The M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake in 2022 is located on the NNW-trending Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault with left-lateral strike-slip behavior.This area is where the Xianshuihe,Anninghe,Daliangshan and Longmenshan ...The M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake in 2022 is located on the NNW-trending Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault with left-lateral strike-slip behavior.This area is where the Xianshuihe,Anninghe,Daliangshan and Longmenshan faults intersect.China Earthquake Administration has identified that intersection area,among the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault,the Anninghe fault,the Daliangshan fault and the southern part of the Longmenshan fault,as a high-magnitude earthquake hazard area.According to existing data on the Luding earthquake,including the focal parameters,the spatial distribution of re-located aftershocks,dominated azimuth of the earthquake intensities and earthquake-induced ground fissures,we built a 3D earthquake fault model.We found that two discontinuous NNW-trending vertical strike-slip faults with left stepping were the seismogenic faults of the Luding earthquake.Its coseismic left-lateral dislocation triggered transtensional slips and aftershocks on the NW-trending secondary faults at its northernmost tensile area.Meanwhile,local crustal coseismic shortening on the side of Mt.Gongga triggered the aftershocks on the NE-and NW-trending secondary conjugated strike-slip faults,which were confirmed by GNSS observations and In SAR deformation field around the epicenter.This earthquake rupturing pattern also controlled the spatial distribution of the earthquake intensity IX area and earthquake chain hazards.The Coulomb stress calculation shows that the Luding earthquake increases the risk of high-magnitude earthquake occurrence on the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and the Anninghe fault.Finally,we suggested doing good monitoring of the Anninghe fault and the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and avoiding active faults with seismogenic capacity and areas prone to earthquake-chained hazards during the site selection and planning of reconstruction.展开更多
Earthquakes pose significant perils to the built environment in urban areas.To avert the calamitous aftermath of earthquakes,it is imperative to construct seismic resilient cities.Due to the intricacy of the concept o...Earthquakes pose significant perils to the built environment in urban areas.To avert the calamitous aftermath of earthquakes,it is imperative to construct seismic resilient cities.Due to the intricacy of the concept of urban seismic resilience(USR),its assessment is a large-scale system engineering issue.The assessment of USR should be based on the notion of urban seismic capacity(USC)assessment,which includes casualties,economic loss,and recovery time as criteria.Functionality loss is also included in the assessment of USR in addition to these criteria.The assessment indicator system comprising five dimensions(building and lifeline infrastructure,environment,society,economy,and institution)and 20 indicators has been devised to quantify USR.The analytical hierarchy process(AHP)is utilized to compute the weights of the criteria,dimensions,and indicators in the urban seismic resilience assessment(USRA)indicator system.When the necessary data for a city are obtainable,the seismic resilience of that city can be assessed using this framework.To illustrate the proposed methodology,a moderate-sized city in China was selected as a case study.The assessment results indicate a high level of USR,suggesting that the city possesses strong capabilities to withstand and recover from potential future earthquakes.展开更多
On August 6,2023,a magnitude MW5.5 earthquake struck Pingyuan County,Dezhou City,Shandong Province,China.This event was significant as no large earthquakes had been recorded in the region for over a century,and no act...On August 6,2023,a magnitude MW5.5 earthquake struck Pingyuan County,Dezhou City,Shandong Province,China.This event was significant as no large earthquakes had been recorded in the region for over a century,and no active fault had been previously identified.This study collects 1309 P-wave arrival times and 866 S-wave arrival times from 74 seismic stations less than 200 km to the epicenter to constrain the spatial distribution of the mainshock and its 125 early aftershocks by the double difference earthquake relocation method,and selects 864 P-waveforms from 288 stations located within 800 km of the epicenter to constrain the focal mechanism solution of the mainshock through centroid moment tensor inversion.The relocation and the inversion indicate,the Pingyuan MW5.5 earthquake was caused by a rupture on a buried fault,likely an extensive segment of the Gaotang fault.This buried fault exhibited a dip of approximately 75°to the northwest,with a strike of 222°,similar to the Gaotang fault.The rupture initiated at the depth of 18.6 km and propagated upward and northeastward.However,the ground surface was not broken.The total duration of the rupture was~6.0 s,releasing the scalar moment of 2.5895×1017 N·m,equivalent to MW5.54.The moment rate reached the maximum only 1.4 seconds after the rupture initiation,and the 90%scalar moment was released in the first 4.6 s.In the first 1.4 seconds of the rupture process,the rupture velocity was estimated to be 2.6 km/s,slower than the local S-wave velocity.As the rupture neared its end,the rupture velocity decreased significantly.This study provides valuable insights into the seismic characteristics of the Pingyuan MW5.5 earthquake,shedding light on the previously unidentified buried fault responsible for the seismic activity in the region.Understanding the behavior of such faults is crucial for assessing seismic hazards and enhancing earthquake preparedness in the future.展开更多
The M6.2 earthquake in Jishishan,Gansu Province,on December 18,2023,caused extraordinary earthquake disasters.It was located in the northern part of the north−south seismic zone,which is a key area for earthquake moni...The M6.2 earthquake in Jishishan,Gansu Province,on December 18,2023,caused extraordinary earthquake disasters.It was located in the northern part of the north−south seismic zone,which is a key area for earthquake monitoring in China.The newly built dense strong motion stations in this area provide unprecedented conditions for high-precision earthquake relocation,especially the earthquake focal depth.This paper uses the newly built strong motion and traditional broadband seismic networks to relocate the source locations of the M3.0 and above aftershocks and to invert their focal mechanisms.The horizontal error of earthquake location is estimated to be 0.5−1 km,and the vertical error is 1−2 km.The focal depth range of aftershocks is 9.6−14.6 km,distributed in a 12-km-long strip with SSE direction.Aftershocks in the south are more concentrated horizontally and vertically,while aftershocks in the north are more scattered.The focal mechanisms of the main shock and aftershocks are relatively consistent,and the P-axis orientation is consistent with the regional strain direction.There is a seismic blank area of M3.0 and above,about 3−5 km between the main shock and aftershocks.It is suggested that the energy released by the main shock rupture is concentrated in this area.Based on the earthquake location and focal mechanism of the main shock,it is inferred that the Northern Lajishan fault zone is the seismogenic structure of the main shock,and the main shock did not occur on the main fault,but on a secondary fault.The initial rupture depth and centroid depth of the main shock were 12.8 and 14.0 km,respectively.The source rupture depth may not be the main reason for the severe earthquake disaster.展开更多
