2O_5)>c(MnO), while those of trace elements exhibit a descending order of c(Sr)>c(Rb)>c(V)>c(Zn)>c(Cr)>c(Pb)>c(Ni)>c(Cu)>c(As). On the basis of elementary distribution characteristics and statistical analyses, the study area is divided into the four zones: Zone I is located in the northeastern coastal area of the gulf, which receives large amount of fluvial materials from local rivers in Guangxi and Guangdong, China, and the Qiongzhou Strait; Zone Ⅱ is located in the center of the study area, where surface sediments exhibits a multiple source; Zone Ⅲ is located in the Qiongzhou Strait, where surface sediments are dominated by materials from the Zhujiang River and Hainan; Zone IV is located in the southwest of the study area, where surface sediments are mainly originated from the Red River and Hainan. The statistical analyses of sediment geochemical characteristics reveal that the grain size, which is mainly influenced by hydrodynamics and mineral composition of terrigenous materials, is the leading factor controlling the elementary distribution.Meanwhile, impacts from anthropogenic activities and marine biogenic process will also be taken into consideration.

Quantifying cold front induced water transport of a bay with in situ observations using manned and unmanned boats

The generation of high-resolution data is increasingly important in understanding the complexities of coastal ocean and developing sound management strategies, especially in view of the long-term impact of severe weather systems. The impact of severe weather systems, when integrated over time, can be significant when compared with tidal oscillations. This paper presents a study of water transport out of Vermilion Bay in response to a short, intense event associated with a passing atmospheric cold front, and reports the application of an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler （ADCP） mounted on an Automated Surface Craft （ASC）, known as the auto-boat or unmanned boat, developed in our lab at the Louisiana State University, to generate high resolution data accurately at a fraction of the cost of a manned boat. In our study, we used a manned boat and an unmanned boat, each for over 24 h to cover an entire diurnal tidal cycle, to measure flow velocity profiles to calculate the total transport. A stationary ADCP was deployed in the Southwest Pass of the Vermilion Bay from May 2009 to April 2012, providing data almost continuously （with only one major gap）, with a 717-day record of water transport between the northern Gulf of Mexico and Vermilion Bay, and demonstrates the importance of the pass in water transport.

Effects of hurricane forward speed and approach angle on storm surges: an idealized numerical experiment

The effects of hurricane forward speed(V)and approach angle(θ)on storm surge are important and a systematic investigation covering possible and continuous ranges of these parameters has not been done before.Here we present such a study with a numerical experiment using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model(FVCOM).The hurricane track is simplified as a straight line,such that V andθfully define the motion of the hurricane.The maximum surge is contributed by both free waves and a forced storm surge wave moving with the hurricane.Among the free waves,Kelvin-type waves can only propagate in the down-coast direction.Simulations show that those waves can only have a significant positive storm surge when the hurricane velocity has a down-coast component.The optimal values of V andθthat maximize the storm surge in an idealized semi-circular ocean basin are functions of the bathymetry.For a constant bathymetry,the maximum surge occurs when the hurricane approaches the coast from the normal direction when the free wave generation is minimal;for a stepped bathymetry,the maximum surge occurs at a certain acute approach angle which maximizes the duration of persistent wind forcing;a step-like bathymetry with a sloped shelf is similar to the stepped bathymetry,with the added possibility of landfall resonance when the free and forced waves are moving at about the same velocity.For other cases,the storm surge is smaller,given other parameters(hurricane size,maximum wind speed,etc.)unchanged.

