ANALYSIS ON INTRA-ANNUAL INHOMOGENEITY OF RAINSTORM EVENTS IN GUANGXI

Based on the daily precipitation data of 83 stations in Guangxi and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1979 through 2008, the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and variation of the rainstorm concentration degree(RCD) and the rainstorm concentration period(RCP) are analyzed by using the methods of Monte Carlo test etc. The results are shown as follows. The rainstorm events are concentrated in April-September, taking up about 90% of the yearly rainfall total, and the percentages of rainstorms in the annual total precipitation have an increasing tendency. RCD in the east of Guangxi is larger than that in the west. The RCP in the northeast and southwest of Guangxi is later than that in the other regions, and has the earliest onset in the northern mountainous regions of Baise and southeast Guangxi. The RCD exhibits an increasing tendency in the northwest and the coastal region while showing a decreasing tendency in the other regions. On a long-term basis, the RCP in the east and coastal region has a postponing trend but tends to be earlier in the other regions. The proposed mechanism is as follows: If the geopotential height in the south of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the West Pacific has a highly negative anomaly in winter, the western Pacific subtropical high will be strong in summer, which increases the RCD in Guangxi. If the geopotential height has a highly positive anomaly in winter, the subtropical high will have a significant periodic oscillation in summer, which decreases the RCD in Guangxi. The value of RCD is high(low) in the area of northern mountainous regions of Guangxi and Beihai in strong(weak) South China Sea summer monsoon years, while in the other areas, the value of RCD is low(high).

DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.

Risk Assessment and Service Benefit Evaluation of Forestry Meteorological Disasters in Guangxi

In order to strengthen the construction of forestry meteorological service capacity and improve the quality of forestry meteorological services,the national forestry meteorological disaster risk survey and service benefit assessment were carried out from November 2016 to May2017. A total of 196 risk sites in Guangxi were collected by means of questionnaire survey,expert evaluation and field survey. The results showed that fire,pest and wind hazards are the main types of risk points in Guangxi. The survey showed that there were 77 monitoring stations around the disaster risk sites belonging to the Forestry Sector,which mainly monitor fire hazards,while other disasters had no monitoring point yet. Early warning facilities were still constantly improving. The meteorological disasters that affecting forestry production were drought,gale,and heavy rainfall,and the main meteorological hazard factors were temperature,wind speed,and precipitation. Forest fire prevention,forestry resources development and utilization,forestation and tending demand for meteorological services were relatively large. It was hoped that forestry meteorological service products would be obtained through telephone,SMS and early warning systems. In addition,experts objectivly evaluated the contribution rate of meteorological services in Guangxi. The contribution rate of forest meteorological services in the whole region was8. 41%. The scale of Guangxi's total forestry output value was 31. 478 billion yuan in 2016. According to the calculation of this value,the service benefit value had reached 2. 647 billion yuan. In conclusion,strengthening the cooperation in forestry meteorological monitoring,technology development,and emergency response,and further improving forestry meteorological services and effective reducing forestry disaster losses are the top priorities of the meteorological department.

PREDICTION AND UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA DURING 21ST CENTURY UNDER RCPS

Based on integrated simulations of 26 global climate models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP), this study predicts changes in temperature and precipitation across China in the 21 st century under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs), and analyzes uncertainties of the predictions using Taylor diagrams. Results show that increases of average annual temperature in China using three RCPs(RCP2.6, RCP4.5,RCP8.5) are 1.87 ℃, 2.88 ℃ and 5.51 ℃, respectively. Increases in average annual precipitation are 0.124, 0.214, and 0.323 mm/day, respectively. The increased temperature and precipitation in the 21 st century are mainly contributed by the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China. Uncertainty analysis shows that most CMIP5 models could predict temperature well, but had a relatively large deviation in predicting precipitation in China in the 21 st century. Deviation analysis shows that more than 80% of the area of China had stronger signals than noise for temperature prediction;however, the area proportion that had meaningful signals for precipitation prediction was less than 20%. Thus, the multi-model ensemble was more reliable in predicting temperature than precipitation because of large uncertainties of precipitation.

