基于Logistic的大兴安岭雷击火预测模型

利用大兴安岭雷击数据、雷击火数据、气象数据和GIS空间分析,引入加拿大雷击火预测模型和Logistic回归模型,建立了黑龙江大兴安岭雷击火预测模型。模型除了使用加拿大雷击火预测模型的固有参数外,还引入了影响火灾蔓延的地形因子作为模型参数。利用实际数据进行模型检验,结果表明:修正后的预测模型在特定区间的雷击火预测结果较为理想,总体预测正确率能达到30%以上,与加拿大预测正确率基本一致;也说明了基于logistic回归的加拿大雷击火预测模型,经过参数修正后同样适用于我国大兴安岭地区,可为该地区的雷击火预防提供可靠的数据支持。

Carbon storage and net primary productivity in Canadian boreal mixedwood stands

Canadian boreal mixedwood forests are extensive,with large potential for carbon sequestration and storage;thus,knowledge of their carbon stocks at different stand ages is needed to adapt forest management practices to help meet climate-change mitigation goals.Carbon stocks were quantified at three Ontario boreal mixedwood sites.A harvested stand,a juvenile stand replanted with spruce seedlings and a mature stand had total carbon stocks(±SE)of 133±13 at age 2,130±13 at age 25,and 207±15 Mg C ha^-1 at age 81 years.At the clear-cut site,stocks were reduced by about 40%or 90 Mg C ha^-1 at harvest.Vegetation held 27,34 and 62%of stocks,while detritus held 34,29 and 13%of stocks at age 2,25 and 81,respectively.Mineral soil carbon stocks averaged 51 Mg C ha^-1,and held 38,37 and 25%of stocks.Aboveground net primary productivity(±SE)in the harvested and juvenile stand was 2.1±0.2 and 3.7±0.3 Mg C ha^-1 per annum(p.a.),compared to 2.6±2.5 Mg C ha^-1 p.a.in the mature stand.The mature canopies studied had typical boreal mixedwood composition and mean carbon densities of 208 Mg C ha^-1,which is above average for managed Canadian boreal forest ecosystems.A comparison of published results from Canadian boreal forest ecosystems showed that carbon stocks in mixedwood stands are typically higher than coniferous stands at all ages,which was also true for stocks in vegetation and detritus.Also,aboveground net primary productivity was typically found to be higher in mixedwood than in coniferous boreal forest stands over a range of ages.Measurements from this study,together with those published from the other boreal forest stands demonstrate the potential for enhanced carbon sequestration through modified forest management practices to take advantage of Canadian boreal mixedwood stand characteristics.

Evaluating and quantifying the effect of various spruce budworm intervention strategies on forest carbon dynamics in Atlantic Canada

Spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaks are one of the most devastating natural disturbances in spruce-balsam fir forests of eastern North America. Both early intervention strategy (EIS) and foliage protection strategy (FP) are being tested to limit forest losses, but the quantitative impact on forest carbon (C) dynamics is still unclear. In this study, we designed 19 separate scenarios of no intervention or varying success of EIS, FP, and their combination on SBW caused defoliation and mortality. We then used the TRIPLEX-Insect model to quantify their effects on forest C dynamics in the forests of the four provinces of Atlantic Canada. A scenario applying FP to 10%of the area with the greatest potential C losses of living biomass, protecting foliage in 10%of the forests is more realistic than higher proportion of FP given the high cost and large areas involved, resulted in reducing average cumulative net ecosystem productivity (NEP) from 2020 to 2039 by 56%–127%compared to a no outbreak scenario.Our results showed that FP would have to be applied everywhere to reduce tree mortality and increase NEP more than 8 years of successful EIS applied. However, if EIS can be successfully implemented for 12 years, it will maintain more forest C than FP applied everywhere during a moderate outbreak. We also found that the combination of EIS followed by FP in 10%of the areas disturbed by the SBW could maintain average cumulative NEP at similar levels to no defoliation in every province of Atlantic Canada. Black/red spruce forests younger than 60years old underwent the smallest changes in C dynamics whether using EIS, FP, or both. This highlights the importance of forest species, forest age, and their interactions on the effectiveness of a treatment during SBW outbreak. Overall, 31%–76%of the study area in Atlantic Canada could convert from a C sink to a source by 2039,if no protective measures are used under the worst-case scenarios, thus contributing to future climate warming.

Early 20^thCentury Climate-Driven Shift in the Dynamics of Forest Tent Caterpillar Outbreaks

Using tree-ring analysis, we show that the dynamics of forest tent caterpillar [Malacosoma disstria (Hbn.)] outbreaks in Alberta, Canada shifted at the turn of the 20th century from cyclic, synchronous behaviour 1850-1910 to complex, asynchronous behavior 1910-1993. This shift in dynamics coincided with the emergence in 1910 of a latitudinal gradient in outbreak stability and periodicity reflecting a similar gradient in the periodicity of winter temperatures. We postulate that the synchronizing strength of winter temperatures has diminished as a result of climate warming, and that any synchronizing strength due to inter-population migration has been superseded by regionalized patterns of periodic forcing caused by weak low-frequency variability in winter temperatures. We speculate that a decrease in polar vorticity at the start of the 20th century led to increased meridional jet stream flow and more frequent arctic weather anomalies, resulting in a loss of synchronous decadal periodicity in outbreak occurrence. These changes in insect disturbance probabilities, including rising uncertainty, have profound consequences for forest disturbance risk management.

