The seasonal cycle of the climate of 9000 years before present was simulated with the IAP two-level atmospheric general circulation model. The incoming solar radiation was specified from the orbital parameters for 900...The seasonal cycle of the climate of 9000 years before present was simulated with the IAP two-level atmospheric general circulation model. The incoming solar radiation was specified from the orbital parameters for 9000 years ago. The boundary conditions of that time were prescribed to the present value because of the small differences between the two. The change in radiation makes temperature to be higher in summer and lower in winter over large areas of the land; and the increased temperature contrast between the land and the ocean strengthens the summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation over there. The asymmetry of temperature change between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere and between summer and winter still exists, which agrees with that get from the previous perpetual experiments.展开更多
The dynamical framework of the nine-level version of the IAP AGCM is presented in this paper. The emphasis of the model's description is put on the following two aspects:(1) A model's standard atmosphere, whic...The dynamical framework of the nine-level version of the IAP AGCM is presented in this paper. The emphasis of the model's description is put on the following two aspects:(1) A model's standard atmosphere, which is a satisfactory approximation to the observed troposphere and lower stratosphere standard atmosphere, is introduced into the equations of the model to permit a more accurate calculation of the vertical transport terms, especially near the tropopause; (2) The vertical levels of the model are carefully selected to guarantee a smooth dependence of layer thickness upon pressure in order to reduce the truncation error involved in the unequal interval vertical finite-differencing. For testing the model, two kinds of linear baroclinic Rossby-Haurwitz waves, one of which has a dynamically stable vertical structure and the other has a relatively unstable one, are constructed to provide initial conditions for numerical experiments. The two waves have been integrated for more than 300 days and 100 days respectively by using the model and both of them are propagating westward with almost identical phase-speed during the time period of the integrations. No obvious change of the wave patterns is found at the levels in the model's troposphere. The amplitudes of both two waves at the uppermost level, however, exhibit rather significant oscillation with time, of which the periods are exactly 20 days and 25 days espectively.The explanation of this interesting phenomena is still under investigation.展开更多
Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) and summer precipitation over East Asia has been...Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) and summer precipitation over East Asia has been investigated, and compared with observation. It was found the meridional displacement of the EASWJ has a closer relationship with the precipitation over East Asia both from model simulation and observation, with an anomalous southward shift of EASWJ being conducive to rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV), and an anomalous northward shift resulting in less rainfall over the YHRV. However, the simulated precipitation anomalies were found to be weaker than observed from the composite analysis, and this would be related to the weakly reproduced mid-upper-level convergence in the mid-high latitudes and ascending motion in the lower latitudes.展开更多
The Common Land Model(CoLM) was coupled with the IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model(IAPDGVM), and the performance of this combined CoLMIAP model was evaluated. Offline simulations using both the original Common Land ...The Common Land Model(CoLM) was coupled with the IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model(IAPDGVM), and the performance of this combined CoLMIAP model was evaluated. Offline simulations using both the original Common Land Model(CoLM-LPJ) and CoLM-IAP were conducted. The CoLM-IAP coupled model showed a significant improvement over CoLMLPJ, as the deciduous tree distribution decreased over temperate and boreal regions, while the distribution of evergreen trees increased over the tropics. Some biases in CoLM-LPJ were preserved, including the overestimation of evergreen trees in tropical savanna, the underestimation of boreal evergreen trees, and the absence of boreal shrubs. However, most of these biases did not exist in a further coupled simulation of IAP-DGVM with the Community Land Model(CLM), for which the parameters of IAP-DGVM were optimized. This implies that further improvement is needed to deal with the differences between CoLM and CLM in parameterizations of landbased physical and biochemical processes.展开更多
