Differences and similarities in radial growth of Betula species to climate change

Betula platyphylla and Betula costata are important species in mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests.However,the specific ways in which their growth is affected by warm temperatures and drought remain unclear.To address this issue,60 and 62 tree-ring cores of B.platyphylla and B.costata were collected in Yichun,China.Using dendrochronological methods,the response and adaptation of these species to climate change were examined.A“hysteresis effect”was found in the rings of both species,linked to May–September moisture conditions of the previous year.Radial growth of B.costata was positively correlated with the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the precipitation from September to October of the previous year,and the relative humidity in October of the previous year.Growth of B.costata is primarily restricted by moisture conditions from September to October.In contrast,B.platyphylla growth is mainly limited by minimum temperatures in May–June of both the previous and current years.After droughts,B.platyphylla had a faster recovery rate compared to B.costata.In the context of rising temperatures since 1980,the correlation between B.platyphylla growth and monthly SPEI became positive and strengthened over time,while the growth of B.costata showed no conspicuous change.Our findings suggest that the growth of B.platyphylla is already affected by warming temperatures,whereas B.costata may become limited if warming continues or intensifies.Climate change could disrupt the succession of these species,possibly accelerating the succession of pioneer species.The results of this research are of great significance for understanding how the growth changes of birch species under warming and drying conditions,and contribute to understanding the structural adaptation of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests under climate change.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICABILITY OF FUZZY CLUSTERING IN ESTABLISHING AN INDEX FOR THE EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE SATISFACTION

An evaluation index is a prerequisite for the scientific evaluation of a public meteorological service.This paper aims to explore a technical method for determining and screening evaluation indicators.Based on public satisfaction survey data obtained in Wafangdian,China in 2010,this study investigates the suitability of fuzzy clustering analysis method in establishing an evaluation index.Through quantitative analysis of multilayer fuzzy clustering of various evaluation indicators,correlation analysis indicates that if the results of clustering were identical for two evaluation indicators in the same sub-evaluation layer,then one indicator could be removed,or the two indicators merged.For evaluation indicators in different sub-evaluation layers,although clustering reveals attribute correlations,these indicators may not be substituted for one another.Analysis of the applicability of the fuzzy clustering method shows that it plays a certain role in the establishment and correction of an evaluation index.

Research on Changes in Risk of Chilling Damage to Maize in Heilongjiang Province since 1980

Based on data of daily average temperature observed during maize growing period as well as data of different growing periods of maize at 24 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2010, changes in risk of chilling damage to maize since 1980 were analyzed. Initially, the risk of the hazard factor was calculated by adopting the criterion of ＂Comprehensive Decision System of Chilling Damage to Maize in Heilongjiang Province＂. Then, choosing the planting area of maize at 75 stations as the exposure degree index, risk zones of exposure degree were concluded. Afterwards, risk zones of maize sensitivity to chilling damage were outlined based on maize yield per unit area. At last, a comprehensive evaluation model of chilling damage to maize in Heilongjiang Province was established, and Heilongjiang Province was divided into 5 grades of risk zones according to the model. The results showed that compared with the period before 1995, the risk of chilling damage to maize was severer in the west area of Songnen Plain, and previous sub-low or medium risk of chilling damage to maize in the west of Sanjiang Plain changed into subhigh or hi qh risk since the middle 1980s.

Changes of spring wind erosion based on wind erosion climate factor in the black soil region of Northeast China