Evaluation of Spatial-Temporal Variations of Water Quality and Plankton Assemblages and Its Relationship to Water Use in Kulekhani Multipurpose Reservoir, Nepal

Spatial and temporal variation in planktons and water quality parameters were investigated in order to determine the effects of seasonal water use on reservoir water quality and planktons’ diversity in Kulekhani Multipurpose Reservoir, Nepal. This study also focuses on interactions among various water quality parameters with planktons and how such interactions can affect the second major utility, the fish farming in the reservoir. The analyses of seasonal water samples collected from three different sampling locations in the reservoir showed that select water quality parameters varied significantly (P < 0.05) with sampling seasons (transparency: 30 - 250 cm, pH: 7 - 7.5, alkalinity: 30 - 120 mg/L, DO: 6 - 11.5 mg/L, CO2: 0.1 - 1.1 mg/L) and sampling locations (phosphate: 0.1 - 0.25 mg/L, nitrate 0.01 - 0.19 mg/L) in the reservoir. Three groups of zooplankton and four classes of phytoplankton, respectively with eleven and twelve genera, were identified and quantified in the reservoir. Among them, Cyclops, Asplanchana, and Keratella were most dominant zooplanktons while Synedra, Melosira and Peridinum were the most dominant phytoplankton in the reservoir water. The abundance of select zooplanktons (Cyclops, Keratella, Polyanthra), and phytoplankton (Navicula, Melosira, Amphora, Chroococcus, Staurastrum, Scendesmus) showed significant interaction between sampling sites and sampling seasons, while the other varied only with sampling seasons and/or sites. These results showed that seasonal water level fluctuations, along with the variation of water quality parameters, change the abundance and diversity of planktons’ in the reservoir. Such changes can negatively impact the fish in cage culture, affecting the livelihood of people extensively relying on these fish farming.

Oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and spiral vortex

Drilling rig Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico, leased by BP PLC from Transocean Ltd., exploded and caught on fire on April 20, 2010. The drilling location is at some 50 miles （80 kilometers） off the coast of Louisiana, USA. The rig sank on April 22. Since then, oil has been pouring into the Gulf from the blown-out undersea well.

Distribution Patterns of Major and Trace Elements and Provenance of Surface Sediments on the Continental Shelf off Western Guangdong Province and Northeastern Hainan Island

A coupled approach based on grain size and geochemical elements is used to trace the provenance of surface sediments and to confirm the distribution patterns of grain size and elements on the continental shelf off western Guangdong Province and northeastern Hainan Island. The mean grain size ranges from 0.05 φ to 7.28 φ with a mean value of 5.60 φ. The average concentra- tions of major elements descend in the order of SiO2 > Al2O3 > CaO > Fe2O3 > K2O > MgO > Na2O > TiO2 > P2O5 > MnO, while those of trace elements exhibit a descending order of Sr > Rb > Zn > V > Cr > Pb > Ni > Cu > As > Cd. On the basis of the distribution patterns of elements and results of statistical analysis, the study area is classified into three zones. Zone I locates on the continental shelf off western Guangdong Province, and the sediments are mainly from Pearl River, Taiwan Residents rivers, and small rivers nearby. Zone II locates in the eastern exit of Qiongzhou Strait and the coastal area off Leizhou Peninsula, and the sediments are mainly from the ero- sion products of Qiongzhou Strait and Hainan Island. Zone III locates off the eastern Hainan Island and the continental shelf deeper than 50 m isobaths, and the sediments are mainly from Hainan Island and coral reef. The influence from open water should also be considered. Results indicate that the grain size is the main controlling factor for major and trace element contents and that anthropo- genic impact and biological activity also play an important role in the distribution of these elements.

Three-dimensional structure of a low salinity tongue in the southern Taiwan Strait observed in the summer of 2005

Cruise observations with CTD （conductivity-temperature-depth） profiler were carried out in the southern Taiwan Strait in the summer of 2005. Using the cruise data, two-dimensional maps of salinity and temperature distributions at depths of 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 m were generated. The maps show a low salinity tongue sandwiched by low temperature and high salinity waters on the shallow water side and high temperature and high salinity waters on the deep water side. The further analysis indicates that the low salinity water has a nature of river-diluted water. A possible source of the diluted water is the Zhujiang （Pearl） Estuary. Meanwhile, the summer monsoon is judged as a possible driving force for this northeastward jet-like current. The coastal upwelling and the South China Sea Warm Current confine the low salinity water to flow along the central line of the strait. Previous investigations and a numerical model are used to verify that the upstream of the low salinity current is the Zhujiang Estuary. Thus, the low salinity tongue is produced by four major elements： Zhujinag Estuary diluted water, monsoon wind driving, coastal upwelling and South China Sea Warm Current modifications.