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DECADAL VARIATIONS OF ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON PRECIPITATION OF GUANGXI AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF INDIAN OCEAN IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

Decadal circulation differences between more and less rainfall periods in the annually first rainy season of Guangxi and their association with sea surface temperature (SST) of the austral Indian Ocean are investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results are shown as follows. A pattern in which there is uniform change of the Guangxi precipitation shows a 20-year decadal oscillation and a 3-year interannual change. In contrast, a pattern of reversed-phase change between the north and the south of Guangxi has a 6-year interannual periodicity and quasi-biennial oscillation. In the period of more precipitation, the surface temperature in Eurasia is positively anomalous so as to lead to stronger low pressure systems on land and larger thermal contrast between land and ocean. Therefore, the air column is more unstable and ascending flows over Guangxi are intensified while the Hadley cell is weakened. Furthermore, the weaker western Pacific subtropical high and South Asia High, together with a stronger cross-equatorial flow, result in the transportation of more humidity and the appearance of more precipitation. The correlation analysis indicates that the Indian Ocean SST in Southern Hemisphere is closely associated with the variation of the seasonal precipitation of Guangxi on the decadal scale by influencing the Asian monsoon through the cross-equatorial flow.

Temperature Changes in Typical Karst Area of Guangxi to Global Warming during 1971- 2013

The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of temperature were analyzed by using climate tendency coefficient, climatic inclination rate and Mann-Kendall catastrophe test,based on the annual and seasonal average temperatures of 28 meteorological stations in Guangxi from 1971 to 2013. Under the global warming,the annual and seasonal average temperatures in typical karst area of Guangxi had an increasing trend. The cli- mate inclination rate of annual average temperature reached a significant level, which was about 0.17 ℃/10 a, and the year of abrupt changes ap- peared in 1996. About seasonal temperature＇s trend, average temperatures of all the four seasons had an increase trend in the past 43 years, and the significant increase was happened in autumn with the temperature increase rate of 0.28 ℃/10 a, followed by increase rate of average tempera- ture in winter with 0.25 ℃/10 a. A long-term warming tendency was observed by seasonal average temperature from 1971 to 2013, especially dur- ing 2002 - 2013.

Variation Characteristics of Low Temperature and Rainy Weather in Guangxi during Spring Sowing Period of Recent 50 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period of recent 50 years.[Method] Based on the daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2010 at 88 meteorological stations in Guangxi,yearly days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather during spring sowing period were carried out statistics.The variation characteristics of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period of recent 50 years were analyzed by using linear tendency calculation,phased analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and correlation analysis.Moreover,the influences of climate warming on days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather in spring sowing period were analyzed.[Result] The average days of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period from 1961 to 2010 was during 3.5-23.2 d.The regional distribution characteristics were that it was more in northeast and mountain zone,and less in southwest and valley.The regional distribution characteristics of end date were that it was late in northeast and mountain zone,and early in southwest and valley.The days of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period of recent 50 years presented slight decrease trend,and the end date presented slight advancing trend.The phased variation characteristics of days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather were obvious.The days of low temperature and rainy weather from the early 1980s to metaphase of 1990s was obviously more,and the end date was obviously later.After the 1990s,the days of low temperature and rainy weather was obviously less,and the end date was obviously earlier.The days of low temperature and rainy weather had periodic oscillation signals of 4,6,8,10-14 years.The end date had periodic oscillation signals of 6,12-14 years.The days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period significantly related to average temperature from middle dekad of February to first dekad of April.The climate warming made that the days of low temperature and rainy weather tended to decrease,and the end date tended to advance.[Conclusion] The research provided reference for further understanding the occurrence rule of low temperature and rainy weather,going after profits and avoiding disadvantages,reasonably arranging production,carrying out correlated research.