The authors examine extreme summer temperatures over East China during 1984-2004 using a regional climate model named CREM(the Climate version of Regional Eta-coordinate Model),which was developed by LASG/IAP.The resu...The authors examine extreme summer temperatures over East China during 1984-2004 using a regional climate model named CREM(the Climate version of Regional Eta-coordinate Model),which was developed by LASG/IAP.The results show that the main features of the extreme summer temperatures over East China are reproduced well by CREM,and the skill for the minimum temperature is higher than that for the maximum temperature,especially along the Yangtze-Huai River Valley(YHV).The simulated extreme temperatures are lower than those of observation,especially for the maximum temperature.The bias of extreme temperatures is consistent with the cold bias of the climatological mean summer surface air temperature.The skill of the model in simulating the interannual variability of extreme temperatures increases from north to south.The simulated interannual variation of the minimum temperature is more reasonable than the maximum temperature.The underestimation of net solar radiation at the surface leads to a cold bias of the climatological mean temperature.Furthermore,the model underestimates the light and moderate rain,while overestimates heavy rain.It causes the simulated minimum temperature more reasonable than the maximum temperature.展开更多
Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of ...Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation (IAV), and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (cooling) in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude: (1) successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; (2) more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; (3) the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.展开更多
Recent advances in dynamical climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during the last five years have been briefly described in this paper. Firstly, the second ...Recent advances in dynamical climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during the last five years have been briefly described in this paper. Firstly, the second generation of the IAP dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-Ⅱ) has been described, and two sets of hindcast experiments of the summer rainfall anomalies over China for the periods of 1980-1994 with different versions of the IAP AGCM have been conducted. The comparison results show that the predictive skill of summer rainfall anomalies over China is improved with the improved IAP AGCM in which the surface albedo parameterization is modified. Furthermore, IAP DCP-II has been applied to the real-time prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over China since 1998, and the verification results show that IAP DCP-II can quite well capture the large scale patterns of the summer flood/drought situations over China during the last five years (1998-2002). Meanwhile, an investigation has demonstrated the importance of the atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal climate prediction, along with studies on the influences from surface boundary conditions (e.g., land surface characteristics, sea surface temperature). Certain conclusions have been reached, such as, the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring may play an important role in the summer climate anomalies, and soil moisture anomalies in spring can also have a significant impact on the summer climate anomalies over East Asia. Finally, several practical techniques (e.g., ensemble technique, correction method, etc.), which lead to the increase of the prediction skill for summer rainfall anomalies over China, have also been illustrated. The paper concludes with a list of critical requirements needed for the further improvement of dynamical seasonal climate prediction.展开更多
Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelin...Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.展开更多
The Inter Academy Partnership(IAP)project"Improving Scientific Input to Global Policymaking"is now mid-way through its three-year programme and we’re pleased to report its progress to-date.Funded by Carnegi...The Inter Academy Partnership(IAP)project"Improving Scientific Input to Global Policymaking"is now mid-way through its three-year programme and we’re pleased to report its progress to-date.Funded by Carnegie Corporation of New York,the project aims to:l raise awareness of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),especially amongst the academies;l explore opportunities to support SDGs more effectively,with a focus on how the academies can play their part systemically;l encourage collaboration and adoption of good practice among organizations that展开更多
This study investigates the relationship between the persistence and the zonal scale of atmospheric dipolar modes(DMs). Results from the daily data of ERA5 and the long-term output of an idealized atmospheric model sh...This study investigates the relationship between the persistence and the zonal scale of atmospheric dipolar modes(DMs). Results from the daily data of ERA5 and the long-term output of an idealized atmospheric model show that the atmospheric DMs with a broader(narrower) zonal scale dipolar structure possess a longer(shorter) persistence. A detailed vorticity budget analysis indicates that the persistence of a hemispheric-scale DM(1/1 DM) and a regional or sectoral DM(1/8 DM) in the model both largely rely on the persistence of the nonlinear eddy forcing. Linear terms can indirectly reduce the persistence of the anomalous nonlinear eddy forcing in a 1/8 DM by modifying the baroclinicity via the arousal of anomalous vertical motions. Therefore, the atmospheric DMs with a broader(narrower) zonal scale possess a longer(shorter) persistence because the effects of the linear terms are less(more) pronounced when the atmospheric DMs have better(worse) zonal symmetry. Further analyses show that the positive eddy feedback effect is weak or even absent in a 1/8DM and the high-frequency eddy forcing acts more like a concomitant phenomenon rather than a leading driving factor for a 1/8 DM. Thus, the hemispheric-scale DM and the regional or sectoral DMs are different, not only in their persistence but also in their dynamics.展开更多