Effect of stratification on current hydrodynamics over Louisiana shelf during Hurricane Katrina

Numerical experiments were conducted using the finite volume community ocean model(FVCOM) to study the impact of the initial density stratification on simulated currents over the Louisiana shelf during Hurricane Katrina. Model results for two simulation scenarios, including an initially stratified shelf and an initially non-stratified shelf, were examined. Comparison of two simulations for two-dimensional(2D) currents,the time series of current speed, and variations of cross-shore currents across different sections showed that the smallest differences between simulated currents for these two scenarios occurred over highly mixed regions within 1 radius of maximum wind(RMW) under the hurricane.For areas farther from the mixed zone, differences increased, reaching the maximum values off Terrebonne Bay. These large discrepancies correspond to significant differences between calculated vertical eddy viscosities for the two scenarios. The differences were addressed based on the contradictory behavior of turbulence in a stratified fluid, as compared to a non-stratified fluid. Incorporation of this behavior in the MellorYamada turbulent closure model established a Richardson number-based stability function that was used for estimation of the vertical eddy viscosity from the turbulent energy and macroscale. The results of this study demonstrate the necessity for inclusion of shelf stratification when circulation modeling is conducted using three-dimensional(3D) baroclinic models. To achieve high-accuracy currents, the parameters associated with the turbulence closures should be calibrated with field measurements of currents at different depths.

Anti-Phase Relationship Between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Summer Monsoon During the Holocene?

The relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) during the Holocene is complicated and remains controversial.In this study,analysis of grain size and benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope,as well as accelerator mass spectrometry ^(14)C dating was performed on a sediment core retrieved from the newly revealed muddy deposit on the northern South China Sea continental shelf.The history of the EAWM and EASM were reconstructed for the last 8200 a BP.Further analysis in conjunction with previously published paleo-climate proxies revealed that the relationship between the EAWM and EASM during the Holocene is more complex than a simple and strict anti-phase one-both negative and positive correlations were identified.The EAWM and EASM are negatively correlated around 7500,4800,4200,3200,and 300 a BP(cooling periods),while positively correlated around 7100,3700,and 2100 a BP(warm periods).In particular,both the EAWM and EASM intensified during the three positive correlation periods.However,we also found that the relationship between these two sub-monsoons is anti-phase during the final phase of particularly hot periods like Holocene Optimum and Medieval warm period.The possible impact from variations of solar irradiance on the relationship between the EAWM and EASM was also discussed.

Weather induced subtidal flows through multiple inlets of an arctic microtidal lagoon

Estuarine processes in the arctic lagoons are among the least studied but important subjects, especially considering the rapid warming of arctic water which may change the length of ice-free period in the summer. In this paper, wind-driven exchange flows in the micro-tidal Elson Lagoon of northern Alaska with multiple inlets of contrasting widths and depths are studied with in situ observations, statistical analysis, numerical experiments, a regression model on the basis of dynamics, and remote sensing data. Water velocity profiles were obtained from a bottom deployed acoustic Doppler current profiler(ADCP) in the northwestern Eluitkak Pass connecting the Beaufort Sea to the Elson Lagoon during a 4.9 day ice-free period in the summer of 2013. The subtidal flow is found correlated with wind(R^2 value ～96%). Frequently occurring east, northeast and north winds from the arctic atmospheric high-and low-pressure systems push water from the Beaufort Sea into the lagoon through the wide inlets on the eastern side of the lagoon, resulting in an outward flow against the wind at the narrow northwestern inlet. The counter-wind flow is a result of an uneven wind forcing acting through the asymmetric inlets and depth,an effect of "torque" or vorticity. Under northwest wind, the exchange flow at the northwestern inlet reverses its direction, with inward flows through the upwind northwestern inlet and outward flows through the downwind eastern inlets. A regression model is established based on the momentum equations and Taylor series expansions. The model is used to predict flows in July and August of 2015 and July of 2017, supported by available Landsat satellite images. About 73%–80% of the time the flows at Eluitkak Pass are out of Elson Lagoon for the summer of 2015 and 2017. Numerical experiments are conducted to corroborate the findings and illustrate the effects under various wind conditions. A quasi-steady state balance between wind force and surface pressure gradient is confirmed.

Marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Mexico 1983‒2021: Statistics, recent intensifications, and threats on coral reefs

There is the current lack of comprehensive understanding of the hotspots,frequency,duration,spatiotemporal trends,and physical drivers of marine heatwaves(MHWs)within the Gulf of Mexico(GoM).Here,a series of high-resolution satellite and reanalysis products are used to examine their spatiotemporal characteristics,trends,and possible geophysical triggers of MHWs.Possible impacts of the MHW on coral reefs are also discussed.Results reveal an increasing trend in their frequency,duration,and intensities from 1983–2021,particularly after 2016.It identifies MHWs hotspots within the GoM,notably the northern and western shelves and the Loop Current.The study further documents an intense MHW event from late 2020 to early 2021 near the Yucatan Channel,south of 24°N,attributing its development to oceanic processes such as wind anomalies,anticyclonic eddies,and current-driven heat transport anomalies.The occurrence of this MHW event potentially increased thermal stress on the Campeche and Tuxtlas Reef Systems.This research illuminates the increasing trends and impacts of MHWs in the GoM,providing valuable insights for understanding and predicting the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems.

黄河三角洲石油污染对湿地芦苇和碱蓬幼苗生长影响的模拟研究

黄河三角洲湿地是中国最具代表性的滨海湿地之一,也是中国第二大油田——胜利油田的产油区,石油污染已成为本区湿地生态系统退化的重要因子。在温室条件下模拟研究了该区滨海湿地土壤中2种不同浓度(0.5%、2.0%)石油污染对黄河三角洲地区典型物种芦苇(Phragmites australis)和盐地碱蓬(Suaeda salsa)幼苗生长的影响。结果表明,随着石油浓度的增高,芦苇和盐地碱蓬株高的受抑制程度不断增强,随着时间的推移,石油污染对芦苇分蘖的抑制作用减弱,而对盐地碱蓬幼苗的分枝数抑制作用加大。随石油浓度的增加,盐地碱蓬幼苗叶片中可溶性蛋白质含量先升高后降低,丙二醛含量和过氧化物酶活力先降低后升高,过氧化氢酶活力显著降低;芦苇幼苗则对石油污染表现出相对较强的耐受性。不同石油污染条件下芦苇幼苗叶片叶绿素含量表现出先下降后升高的变化趋势。从整体上来看,石油烃类污染对盐地碱蓬幼苗的抑制作用要高于芦苇幼苗,也说明在处理石油烃类污染物中芦苇比碱蓬更具有优势。

利用^(14)C标记技术测定海洋初级生产力的绉议

海洋初级生产力是指海洋中初级生产者（主要是浮游植物）通过光合作用或化学合成生产有机物的能力或速率，它是海洋生态系统中其他异养生物的生存基础，并从根本上影响着全球生物地球化学循环与气候变化。

