Analysis of the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY Exchange Rates Using Multifractal Analysis and Extreme Value Theory

We performed a multifractal analysis using wavelet transform to detect the changes in the fractality of the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY exchange rates, and predicted their extreme values using extreme value theory. After the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY became multifractal, then the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen depreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and a strong yen depreciation was observed. The coherence between the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY was strong between 1995 and 2000. After the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen appreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and strong yen appreciation was observed. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GP model fitted to USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are shown, and all the diagnostic plots support the fitted GP model. The shape parameters of USD/JPY and EUR/JPY were close to zero, therefore the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY did not have finite upper limits. We predicted the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, and 500 years and their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI). As a result, the 10-year and 100-year return levels for USD/JPY were estimated to be 149.6 and 164.8, with 95% CI [143.2, 156.0] and [149.4, 180.1], respectively.

Analysis of Japan and World Records in the 100 m Dash Using Extreme Value Theory

Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We predicted the ultimate 100 m dash records for men and women for specific periods using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The various diagnostic plots, which assessed the accuracy of the GEV model, were well fitted to the 100 m records in the world and Japan, validating the model. The men’s world record had a shape parameter of -0.250 with a 95% confidence interval of [-0.391, -0.109]. The 100 m record had a finite limit and a calculated upper limit was 9.46 s. The return level estimates for the men’s world record were 9.74, 9.62, and 9.58 s with a 95% confidence interval of [9.69, 9.79], [9.54, 9.69], and [9.48, 9.67] for 10-, 100- and 350-year return periods, respectively. In one year, the probability of occurrence for a new world record of men, 9.58 s (Usain Bolt), was 1/350, while that for women, 10.49 s (Florence Griffith-Joyner), was about 1/100, confirming it was more difficult for men to break records than women.

Current and future of anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction techniques

In recent years,anterior cruciate ligament(ACL)reconstruction has generally yielded favorable outcomes.However,ACL reconstruction has not provided satisfactory results in terms of the rate of returning to sports and prevention of osteoarthritis(OA)progression.In this paper,we outline current techniques for ACL reconstruction such as graft materials,double-bundle or single-bundle reconstruction,femoral tunnel drilling,all-inside technique,graft fixation,preservation of remnant,anterolateral ligament reconstruction,ACL repair,revision surgery,treatment for ACL injury with OA and problems,and discuss expected future trends.To enable many more orthopedic surgeons to achieve excellent ACL reconstruction outcomes with less invasive surgery,further studies aimed at improving surgical techniques are warranted.Further development of biological augmentation and robotic surgery technologies for ACL reconstruction is also required.

An Analysis of the Maximum Lifespan in the World and Japan

Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We used the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to predict the human lifespan in the world and Japan. The diagnostic plots, which assessed the accuracy of the GEV model, were fitted to the human lifespan, validating the model. The human lifespan in the world and Japan had shape parameters of ?0.1623 and ?0.2949 and had an upper limit. The calculated upper limit in the world was 128.7 years. The world’s oldest record holder, Jeanne Calment’s age of 122.45 years, was close to the 260-year return level and was far from the calculated upper limit. The calculated upper limit in Japan was 120.4 years. Japan’s oldest record holder, Kane Tanaka’s age of 119 years in 2022, was the 500-year return level and was close to the upper limit. In the world, achieving the calculated limit was difficult, but the human lifespan will soon reach the upper limit in Japan.

Trends and Disparities in Breast Cancer Incidence-Mortality Rates of Black-White Women in the U.S.: 2000-2016