Shallow convection plays an important role in transporting heat and moisture from the near-surface to higher altitudes,yet its parameterization in numerical models remains a great challenge,partly due to the lack of h...Shallow convection plays an important role in transporting heat and moisture from the near-surface to higher altitudes,yet its parameterization in numerical models remains a great challenge,partly due to the lack of high-resolution observations.This study describes a large eddy simulation(LES)dataset for four shallow convection cases that differ primarily in inversion strength,which can be used as a surrogate for real data.To reduce the uncertainty in LES modeling,three different large eddy models were used,including SAM(System for Atmospheric Modeling),WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model),and UCLA-LES.Results show that the different models generally exhibit similar behavior for each shallow convection case,despite some differences in the details of the convective structure.In addition to grid-averaged fields,conditionally sampled variables,such as in-cloud moisture and vertical velocity,are also provided,which are indispensable for calculation of the entrainment/detrainment rate.Considering the essentiality of the entraining/detraining process in the parameterization of cumulus convection,the dataset presented in this study is potentially useful for validation and improvement of the parameterization of shallow convection.展开更多
In astrophysics, the boundary conditions for plasma phenomena are provided by nature and the astronomer faces the problem of understanding them from a variety of observations [Hester J J et al 1996 Astrophys. J. 456 2...In astrophysics, the boundary conditions for plasma phenomena are provided by nature and the astronomer faces the problem of understanding them from a variety of observations [Hester J J et al 1996 Astrophys. J. 456 225], on the other hand, in laboratory plasma experiments the electromagnetic boundary conditions become a major problem in the set-up of the machine that produces the plasma, an issue that has to be investigated step by step and to be modified and adapted with great patience, in particular in the case of an innovative plasma confinement experiment. The PROTO-SPHERA machine [Alladio F et al 2006 Nucl. Fusion 46 S613] is a magnetic confinement experiment, that emulates in the laboratory the jet + torus plasma configurations often observed in astrophysics: an inner magnetized jet of plasma centered on the(approximate) axis of symmetry and surrounded by a magnetized plasma torus orthogonal to this jet. The PROTO-SPHERA plasma is simply connected, i.e., no metal current conducting rod is linked to the plasma torus, while instead it is the inner magnetized plasma jet(in the following always called the plasma centerpost) that is linked to the torus. It is mandatory that no spurious plasma current path modifies the optimal shape of the plasma centerpost. Moreover, as the plasma torus is produced and sustained, in absence of any applied inductive electric field, by the inner plasma centerpost through magnetic reconnections [Taylor J B and Turner M F 1989 Nucl.Fusion 29 219], it is required as well that spurious current paths do not surround the torus on its outboard, in order not to lower the efficiency of the magnetic reconnections that maintain the plasma torus at the expense of the plasma centerpost. Boundary conditions have been corrected,up to the point that the first sustainment in steady state has been achieved for the combined plasma.展开更多
The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower latitudes.Observations have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).Whil...The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower latitudes.Observations have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).While such DRFEs have been explored at low to middle latitudes,the aerosol impacts on pan-Arctic ecosystems and the contributions by anthropogenic and natural emission sources remain less quantified.Here,we perform regional simulations at 0.2o×0.2ousing a well-validated vegetation model(Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere,YIBs)in combination with multi-source of observations to quantify the impacts of aerosol DRFEs on the net primary productivity(NPP)in the pan-Arctic during 2001-19.Results show that aerosol DRFEs increase pan-Arctic NPP by 2.19 Pg C(12.8%)yr^(-1)under clear-sky conditions,in which natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to 8.9% and 3.9%,respectively.Under all-sky conditions,such DRFEs are largely dampened by cloud to only 0.26 Pg C(1.24%)yr^(-1),with contributions of 0.65% by natural and 0.59% by anthropogenic species.Natural aerosols cause a positive NPP trend of 0.022% yr^(-1)following the increased fire activities in the pan-Arctic.In contrast,anthropogenic aerosols induce a negative trend of-0.01% yr^(-1)due to reduced emissions from the middle latitudes.Such trends in aerosol DRFEs show a turning point in the year of 2007 with more positive NPP trends by natural aerosols but negative NPP trends by anthropogenic aerosols thereafter.Though affected by modeling uncertainties,this study suggests a likely increasing impact of aerosols on terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-Arctic under global warming.展开更多