Based on the understanding that the seismic fault system is a nonlinear complex system,Rundle(1995)introduced the nonlinear threshold system used in meteorology to analyze the ocean-atmosphere interface and the El Ni?...Based on the understanding that the seismic fault system is a nonlinear complex system,Rundle(1995)introduced the nonlinear threshold system used in meteorology to analyze the ocean-atmosphere interface and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation into the study of seismic activity changes,and then proposed the PI method(Rundle et al.,2000a,b).Wu et al.(2011)modified the Pattern Informatics Method named MPI to extract the ionospheric anomaly by using data from DEMETER satellites which is suitable for 1–3 months short-term prediction.展开更多
North China is one of the high-risk areas for destructive strong earthquakes in China's Mainland, with a history of numerous significant seismic events. On August 6, 2023, an Mw5.5 earthquake struck Pingyuan Count...North China is one of the high-risk areas for destructive strong earthquakes in China's Mainland, with a history of numerous significant seismic events. On August 6, 2023, an Mw5.5 earthquake struck Pingyuan County, Dezhou City, in Shandong Province, China. This earthquake was the largest in the eastern North China Craton(NCC) since the Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Due to the absence of surface ruptures, the fault responsible for the Pingyuan Mw5.5 earthquake remains unclear. To reveal the subsurface geological structure near the earthquake epicenter, this study utilized highresolution two-dimensional seismic reflection profiles to interpret pre-existing faults.展开更多
The 2022 Honghe M_(S)5.0 seismic event is intriguing due to its occurrence in the south of the Red River Fault,an area historically lacking seismic activities greater than M_(S)5.0.To elucidate the seismogenic mechani...The 2022 Honghe M_(S)5.0 seismic event is intriguing due to its occurrence in the south of the Red River Fault,an area historically lacking seismic activities greater than M_(S)5.0.To elucidate the seismogenic mechanism and scrutinize stress-triggered interactions,we calculated co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress alterations induced by nine historical seismic events(M≥6.0).The analysis reveals that these substantial seismic events provoked co-seismic stress augmentations of 1.409 bar and postseismic stress increments of 0.159 bar.Noteworthy seismic events,such as the 1833 Songming,1877Shiping,1913 Eshan,and 1970 Tonghai earthquakes,catalyzed the occurrence of the Honghe earthquake.Areas of heightened future seismic risk include the southern region of the Red River Fault and the eastern segments of the Shiping-Jianshui and Qujiang faults.Additionally,we assessed the correlation between the spatial distribution of aftershocks and the Coulomb stress shift triggered by the mainshock,taking into account the influence of calculation parameter settings.展开更多
We are living in a world of numbers and calculations with enormous amount of pretty fast user-friendly software ready for an automatic output that may lead to a discovery or,alternatively,mislead to a deceptive conclu...We are living in a world of numbers and calculations with enormous amount of pretty fast user-friendly software ready for an automatic output that may lead to a discovery or,alternatively,mislead to a deceptive conclusion,erroneous claims and predictions.As a matter of fact,nowadays,Science can disclose Natural Hazards,assess Risks,and deliver the state-of-the-art Knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophes along with useful Recommendations on the level of risks for decision making regarding engineering design,insurance,and emergency management.展开更多
On February 6,2023,two earthquakes with magnitudes of M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 struck southeastern Turkey,causing significant casualties and economic losses.These seismic events occurred along the East Anatolian Fault ...On February 6,2023,two earthquakes with magnitudes of M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 struck southeastern Turkey,causing significant casualties and economic losses.These seismic events occurred along the East Anatolian Fault Zone,a convergent boundary between the Arabian Plate and the Anatolian Subplate.In this study,we analyze the M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes by comparing their aftershock relocations,tomographic images,and stress field inversions.The earthquakes were localized in the upper crust and exhibited steep dip angles.Furthermore,the aftershocks occurred either close to the boundaries of low and high P-wave velocity anomaly zones or within the low P-wave velocity anomaly zones.The East Anatolia Fault,associated with the M_(W) 7.8 earthquake,and the SürgüFault,related to the M_(W) 7.5 earthquake,predominantly experienced shear stress.However,their western sections experienced a combination of strike-slip and tensile stresses in addition to shear stress.The ruptures of the M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes appear to have bridged a seismic gap that had seen sparse seismicity over the past 200 years prior to the 2023 Turkey earthquake sequence.展开更多
Amidst China's aggressive expansion of its high-speed rail network,the intersection of these lines with seismic fault zones has elevated the risk profile for high-speed rail travel.To counteract the potential dang...Amidst China's aggressive expansion of its high-speed rail network,the intersection of these lines with seismic fault zones has elevated the risk profile for high-speed rail travel.To counteract the potential dangers posed by seismic disturbances,China has introduced a comprehensive high-speed railway earthquake early-warning system.This article presents an in-depth examination of this system,encompassing aspects such as its developmental evolution,architectural design,and pivotal technologies.Furthermore,it ventures into the realm of future enhancements and developmental pathways for the system,fusing emergent findings from earthquake early warning research with advancements in artificial intelligence.展开更多
On December 18,2023,the Jishishan area in Gansu Province was jolted by a M_(S) 6.2 earthquake,which is the most powerful seismic event that occurred throughout the year in China.The earthquake occurred along the NWtre...On December 18,2023,the Jishishan area in Gansu Province was jolted by a M_(S) 6.2 earthquake,which is the most powerful seismic event that occurred throughout the year in China.The earthquake occurred along the NWtrending Lajishan fault(LJSF),a large tectonic transformation zone.After this event,China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)has timely published several reports about seismic sources for emergency responses.The earthquake early warning system issued the first alert 4.9 s after the earthquake occurrence,providing prompt notification that effectively mitigated panics,injuries,and deaths of residents.The near real-time focal mechanism solution indicates that this earthquake is associated with a thrust fault.The distribution of aftershocks,the rupture process,and the recorded amplitudes from seismic monitoring and GNSS stations,all suggest that the mainshock rupture predominately propagates to the northwest direction.The duration of the rupture process is~12 s,and the largest slip is located at approximately 6.3 km to the NNW from the epicenter,with a peak slip of 0.12 m at~8 km depth.Seismic station N0028 recorded the highest instrumental intensity,which is 9.4 on the Mercalli scale.The estimated intensity map shows a seismic intensity reaching up to IX near the rupture area,consistent with field survey results.The aftershocks(up to December 22,2023)are mostly distributed in the northwest direction within~20 km of the epicenter.This earthquake caused serious casualties and house collapses,which requires further investigations into the impact of this earthquake.展开更多
