In order to study whether the random events set can be used in Rudongbank of Nantong or not, we use ADCIRC model to stimulate the storm surge affectingRudong bank based on random events set. Then we use p-III curve to...In order to study whether the random events set can be used in Rudongbank of Nantong or not, we use ADCIRC model to stimulate the storm surge affectingRudong bank based on random events set. Then we use p-III curve to fit peak-value ofsurge of all the years to get the surge of typical return periods. The result shows that theresults of fitting by ADCIRC and by historical data coincide well in lower return periods,but to higher return periods, the results of fitting by ADCIRC are significantly higher thanthat of fitting by historical data. Due to the short time, it’s not enough for the extremestorm surge events to occur, the results of higher return periods are not reliable, so wecan’t rule out the reasonability of results based on random events set. The results offitting based on random events set are accurate in lower return periods and we can alsofully estimate the surge of higher return periods based on random events set. In thesituation of lacking historical data of hundreds of years, random events set can beaccepted as a tool to compute the return period of storm surge. Consideration of globalwarming, the possibility of super typhoons’ appearance will rise, which will result inhigher surge of return periods. In order to prevent the disaster of storm surge, thegovernment needs to deepen and reinforce the coastal engineering like seawalls and embankments.展开更多
文摘In order to study whether the random events set can be used in Rudongbank of Nantong or not, we use ADCIRC model to stimulate the storm surge affectingRudong bank based on random events set. Then we use p-III curve to fit peak-value ofsurge of all the years to get the surge of typical return periods. The result shows that theresults of fitting by ADCIRC and by historical data coincide well in lower return periods,but to higher return periods, the results of fitting by ADCIRC are significantly higher thanthat of fitting by historical data. Due to the short time, it’s not enough for the extremestorm surge events to occur, the results of higher return periods are not reliable, so wecan’t rule out the reasonability of results based on random events set. The results offitting based on random events set are accurate in lower return periods and we can alsofully estimate the surge of higher return periods based on random events set. In thesituation of lacking historical data of hundreds of years, random events set can beaccepted as a tool to compute the return period of storm surge. Consideration of globalwarming, the possibility of super typhoons’ appearance will rise, which will result inhigher surge of return periods. In order to prevent the disaster of storm surge, thegovernment needs to deepen and reinforce the coastal engineering like seawalls and embankments.