Design and Development of System Platform of "Study on Relationship between Natural Phenology and Climate Change" Based on WEB and GIS

[Objective] The research aimed to study design and development of system platform of 'study on relationship between natural phenology and climate change' based on WEB and GIS. [Method] Relied on the technologies of WEB and GIS, a set of system platform of 'study on relationship between natural phenology and climate change' was developed based on the hybrid architecture of C/S (Client/Server) and B/S (Browser/Server). Moreover, its establishing process and functional module were detailedly introduced. [Result] The natural phenology and climate change in Guangxi were research objects of system platform of 'study on relationship between natural phenology and climate change'. By combining WEB and GIS with database, the primary application of 'study on relationship between natural phenology and climate change' was realized. The system used hybrid architecture of C/S and B/S. The four-layer architectures were independent to improve security, stability and maintainability of system. The visual interface on the foreground was simply, clear and easy to use. The generating program of GIS three-dimensional graph on the background was real-time and high-efficiency, providing powerful guarantee for stable and safe operation of phenology research work process. The system had functions of inquiry, analysis, statistical diagram, GIS three-dimensional graph and data export. Through the analysis of natural phenology observation data, the system could find variation rule of natural phenology as three-dimensional space (longitude, latitude and altitude) and its relationship with climate change. [Conclusion] The research laid good foundation for further deeply carrying out application of 'study on relationship between natural phenology and climate change', and also provided reference basis for recognizing nature and using change rule of phenology to execute production scheduling and strategic decision (seed-introduction and regionalization).

Asymmetric Response of the South China Sea SST to El Nio and La Nia

The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature （SST） in the South China Sea （SCS） is investigated according to its relationship with E1 Nifio/La Nifia （EN/LN） using monthly products from ICOADS. The SCS SST bears two peaks associated with EN/LN and shows the asymmetric features. Coinciding with the mature phase of EN/LN, the first SST warming/cooling peaks in December（0）-February（1） （DJF（1）） and centers in the southern part. The major difference is in the amplitude associated with the strength of EN/LN. However, the SCS SST anomaly shows distinct difference after the mature phase of EN/LN. The EN SST warm- ing develops a mid-summer peak in June-August（1） （JJA（1）） and persists up to September-October（l）, with the same amplitude of the first warming peak. Whereas the LN SST cooling peaks in May（l）, it decays slowly until the end of the year, with amplitude much weaker. Comparing with SST and atmospheric circulations, the weak response and early termination of the second cooling is due to the failure of the cyclonic wind anomalies to develop in the northwest Pacific during JJA（1）.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MAINTENANCE AND INCREASE IN HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE LANDING TROPICAL STORM BILIS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LOWER LATITUDES

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) tropical cyclone tracks and intensive surface observations are used to diagnose the features of moisture transport of tropical storm Bilis(No. 0604), which is simulated by the WRF(weather research and forecasting) mesoscale numerical model. It is shown that the Bilis was linked with the moisture channel in the lower latitudes after its landing. Meanwhile, the cross-equatorial flows over 80°-100°E and Somali were active and brought abundant water vapor into the tropical storm, facilitating the maintenance of the landing storm with intensified heavy rainfall along its path. The simulation suggested that the decreased water vapor from lower latitudes prevents the maintenance of Bilis and the development of rainfall. While the cross-equatorial flows over 80°-100°E and Somali were in favor of keeping the cyclonic circulation over land. If the moisture supply fro m the Somali jet stream was reduced, the strength and area of heavy rainfall in tropical cyclone would be remarkably weakened. Consequently, the decreased water vapor from lower latitudes can remarkably suppress the deep convection in tropical storm, then Bilis was damped without the persistent energy support and the rainfall was diminished accordingly.

ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF PROPAGATION OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR OBSERVED ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL SYNOPTIC WAVES IN THE ASIAN-WESTERN PACIFIC REGION IN BOREAL SUMMER

Using the daily average outgoing longwave radiation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in boreal summer(Mays to Octobers)from 1979 to 2007,the propagating characteristics of convection intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs)in the Asian-western Pacific(AWP)region and the relationship between tropical synoptic waves and ISOs are examined by means of finite-domain wavenumber-frequency energy spectrum analysis and lagged linear regression technique.The results are shown as follows.(1)The AWP ISOs propagate both eastward and westward,showing seasonality and regionality.The ISOs propagate eastward with a period of 30 to 60 days over equatorial regions in the whole AWP region,while the westward propagation occurs over 10 to 20°N western Pacific or in the late summers(August,September and October) with periods of 20 to 40 days.The ISOs eastward propagation mainly occurs in primary summers while the westward propagation enhances in late summers.(2)Deep ISO convections associate with westerly and cyclonic circulation anomalies that first form in the Indian Ocean,propagate eastward to the dateline in the Pacific and then turn northwestward.The ISOs convections show northwestward propagating characteristics in the western North Pacific.(3)The ISOs link with the tropical synoptic waves closely.Both convection signals,though with different spatio-temporal scale,enhance simutaneously in the northwestern Pacific,and the ISOs facilitate the forming of a cluster of tropical cyclones(TCs),while a cluster of TCs convection becomes one portion of the northwestward ISOs.

THE ABRUPT CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBER OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN THE MID-1990s

Based on the CMA tropical cyclone(TC) best track data as well as the reanalysis datasets from the NCEP/NCAR and NOAA, the variation characteristics of TC number from 1949 to 2013 over the western North Pacific(including the South China Sea) are examined. Notably, the time series of TC number exhibits a significant abrupt change from more to less around 1995. Comparative analysis indicates that the environmental factors necessary to TC formation also change significantly around the mid-1990 s. After 1995, accompanying with anomalous warm sea surface temperature(SST) in western equatorial Pacific, a La Nia-like pattern in tropical Pacific appears obviously. However,compared with the period before 1995, the vertical upward movement decreases, vertical shear of tropospheric zonal wind increases, and sea level pressure(SLP) rises, all of which are unfavorable to TC formation and work together to make TC number reduce markedly after 1995. Furthermore, when the typical interannual more and less TCs years are selected in the two separate stages before and after 1995, the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric environments in interannual TC generation is also investigated respectively. The results imply that the SST over the tropical Pacific exerts relatively important influence on TC formation before 1995 whereas the atmospheric circulation plays a more prominent role in the generation of TC after 1995.

From China’s Heavy Precipitation in 2020 to a “Glocal” Hydrometeorological Solution for Flood Risk Prediction

The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.

INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS IN ASIA TO WESTERN PACIFIC REGION IN BOREAL SUMMER:CONTRASTIVE ANALYSIS FOR ACTIVE AND INACTIVE YEARS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

Comparative analysis is carried out by using finite-domain power spectrum and lagged regression methods for the propagating characteristics and air-sea interaction processes of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in the Asia to western Pacific (AWP) region during the boreal summer between the active and inactive tropical cyclone (TC) years from 1979 to 2004.The results show as follows.(1) There exist more significant eastward propagating characteristics of the ISO in the active TC years over the whole AWP region.The ISOs of convection propagate zonally with more eastward extension in the years with active tropical cyclone activities,during which the 20-60-day period is strengthened,western Pacific becomes an area with evident characteristics of the propagation that is closely related to TC activities.(2) The air-sea interaction processes are the same in both active and inactive TC years,and the energy exchanges between the air and the sea play a role in maintaining the northwestward propagation of ISOs.(3) The air-sea interaction is more intensive in the active TC years than in the inactive ones.It is particularly true for the latent heat release by condensation as the result of convection,which may be one of the reasons resulting in significant differences in characteristics of ISOs between the active and inactive TC years.

