Detection of ULF electromagnetic emissions as a precursor to two earthquakes in China

The geomagnetic data recorded by Kashi and Jinghai observatories in China were analyzed with improved polarization method. We compared the result around 0.01 Hz which is thought to be useful to detect the ULF anomaly with the result around 0.1 Hz which was inferred from the earthquake depth according to the skin effect, and found that 0.1 Hz is more proper to detect the ULF anomaly for both earthquakes studied in this paper.

3-D finite element modeling for evolution of stress field and interaction among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region

Based on the latest achievement about activities of geological structure, a 3-D finite-element model containing four layers of upper crust, lower crust (two layers) and upper mantle is established in the paper. By repeated tests and revisions, the boundary conditions of the model are determined. And then the background stress field, the stress field caused by fault creep and the stress field triggered by strong earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region, as well as their dynamic variations are calculated. The results indicate that the latter earthquake often occurs in the area with positive Coulomb rupture stress change associated with the former one, the former earthquake has a triggering effect on the latter one to a certain extent, and strong earthquake often occur in groups under the background of high stress, which is of great significance for distinguishing seismic anomalies, as well as for improving the level of earthquake prediction.

Application of EDA technology and μClinux operating system in the earthquake precursor instruments

Using Altera＇s Quartus II, Nios II IDE and Sopc Builder development tools, the proton precession magnetometer principle host hardware platform is designed in a cyclone II series FPGA chip （EP2C35）. The proton precession magnetometer principle host core circuit＇s single-chip system-logic design is achieved by building and configuring the Nios II soft-core processor, developing the IO interface and sensor control circuits, programming some hardware units＇ VHDL code, for example the equal precision cymometer and the DPLL. Through researching the embedded operating system configuration technology and building the NIOS II soft-core processor＇s μClinux cross-compile environment, the μClinux system is transplanted to the NIOS II environment. Another important task is writing the device drivers＇ and user programs＇ code. Through these work, the design realize the host function and achieve the expected target.

Primary Quantitative Study on Earthquake Damage Extracted from Remote Sensing Imagery——A Case Study of Seismic Damage in the Urban Area of Dujiangyan due to the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

The fast developing remote sensing techniques play an increasingly important role in earthquake emergency response, disaster survey and loss estimation. As there is a lack of quantitative studies on seismic damage based on remote sensing, its practicality in seismic disaster management has usually been questioned. The paper introduces the essential quantitative study idea, the concept of the remote sensing seismic damage index (DRS_I RS) and analysis models, demonstrates the seismic damage indices (DG_IC) of buildings obtained from ground surveying and its quantitative relation to DRS_I RS in Dujiangyan city, Sichuan Province, which was destroyed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with M_S8.0. The primary results show that an obvious relationship exists between the DRS_I RS of buildings obtained from the high resolution satellite or aerial remote sensing images and DG_I C or the building collapse ratio obtained through ground survey, which suggests that the quantitative study on seismic damage based on remote sensing will provide an effective method for seismic damage survey and loss estimation.

Application of support vector machine to synthetic earthquake prediction

This paper introduces the method of support vector machine （SVM） into the field of synthetic earthquake prediction, which is a non-linear and complex seismogenic system. As an example, we apply this method to predict the largest annual magnitude for the North China area （30°E-42°E, 108°N-125°N） and the capital region （38°E-41.5°E, 114°N-120°N） on the basis of seismicity parameters and observed precursory data. The corresponding prediction rates for the North China area and the capital region are 64.1% and 75%, respectively, which shows that the method is feasible.

Apparent Stress Changes of the 2010 Luanxian Earthquake Sequence

On March 6,2010,an earthquake of M L4. 5 took place in Luanxian,Hebei Province,with plenty of foreshocks and aftershocks. From December 2009 to March 2010,a series of M L≥ 2. 5 earthquakes were recorded by the digital seismic network of the capital region,which were selected to calculate the apparent stress in this region. The results show that,firstly,a high value anomaly of apparent stress appeared before the M L4. 5 and peak value appeared on the main shock, which then decreased after the ML4. 5 earthquake. The apparent stress of the main shock is much greater than that of most aftershocks,the sequence type is considered as a main shock-aftershock. Secondly,the size of apparent stress perfectly reflects the state of the stress field in the hypocenter region,and we can discuss seismic sequence properties through the changing process of apparent stress,in combination with the traditional methods to identify a sequence more accurately. Finally,in the case of magnitude less than or equal to M L3. 3,correlation between magnitude and apparent stress is positive.