On December 18,2023,an M_(s)6.2 earthquake occurred in Jishishan,Gansu Province,China.This earthquake happened in the eastern region of the Qilian Orogenic Belt,which is situated at the forefront of the NE margin of t...On December 18,2023,an M_(s)6.2 earthquake occurred in Jishishan,Gansu Province,China.This earthquake happened in the eastern region of the Qilian Orogenic Belt,which is situated at the forefront of the NE margin of the Tibetan Plateau(i.e.,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau),encompassing a rhombic-shaped area that intersects the Qilian-Qaidam Basin,Alxa Block,Ordos Block,and South China Block.In this study,we analyzed the deep tectonic pattern of the Jishishan earthquake by incorporating data on the crustal thickness,velocity structure,global navigation satellite system(GNSS)strain field,and anisotropy.We discovered that the location of the earthquake was related to changes in the crustal structure.The results showed that the Jishishan M_(s)6.2 earthquake occurred in a unique position,with rapid changes in the crustal thickness,Vp/Vs,phase velocity,and S-wave velocity.The epicenter of the earthquake was situated at the transition zone between high and low velocities and was in proximity to a low-velocity region.Additionally,the source area is flanked by two high-velocity anomalies from the east and west.The principal compressive strain orientation near the Lajishan Fault is primarily in the NNE and NE directions,which align with the principal compressive stress direction in this region.In some areas of the Lajishan Fault,the principal compressive strain orientations show the NNW direction,consistent with the direction of the upper crustal fast-wave polarization from local earthquakes and the phase velocity azimuthal anisotropy.These features underscore the relationship between the occurrence of the Jishishan M_(s)6.2 earthquake and the deep inhomogeneous structure and deep tectonic characteristics.The NE margin of the Tibetan Plateau was thickened by crustal extension in the process of northeastward expansion,and the middle and lower crustal materials underwent structural deformation and may have been filled with salt-containing fluids during the extension process.The presence of this weak layer makes it easier for strong earthquakes to occur through the release of overlying rigid crustal stresses.However,it is unlikely that an earthquake of comparable or larger magnitude would occur in the short term(e.g.,in one year)at the Jishishan east margin fault.展开更多
In 2023,two consecutive earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 7 occurred in Türkiye,causing severe casualties and economic losses.The damage to critical urban infrastructure and building structures,including highw...In 2023,two consecutive earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 7 occurred in Türkiye,causing severe casualties and economic losses.The damage to critical urban infrastructure and building structures,including highways,railroads,and water supply pipelines,was particularly severe in areas where these structures intersected the seismogenic fault.Critical infrastructure projects that traverse active faults are susceptible to the influence of fault movement,pulse velocity,and ground motions.In this study,we used a unique approach to analyze the acceleration records obtained from the seismic station array(9 strong ground motion stations)located along the East Anatolian Fault(the seismogenic fault of the MW7.8 mainshock of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet).The acceleration records were filtered and integrated to obtain the velocity and displacement time histories.We used the results of an on-site investigation,jointly conducted by China Earthquake Administration and Türkiye’s AFAD,to analyze the distribution of PGA,PGV,and PGD recorded by the strong motion array of the East Anatolian Fault.We found that the maximum horizontal PGA in this earthquake was 3.0 g,and the maximum co-seismic surface displacement caused by the East Anatolian Fault rupture was 6.50 m.As the fault rupture propagated southwest,the velocity pulse caused by the directional effect of the rupture increased gradually,with the maximum PGA reaching 162.3 cm/s.We also discussed the seismic safety of critical infrastructure projects traversing active faults,using two case studies of water supply pipelines in Türkiye that were damaged by earthquakes.We used a three-dimensional finite element model of the PE(polyethylene)water pipeline at the Islahiye State Hospital and fault displacement observations obtained through on-site investigation to analyze pipeline failure mechanisms.We further investigated the effect of the fault-crossing angle on seismic safety of a pipeline,based on our analysis and the failure performance of the large-diameter Thames Water pipeline during the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake.The seismic method of buried pipelines crossing the fault was summarized.展开更多
In this study,the shear-wave splitting parameters of local seismic events from the source regions of the 2023 Türkiye MW7.7 and MW7.6 doublet earthquakes(event 1 and event 2,respectively)were measured from June 1...In this study,the shear-wave splitting parameters of local seismic events from the source regions of the 2023 Türkiye MW7.7 and MW7.6 doublet earthquakes(event 1 and event 2,respectively)were measured from June 1,2022,to April 25,2023,and their spatiotemporal characteristics were analyzed.The results revealed clear spatial and temporal differences.Spatially,the dominant fast-wave polarization direction at each station shows a strong correlation with the direction of the maximum horizontal principal compressive stress,as characterized by focal mechanism solutions of seismic events(MW≥3.5)near the station.The dominant fast-wave polarization direction and the regional stress field also showed a strong correlation with the intermovement of the Arabian Plate,African Plate,and Anatolian Block.Along the Nurdagi-Pazarcik fault zone,the seismic fault of event 1,stations closer to the middle of the fault where the mainshock occurred exhibited notably greater delay times than stations located towards the ends of the fault and far from the mainshock.In addition,the stations located to the east of the Nurdagi-Pazarcik fault and to the north of the Sürgüfault also exhibited large delay times.The spatial distribution of shear-wave splitting parameters obtained from each station indicates that the upper-crust anisotropy in the source area is mainly controlled by the regional stress field,which is closely related to the state of the block motion.During the seismogenic process of the MW7.7 earthquake,more stress accumulated in the middle of the Nurdagi-Pazarcik fault than at either end of the fault.Under the influence of the MW7.7 and MW7.6 events,the stress that accumulated during the seismogenic process of the earthquake doublet may have migrated towards some areas outside the aftershock intensive area after the earthquakes,and the crustal stress and its adjustment range near the outer stations increased significantly.With the exception of two stations with few effective events,all stations showed a consistent change in shear-wave splitting parameters over time.In particular,each station showed a decreasing trend in delay times after the doublet earthquakes,reflecting the obvious intensification of crustal stress adjustment in the seismogenic zone after the doublet earthquakes.With the occurrence of the earthquake doublet and a large number of aftershocks,the stress accumulated during the seismogenic process of the doublet earthquakes is gradually released,and then the adjustment range of crustal stress is also gradually reduced.展开更多