Inter-hemispheric comparison of climate change in thelast millennium based on the ECHO-G simulation

The commonality and difference in the variations of temperature and precipitation between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemispheres (SH) in the last millennium are investigated by analysis of the millennium simulation with the ECHO-G coupled climate model. The NH mean temperature variations are generally consistent with those of the SH counterpart on the interannual, decadal and centennial time scales. But, the transition times between the medieval warm period (MWP), the little ice age (LIA), and the present-day warm period (PWP) in the NH leads that in the SH; and the anomaly amplitude in the NH is significantly larger than the SH counterpart. For the precipitation variations, the NH mean precipitation varies in-phase with the SH mean precipitation on decadal and centennial scales (mainly in the mid-high latitudes) but out-of-phase on the interannual scale (mainly in the low latitudes). During the MWP the warming has comparable amplitude in the NH and SH; however, during the PWP the NH warming is considerably stronger than the SH warming. Further, the present-day temperature rises in the NH high latitudes but decreases in the SH high latitudes, which is very different from the warming pattern during the MWP. Since during the MWP the greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration stayed at a low level, we infer that the present-day opposite temperature tendency in the high latitudes between the two hemispheres may be related to the increase of the GHG concentration.

Variation and future trends in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region

This study analyzed the changes in precipita- tion over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region of China, and undertook a composite analysis of the atmo- spheric circulations in the troposphere, which included an analysis of the interannual and interdecadal variations. This paper examines in detail the circulation backgrounds of the wet and dry periods in summer and autumn and their correlations with the sea surface temperature. The results indicated that the summer and autumn precipitation across Yunnan has significantly decreased over the past 50 years. Furthermore, since the beginning of the century, the summer and autumn precipitation cycle has been in a low precipitation phase. The overlap of two extremely low rain phases has caused frequent droughts in the region. In addition, the atmospheric circulation fields during these wet and dry periods are very different. These are mainly shown as a meridional wind anomaly in eastern China in the low atmosphere, as a cross-equatorial airflow anomaly, a tropical zonal wind anomaly over the Indian Ocean, and as a related South Asia High and Western Pacific Subtropical High. Further analysis suggested that the SST over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific warm pool critically affect the anomalous summer and autumn precipitation over Yunnan by impacting the monsoon circulations. Future projections for greenhouse gas wann- ing suggest a potential anomalous circulation background between 2010 and 2020 which may result in less precipitation during the wet season or even drought events across the Yunnan region.

Ensemble Prediction of Monsoon Index with a Genetic Neural Network Model

After the consideration of the nonlinear nature changes of monsoon index,and the subjective determination of network structure in traditional artificial neural network prediction modeling,monthly and seasonal monsoon intensity index prediction is studied in this paper by using nonlinear genetic neural network ensemble prediction（GNNEP）modeling.It differs from traditional prediction modeling in the following aspects： （1）Input factors of the GNNEP model of monsoon index were selected from a large quantity of preceding period high correlation factors,such as monthly sea temperature fields,monthly 500-hPa air temperature fields,monthly 200-hPa geopotential height fields,etc.,and they were also highly information-condensed and system dimensionality-reduced by using the empirical orthogonal function（EOF）method,which effectively condensed the useful information of predictors and therefore controlled the size of network structure of the GNNEP model.（2）In the input design of the GNNEP model,a mean generating function（MGF）series of predictand（monsoon index）was added as an input factor;the contrast analysis of results of predic- tion experiments by a physical variable predictor-predictand MGF GNNEP model and a physical variable predictor GNNEP model shows that the incorporation of the periodical variation of predictand（monsoon index）is very effective in improving the prediction of monsoon index.（3）Different from the traditional neural network modeling,the GNNEP modeling is able to objectively determine the network structure of the GNNNEP model,and the model constructed has a better generalization capability.In the case of identical predictors,prediction modeling samples,and independent prediction samples,the prediction accuracy of our GNNEP model combined with the system dimensionality reduction technique of predictors is clearly higher than that of the traditional stepwise regression model using the traditional treatment technique of predictors,suggesting that the GNNEP model opens up a vast range of possibilities for operational weather prediction.