The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth t...The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.展开更多
The activation coefficient equations in the"activation criterion of pre-existing weakness"are relatively complex and not easy to apply to specific applications.The relative activity of pre-existing weaknesse...The activation coefficient equations in the"activation criterion of pre-existing weakness"are relatively complex and not easy to apply to specific applications.The relative activity of pre-existing weaknesses is often critical in geological analysis.The Mohr circle can be used only in two-dimensional stress analysis.By applying the"activation criterion of pre-existing weakness"and combining it with numerical analysis,we establish the correspondence between the pole(n,n)of a pre-existing weakness plane and its orientation in"Mohr space".As a result,the normal stress(n)and shear stress(n)of a pre-existing weakness plane can be readily expressed in Mohr space.Furthermore,we introduce the method and procedures for predicting the activation and relative activation of pre-existing weaknesses in Mohr space.Finally,we apply the Mohr space method and compare the predictions to sandbox modeling results and 3D seismic data.The results show that Mohr space can be used in stress analysis to estimate the activation of a pre-existing weakness in any triaxial stress state.展开更多
文摘The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.
基金supported by the China Major National Science & Technology Program of Oil and Gas (Grant Nos. 2011ZX05023-004-012, 2011ZX05006-006-02-01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41272160, 40772086)
文摘The activation coefficient equations in the"activation criterion of pre-existing weakness"are relatively complex and not easy to apply to specific applications.The relative activity of pre-existing weaknesses is often critical in geological analysis.The Mohr circle can be used only in two-dimensional stress analysis.By applying the"activation criterion of pre-existing weakness"and combining it with numerical analysis,we establish the correspondence between the pole(n,n)of a pre-existing weakness plane and its orientation in"Mohr space".As a result,the normal stress(n)and shear stress(n)of a pre-existing weakness plane can be readily expressed in Mohr space.Furthermore,we introduce the method and procedures for predicting the activation and relative activation of pre-existing weaknesses in Mohr space.Finally,we apply the Mohr space method and compare the predictions to sandbox modeling results and 3D seismic data.The results show that Mohr space can be used in stress analysis to estimate the activation of a pre-existing weakness in any triaxial stress state.