On February 6,2023,a devastating earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.8 struck the town of Pazarcik in south-central Türkiye,followed by another powerful earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.6 tha...On February 6,2023,a devastating earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.8 struck the town of Pazarcik in south-central Türkiye,followed by another powerful earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.6 that struck the nearby city of Elbistan 9 h later.To study the characteristics of surface deformation caused by this event and the influence of fault rupture,this study calculated the static coseismic deformation of 56 stations and dynamic displacement waveforms of 15 stations using data from the Turkish national fixed global navigation satellite system(GNSS)network.A maximum static coseismic displacement of 0.38 m for the M_(W)7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake was observed at station ANTE,36 km from the epicenter,and a maximum dynamic coseismic displacement of 4.4 m for the M_(W)7.6 Elbistan earthquake was observed at station EKZ1,5 km from the epicenter.The rupture-slip distributions of the two earthquakes were inverted using GNSS coseismic deformation as a constraint.The results showed that the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture segment was distinct and exposed on the ground,resulting in significant rupture slip along the Amanos and Pazarcik fault segments of the East Anatolian Fault.The maximum slip in the Pazarcik fault segment was 10.7 m,and rupture occurred at depths of 0–15 km.In the Cardak fault region,the Elbistan earthquake caused significant ruptures at depths of 0–12 km,with the largest amount of slip reaching 11.6 m.The Coulomb stress change caused by the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture along the Cardak fault segment was approximately 2 bars,and the area of increased Coulomb stress corresponded to the subsequent rupture region of the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Thus,it is likely that the M_(W)7.8 earthquake triggered or promoted the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Based on the cumulative stress impact of the M_(W)7.8 and M_(W)7.6 events,the southwestern segment of the East Anatolian Fault,specifically the Amanos fault segment,experienced a Coulomb rupture stress change exceeding 2 bars,warranting further attention to assess its future seismic hazard risk.展开更多
In this paper, we calculated the seismic pattern of instrumental recorded small and moderate earthquakes near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province. According to the spatial distribution o...In this paper, we calculated the seismic pattern of instrumental recorded small and moderate earthquakes near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province. According to the spatial distribution of small and moderate earthquakes, 6 seismic dense zones are delineated. Temporal distribution of ML2 earthquakes since 1970 in each seismic dense zone has been analyzed. Based on temporal distribution characteristics and historical earthquake activity, three types of seismicities are proposed. The relationship between seismic types and crustal medium is analyzed. The mechanism of three types is discussed. Finity of strong earthquake recurrence is pro-posed. Seismic hazard in mid-long term and diversity of earthquake disaster in Shanxi seismic belt are discussed.展开更多
The Ms 6.4 earthquake occurred on May 21,2021 in Yangbi County,Dali Prefecture,Yunnan Province,which was the largest earthquake after the 2014 Jinggu Ms 6.6 earthquake,in western Yunnan.After the earthquake,the rapid ...The Ms 6.4 earthquake occurred on May 21,2021 in Yangbi County,Dali Prefecture,Yunnan Province,which was the largest earthquake after the 2014 Jinggu Ms 6.6 earthquake,in western Yunnan.After the earthquake,the rapid field investigation and earthquake relocation reveal that there was no obvious surface rupture and the earthquake did not occur on pre-existing active fault,but on a buried fault on the west side of Weixi–Qiaohou–Weishan fault zone in the eastern boundary of Baoshan sub-block.Significant foreshocks appeared three days before the earthquake.These phenomena aroused scholars'intensive attention.What the physical process and seismogenic mechanism of the Yangbi Ms 6.4 earthquake are revealed by the foreshocks and aftershocks?These scientific questions need to be solved urgently.展开更多
Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake...Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake forecasting experiments across CSEP testing centers(Schorlemmer et al.,2018).Over more than a decade,efforts to compare forecasts with observed earthquakes using numerous statistical test methods and insights into earthquake predictability,which have become a highlight of the CSEP platform.展开更多
For earthquakes (M≥4.0) occurring along and around the East Anatolian fault zone and the Dead Sea fault zone within ten years immediately before the MW7.8 Gaziantep earthquake,Türkiye,of February 6,2023,we explo...For earthquakes (M≥4.0) occurring along and around the East Anatolian fault zone and the Dead Sea fault zone within ten years immediately before the MW7.8 Gaziantep earthquake,Türkiye,of February 6,2023,we explored the correlation between seismicity and the earth's rotation.We statistically evaluated the correlation using the Schuster's test.The results are quantitatively assessed by a p-value.We found a clear downward trend in the p-values from early 2020 to late 2022 in the studied region.We also obtained a spatial distribution of the p-values showing a low p-value area near the northeastern end of the aftershock zone.Although the stress induced by the rotation of the earth is very weak,it could control the earthquake occurrence when the focal medium is loaded to the critical state to release a large earthquake.The decrease in the b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relation is considered in the form of the tectonic stress increase in the crust.We investigated the b-value as a function of time in the study region.We found that the b-value had decreased for about eleven years before the p-value started to decrease,with a relative reduction of 57%.Therefore,the result of the lower p-values obtained in the present study infers that the earthquakes were dominated by the earth's rotation prior to the MW7.8 Türkiye earthquake due to a critical state of the focal region.展开更多
The Southern Highland Fold and Thrust Belt(SHFTB),the boundary of the Australian plate and the New Guinea Highland block,significantly contributes to the convergent deformation along the plate bound-ary.However,due to...The Southern Highland Fold and Thrust Belt(SHFTB),the boundary of the Australian plate and the New Guinea Highland block,significantly contributes to the convergent deformation along the plate bound-ary.However,due to the lack of observation data,the detailed slip pattern of the SHFTB and the orogenic mechanism beneath the New Guinea Highlands remains controversial.On 25 February 2018,the M_(w)7.5 Papua New Guinea(PNG)earthquake struck the southeastern segment of the SHFTB.The detailed rupture characteristics of this event is significant for further clarifying the inter-seismic slip pattern along the SHFTB.Here,the coseismic deformation field of this earthquake was obtained using high-resolution ALOS-2 satellite images.We find that the 2018 M_(w)7.5 PNG earthquake ruptured a large-scaled fault(SHFTB)extending to the lower crust(deeper than 20 km)beneath the New Guinea Highlands,with a dip angle of 24°.The slips on the fault plane are equivalent to moment magnitudes of M_(w)7.51.Three major asperities with thrust-dominated slip of up to 3.94 m are detected on the fault plane.This finding implies that the slip pattern on the eastern segment of the SHFTB is dominated by thrust,rather than with significant sinistral movement,as previously reported.The tectonic deformation across the New Guinea Highlands is possibly concentrated on the large-scale fault SHFTB and primarily controls the intra-continental orogeny in the central Papua New Guinea.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41941016)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1839204)。