The dry and windy climate and low ground cover in spring in the black soil region of Northeast China make the soil strongly affected by wind erosion,which seriously threatens the food security and ecological security of this region.In this paper,based on the daily observation data of 124 meteorological stations in study area from 1961 to 2020,seasonal and monthly wind erosion climate factor(C)in spring(March to May)were calculated by using the method proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO),the wind erosion characterization in spring were systematically analyzed based on C by various statistical analysis methods.The results showed that in the past 60 years,spring wind erosion climate factor(CSp)and monthly C of the whole region and each province(region)all showed highly significant decreasing trend,but they began to show rebounded trend in the middle or late 2000s.CSp of the study area showed a significant upward trend since 2008 with an increase of 4.59(10a)^(-1).The main contributors to this upward trend are the changes of C in March and in April.For the four provinces(regions),CSp in Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning and eastern Inner Mongolia all showed rebounded since 2008,2011,2008 and 2009,respectively.The rebounded trend of CSp in eastern Inner Mongolia was the most obvious with a tendency rate of 11.27(10a)^(-1),and its mutation occurred after 1984.The rebound trend of CSp in Heilongjiang Province takes the second place,with a trend rate of 4.72(10a)^(-1),but there’s no obvious time mutation characteristics.The spatial characteristics of CSpand monthly C are similar,showing decreasing characteristics centered on the typical black soil belt of Northeast China.Compared with 1961-1990,in the period from 1991 to 2020,the proportion of high value areas(CSp>35,monthly C>10)has decreased to varying degrees,while the proportion of low value areas(CSp≤10,monthly C≤4)has increased.The trends of seasonal and monthly C in 82.2%~87.7%of the stations show significant decreases at 95%confidence level.CSp is closely related to wind speed at 2m height,temperature difference,minimum temperature and precipitation in the same period,of which the correlation between CSp and wind speed is the strongest,indicating that the main control factor for CSp in the study area is wind speed,but the impact of the change of temperature and precipitation on CSp cannot be ignored.

Control Mechanisms and Simulation of <i>Populus simonii</i>Leaf Unfolding

Populus simonii Carr., one of the main poplar tree species, is cultivated widely in Northeast and Northwest China in protection and timber forests. Plant phenology plays an important role in timber production by controlling the growing period (i.e., the period between the leaf unfolding and the leaf turning yellow). It is important to understand this control mechanism and to improve the accuracy of the simulation of leaf unfolding phenology for P. simonii in order to determine accurately the timber production of P. simonii plantations. In this study, based on phenological observation data from 10 agricultural meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province, China, model simulation was employed to determine the control mechanism of leaf unfolding of P. simonii. Furthermore, the predicting effects of nine phenology-simulating models for P. simonii leaf unfolding were evaluated and the distribution characteristics of P. simonii leaf unfolding in China in 2015 were simulated. The results show that P. simonii leaf unfolding is sensitive to air temperature;consequently, climate warming could advance the P. simonii leaf unfolding process. The phenological model based on air temperature could be better suited for simulating P. simonii leaf unfolding, with 76.7% of the calibration data of absolute error being less than three days. The performance of the models based solely on forcing requirements was found superior to that of the models incorporating chilling. If it was imperative that the chilling threshold is reached, the south of the Yunnan, Guangdong, and Guangxi provinces would be unsuitable for planting P. simonii. In this regard, the phenology model based on the chilling threshold as necessary condition was indicated a more reasonable model for the distribution characteristics of P. simonii leaf unfolding.

Effects of Sowing Periods on Growth and Development,Yield and Quality of Maize in Cold Area

In order to determine the most suitable sowing periods for maize in the cold area of Harbin City,the field test method was adopted.From 2018 to 2019,the main maize variety Xianyu 696 which was planted in Harbin City,Heilongjiang Province,was used as the test material for the six-sowing-period treatment experiments.The sowing period settings were as the followings:April 20(T1),April 24(T2),April 27(T3),May 4(T4),May 11(T5)and May 18(T6).In the experiment,the effects of different sowing periods on the growth and development,yields and quality of maize were studied.The results showed that the maize through T1 treatment had the longest growth period,the lowest height and the highest ear height,and the highest grain protein content.The maize through T6 treatment had the highest height and ear height,as well as the highest starch and oil content.And the grain crude fat,soluble protein,soluble sugar and the moisture content increased and then decreased with the delay of the sowing period.The maize through T4 treatment had the highest content of soluble protein.However,other quality indicators and the number of rows,the length of the bald tip,the number of grains per spike and the weight of 100 grains first increased and then decreased with the delay of the sowing period.The dry matter accumulation through T4 treatment was significantly higher than the ones through five treatments,and the 100-kernel weight and other ear-grain traits were the highest,the maizes through T4 treatment increased the yield by 21.54%compared with that through T1 treatment.Thus,the most suitable sowing period for the maize in the cold area of Harbin City was from May 4 to May 11.It provided technical supports for guiding maize planting in the cold area of Harbin City.

