Predictions of future hydrological conditions and contribution of snow and ice melt in total discharge of Shigar River Basin in Central Karakoram,Pakistan

The high mountains of Hindu-Kush Karakoram and Himalaya(HKKH) contain a large volume of snow and ice, which are the primary sources of water for the entire mountainous population of HKKH. Thus, knowledge of these available resources is very important in relation to their sustainable use. A Modified Positive Degree Day Model was used to simulate daily discharge with the contribution of snow and ice melt from the Shigar River Basin, Central Karakoram, Pakistan. The basin covers an area of 6,921 km2 with an elevation range of 2,204 to 8,611 m a.s.l.. Forty percent of the total area is glaciated among which 20% is covered by debris and remaining 80% by clean ice and permanent snow. To simulate daily discharge, the entire basin was divided into 26 altitude belts. Remotely sensed land cover types are derived by classifying Landsat images of 2009. Daily temperature and precipitation from Skardu meteorological station is used to calibrate the glacio-hydrological model as an input variable after correlating data with the Shigar station data(r=0.88). Local temperature lapse rate of 0.0075 °C/m is used. 2 °C critical temperature is used to separate rain and snow from precipitation. The model is calibrated for 1988~1991 and validated for 1992~1997. The model shows a good Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and volume difference in calibration(0.86% and 0.90%) and validation(0.78% and 6.85%). Contribution of snow and ice melt in discharge is 32.37% in calibration period and 33.01% is validation period. The model is also used to predict future hydrological regime up to 2099 by using CORDEX South Asia RCM considering RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios.Predicted future snow and ice melt contributions in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 36% and 37%, respectively. Temperature seems to be more sensitive as compared to other input variables, which is why the contribution of snow and ice in discharge varies significantly throughout the whole century.

Study of thermal properties of supraglacial debris and degree-day factors on Lirung Glacier,Nepal

The extensive debris that covers glaciers in the ablation zone of the Himalayan region plays an important part in regulating ablation rates and water availability for the downstream region. The melt rate of ice is determined by the amount of heat conducted through debris material lying over the ice. This study presents the vertical temperature gradients, thermal properties in terms of thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity, and positive degree-day factors for the debris-covered portion of Lirung Glacier in Langtang Valley, Nepal Himalaya using field-based measurements from three different seasons.Field measurements include debris temperatures at different debris thicknesses, air temperature, and ice melt during the monsoon(2013), winter(2013), and pre-monsoon(2014) seasons. We used a thermal equation to estimate thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity, and degree-day factors(DDF) were calculated from cumulative positive temperature and ice melt of the measurement period. Our analysis of debris temperature profiles at different depths of debris show the daily linear gradients of-20.81 °C/m, 4.05 °C/m, and-7.79 °C/m in the monsoon, winter, and pre-monsoon seasons, respectively. The values of thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity in the monsoon season were 10 times greater than in the winter season. The large difference in these values is attributed to surface temperature and moisture content within the debris. Similarly, we found higher values of DDFs at thinner debris for the pre-monsoon season than in the monsoon season although we observed less melting during the pre-monsoon season. This is attributed to higher cumulative temperature during the monsoon season than in the pre-monsoon season. Our study advances our understanding of heat conductivity through debris material in different seasons, which supports estimating ice melt and discharge from glacierized river basins with debris-covered glaciers in the Himalayan region.

Study of annual mass balance(2011–2013) of Rikha Samba Glacier, Hidden Valley, Mustang, Nepal