文摘The M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake in 2022 is located on the NNW-trending Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault with left-lateral strike-slip behavior.This area is where the Xianshuihe,Anninghe,Daliangshan and Longmenshan faults intersect.China Earthquake Administration has identified that intersection area,among the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault,the Anninghe fault,the Daliangshan fault and the southern part of the Longmenshan fault,as a high-magnitude earthquake hazard area.According to existing data on the Luding earthquake,including the focal parameters,the spatial distribution of re-located aftershocks,dominated azimuth of the earthquake intensities and earthquake-induced ground fissures,we built a 3D earthquake fault model.We found that two discontinuous NNW-trending vertical strike-slip faults with left stepping were the seismogenic faults of the Luding earthquake.Its coseismic left-lateral dislocation triggered transtensional slips and aftershocks on the NW-trending secondary faults at its northernmost tensile area.Meanwhile,local crustal coseismic shortening on the side of Mt.Gongga triggered the aftershocks on the NE-and NW-trending secondary conjugated strike-slip faults,which were confirmed by GNSS observations and In SAR deformation field around the epicenter.This earthquake rupturing pattern also controlled the spatial distribution of the earthquake intensity IX area and earthquake chain hazards.The Coulomb stress calculation shows that the Luding earthquake increases the risk of high-magnitude earthquake occurrence on the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and the Anninghe fault.Finally,we suggested doing good monitoring of the Anninghe fault and the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and avoiding active faults with seismogenic capacity and areas prone to earthquake-chained hazards during the site selection and planning of reconstruction.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFC3805100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52222811 and 52494963)。
文摘Earthquakes pose significant perils to the built environment in urban areas.To avert the calamitous aftermath of earthquakes,it is imperative to construct seismic resilient cities.Due to the intricacy of the concept of urban seismic resilience(USR),its assessment is a large-scale system engineering issue.The assessment of USR should be based on the notion of urban seismic capacity(USC)assessment,which includes casualties,economic loss,and recovery time as criteria.Functionality loss is also included in the assessment of USR in addition to these criteria.The assessment indicator system comprising five dimensions(building and lifeline infrastructure,environment,society,economy,and institution)and 20 indicators has been devised to quantify USR.The analytical hierarchy process(AHP)is utilized to compute the weights of the criteria,dimensions,and indicators in the urban seismic resilience assessment(USRA)indicator system.When the necessary data for a city are obtainable,the seismic resilience of that city can be assessed using this framework.To illustrate the proposed methodology,a moderate-sized city in China was selected as a case study.The assessment results indicate a high level of USR,suggesting that the city possesses strong capabilities to withstand and recover from potential future earthquakes.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42104043,42374081,and U2039208)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration(No.DQJB22R35).
文摘On August 6,2023,a magnitude MW5.5 earthquake struck Pingyuan County,Dezhou City,Shandong Province,China.This event was significant as no large earthquakes had been recorded in the region for over a century,and no active fault had been previously identified.This study collects 1309 P-wave arrival times and 866 S-wave arrival times from 74 seismic stations less than 200 km to the epicenter to constrain the spatial distribution of the mainshock and its 125 early aftershocks by the double difference earthquake relocation method,and selects 864 P-waveforms from 288 stations located within 800 km of the epicenter to constrain the focal mechanism solution of the mainshock through centroid moment tensor inversion.The relocation and the inversion indicate,the Pingyuan MW5.5 earthquake was caused by a rupture on a buried fault,likely an extensive segment of the Gaotang fault.This buried fault exhibited a dip of approximately 75°to the northwest,with a strike of 222°,similar to the Gaotang fault.The rupture initiated at the depth of 18.6 km and propagated upward and northeastward.However,the ground surface was not broken.The total duration of the rupture was~6.0 s,releasing the scalar moment of 2.5895×1017 N·m,equivalent to MW5.54.The moment rate reached the maximum only 1.4 seconds after the rupture initiation,and the 90%scalar moment was released in the first 4.6 s.In the first 1.4 seconds of the rupture process,the rupture velocity was estimated to be 2.6 km/s,slower than the local S-wave velocity.As the rupture neared its end,the rupture velocity decreased significantly.This study provides valuable insights into the seismic characteristics of the Pingyuan MW5.5 earthquake,shedding light on the previously unidentified buried fault responsible for the seismic activity in the region.Understanding the behavior of such faults is crucial for assessing seismic hazards and enhancing earthquake preparedness in the future.
文摘The M6.2 earthquake in Jishishan,Gansu Province,on December 18,2023,caused extraordinary earthquake disasters.It was located in the northern part of the north−south seismic zone,which is a key area for earthquake monitoring in China.The newly built dense strong motion stations in this area provide unprecedented conditions for high-precision earthquake relocation,especially the earthquake focal depth.This paper uses the newly built strong motion and traditional broadband seismic networks to relocate the source locations of the M3.0 and above aftershocks and to invert their focal mechanisms.The horizontal error of earthquake location is estimated to be 0.5−1 km,and the vertical error is 1−2 km.The focal depth range of aftershocks is 9.6−14.6 km,distributed in a 12-km-long strip with SSE direction.Aftershocks in the south are more concentrated horizontally and vertically,while aftershocks in the north are more scattered.The focal mechanisms of the main shock and aftershocks are relatively consistent,and the P-axis orientation is consistent with the regional strain direction.There is a seismic blank area of M3.0 and above,about 3−5 km between the main shock and aftershocks.It is suggested that the energy released by the main shock rupture is concentrated in this area.Based on the earthquake location and focal mechanism of the main shock,it is inferred that the Northern Lajishan fault zone is the seismogenic structure of the main shock,and the main shock did not occur on the main fault,but on a secondary fault.The initial rupture depth and centroid depth of the main shock were 12.8 and 14.0 km,respectively.The source rupture depth may not be the main reason for the severe earthquake disaster.