If an explicit time scheme is used in a numerical model, the size of the integration time step is typically limited by the spatial resolution. This study develops a regular latitude–longitude grid-based global three-...If an explicit time scheme is used in a numerical model, the size of the integration time step is typically limited by the spatial resolution. This study develops a regular latitude–longitude grid-based global three-dimensional tracer transport model that is computationally stable at large time-step sizes. The tracer model employs a finite-volume flux-form semiLagrangian transport scheme in the horizontal and an adaptively implicit algorithm in the vertical. The horizontal and vertical solvers are coupled via a straightforward operator-splitting technique. Both the finite-volume scheme's onedimensional slope-limiter and the adaptively implicit vertical solver's first-order upwind scheme enforce monotonicity. The tracer model permits a large time-step size and is inherently conservative and monotonic. Idealized advection test cases demonstrate that the three-dimensional transport model performs very well in terms of accuracy, stability, and efficiency. It is possible to use this robust transport model in a global atmospheric dynamical core.展开更多
Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly...Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years.展开更多
Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variat...Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variations over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin.For all three types of terrain(i.e.,mountain,foothill,and plain),the amount of TR and SDHR both maximize in June/July,and the contribution of SDHR to TR(CST)peaks in August(amount:23%;frequency:1.74%).Foothill rainfall is characterized by a high TR amount and a high CST(in amount);mountain rainfall is characterized by a high TR frequency but a small CST(in amount);and plain rainfall shows a low TR amount and frequency,but a high CST(in amount).Overall,stations with high TR(amount and frequency)are mainly located over the mountains and in the foothills,while those with high SDHR(amount and frequency)are mainly concentrated in the foothills and plains close to mountainous areas.For all three types of terrain,the diurnal variations of both TR and SDHR exhibit a double peak(weak early morning and strong late afternoon)and a phase shift from the early-morning peak to the late-afternoon peak from May to August.Around the late-afternoon peak,the amount of TR and SDHR in the foothills is larger than over the mountains and plains.The TR intensity in the foothills increases significantly from midnight to afternoon,suggesting that thermal instability may play an important role in this process.展开更多
文摘The seasonal cycle of the climate of 9000 years before present was simulated with the IAP two-level atmospheric general circulation model. The incoming solar radiation was specified from the orbital parameters for 9000 years ago. The boundary conditions of that time were prescribed to the present value because of the small differences between the two. The change in radiation makes temperature to be higher in summer and lower in winter over large areas of the land; and the increased temperature contrast between the land and the ocean strengthens the summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation over there. The asymmetry of temperature change between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere and between summer and winter still exists, which agrees with that get from the previous perpetual experiments.
文摘The dynamical framework of the nine-level version of the IAP AGCM is presented in this paper. The emphasis of the model's description is put on the following two aspects:(1) A model's standard atmosphere, which is a satisfactory approximation to the observed troposphere and lower stratosphere standard atmosphere, is introduced into the equations of the model to permit a more accurate calculation of the vertical transport terms, especially near the tropopause; (2) The vertical levels of the model are carefully selected to guarantee a smooth dependence of layer thickness upon pressure in order to reduce the truncation error involved in the unequal interval vertical finite-differencing. For testing the model, two kinds of linear baroclinic Rossby-Haurwitz waves, one of which has a dynamically stable vertical structure and the other has a relatively unstable one, are constructed to provide initial conditions for numerical experiments. The two waves have been integrated for more than 300 days and 100 days respectively by using the model and both of them are propagating westward with almost identical phase-speed during the time period of the integrations. No obvious change of the wave patterns is found at the levels in the model's troposphere. The amplitudes of both two waves at the uppermost level, however, exhibit rather significant oscillation with time, of which the periods are exactly 20 days and 25 days espectively.The explanation of this interesting phenomena is still under investigation.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175073 and U1133603)
文摘Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) and summer precipitation over East Asia has been investigated, and compared with observation. It was found the meridional displacement of the EASWJ has a closer relationship with the precipitation over East Asia both from model simulation and observation, with an anomalous southward shift of EASWJ being conducive to rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV), and an anomalous northward shift resulting in less rainfall over the YHRV. However, the simulated precipitation anomalies were found to be weaker than observed from the composite analysis, and this would be related to the weakly reproduced mid-upper-level convergence in the mid-high latitudes and ascending motion in the lower latitudes.