Study on the Precise Location of the Xinjiang Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake

The seismic waveform of the Yutian MS7.3 earthquake,Xinjiang on February 12,2014 was recorded clearly and completely by the Digital Seismic Networks of Xinjiang,Qinghai,Tibet,and Xinjiang Hotan array,so the method of joint location by regional seismic network and seismic array can be used to accurately determine the earthquake source location.The following technologies were used in the process of location:(1) We selected seismic stations equally located around the epicenter of the MS7.3 earthquake with an average interval of about 15 degrees in the initial location.(2) The recording waveforms of Yutian seismic station were rotated to the radial and tangential directions to precisely obtain the arrival time of S-waves to determine the epicentral distance.(3) The velocity model was used in the determination of location of the epicenter,based on the historical records of earthquakes in the area within a radius of 1.0° from the source as the center,and the velocity model is obtained after re-fitting and calibration.(4) Based on the waveform records of the Hotan seismic array,the method of waveform beaming was used to determine the azimuths and perform the correction of the epicenter location with these azimuths.(5) The deterministic method was used to measure the source depth.Finally,it is concluded that the Yutian MS7.3 main shock hypocenter location is 36.197°N,82.467°E,focal depth 12 km and original time 17:19:48.2 p.m.February 12,2014.

Quantitative Seismic Risk Evaluation on Blind Faults in Offshore Areas of Tianjin,China

Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas,through studying tectonic structure,Quaternary activity,deep structure,stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas,the activity and tectonic features of the faults are determined synthetically.Using seismo-geological data,and the historical and modern seismicity data,the frequency-magnitude relationship model normalized by 500a is established and based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude M u and a t/b,the maximum magnitudes of the sea section of the Haihe river fault and the Haiyi fault are calculated.Then Poisson probability model is adopted and the quantitative parameters,such as the maximum magnitude,occurrence probability,recurrence cycle of the faults in the south Tianjin offshore areas in the coming 50～200a,are calculated.

Short-term Earthquake Prediction in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region Using the Method of Modulated Earthquakes

By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan,short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies were analyzed as well as prediction efficiency of modulated small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios near the region of the epicenter were calculated and sorted by time. The results indicated that there were significant effects using the modulated earthquake method to predict earthquakes greater than MS6. 0 in a short time. Before the MS8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake,there were obvious short-term precursory seismicity gap patterns of modulated small earthquakes.

A Study on the Quaternary Activity of the Tianjin Fault

The Tianjin fault includes South Tianjin fault and North Tianjin fault. Based on the results of artificial seismic exploration,four borehole profiles were laid out respectively west of Jinghai county town,Chaomidian village of Xiqing district,Xiaonanhe village of Xiqing district and Zhutoudian village of Ninghe county,to implement the exploration of these faults. Through identification of microfossils,the locations of marine beds in boreholes were obtained in this work,and through stratigraphic dating,the ages of the first,second and third marine beds were determined. Through strata correlation with the marine beds as key marker beds and integrating with the test results of paleo geomagnetism of boreholes BZ2 and TN3,the activity in the North and South Tianjin faults was analyzed and studied. The results indicate that there is no evidence of movement of the South Tianjin fault since the Late Pleistocene,but may have had weak activity before the Middle Pleistocene. No evidence of activity in the North Tianjin fault was found since the Late Pleistocene either,but might have been active in the early stage of the Early Pleistocene. These show that the activity of the South Tianjin fault is stronger than that of the North Tianjin fault. At the same time,we find that the second,third and fourth marine beds are lacking to some extent in different areas. So,before they are used in strata correlation, the age of marine beds must be determined,otherwise the results of strata correlation may lead to errors. For the second marine bed,where there has been dispute about its age,we consider the age to be about 70ka.

Application of Acoustic Technique to Surveying a Buried Fault in Tianjin

We carried out surveying on the shallow structure and faulted-stratum of the Haihe fault in Tianjin using acoustic surveying methods such as the single-channel seismic technique. The result shows that the method can obtain satisfactory results in wide and deep river courses. It also shows that in the Tanggu area of Tianjin, the upper fault point of Haihe fault is about 30m beneath the river bed and the corresponding latest active period is Q^3_p～Q^1_h, which is consistent with the former borehole survey result. In the offshore area of the Bohai Sea, Haihe fault shows as a NWW-NEE strike dense fault zone and its upper fault point is less than 30m beneath the seabed. It shows that the active characteristics of Haihe fault in the Bohai Sea correspond to the Tanggu area.

Tianjin Earthquake Emergency Command Technical System Composition And The Working Process

This paper introduced the composing and frame on the Tianjin earthquake emergency command technical system.It introduced the central function and the technical target.It evaluated the emergency and the applying prospect on the system.

Joint multivariate statistical model and its applications to synthetic earthquake predic-tion

针对目前地震综合预报中的一些问题，利用近30年来迅速发展的多元统计分析中主成分分析、判别分析组成多元统计组合模型，在众多的地震预报指标(预报因子)中采用信息最大化方法，选择对中期预测信息累积贡献率大于90％地震预报指标，分别进行相关分析、预测、检验，最终应用马氏距离判别作外推综合预报；并以华北地区(30°～42°N，108°125°E)为例进行模型的应用检验，初步研究已取得了较好的效果．

Measurement and Result of Soil Gas Radon and Soil Gas Mercury in the Exploration of Haihe Hidden Fault