基金supported by the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2039207)。
文摘Based on the understanding that the seismic fault system is a nonlinear complex system,Rundle(1995)introduced the nonlinear threshold system used in meteorology to analyze the ocean-atmosphere interface and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation into the study of seismic activity changes,and then proposed the PI method(Rundle et al.,2000a,b).Wu et al.(2011)modified the Pattern Informatics Method named MPI to extract the ionospheric anomaly by using data from DEMETER satellites which is suitable for 1–3 months short-term prediction.
文摘North China is one of the high-risk areas for destructive strong earthquakes in China's Mainland, with a history of numerous significant seismic events. On August 6, 2023, an Mw5.5 earthquake struck Pingyuan County, Dezhou City, in Shandong Province, China. This earthquake was the largest in the eastern North China Craton(NCC) since the Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Due to the absence of surface ruptures, the fault responsible for the Pingyuan Mw5.5 earthquake remains unclear. To reveal the subsurface geological structure near the earthquake epicenter, this study utilized highresolution two-dimensional seismic reflection profiles to interpret pre-existing faults.
基金funded by the Youth Seismic Regime Tracking Project of CEA(2023010129)。
文摘The 2022 Honghe M_(S)5.0 seismic event is intriguing due to its occurrence in the south of the Red River Fault,an area historically lacking seismic activities greater than M_(S)5.0.To elucidate the seismogenic mechanism and scrutinize stress-triggered interactions,we calculated co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress alterations induced by nine historical seismic events(M≥6.0).The analysis reveals that these substantial seismic events provoked co-seismic stress augmentations of 1.409 bar and postseismic stress increments of 0.159 bar.Noteworthy seismic events,such as the 1833 Songming,1877Shiping,1913 Eshan,and 1970 Tonghai earthquakes,catalyzed the occurrence of the Honghe earthquake.Areas of heightened future seismic risk include the southern region of the Red River Fault and the eastern segments of the Shiping-Jianshui and Qujiang faults.Additionally,we assessed the correlation between the spatial distribution of aftershocks and the Coulomb stress shift triggered by the mainshock,taking into account the influence of calculation parameter settings.
基金supported by the Russian Science Foundationproject no.20-17-00180-P“Development of a scenario approach to the tasks of seismic hazard and risk assessment”。
文摘We are living in a world of numbers and calculations with enormous amount of pretty fast user-friendly software ready for an automatic output that may lead to a discovery or,alternatively,mislead to a deceptive conclusion,erroneous claims and predictions.As a matter of fact,nowadays,Science can disclose Natural Hazards,assess Risks,and deliver the state-of-the-art Knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophes along with useful Recommendations on the level of risks for decision making regarding engineering design,insurance,and emergency management.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42130312 and 4198810101)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(Grant No.2019QZKK07)
文摘On February 6,2023,two earthquakes with magnitudes of M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 struck southeastern Turkey,causing significant casualties and economic losses.These seismic events occurred along the East Anatolian Fault Zone,a convergent boundary between the Arabian Plate and the Anatolian Subplate.In this study,we analyze the M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes by comparing their aftershock relocations,tomographic images,and stress field inversions.The earthquakes were localized in the upper crust and exhibited steep dip angles.Furthermore,the aftershocks occurred either close to the boundaries of low and high P-wave velocity anomaly zones or within the low P-wave velocity anomaly zones.The East Anatolia Fault,associated with the M_(W) 7.8 earthquake,and the SürgüFault,related to the M_(W) 7.5 earthquake,predominantly experienced shear stress.However,their western sections experienced a combination of strike-slip and tensile stresses in addition to shear stress.The ruptures of the M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes appear to have bridged a seismic gap that had seen sparse seismicity over the past 200 years prior to the 2023 Turkey earthquake sequence.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Development Plan of China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.(J2022G007)China Academy of Railway Sciences Group Co.,Ltd.(2023YJ103).
文摘Amidst China's aggressive expansion of its high-speed rail network,the intersection of these lines with seismic fault zones has elevated the risk profile for high-speed rail travel.To counteract the potential dangers posed by seismic disturbances,China has introduced a comprehensive high-speed railway earthquake early-warning system.This article presents an in-depth examination of this system,encompassing aspects such as its developmental evolution,architectural design,and pivotal technologies.Furthermore,it ventures into the realm of future enhancements and developmental pathways for the system,fusing emergent findings from earthquake early warning research with advancements in artificial intelligence.
基金supported by China Earthquake Administration Science for Earthquake Resilience(XH23050YB)Natural Science Foundation of China(42304072).
文摘On December 18,2023,the Jishishan area in Gansu Province was jolted by a M_(S) 6.2 earthquake,which is the most powerful seismic event that occurred throughout the year in China.The earthquake occurred along the NWtrending Lajishan fault(LJSF),a large tectonic transformation zone.After this event,China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)has timely published several reports about seismic sources for emergency responses.The earthquake early warning system issued the first alert 4.9 s after the earthquake occurrence,providing prompt notification that effectively mitigated panics,injuries,and deaths of residents.The near real-time focal mechanism solution indicates that this earthquake is associated with a thrust fault.The distribution of aftershocks,the rupture process,and the recorded amplitudes from seismic monitoring and GNSS stations,all suggest that the mainshock rupture predominately propagates to the northwest direction.The duration of the rupture process is~12 s,and the largest slip is located at approximately 6.3 km to the NNW from the epicenter,with a peak slip of 0.12 m at~8 km depth.Seismic station N0028 recorded the highest instrumental intensity,which is 9.4 on the Mercalli scale.The estimated intensity map shows a seismic intensity reaching up to IX near the rupture area,consistent with field survey results.The aftershocks(up to December 22,2023)are mostly distributed in the northwest direction within~20 km of the epicenter.This earthquake caused serious casualties and house collapses,which requires further investigations into the impact of this earthquake.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project Nos.41804046 and 41974050)the Special Fund of the Key Laboratory of Earthquake Prediction,China Earthquake Administration(No.CEAIEF2022010100).
