A comprehensive analysis of future solar energy potential variations using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble approach in Colombia

Climate change is predicted to significantly impact solar energy generation,which is particularly concerning given that photovoltaic(PV)energy is critical to the global transition to clean energy in underdeveloped countries.This study analyses the PV potential variations in Colombia using a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)multi-model ensemble approach under two shared socio-economic pathway scenarios for the near(2025-50)and far(2051-2100)future.During the near-future period,the Pacific,Andean and Orinoquía regions are expected to experience a decrease in PV potential ranging from 10%to 23%for all shared socio-economic pathways.It will be particularly noticeable during the March/April/May and June/July/August seasons.On the other hand,CMIP6 estimations indicate a 1-4%increase in PV potential across the Amazon region during the June/July/August and September/October/November seasons.For the far future,it has been projected that the Pacific,Andean and Orinoquía regions may experience a significant decline in solar power generation due to increased cloud cover and reduced sunshine.The decrease in PV potential during the June/July/August season could range from 8%to 27%for all considered scenarios,with the Pacific region being the most affected.The Pacific region is projected to experience a decrease ranging from 10%to 35%for all seasons.It is worth noting that there are noticeable differences in PV potential across various regions,which can result in changes in cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols.Overall,the study provides valuable insights into the PV potential in Colombia and highlights the importance of considering regional variations and climate change scenarios in future energy planning.

Wind power potential over northern South America using ERA5-Land global reanalysis

The northernmost region of South America has great potential for wind energy production and is a strategic area for the energy transition.We analysed data from ERA5-Land global reanalysis from 1980 to 2020 to determine the wind power potential in this area.Our aim was to identify areas with a high potential for wind energy that could be used to supply energy in case of drought in the region or increases in fuel prices.We compared data from 19 meteorological stations located in Colombia with ERA5-Land reanalysis data to generate reliable information for the feasibility and operation of wind farms.According to our analysis,the Colombian Caribbean and Coastal Plain have monthly average wind speeds at 90 m ranging from 4.85 to 10.34 m/s and 3.79 to 6.62 m/s,respectively.Based on wind power density calculations,these regions have the highest wind power density in our study,with a monthly average of between 250 and 399 W/m^(2).The Caribbean Region had a 69%increase in wind power density from January to July compared with the annual average.The wind power density in the plains increased from January to March,while the Mountain Region had higher anomalies from May to October.The Alta Guajira and ParaguanáPeninsula have great potential to generate wind energy due to their privileged geographical location.Although ERA5 offers valuable information about wind availability in time and space,it cannot represent the influence of local effects on wind patterns for the Mountain Region.