In the exploration of the hidden Haihe fault,radon and mercury in soil gas were measured by using FG-3017 radon detector and XG-4 mercury analyzer.In this paper,based on the measurement results of 12 fault gas profiles,and integrating with the exploration results of artificial seismic prospecting,the relationship between anomalous site of fault gas and fault location is analyzed.Using the relationship between anomalous strength of fault gas and fault activity,the activity of Haihe fault is studied,thus the location and activity segmentation of the Haihe fault in Tianjin region are presented.This study shows that the method of fault gas detection can not only identify the preliminary location of fault,but also make preliminary segmentation of fault activity.The fault detected by the method of fault gas measurement is shown as a band.Through contrasting with exploration results of artificial seismic prospecting and analyzing,we find that the fault is located inside the band.According to the measurements of soil gas radon,the Haihe fault can be divided into east and west segments and the activity of the east segment of Haihe fault is stronger than that of the west segment.This is only a relative result,and it is difficult to judge whether the fault is active or not with this result.

The Application of Multiquadric Function Fitting to Borehole Strain Time Series Data Processing

Based on the existing continuous borehole strain observation,the multiquadric function fitting method was used to deal with time series data. The impact of difference kernel function parameters was discussed to obtain a valuable fitting result,from which the physical connotation of the original data and its possible applications were analyzed.Meanwhile,a brief comparison was made between the results of multiquadric function fitting and polynomial fitting.

Seismicity gap and seismic quiescence before 1999 Jiji(Chi-Chi) M_W7.6 earthquake

The September 21, 1999, Jiji （Chi-Chi） Mw7.6 earthquake is the strongest event occurred since 1900 in Taiwan of China. It is located in the middle segment of the western seismic zone of Taiwan. Based on several versions of China earthquake catalogue this study found that a seismic gap of M≥5 earthquakes appeared, in and around the epicenter region, 24 years before and lasted up to the mainshock occurrence. This study also noticed that there existed a lager seismically quiet region of M≥4 earthquakes, which lasted for about 2.5 years before the mainshock occurrence, The spatial variation pattern of regional seismicity before the mainshock seems to match with its coseismic source rupture process. The mentioned seismicity gap and seismic quiescence might be an indication of the preparation process of the Jiji strong earthquake.

Consistent CMT solutions from Harvard University before great earthquakes in Kurile Islands and its significance for earthquake prediction

In the paper, we use the Central Moment Tensor (CMT) solution acquired by Harvard Univ. for the earthquakes occurred in Kurile Islands to analyze the consistent focal mechanism in the area and propose the idea of making earthquake prediction based on the consistent parameter a of focal mechanism and stress field. The results from the study indicate that before Mw greater than or equal 7.5 earthquakes, the consistent parameter a decreases, which starts about 10-110 days and ends about 30-2 days before the great earthquakes. Although the phenomenon is not totally the same for individual earthquake, the difference is not large. Certainly, the phenomenon should be tested by time for its reliability. However, it should not be random that the focal mechanism of Mw greater than or equal 5.3 earthquakes are consistent successively with the stress field in an area of several hundreds kilometers in length. It should be a phenomenon of predictive significance. When the accumulated earthquake examples are sufficient, uniform judgment criteria and prediction principles can be stipulated then.

Joint multivariate statistical model and its applications to the synthetic earthquake prediction

Considering the problems that should be solved in the synthetic earthquake prediction at present, a new model is proposed in the paper. It is called joint multivariate statistical model combined by principal component analysis with discriminatory analysis. Principal component analysis and discriminatory analysis are very important theories in multivariate statistical analysis that has developed quickly in the late thirty years. By means of maximization information method, we choose several earthquake prediction factors whose cumulative proportions of total sam-ple variances are beyond 90% from numerous earthquake prediction factors. The paper applies regression analysis and Mahalanobis discrimination to extrapolating synthetic prediction. Furthermore, we use this model to charac-terize and predict earthquakes in North China (30~42N, 108~125E) and better prediction results are obtained.

Communication Technology and Application of Seismic Precursor Network Instrument

In this paper, the communication technology of seismic precursor network instrument is introduced, including instruction format and returned information format of instrument login, status information acquisition, and current measured data acquisition. The remote monitoring alarm software is based on this technology, and also introduced that the structure of monitoring information table, abnormal alarm index, and monitoring strategy. The application of the software raises instrument running rate and observation data quality.

Seismic Strain Energy Release of Active Faults in the Southeastern Margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Using the methods of the Gutenberg magnitude energy empirical formula and the Benioff seismic strain energy release curve,we make a systematic study on seismic strain energy release of historical earthquakes in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since 1500.This paper provides a periodic table of the earthquake strain energy release in the fault zones and the fault block areas.The study shows that seismic strain energy release is strong in the east and south,and weak in the west and north.The overall seismic strain energy release of the Yushu-Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system is consistent with the quasi-periodic pattern.The seismic cycle of some fault zones and fault block areas shows synchronization to a certain extent.The risk cannot be ignored in the current large release period of seismic strain energy in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau.Local seismic risk analysis shows that seismic risk is very high on the Anninghe-Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones.These dangerous zones need follow-up research.In future,it is necessary to combine different research methods to improve the reliability of seismic risk assessment.