古风暴学研究进展

古风暴学是始于20世纪90年代的一门新兴学科,通过研究风暴活动的地质记录和历史文献资料,恢复器测之前几百年至数千年前的热带气旋活动规律。经过十几年的发展,逐渐形成一套包括研究领域、方法、技术与手段等比较完整的理论体系,成为第四纪古气候研究和过去全球变化的重要组成部分。古风暴学研究的替代指标包括:文字记载、特征的风暴事件沉积、海相化石组合、同位素地球化学组成等。这些指标单独使用时都有一定局限性。寻找新的替代指标,并运用多种指标综合分析方法提高古风暴事件的分辨率和可信度,是今后该学科发展的重要方向。已有的研究多侧重于古风暴频数的研究,今后应充分利用现代风暴潮理论的新进展,通过数值模拟与替代指标研究相结合,更准确地恢复古风暴强度。同时,应加强古风暴活动的全球对比研究,以揭示风暴活动与全球气候变化的关系,为在全球不断变暖背景下台风活动的情景预测提供依据。

基于多项式回归模型的飓风的空间效应和泥沙沉积关系的探索

为利用多项式回归分析来探讨飓风的空间效应与泥沙沉积作用的关系,并对模型进行筛选及评价,为预测飓风的严重程度提供科学依据。泥沙沉积的数据收集于美国路易斯安那州发生卡崔娜、利塔和古斯塔夫飓风后,定义数据资料中风暴中心到取样地点地图上的距离为风暴路径(Track,km),将取样点到海岸线的垂直距离定义为海岸线距离(Coast,km)。反应变量为泥沙沉积的深度(Depth,cm)。结果显示,泥沙沉积的深度与Track以及Coast有显著的回归关系(P<0.001),泥沙沉积位置到海岸线距离(Coast)对泥沙沉积深度有明显的衰减的效应。可见多项式回归对于飓风的空间效应引发的泥沙沉积有较好的预测效果,为预测飓风强度提供一定的方法学参考。

东南沿海台风风暴潮增水过程中非线性机制和地形的作用研究:以1509号台风“灿鸿”为例

本文基于FVCOM(Finite Volume Community Ocean Model)构建了一个覆盖中国渤海、黄海和东海的数值模型,采用NCEP-CFSR风场数据对1509号台风“灿鸿”产生的风暴潮进行模拟,与实测水位数据的对比表明该模型可靠、模拟结果合理。基于此模型,本文对非线性作用和地形在风暴潮增水过程中的作用进行了研究。首先,重点分析了增水过程中潮汐与风暴潮的非线性作用,结果表明:高潮时非线性作用使增水值降低;低潮时非线性作用使增水值升高。另外,开边界处分别只添加M2、S2和K1分潮,分析天文潮的潮高和周期对非线性作用的影响,结果表明:潮高越高,非线性作用越明显;半日潮的非线性作用较全日潮更明显;并且,增水极值附近出现的半日周期的波动也与非线性作用有关。其次,除了非线性作用,地形对风暴潮的增水也有一定影响,本文改变地形的实验结果表明:坡度越大,增水极值越小。琉球群岛的存在使得东南沿海出现风暴潮增水的面积减小,但使得风暴潮增水的高值区域扩大。

长江水下三角洲沉积物磁性特征空间差异及其冲淤指示意义

三角洲冲淤具有空间异质性,而沉积物的磁性特征可灵敏地反映物源、沉积动力特征以及早期成岩作用影响,是揭示空间异质性的有效方法。选取长江水下三角洲20~35 m水深的四个约2 m长的柱样进行磁学和碳、硫地球化学分析,结合粒度及年代资料,探讨了长江水下三角洲沉积物柱样磁性特征空间差异及其冲淤指示意义。研究结果显示,粒度表征的动力分选影响沉积物的磁性特征,这在年代较新(<350 a)的柱样中表现尤为明显,即细颗粒沉积物中富集亚铁磁性矿物,从而具有较高的磁化率。铁、碳、硫及硫同位素特征揭示了长江水下三角洲沉积物较弱的硫酸盐还原特征。沉积物年龄及沉积速率影响沉积物成岩改造强度,进而导致了磁性特征垂向变化的空间差异,整体上看,远离现代沉积中心的柱样,成岩改造特征更为明显。磁化率值的大小、成岩分带的完整性及其反映的铁还原带和硫酸盐还原带转换深度,一定程度上可以揭示三角洲的淤积和侵蚀特征。