Statistical Analysis for Assessing Randomness, Shift and Trend in Rainfall Time Series under Climate Variability and Change: Case of Senegal

The main purpose of this study is to assess the climate variability and change through statistical processing tools that able to highlight annual and monthly rainfall behavior between 1970 and 2010 in six strategical raingauges located in northern (Saint-Louis, Bakel), central (Dakar, Kaolack), and southern (Ziguinchor, Tambacounda) part of Senegal. Further, differences in sensitivity of statistical tests are also exhibited by applying several tests rather than a single one to check for one behavior. Dependency of results from statistical tests on studied sequence in time series is also shown comparing results of tests applied on two different periods (1970-2010 and 1960-2010). Therefore, between 1970 and 2010, exploratory data analysis is made to give in a visible manner a first idea on rainfall behavior. Then, Statistical characteristics such as the mean, variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis are calculated. Subsequently, statistical tests are applied to all retained time series. Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests allow verifying whether or not annual rainfall observations are independent. Hubert’s procedures of segmentation, Pettitt, Lee Heghinian and Buishand tests allow checking rainfall homogeneity. Trend is undertaken by first employing the annual and seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test, and in case of significance, magnitude of trend is calculated by Sen’s slope estimator tests. All statistical tests are applied in the period of 1960-2010. Explanatory analysis data indicates upwards trends for records in northern and central and trend free for southern records. Application of multiple tests shows that the Kendall and spearman ranks correlation tests lead to same conclusion. The difference in tests sensitivity was shown by outcomes of homogeneity tests giving different results either in dates of the shift occurrence or in the significance of an eventual shift. A synthesis analysis of results of tests was carried out to conclude about rainfall behaviors. Tests for homogeneity show that southern rainfall is homogeneous, while northern and central ones are not. According to trend test, upwards trends in Northern and central rainfall trend free in southern assumption in exploratory data analysis have been confirmed. The Sen’s slop estimator shows that all retained trend can be assumed to linear type. The same test over the period 1960-2010 shows independence of observations in all raingauges and exhibits neither trends nor breaks. This seems to show a return to a wet period.

Simulation of Flood Propagation from the Niandouba Dam Outlet(Kayanga River,Senegal)to the Waïma Lake Inlet Using HEC RAS for Water Resource Management in the AnambéIrrigated Perimeters

Dams are designed for water storage intended to compensate downstream fluctuations that are stabilizing water supply and hydropower production.Hydraulic modelling tools and schemes allow understanding the hydraulic characteristics of the irrigation systems and mitigating uncertainty inherent to dam removals.The construction of the Niandouba dam at the confluence of the Kayanga and Anambérivers(Senegal)has perturbed the natural flow of the AnambéRiver to feed the Waïma Lake and irrigated perimeters.The flow gauges at the Kayanga and AnambéRivers are no longer operational.In this study,the HEC-RAS(Hydrological Engineering Centre River Analysis System)and the RAS Mapper is used to simulate the flow propagation of the Kayanga-Anambéhydraulic system ranging from the Niandouba dam to the entry of Waïma lake.The HEC-RAS modelling enables the estimating of,among other variables,water levels,depths and flow velocities for the different flow configurations and different cross-sectional zones.This study presents a flood mapping of the Kayanga-Anambéhydro system using the RAS Mapper and HEC-RAS hydraulic modelling tools.The study has exhibited the depths at the inlet of the supply channels where the pumping stations are located.

Calibration of HEC-RAS Model for One Dimensional Steady Flow Analysis—A Case of Senegal River Estuary Downstream Diama Dam

The Sahelian regions have experienced a drought that has made them vulnerable to hydro-climatic conditions. Strategies have been developed to reduce this vulnerability. The governments of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali and Guinea have created the Organization for the development of the Senegal River (OMVS in french) with the aim of realizing large hydraulic installations. This resulted in the construction of the Diama and Manantali dams in the Senegal River Basin. The first aims to stop the saline intrusion, the second to regulate the flow of the river, to allow the irrigation of agricultural perimeters, and to produce electrical energy. The impoundment of the Diama dam has modified the hydraulic behavior of the estuary. The purpose of this study is to carry out the hydraulic modeling of the estuary of Senegal river downstream of the Diama Dam in transient mode by the HEC-RAS software. Two geometric models were constructed on the basis of a digital terrain model (DTM) using the Arc-GIS and HEC GeoRAS soft wares after processing the collected topographic data. The first geometric model, of which the areas of Senegal river downstream Diama Dam have been represented by cross-section, is one-dimensional. The second one is also one dimensional;in this model, the area of the Senegal River estuary downstream Diama Dam is introduced as water storage zones. The components of these models are the stream sections, lateral links, and storage areas. The flood hydrograph downstream Diama Dam is introduced as conditions at the upstream limits of the models while the tidal is introduced as a downstream condition. After the stability and calibration, the results given by HEC-RAS simulations are the variations of the water levels, the temporal variations of the flow rates for each section, the maximum flow velocities and the propagation times of the flood waves. The analysis and comparisons of these results strongly suggest using HEC-RAS issues as a decision-making tool helping to manage floods during times of crisis.