Although Himalayan glaciers are of particular interest in terms of future water supplies, regional climate changes, andsea-level rises, little is known about them due to lack of reliable and consistent data. There is a need for monitoring theseglaciers to bridge this knowledge gap and to provide field measurements necessary to calibrate and validate the resultsfrom different remote sensing operations. Therefore, glaciological observations have been carried out by the CryosphereMonitoring Project （CMP） since September 2011 on Rikha Samba Glacier in Hidden valley, Mustang district in westernNepal in order to study its annual mass balance. This paper presents the first results of that study. There are 10 glaciers inHidden Valley, named G1, G2, G3, up to G10. Of these, G5 is the Rikha Samba Glacier, which has the largest area （5.37km2） in this valley and the highest and lowest altitudes （6,476 and 5,392 m a.s.l., respectively）. The glacier mass balancediscussed in this paper was calculated using the glaciological method and the equilibrium line altitude （ELA）. The glaciershowed a negative annual point mass balance along the longitudinal profile of its lower part from September 10, 2011 toOctober 3, 2012. Stake measurements from October 4, 2012 to September 30, 2013 indicated a negative areal average ofannual mass balance ？0.088±0.019 m w.e. for the whole glacier. Based on these observations, the ELA of the Rikha SambaGlacier is estimated at 5,800 m a.s.l. in 2013. This negative balance may be due to rising air temperatures in the region,which have been incrementally rising since 1980 accompanied by little or no significant increase in precipitation in thatperiod. The negative mass balance confirms the general shrinking trend of the glacier.

Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan

The multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change.This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge.This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin(SRB)under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM)and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM).Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988–1992 and 1993–1997.Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor,temperature,and precipitation gradients.The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment.However,MPDDM estimated 68%of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon,while GDM estimated 14%rain and baseflow contribution.Likewise,MPDDM calculated 32%,and GDM generated 86%of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt.MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation,respectively.Similarly,GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period.The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB,and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability.Based on the sensitivity analysis,both models’outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature.Furthermore,compared to MPDDM,GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios,RCP4.5 and 8.5,mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change.The integration of an updated melt module and two reservoir baseflow module in GDM is anticipated to advance the representation of hydrological components,unlike one reservoir baseflow module used separately in MPDDM.The restructured melt and baseflow modules in GDM have fundamentally enriched our perception of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the catchment.

Effect of debris on seasonal ice melt (2016−2018) on Ponkar Glacier, Manang, Nepal

Supraglacial debris is widely present on glaciers in alpine environments and its distribution greatly affects glacier melt.The present study aims to determine the effect of debris on glacier ice melt on Ponkar Glacier,Manang District,Nepal.We estimated ice melt under various debris thickness using Energy Balance(EB)model and conductive heat flux methods,which are compared with in-situ observations.Four stakes are installed on the glacier at different debris thickness of 11−40 cm.Meteorological data from March 2016 to May 2018 are obtained from the Automatic Weather Station(AWS)installed on the glacier surface at an elevation of 3,881 m a.s.l.for the energy balance calculation.Debris surface temperature and different debris depths are also measured on the glacier.The calculated ablation rates from the conductive heat flux method are 0.9,1.62 and 0.41 cm/d on pre-monsoon,monsoon and post-monsoon,respectively,with mean debris thermal conductivity 1.04 W/(m∙K).The net radiation shows little variation between the seasons,while turbulent heat flux varies in the season.Sensible heat flux was found to be highest in post-monsoon season due to a larger temperature gradient between surface and air.

Assessment of Sediment Load of Langtang River in Rasuwa District, Nepal

This paper assesses the sediment load of the glacier fed Langtang River, Nepal from April 2014 to March 2015. Water samples were collected from the centre of the river with a frequency of two samples per each sampling day using the Depth Integration Technique (DIT) on daily basis in the monsoon season, weekly in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons and bi-monthly in the winter season. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is calculated from the water samples using filtration followed by oven-drying, and a rating curve is used to calculate daily discharge of the Langtang River. The annual sediment yield is 109,276.75 tons and 37.69, 11.52 and 5.54 tons of sediment is transported per day in the pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. There is a very high value of 872.86 tons per day in the monsoon season, which contributes the highest sediment load among all of the seasons comprising 83% of the total sediment transport. Diurnal cycle of sediment discharge is clearly seen with higher sediment discharge during the evening than the morning and reaching maximum values of 41.1 kg·s-1 and 61.5 kg·s-1, respectively. A clock-wise hysteresis loop has been obtained for discharge and sediment discharge where sediment flux is higher in the early monsoon than in the late monsoon for a corresponding discharge.