Introduction: Female Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the U.S. While the incidence rate is lower in Hispanic-Black, the mortality rate is higher compared to Non-Hispanic White. This study investigates the trends of incidence and mortality rate of breast cancer in the U.S.: 2000-2016. It further explores the racial disparities between these two races. Method: Data for four age groups (15 - 39 yrs, 40 - 64 yrs, 65 - 74 yrs, 75+ yrs) of Hispanic-Black and Non-Hispanic White women for breast cancer were extracted from SEER;age-adjusted rate (U.S. 2000 standard population). Primary trend analysis was done with PyCharm 2020.3.3. (line charts) and regression models to check any significant increase or decrease over the years were done with JoinPoint 4.8.0.1 (APC, 95% CI, significant p-value: <0.05). Result: Incidence rate is higher in Non-Hispanic White women, whereas mortality rate is higher in Hispanic Black. The 40 - 64 yrs age groups showed an increase in incidence rate for Hispanic Black women, whereas an decrease for White women. The least vulnerable group, 15 - 39 yrs age showed an increase in incidence rate in Non-Hispanic White women. The mortality rate was declining overall for both races. Conclusion: Disparities in oncologic healthcare, insurance system and socio-economic factors are possibly responsible for the higher mortality in Black American women. Improvements in these factors may reduce racial differences.

Analyzing of the ENSO Index Using Extreme Value Theory

We predicted the extreme values of the ENSO index, the Niño3.4 index, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using extreme value theory. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the Generalized Pareto (GP) model fitted to the Niño3.4 index and SOI are shown, and all four diagnostic plots support the fitted GP model. Because the shape parameter of the Niño3.4 was negative, the Niño3.4 index had a finite upper limit. In contrast, that of the SOI was zero, therefore the SOI did not have a finite upper limit, and there is a possibility that a significant risk will occur. We predicted the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, and 500 years and their respective 95% confidence intervals, CI. The 10-year, and 100-year return levels for Niño3.4 were estimated to be 2.41, and 2.62, with 95% CI [2.22, 2.59], and [2.58, 2.66], respectively. The Niño3.4 index was 2.65 in the 2015/16 super El Niño, which is a phenomenon that occurs once every 500 years. The Niño3.4 index was 2.51 in the 1982/83, and 1997/98 super El Niño, which is a phenomenon that occurs once every 20 years. Recently, a large super El Niño event with a small probability of occurrence has occurred. In response to global warming, the super El Niño events are becoming more likely to occur.

Relationship between the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area and Global Temperature by Multifractal Analysis

Changes in Arctic sea ice are an important fingerprint of natural and anthropogenic climate change. In general, fractal properties may be observed in the time series of the dynamics of complex systems. To study the relations among the Northern Hemisphere (NH) sea ice area, solar activity, global temperature, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, we investigated changes in the fractal behavior of these time series by multifractal analysis and applying the wavelet coherence. The relationship between the solar activity: solar flux, sunspot number (SSN), and ultraviolet B (UV-B), and NH sea ice area was assessed based on changes in fractality. We identified the existing relations among the NH sea ice area, global temperature, and PDO based on changes in fractality and wavelet coherence. In the 2000s when the global warming hiatus occurred, after the order formation of NH sea ice area in the early 2000s, the change in state from multifractal to monofractal of the PDO and global temperature occurred, when fluctuations became large and multifractality became strong. We identified a small change in fractality for NH sea ice area, UV-B, and global temperature and a large change in fractality for solar flux, SSN, and PDO, which had large fluctuation. Our results will contribute to further studies on climate change.

Relationship between Solar Activity, Total Ozone, and Solar Ultraviolet Radiation: Multifractal Analysis

We investigated the relationship between solar activity, total ozone, and solar ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation from the perspective of multi-fractality. Fractal properties are observed in the time series of the dynamics of complex systems. To detect the changes in fractality, we performed a multifractal analysis using a wavelet transform. The changes in fractality indicated that solar activity was closely related to the total ozone and that the total ozone had a strong effect on UV-B radiation. For high solar activity, the F10.7 flux and global total ozone exhibited monofractality. The F10.7 flux and total ozone also increased, and a change from multifractality to monofractality was observed. This corresponded to the formation of the order. The strong interactions between the solar flux and ozone occur during the high solar activity. In contrast, UV-B radiation increased and showed multifractality, when fluctuations in UV-B radiation became large. For low solar activity, the F10.7 flux and total ozone exhibited multifractality, and UV-B radiation exhibited monofractality. Hence, the change in fractality of the F10.7 flux and total ozone was the opposite of UV-B radiation. A significant change in fractality for F10.7 flux and SSN, which had a significant fluctuation and a slight change in fractality for UV-B radiation, and total ozone were identified.