过去300年大兴安岭北部气候变化特征（英文）

The Greater Khingan Mountains(Daxinganling) are China's important ecological protective screen and also the region most sensitive to climate changes. To gain an in-depth understanding and reveal the climate change characteristic in this high-latitude, cold and data-insufficient region is of great importance to maintaining ecological safety and corresponding to global climate changes. In this article, the annual average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration series were firstly constructed using tree-ring data and the meteorological observation data. Then, using the climate tendency rate method, moving-t-testing method, Yamamoto method and wavelet analysis method, we have investigated the climate changes in the region during the past 307 years. Results indicate that, since 1707, the annual average temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly and the sunshine duration decreased, with the tendency rates of 0.06℃/10 a, 0.79 mm/10 a and –5.15 h/10 a, respectively(P≤0.01). Since the 21 st century, the period with the greatest increase of the annual average temperature(also with the greatest increase of precipitation) corresponds to the period with greatest decrease of sunshine duration. Three sudden changes of the annual average temperature and sunshine duration occurred in this period while two sudden changes of precipitation occurred. The strong sudden-change years of precipitation and sunshine duration are basically consistent with the sudden-change years of annual average temperature, suggesting that in the mid-1860 s, the climatic sudden change or transition really existed in this region. In the time domain, the climatic series of this region exhibit obvious local variation characteristics. The annual average temperature and sunshine duration exhibit the periodic variations of 25 years while the precipitation exhibits a periodic variation of 20 years. Based on these periodic characteristics, one can infer that in the period from 2013 to 2030, the temperature will be at a high-temperature stage, the precipitation will be at an abundant-precipitation stage and the sunshine duration will be at an less-sunshine stage. In terms of spatial distribution, the leading distribution type of the annual average temperature in this region shows integrity, i.e., it is easily higher or lower in the whole region; and the second distribution type is more(or less) in the southwest parts and less(or more) in the northeast parts. Precipitation and sunshine duration exhibit complex spatial distribution and include fourspatial distribution types. The present study can provide scientific basis for the security investigation of homeland, ecological and water resources as well as economic development programming in China's northern borders.

中国东北地区自然植被水分利用效率对干旱的响应（英文）

Drought has become a problem that is universally faced by global terrestrial ecosystems. Northeast China is located in a region sensitive to global climate changes, and one of the main impacts of climate changes in Northeast China is manifested as drought in growing seasons. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution law of the water use efficiency(WUE) of the main natural vegetation(i.e., cold-temperate coniferous forests, temperate pine-broad-leaved mixed forests, warm-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests, and grasslands) in Northeast China based on public MODIS data products, including MCD12 Q1, MOD15 A2 H, MOD16 A2, and MOD17 A3 H, and meteorological data from 2002 to 2013. The influence of drought events on the WUE of different vegetation types and their response to drought events are also investigated. The study findings are as follows:(1) drought in Northeast China frequently occurs in the regions stretching from 114.55°E to 120.90°E, and the percentage of drought area among the forests is lower than that among the grasslands during these years;(2) the annual average WUE of the natural vegetation ranges from 0.82 to 1.08 C/kg^(-1) H_2O, and the WUE of forests(0.82 to 1.08 C/kg^(-1) H_2O) is universally higher than that of grasslands(0.84 to 0.99 C/kg^(-1) H_2O);(3) in 2008, the regions where the WUE in drought conditions is higher than that in normal water conditions account for 86.11% of the study area, and a significant linear positive correlation is found between the WUE in drought conditions and the WUE in normal water conditions, whereas the degree of drought does not influence the WUE of the natural vegetation in an obviously linear manner; and(4) the WUE for the cold-temperate coniferous forests and temperate pine-broad-leaved mixed forests with a high ET or low NPP is more likely to rise in drought conditions; the WUE for the grasslands with a low Evapotranspiration(ET), Net Primary Production(NPP), and Leaf Area Index(LAI) is more likely to rise in drought conditions; and the ET, NPP, and LAI have no significant influence on the WUE for the warm-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests in drought conditions. This study contributes to improving the evaluation of the influence of drought on natural ecosystems.