基金supported by the Special Scientific Research Fund of the Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China[grant number GYHY01406021]National Key Research and Development Program[grant number 2016YFC0402702]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41575095,41175073]
基金supported by Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110103)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951801)
文摘The Common Land Model(CoLM) was coupled with the IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model(IAPDGVM), and the performance of this combined CoLMIAP model was evaluated. Offline simulations using both the original Common Land Model(CoLM-LPJ) and CoLM-IAP were conducted. The CoLM-IAP coupled model showed a significant improvement over CoLMLPJ, as the deciduous tree distribution decreased over temperate and boreal regions, while the distribution of evergreen trees increased over the tropics. Some biases in CoLM-LPJ were preserved, including the overestimation of evergreen trees in tropical savanna, the underestimation of boreal evergreen trees, and the absence of boreal shrubs. However, most of these biases did not exist in a further coupled simulation of IAP-DGVM with the Community Land Model(CLM), for which the parameters of IAP-DGVM were optimized. This implies that further improvement is needed to deal with the differences between CoLM and CLM in parameterizations of landbased physical and biochemical processes.
基金supported by the China-UK-Swiss Adapting to Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)-Climate Sciencethe Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean (201105019-3)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW- Q11-04)
文摘The authors examine extreme summer temperatures over East China during 1984-2004 using a regional climate model named CREM(the Climate version of Regional Eta-coordinate Model),which was developed by LASG/IAP.The results show that the main features of the extreme summer temperatures over East China are reproduced well by CREM,and the skill for the minimum temperature is higher than that for the maximum temperature,especially along the Yangtze-Huai River Valley(YHV).The simulated extreme temperatures are lower than those of observation,especially for the maximum temperature.The bias of extreme temperatures is consistent with the cold bias of the climatological mean summer surface air temperature.The skill of the model in simulating the interannual variability of extreme temperatures increases from north to south.The simulated interannual variation of the minimum temperature is more reasonable than the maximum temperature.The underestimation of net solar radiation at the surface leads to a cold bias of the climatological mean temperature.Furthermore,the model underestimates the light and moderate rain,while overestimates heavy rain.It causes the simulated minimum temperature more reasonable than the maximum temperature.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA05110200]the Special Scientific Research Fund of the Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China[grant number GYHY201406021]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41575095,41175073,41575062,41520104008]
基金the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40523001 and 40605022)the Chinese Acadiemy of the International Partnership Creative Group entitled"Climate System Model Development and Application Studies".
文摘Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation (IAV), and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (cooling) in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude: (1) successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; (2) more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; (3) the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.
基金supported by the Key P roject of the National N atural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos:40233027 and 40221503)the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-203)the IAP/CAS Knowledge Innovation Project.
文摘Recent advances in dynamical climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during the last five years have been briefly described in this paper. Firstly, the second generation of the IAP dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-Ⅱ) has been described, and two sets of hindcast experiments of the summer rainfall anomalies over China for the periods of 1980-1994 with different versions of the IAP AGCM have been conducted. The comparison results show that the predictive skill of summer rainfall anomalies over China is improved with the improved IAP AGCM in which the surface albedo parameterization is modified. Furthermore, IAP DCP-II has been applied to the real-time prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over China since 1998, and the verification results show that IAP DCP-II can quite well capture the large scale patterns of the summer flood/drought situations over China during the last five years (1998-2002). Meanwhile, an investigation has demonstrated the importance of the atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal climate prediction, along with studies on the influences from surface boundary conditions (e.g., land surface characteristics, sea surface temperature). Certain conclusions have been reached, such as, the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring may play an important role in the summer climate anomalies, and soil moisture anomalies in spring can also have a significant impact on the summer climate anomalies over East Asia. Finally, several practical techniques (e.g., ensemble technique, correction method, etc.), which lead to the increase of the prediction skill for summer rainfall anomalies over China, have also been illustrated. The paper concludes with a list of critical requirements needed for the further improvement of dynamical seasonal climate prediction.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)“Innovation Program”(ZKCX2-SW-210)State Key Project(G2000078502)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.40231004,40221503,and 40023001).
文摘Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.