Resampling Simulator for the Probability of Detecting Invasive Species in Large Populations

This paper proposes a resampling simulator that will calculate probabilities of detecting invasive species infesting hosts that occur in large numbers. Different methods were examined to determine the bias of observed cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.s), generated from prototype resampling simulators. One involved seeing if they matched theoretical c.d.f.s, which were generated using formulae for calculating the probability of the union of many events (union formulae), which are known to be correct. Others involved assessing the bias of observed c.d.f.s, generated from using prototype resampling simulators operating on much larger simulated populations, when computation of theoretical c.d.f.s from the union formulae was not practical. Examples are given for using the proposed resampling simulator for detecting an invasive insect pest within the context of an invasive species management system.

cffdrs: an R package for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System

Introduction:The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System(CFFDRS)is a globally known wildland fire risk assessment system,and two major components,the fire weather index system and the fire behavior prediction system,have been extensively used both nationally and internationally to aid operational wildland fire decision making.Methods:In this paper,we present an overview of an R package cffdrs,which is developed to calculate components of the CFFDRS,and highlight some of its functionality.In particular,we demonstrate how these functions could be used for large data analysis.Results and Discussion:With this cffdrs package,we provide a portal for not only a collection of R functions dealing with all available components in CFFDRS but also a platform for various additional developments that are useful for the understanding of fire occurrence and behavior.This is the first time that all relevant CFFDRS methods are incorporated into the same platform,which can be accessed by both the management and research communities.

The ecology of predispersal insect herbivory on tree reproductive structures in natural forest ecosystems

Plant-insect interactions are key model systems to assess how some species affect the distribution, the abundance, and the evolution of others. Tree reproductive structures represent a critical resource for many insect species, which can be likely drivers of demography, spatial distribution, and trait diversification of plants. In this review, we present the ecological implications of predispersal herbivory on tree reproductive structures by insects (PIHR) in forest ecosystems. Both insect's and tree's perspectives are addressed with an emphasis on how spatiotemporal variation and unpredictability in seed availability can shape such particular plant-animal interactions. Reproductive structure insects show strong trophic specialization and guild diversification. Insects evolved host selection and spatiotemporal dispersal strategies in response to variable and unpredictable abundance of reproductive structures in both space and time. If PIHR patterns have been well documented in numerous systems, evidences of the subsequent demographic and evolutionary impacts on tree populations are still constrained by time-scale challenges of experimenting on such long-lived organisms, and modeling approaches of tree dynamics rarely consider PIHR when including biotic interactions in their processes. We suggest that spatially explicit and mechanistic approaches of the interactions between individual tree fecundity and in sect dynamics will clarify predictions of the demogenetic implications of PIHR in tree populations. In a global change context, further experimental and theoretical contributions to the likelihood of life-cycle disruptions between plants and their specialized herbivores, and to how these changes may gen erate novel dynamic patterns in each partner of the interaction are increasingly critical.

Genome Characteristics of the Cyclophragma Undans Nucleopolyhedrovirus: A Distinct Species in Group Ⅰ of Alphabaculovirus

The Cyclophragma undans nucleopolyhedrovirus(Cyun NPV), a potential pest control agent, was isolated from Cyclophragma undans(Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae), an important forest pest. In the present study, we performed detailed genome analysis of Cyun NPV and compared its genome to those of other Group Ⅰ alphabaculoviruses. Sequencing of the Cyun NPV genome using the Roche 454 sequencing system generated 142,900 bp with a G + C content of 45%. Genome analysis predicted a total of 147 hypothetical open reading frames comprising 38 baculoviral core genes, 24 lepidopteran baculovirus conserved genes, nine Group Ⅰ Alphabaculovirus conserved genes, 71 common genes, and five genes that are unique to Cyun NPV. In addition, the genome contains 13 homologous repeated sequences(hrs). Phylogenetic analysis groups Cyun NPV under a distinct branch within clade ‘‘a'' of Group Ⅰ in the genus Alphabaculovirus. Unlike other members of Group Ⅰ, Cyun NPV harbors only nine of the 11 genes previously determined to be specific to Group Ⅰ viruses.Furthermore, the Cyun NPV lacks the tyrosine phosphatase gene and the ac30 gene. The Cyun NPV F-like protein contains two insertions of continuous polar amino acids, one at the conventional fusion peptide and a second insertion at the pretransmembrane domain. The insertions are likely to affect the fusion function and suggest an evolutionary process that led to inactivation of the F-like protein. The above findings imply that Cyun NPV is a distinct species under Group Ⅰ Alphabaculovirus.

Correction to cffdrs:an R package for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System

Correction The original publication(cffdrs,2017)has an error in the citation of figure 1.Below you will find the correct version.Incorrect version:The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System flow chart(FCFDG 1992)Correct version:The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System flow chart(Stocks et al.1989).