文摘On December 18,2023,an M_(s)6.2 earthquake occurred in Jishishan,Gansu Province,China.This earthquake happened in the eastern region of the Qilian Orogenic Belt,which is situated at the forefront of the NE margin of the Tibetan Plateau(i.e.,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau),encompassing a rhombic-shaped area that intersects the Qilian-Qaidam Basin,Alxa Block,Ordos Block,and South China Block.In this study,we analyzed the deep tectonic pattern of the Jishishan earthquake by incorporating data on the crustal thickness,velocity structure,global navigation satellite system(GNSS)strain field,and anisotropy.We discovered that the location of the earthquake was related to changes in the crustal structure.The results showed that the Jishishan M_(s)6.2 earthquake occurred in a unique position,with rapid changes in the crustal thickness,Vp/Vs,phase velocity,and S-wave velocity.The epicenter of the earthquake was situated at the transition zone between high and low velocities and was in proximity to a low-velocity region.Additionally,the source area is flanked by two high-velocity anomalies from the east and west.The principal compressive strain orientation near the Lajishan Fault is primarily in the NNE and NE directions,which align with the principal compressive stress direction in this region.In some areas of the Lajishan Fault,the principal compressive strain orientations show the NNW direction,consistent with the direction of the upper crustal fast-wave polarization from local earthquakes and the phase velocity azimuthal anisotropy.These features underscore the relationship between the occurrence of the Jishishan M_(s)6.2 earthquake and the deep inhomogeneous structure and deep tectonic characteristics.The NE margin of the Tibetan Plateau was thickened by crustal extension in the process of northeastward expansion,and the middle and lower crustal materials underwent structural deformation and may have been filled with salt-containing fluids during the extension process.The presence of this weak layer makes it easier for strong earthquakes to occur through the release of overlying rigid crustal stresses.However,it is unlikely that an earthquake of comparable or larger magnitude would occur in the short term(e.g.,in one year)at the Jishishan east margin fault.
基金funded by the China National Key Research and Development Program(No.2022YFC3003505)the Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Public-interest Scientific Institutes(No.DQJB23Y01)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52278540)the Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Public-interest Scientific Institutes(No.DQJB22B28).
文摘In 2023,two consecutive earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 7 occurred in Türkiye,causing severe casualties and economic losses.The damage to critical urban infrastructure and building structures,including highways,railroads,and water supply pipelines,was particularly severe in areas where these structures intersected the seismogenic fault.Critical infrastructure projects that traverse active faults are susceptible to the influence of fault movement,pulse velocity,and ground motions.In this study,we used a unique approach to analyze the acceleration records obtained from the seismic station array(9 strong ground motion stations)located along the East Anatolian Fault(the seismogenic fault of the MW7.8 mainshock of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet).The acceleration records were filtered and integrated to obtain the velocity and displacement time histories.We used the results of an on-site investigation,jointly conducted by China Earthquake Administration and Türkiye’s AFAD,to analyze the distribution of PGA,PGV,and PGD recorded by the strong motion array of the East Anatolian Fault.We found that the maximum horizontal PGA in this earthquake was 3.0 g,and the maximum co-seismic surface displacement caused by the East Anatolian Fault rupture was 6.50 m.As the fault rupture propagated southwest,the velocity pulse caused by the directional effect of the rupture increased gradually,with the maximum PGA reaching 162.3 cm/s.We also discussed the seismic safety of critical infrastructure projects traversing active faults,using two case studies of water supply pipelines in Türkiye that were damaged by earthquakes.We used a three-dimensional finite element model of the PE(polyethylene)water pipeline at the Islahiye State Hospital and fault displacement observations obtained through on-site investigation to analyze pipeline failure mechanisms.We further investigated the effect of the fault-crossing angle on seismic safety of a pipeline,based on our analysis and the failure performance of the large-diameter Thames Water pipeline during the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake.The seismic method of buried pipelines crossing the fault was summarized.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42074053 and 42374079)the Fundamental Research Funds from the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration(Nos.DQJB19B30 and JY2022Z02).
文摘In this study,the shear-wave splitting parameters of local seismic events from the source regions of the 2023 Türkiye MW7.7 and MW7.6 doublet earthquakes(event 1 and event 2,respectively)were measured from June 1,2022,to April 25,2023,and their spatiotemporal characteristics were analyzed.The results revealed clear spatial and temporal differences.Spatially,the dominant fast-wave polarization direction at each station shows a strong correlation with the direction of the maximum horizontal principal compressive stress,as characterized by focal mechanism solutions of seismic events(MW≥3.5)near the station.The dominant fast-wave polarization direction and the regional stress field also showed a strong correlation with the intermovement of the Arabian Plate,African Plate,and Anatolian Block.Along the Nurdagi-Pazarcik fault zone,the seismic fault of event 1,stations closer to the middle of the fault where the mainshock occurred exhibited notably greater delay times than stations located towards the ends of the fault and far from the mainshock.In addition,the stations located to the east of the Nurdagi-Pazarcik fault and to the north of the Sürgüfault also exhibited large delay times.The spatial distribution of shear-wave splitting parameters obtained from each station indicates that the upper-crust anisotropy in the source area is mainly controlled by the regional stress field,which is closely related to the state of the block motion.During the seismogenic process of the MW7.7 earthquake,more stress accumulated in the middle of the Nurdagi-Pazarcik fault than at either end of the fault.Under the influence of the MW7.7 and MW7.6 events,the stress that accumulated during the seismogenic process of the earthquake doublet may have migrated towards some areas outside the aftershock intensive area after the earthquakes,and the crustal stress and its adjustment range near the outer stations increased significantly.With the exception of two stations with few effective events,all stations showed a consistent change in shear-wave splitting parameters over time.In particular,each station showed a decreasing trend in delay times after the doublet earthquakes,reflecting the obvious intensification of crustal stress adjustment in the seismogenic zone after the doublet earthquakes.With the occurrence of the earthquake doublet and a large number of aftershocks,the stress accumulated during the seismogenic process of the doublet earthquakes is gradually released,and then the adjustment range of crustal stress is also gradually reduced.
基金Science and Technology Development Fund of Wuhan Institute of Earth Observation,China Earthquake Administration(No.302021-21)Open Fund of Wuhan,Gravitation and Solid Earth Tides,National Observation and Research Station(WHYWZ202218).
