电动汽车替代燃油车的气候和健康影响及社会成本--基于单车视角的成本效益分析

构建基于能源周期和全生命周期的分析框架,借助基于概率分布的成本效益分析方法,通过评估单辆纯电动汽车替代汽油车的气候和健康影响及相关社会成本,探讨现阶段电动汽车替代传统燃油车能否实现气候、健康和社会福利的改进。研究结果表明,在现有技术条件和电厂超低排放改造背景下,尽管电动汽车替代传统燃油车在能源周期能够实现碳减排(约324元/(辆年))、健康损害降低(约343元/(辆年))以及可观的能源节约(约4315元/(辆年)),但由于两种车辆之间巨大的制造成本差异(约1.6万元/(辆年)),现阶段电动汽车对传统燃油车的全面替代并不能实现社会总体福利的改进。因此,中国电动汽车推广政策短期内不应以全面替代为目标,而应识别具有较高气候和健康效益以及具有较大能源节约潜力的区域优先推广。

Co-controlling CO2 and NOx emission in China's cement industry:An optimal development pathway study

It is of important practical significance to reduce NOx emission and CO2 emission in China's cement industry.This paper firstly identifies key factors that influence China's future cement demand,and then uses the Gompertz model to project China's future cement demand and production.Furthermore,the multi-pollutant abatement planning model(MAP)was developed based on the TIMES model to analyze the co-benefits of CO2 and NOx control in China's cement industry.During modeling analysis,three scenarios such as basic as usual scenario(BAU),moderately low carbon scenario(MLC),and radically low carbon scenario(RLC),were built according to different policy constraints and emission control goals.Moreover,the benefits of co-controlling NOx and CO2 emission in China's cement industry have been estimated.Finally,this paper proposes a cost-efficient,green,and low carbon development roadmap for the Chinese cement sector,and puts forwards countermeasures as follows:first,different ministries should enhance communication and coordination about how to promote the co-control of NOx and CO2 in cement industry.Second,co-control technology list should be issued timely for cement industry,and the R&D investment on new technologies and demonstration projects should be increased.Third,the phase-out of old cement capacity needs to be continued at policy level.Fourth,it is important to scientifically evaluate the relevant environmental impact and adverse motivation of ammonia production by NOx removal requirement in cement industry.

Carbon emission scenarios of China's power sector:Impact of controlling measures and carbon pricing mechanism

The study constructs a low-carbon path analysis model of China's power sector based on TIMES model and presents a comparative analysis of carbon emissions under Reference,Low-Carbon and Enhanced Low-Carbon scenarios,and the main difference of the three scenarios is manifested by policy selection and policy strength.The conclusions are drawn as follows:(1)The peak of carbon emission in China's power sector will range from 4.0 GtCO2 to 4.8 GtCO2,which implies an increment of 0.5e1.3 billion or 14%e35%from the 2015 levels.(2)Introducing carbon price is an effective way to inhibit coal power and promote non-fossil fuels and Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage applications(CCUS).The carbon emission reduction effects will gradually increase with carbon price.When the carbon price attains to CN￥150 t
1CO2,the CO2 emission can decrease by 36%than that without carbon price.(3)CCUS is one of important contributing factor to reduce CO2 emission in power sector.Generally speaking,the development of non-fossil fuels and energy efficiency improvement are two main drivers for carbon mitigation,but once the carbon price reaches up to CN￥106 t
1CO2,the CCUS will be required to equip with thermal power units and its contribution on carbon emission reduction will remarkably increase.When carbon price increases to CN￥150 t
1CO2 in 2050,the application of CCUS will account for 44%of total emission reduction.(4)In the scenario with carbon price of CN￥150 t
1CO2,power sector would be decarbonized significantly,and the CO2 intensity will be 0.22 kgCO2(kW h)
1,but power sector is far from the goal that achieving net zero emission.In order to realize the long-term low greenhouse gas emission development goal that proposed by the Paris Agreement,more efforts are needed to be put to further reduce the carbon emission reduction of power sector.Based on the above scenario analysis,the study proposes four recommendations on the low-carbon development of China's power sector:(1)improve the energy efficiency proactively and optimize the energy structure of power sector gradually;(2)promote the low-carbon transition of power sector by using market-based mechanism like carbon emission trading scheme to internalize the external cost of carbon emission;(3)give more emphasis on and support to the CCUS application in power sector.