气候变化背景下扎龙湿地固碳潜力评估

Wetland ecosystems are crucial to the global carbon cycle.In this study,the Zhalong Wetland was investigated.Based on remote sensing and meteorological observation data from 1975-2018 and the downscaled fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project(CMIP5)climate projection dataset from 1961-2100,the parameters of a net primary productivity(NPP)climatic potential productivity model were adjusted,and the simulation ability of the CMIP5 coupled models was evaluated.On this basis,we analysed the spatial and temporal variations of land cover types and landscape transformation processes in the Zhalong Nature Reserve over the past 44 years.We also evaluated the influence of climate change on the NPP of the vegetation,microbial heterotrophic respiration(Rh),and net ecosystem productivity(NEP)of the Zhalong Wetland and predicted the carbon sequestration potential of the Zhalong Wetland from 2019-2029 under the representative concentration pathways(RCP)4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.Our results indicate the following:(1)Herbaceous bog was the primary land cover type of the Zhalong Nature Reserve,occupying an average area of 1168.02±224.05 km^(2),equivalent to 51.84% of the total reserve area.(2)Since 1975,the Zhalong Nature Reserve has undergone a dry-wet-dry transformation process.Excluding several wet periods during the mid-1980s to early 1990s,the reserve has remained a dry habitat,with particularly severe conditions from 2000 onwards.(3)The 1975-2018 mean NPP,Rh,and NEP values of the Zhalong Wetland were 500.21±52.76,337.59±10.80,and 162.62±45.56 gC·m^(2)·a^(-1),respectively,and an evaluation of the carbon balance indicated that the reserve served as a carbon sink.(4)From 1975-2018,NPP showed a significant linear increase,Rh showed a highly significant linear increase,while the increase in the carbon absorption rate was smaller than the increase in the carbon release rate.(5)Variations in NPP and NEP were precipitation-driven,with the correlations of NPP and NEP with annual precipitation and summer precipitation being highly significantly positive(P<0.001);variations in Rh were temperature-driven,with the correlations of Rh with the average annual,summer,and autumn temperatures being highly significantly positive(P<0.001).The interaction of precipitation and temperature enhances the impact on NPP,Rh and NEP.(6)Under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios,the predicted carbon sequestration by the Zhalong Wetland from 2019-2029 was 2.421(±0.225)× 10^(11) gC·a^(-1) and 2.407(±0.382)× 10^(11)gC·a^(-1),respectively,which were both lower than the mean carbon sequestration during the last 44 years(2.467(±0.950)× 10^(11) gC·a^(-1)).Future climate change may negatively contribute to the carbon sequestration potential of the Zhalong Wetland.The results of the present study are significant for enhancing the abilities of integrated eco-meteorological moni-toring,evaluation,and early warning systems for wetlands.

过去百年松嫩平原农田扩张的干旱效应

The effects of human activities on climate change are a significant area of research in the field of global environmental change.Land use and land cover change(LUCC)has a greater effect on climate than greenhouse gases,and the effect of farmland expansion on regional drought is particularly important.From the 1910s to the 2010s,cultivated land in Songnen Plain increased by 2.67 times,the area of cultivated land increased from 4.92×10^4 km^2 to 13.14×10^4 km^2,and its percentage of all land increased from 25%to 70%.This provides an opportunity to study the effects of the conversion of natural grassland to farmland on climate.In this study,the drought indices in Songnen Plain were evaluated from the 1910s to the 2010s,and the effect of farmland expansion on drought was investigated using statistical methods and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model based on UK’s Climatic Research Unit data.The resulting dryness index,Palmer drought severity index,and standardized precipitation index values indicated a significant drying trend in the study area from 1981 to 2010.This trend can be attributed to increases in maximum temperature and diurnal temperature range,which increased the degree of drought.Based on statistical analysis and simulation,the maximum temperature,diurnal temperature range,and sensible heat flux increased during the growing season in Songnen Plain over the past 100 years,while the minimum temperature and latent heat flux decreased.The findings indicate that farmland expansion caused a drying trend in Songnen Plain during the study period.