文摘On February 6,2023,a devastating earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.8 struck the town of Pazarcik in south-central Türkiye,followed by another powerful earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.6 that struck the nearby city of Elbistan 9 h later.To study the characteristics of surface deformation caused by this event and the influence of fault rupture,this study calculated the static coseismic deformation of 56 stations and dynamic displacement waveforms of 15 stations using data from the Turkish national fixed global navigation satellite system(GNSS)network.A maximum static coseismic displacement of 0.38 m for the M_(W)7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake was observed at station ANTE,36 km from the epicenter,and a maximum dynamic coseismic displacement of 4.4 m for the M_(W)7.6 Elbistan earthquake was observed at station EKZ1,5 km from the epicenter.The rupture-slip distributions of the two earthquakes were inverted using GNSS coseismic deformation as a constraint.The results showed that the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture segment was distinct and exposed on the ground,resulting in significant rupture slip along the Amanos and Pazarcik fault segments of the East Anatolian Fault.The maximum slip in the Pazarcik fault segment was 10.7 m,and rupture occurred at depths of 0–15 km.In the Cardak fault region,the Elbistan earthquake caused significant ruptures at depths of 0–12 km,with the largest amount of slip reaching 11.6 m.The Coulomb stress change caused by the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture along the Cardak fault segment was approximately 2 bars,and the area of increased Coulomb stress corresponded to the subsequent rupture region of the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Thus,it is likely that the M_(W)7.8 earthquake triggered or promoted the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Based on the cumulative stress impact of the M_(W)7.8 and M_(W)7.6 events,the southwestern segment of the East Anatolian Fault,specifically the Amanos fault segment,experienced a Coulomb rupture stress change exceeding 2 bars,warranting further attention to assess its future seismic hazard risk.
文摘In this paper, we calculated the seismic pattern of instrumental recorded small and moderate earthquakes near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province. According to the spatial distribution of small and moderate earthquakes, 6 seismic dense zones are delineated. Temporal distribution of ML2 earthquakes since 1970 in each seismic dense zone has been analyzed. Based on temporal distribution characteristics and historical earthquake activity, three types of seismicities are proposed. The relationship between seismic types and crustal medium is analyzed. The mechanism of three types is discussed. Finity of strong earthquake recurrence is pro-posed. Seismic hazard in mid-long term and diversity of earthquake disaster in Shanxi seismic belt are discussed.
文摘The Ms 6.4 earthquake occurred on May 21,2021 in Yangbi County,Dali Prefecture,Yunnan Province,which was the largest earthquake after the 2014 Jinggu Ms 6.6 earthquake,in western Yunnan.After the earthquake,the rapid field investigation and earthquake relocation reveal that there was no obvious surface rupture and the earthquake did not occur on pre-existing active fault,but on a buried fault on the west side of Weixi–Qiaohou–Weishan fault zone in the eastern boundary of Baoshan sub-block.Significant foreshocks appeared three days before the earthquake.These phenomena aroused scholars'intensive attention.What the physical process and seismogenic mechanism of the Yangbi Ms 6.4 earthquake are revealed by the foreshocks and aftershocks?These scientific questions need to be solved urgently.
基金granted by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42004038)Earthquake Tracking Orientation Tasks of CEA(Grant No.2024020104)+1 种基金the Special Fund of IEFCEA(Grant No.CEAIEF2022030206)the China Scholarship Council(CSC)exchange program(Grant No.202204190019)。
文摘Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake forecasting experiments across CSEP testing centers(Schorlemmer et al.,2018).Over more than a decade,efforts to compare forecasts with observed earthquakes using numerous statistical test methods and insights into earthquake predictability,which have become a highlight of the CSEP platform.
基金supported by the China National Key Research and Development Program(2022YFF0800601)the Special fund of the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration (DQJB23Z09)。
文摘For earthquakes (M≥4.0) occurring along and around the East Anatolian fault zone and the Dead Sea fault zone within ten years immediately before the MW7.8 Gaziantep earthquake,Türkiye,of February 6,2023,we explored the correlation between seismicity and the earth's rotation.We statistically evaluated the correlation using the Schuster's test.The results are quantitatively assessed by a p-value.We found a clear downward trend in the p-values from early 2020 to late 2022 in the studied region.We also obtained a spatial distribution of the p-values showing a low p-value area near the northeastern end of the aftershock zone.Although the stress induced by the rotation of the earth is very weak,it could control the earthquake occurrence when the focal medium is loaded to the critical state to release a large earthquake.The decrease in the b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relation is considered in the form of the tectonic stress increase in the crust.We investigated the b-value as a function of time in the study region.We found that the b-value had decreased for about eleven years before the p-value started to decrease,with a relative reduction of 57%.Therefore,the result of the lower p-values obtained in the present study infers that the earthquakes were dominated by the earth's rotation prior to the MW7.8 Türkiye earthquake due to a critical state of the focal region.
基金funded by the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(2022CFB260,2021CFB508)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42074007No.42130101).
文摘The Southern Highland Fold and Thrust Belt(SHFTB),the boundary of the Australian plate and the New Guinea Highland block,significantly contributes to the convergent deformation along the plate bound-ary.However,due to the lack of observation data,the detailed slip pattern of the SHFTB and the orogenic mechanism beneath the New Guinea Highlands remains controversial.On 25 February 2018,the M_(w)7.5 Papua New Guinea(PNG)earthquake struck the southeastern segment of the SHFTB.The detailed rupture characteristics of this event is significant for further clarifying the inter-seismic slip pattern along the SHFTB.Here,the coseismic deformation field of this earthquake was obtained using high-resolution ALOS-2 satellite images.We find that the 2018 M_(w)7.5 PNG earthquake ruptured a large-scaled fault(SHFTB)extending to the lower crust(deeper than 20 km)beneath the New Guinea Highlands,with a dip angle of 24°.The slips on the fault plane are equivalent to moment magnitudes of M_(w)7.51.Three major asperities with thrust-dominated slip of up to 3.94 m are detected on the fault plane.This finding implies that the slip pattern on the eastern segment of the SHFTB is dominated by thrust,rather than with significant sinistral movement,as previously reported.The tectonic deformation across the New Guinea Highlands is possibly concentrated on the large-scale fault SHFTB and primarily controls the intra-continental orogeny in the central Papua New Guinea.