Multi-model comparison of CO2 emissions peaking in China:Lessons from CEMF01 study

The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.

Study of Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects and Auto-conversion Processes over the West African Monsoon Region Using a Regional Climate Model

This study assesses the direct and indirect effects of natural and anthropogenic aerosols （e.g., black carbon and sulfate） over West and Central Africa during the West African monsoon （WAM） period （June-July-August）. We investigate the impacts of aerosols on the amount of cloudiness, the influences on the precipitation efficiency of clouds, and the associated radiative forcing （direct and indirect）. Our study includes the implementation of three new formulations of auto-conversion parameterization [namely, the Beheng （BH）, Tripoli and Cotton （TC） and Liu and Daum （R6） schemes] in RegCM4.4.1, besides the default model＇s auto-conversion scheme （Kessler）. Among the new schemes, BH reduces the precipitation wet bias by more than 50% over West Africa and achieves a bias reduction of around 25% over Central Africa. Results from detailed sensitivity experiments suggest a significant path forward in terms of addressing the long-standing issue of the characteristic wet bias in RegCM. In terms of aerosol-induced radiative forcing, the impact of the various schemes is found to vary considerably （ranging from -5 to -25 W m-2）.

Quantitative evaluation framework and application for regional water sustainability under local energy transition

Quantitatively analysing the impacts on regional water sustainability under the energy transition is vital to regional water management and specific technology selection,which is also relevant to dealing with climate change.This study proposed a new multi-indicator evaluation framework for regional water sustainability under local energy transition to quantitatively evaluate the water withdrawal and water environment during the energy transition from a lifecycle perspective.An integrated regional energy-water evaluation model was also developed based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform with a combination of lifecycle assessment and water footprint analysis.Shaanxi province in China was then taken as a case study,and the impacts of its energy transition on regional water environmental sustainability,including quantity and quality,were investigated under five scenarios.Results showed that the large-scale application of carbon capture,utilisation and storage technology and bio-energy equipped with carbon capture and storage technology could have additional advantages regarding CO_(2) emissions.However,such technologies exhibit a minimal effect on improving water environmental quality and reducing water demand for the first time due to the leakage of absorbents,CO_(2) and other risky substances during capture,transportation and storage from a lifecycle perspective.This finding drives the innovation of related breakthrough technologies with the promotion of water and end-treatment technologies in the future.

Advancing multispecies fishery management in China:Lessons from international experience

China’s 13th Five-Year Plan elevated the national mandate for environmental sustainability.Chinese fisheries are characterized by full retention of high diversity catch harvested using unselective gears,creating ecological risks.Therefore,China launched pilot projects in management by Total Allowable Catch(TAC)in five coastal provinces in 2017 and 2018 to build experience with output controls.Fujian province launched an important pilot in its swimming crab fishery,the first to adopt a multispecies approach.To guide Fujian and other provinces in multispecies management,a workshop in April 2018 shared international experience.The workshop considered 13 case studies spanning a wide range of underlying scientific models and types of harvest controls.Multispecies harvest controls based on simple survey-or index-based models that aggregate trends for many species are typically operationally easier for managers and fishers.However,inadequate management can cause declines of individual species,sometimes leading to adoption of species-specific models and then species-specific harvest controls.This transition often incurs economic costs through scientific and management demands,and constraints on harvest of co-occurring species.The lessons revealed by the case studies suggest multispecies TACs might be effective in the Fujian swimming crab fishery given the modest number of species with similar and productive life history traits,and the market demand for all species.Continued experimentation with different management approaches through pilot projects can enable China to maintain progress toward sustainable fisheries goals under the 14th Five-Year Plan.