Analyzing the Annual Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Japan by Extreme Value Theory

One of the most important and interesting issues associated with the earthquakes is the long-term trend of the extreme events. Extreme value theory provides methods for analysis of the most extreme parts of data. We estimated the annual maximum magnitude of earthquakes in Japan by extreme value theory using earthquake data between 1900 and 2019. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to fit the extreme indices. The distribution was used to estimate the probability of extreme values in specified time periods. The various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GEV model fitted to the magnitude of maximum earthquakes data in Japan gave the validity of the GEV model. The extreme value index, ξ was evaluated as −0.163, with a 95% confidence interval of [−0.260, −0.0174] by the use of profile likelihood. Hence, the annual maximum magnitude of earthquakes has a finite upper limit. We obtained the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500 years along with their respective 95% confidence interval. Further, to get a more accurate confidence interval, we estimated the profile log-likelihood. The return level estimate was obtained as 7.83, 8.60 and 8.99, with a 95% confidence interval of [7.67, 8.06], [8.32, 9.21] and [8.61, 10.0] for the 10-, 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. Hence, the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, which was the largest in the observation history of Japan, had a magnitude of 9.0, and it was a phenomenon that occurs once every 500 year.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of HIV early infant diagnosis in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review

Background:Continuing progress in the global pediatric human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)response depends on timely identification and care of infants with HIV.As countries scale-out improvements to HIV early infant diagnosis(EID),economic evaluations are needed to inform program design and implementation.This scoping review aimed to summarize the available evidence and discuss practical implications of cost and cost-effectiveness analyses of HIV EID.Methods:We systematically searched bibliographic databases(Embase,MEDLINE and EconLit)and grey literature for economic analyses of HIV EID in low-and middle-income countries published between January 2008 and June 2021.We extracted data on unit costs,cost savings,and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios as well as outcomes related to health and the HIV EID care process and summarized results in narrative and tabular formats.We converted unit costs to 2021 USD for easier comparison of costs across studies.Results:After title and abstract screening of 1278 records and full-text review of 99 records,we included 29 studies:17 cost analyses and 12 model-based cost-effectiveness analyses.Unit costs were 21.46-51.80 USD for point-of-care EID tests and 16.21-42.73 USD for laboratory-based EID tests.All cost-effectiveness analyses stated at least one of the interventions evaluated to be cost-effective.Most studies reported costs of EID testing strategies;however,few studies assessed the same intervention or reported costs in the same way,making comparison of costs across studies challenging.Limited data availability of context-appropriate costs and outcomes of children with HIV as well as structural heterogeneity of cost-effectiveness modelling studies limits generalizability of economic analyses of HIV EID.Conclusions:The available cost and cost-effectiveness evidence for EID of HIV,while not directly comparable across studies,covers a broad range of interventions and suggests most interventions designed to improve EID are cost-effective or cost-saving.Further studies capturing costs and benefits of EID services as they are delivered in real-world settings are needed.

Ultimate Olympics Records in Athletics Using Extreme Value Theory

Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We used the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to predict the ultimate 100 m, 200 m, 400 m, 4 × 100 m relay, and long jump records of male gold medalists at the Olympics. The diagnostic plots, which assessed the accuracy of the GEV model, were fitted to all event records, validating the model. The 100 m, 200 m, 400 m, 4 × 100 m, and long jump records had negative shape parameters and calculated upper limits of 9.58 s, 19.18 s, 42.97 s, 36.71 s, and 9.03 m, respectively. The calculated upper limit in the 100 m (9.58 s) was equal to the record of Usain Bolt (August 16, 2009). The 100 m and 200 m world records were close to the calculated upper limits, and achieving the calculated limit was difficult. The 400 m and 4 × 100 m relay world records were almost equal to the calculated upper limits and the 500-year return level estimate, and slight improvement was possible in both. At the Tokyo Olympics in August 2021, in the 100 m, 200 m, and 4 × 100 m, in one year the probability of occurrence for a record was about 1/30. In the 400 m and long jump, it was about 1/20. In the 100 m, 200 m, and 4 × 100 m relay, more difficult records show that a fierce battle has taken place.