Influences of at-sea fishery monitoring on science, management, and fleet dynamics

Fisheries are complex systems comprised of scientific,management,fishing fleet,and ecological sub-systems.Although the composition,behavior,and functions of these sub-systems vary considerably,a review of case studies,research,and theory illustrates that one positive and pervasive influence across all can be at-sea monitoring of fishing activity and catch.At-sea monitoring provides reliable and high-resolution data on spatial and temporal patterns in effort and total catch,and the taxonomic and life stage composition of catch,thereby improving the science underlying management decisions.Those decisions can draw upon a wider range of approaches,such as rights-based management and finer scale spatial,temporal,and catch restrictions,that require the greater oversight facilitated by monitoring.Improved science and implementation can in turn increase confidence in management among the fishing fleet,bolstered by the knowledge that other fishers are equally accountable for their actions.This series of positive outcomes represent a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle in the fishery.Conversely,breakdowns in science,management,and fishing behavior can create an‘accountability cascade’of blame,distrust,and dysfunction.Therefore,effective at-sea monitoring,in combination with other reforms,can move fisheries away from overexploitation and toward sustainability.Critical to this transformation is a growing toolkit of technological innovations that increasingly make at-sea monitoring more feasible in fleets spanning diverse ecological,economic,political,and operational gradients.

Fisheries monitoring: Perspectives from the United States

Fisheries monitoring in the United States exists in many forms and serves many functions due to geographically varying objectives,practices,technology,institutional structures,and funding.In the U.S and abroad,diverse catch methods commonly exist for the same stock,thus monitoring and reporting strategies need to be tailored to unique operational needs.Common management challenges include funding limitation,survey design,coverage,and implementation.We describe three innovative examples of fisheries monitoring in the United States.These stories of success and failure can inform the design and implementation of new monitoring pilots and aid crafting both regional and national policies.We explore the innovative vessel monitoring and electronic logbook practices across multiple sectors for Gulf of Mexico red snapper(Lutjanus campechanus).Then,we examine a unique monitoring program that produces critical,near real-time genetic and population surveys for sockeye salmon(Oncorhynchus nerka)in Bristol Bay,Alaska.Our final case study describes the many fishery-dependent and-independent data streams for American lobster(Homarus americanus)in New England.Across all monitoring cases exists an explicit focus on the most critical aspects of organism life history.We find strong cross-institutional working relationships and adept agency coordination are imperatives in instances of stocks occupying multiple state or federal boundaries.Our results suggest the most effective approaches address the unique data needs of a fishery,and for this,thorough understanding of both biological and socioeconomic aspects of the fishery is a prerequisite.Ultimately,the monitoring program should jointly incentivize compliance while promoting continued and evolving interaction between resources users,scientists,and management.

Special topic-Fisheries monitoring:Eyes in the ocean:Innovative and multidimensional solutions to monitor fisheries

In the era of climate change,the visibility of environmental changes dictates public attention.Pictures of untamable bushfires,intense hurricanes,collapsing ice sheets are all gripping images that alarm us and urge us to take action.The ocean,however,gives us less such visuals;the changes that are taking place there are often abstract and hidden.However,the environmental challenges in the ocean are less visible but no less grave;they come from multiple sources:pollution,plastic waste,ocean surface warming,ocean acidification(IPCC,2019).But the most direct and age-old impact we exert on the ocean and its ecosystems is overfishing(FAO,2018).

Principles for managing marine ecosystems prone to tipping points

As climatic changes and human uses intensify,resource managers and other decision makers are taking actions to either avoid or respond to ecosystem tipping points,or dramatic shifts in structure and function that are often costly and hard to reverse.Evidence indicates that explicitly addressing tipping points leads to improved management outcomes.Drawing on theory and examples from marine systems,we distill a set of seven principles to guide effective management in ecosystems with tipping points,derived from the best available science.These principles are based on observations that tipping points(1)are possible everywhere,(2)are associated with intense and/or multifaceted human use,(3)may be preceded by changes in earlywarning indicators,(4)may redistribute benefits among stakeholders,(5)affect the relative costs of action and inaction,(6)suggest biologically informed management targets,and(7)often require an adaptive response to monitoring.We suggest that early action to preserve system resilience is likely more practical,affordable,and effective than late action to halt or reverse a tipping point.We articulate a conceptual approach to management focused on linking management targets to thresholds,tracking early-warning signals of ecosystem instability,and stepping up investment in monitoring and mitigation as the likelihood of dramatic ecosystem change increases.This approach can simplify and economize management by allowing decision makers to capitalize on the increasing value of precise information about threshold relationships when a system is closer to tipping or by ensuring that restoration effort is sufficient to tip a system into the desired regime.