文摘The Inter Academy Partnership(IAP)project"Improving Scientific Input to Global Policymaking"is now mid-way through its three-year programme and we’re pleased to report its progress to-date.Funded by Carnegie Corporation of New York,the project aims to:l raise awareness of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),especially amongst the academies;l explore opportunities to support SDGs more effectively,with a focus on how the academies can play their part systemically;l encourage collaboration and adoption of good practice among organizations that
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (mechanism for disaster-causing Northeast cold vortex and key technologies for its forecast, Grant No.2023YFC3007700)。
文摘This study investigates the relationship between the persistence and the zonal scale of atmospheric dipolar modes(DMs). Results from the daily data of ERA5 and the long-term output of an idealized atmospheric model show that the atmospheric DMs with a broader(narrower) zonal scale dipolar structure possess a longer(shorter) persistence. A detailed vorticity budget analysis indicates that the persistence of a hemispheric-scale DM(1/1 DM) and a regional or sectoral DM(1/8 DM) in the model both largely rely on the persistence of the nonlinear eddy forcing. Linear terms can indirectly reduce the persistence of the anomalous nonlinear eddy forcing in a 1/8 DM by modifying the baroclinicity via the arousal of anomalous vertical motions. Therefore, the atmospheric DMs with a broader(narrower) zonal scale possess a longer(shorter) persistence because the effects of the linear terms are less(more) pronounced when the atmospheric DMs have better(worse) zonal symmetry. Further analyses show that the positive eddy feedback effect is weak or even absent in a 1/8DM and the high-frequency eddy forcing acts more like a concomitant phenomenon rather than a leading driving factor for a 1/8 DM. Thus, the hemispheric-scale DM and the regional or sectoral DMs are different, not only in their persistence but also in their dynamics.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2021YFC3000802)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175165)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Shallow convection plays an important role in transporting heat and moisture from the near-surface to higher altitudes,yet its parameterization in numerical models remains a great challenge,partly due to the lack of high-resolution observations.This study describes a large eddy simulation(LES)dataset for four shallow convection cases that differ primarily in inversion strength,which can be used as a surrogate for real data.To reduce the uncertainty in LES modeling,three different large eddy models were used,including SAM(System for Atmospheric Modeling),WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model),and UCLA-LES.Results show that the different models generally exhibit similar behavior for each shallow convection case,despite some differences in the details of the convective structure.In addition to grid-averaged fields,conditionally sampled variables,such as in-cloud moisture and vertical velocity,are also provided,which are indispensable for calculation of the entrainment/detrainment rate.Considering the essentiality of the entraining/detraining process in the parameterization of cumulus convection,the dataset presented in this study is potentially useful for validation and improvement of the parameterization of shallow convection.
文摘In astrophysics, the boundary conditions for plasma phenomena are provided by nature and the astronomer faces the problem of understanding them from a variety of observations [Hester J J et al 1996 Astrophys. J. 456 225], on the other hand, in laboratory plasma experiments the electromagnetic boundary conditions become a major problem in the set-up of the machine that produces the plasma, an issue that has to be investigated step by step and to be modified and adapted with great patience, in particular in the case of an innovative plasma confinement experiment. The PROTO-SPHERA machine [Alladio F et al 2006 Nucl. Fusion 46 S613] is a magnetic confinement experiment, that emulates in the laboratory the jet + torus plasma configurations often observed in astrophysics: an inner magnetized jet of plasma centered on the(approximate) axis of symmetry and surrounded by a magnetized plasma torus orthogonal to this jet. The PROTO-SPHERA plasma is simply connected, i.e., no metal current conducting rod is linked to the plasma torus, while instead it is the inner magnetized plasma jet(in the following always called the plasma centerpost) that is linked to the torus. It is mandatory that no spurious plasma current path modifies the optimal shape of the plasma centerpost. Moreover, as the plasma torus is produced and sustained, in absence of any applied inductive electric field, by the inner plasma centerpost through magnetic reconnections [Taylor J B and Turner M F 1989 Nucl.Fusion 29 219], it is required as well that spurious current paths do not surround the torus on its outboard, in order not to lower the efficiency of the magnetic reconnections that maintain the plasma torus at the expense of the plasma centerpost. Boundary conditions have been corrected,up to the point that the first sustainment in steady state has been achieved for the combined plasma.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFE0106500)Jiangsu Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(Grant No.BK20200040)。
文摘The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower latitudes.Observations have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).While such DRFEs have been explored at low to middle latitudes,the aerosol impacts on pan-Arctic ecosystems and the contributions by anthropogenic and natural emission sources remain less quantified.Here,we perform regional simulations at 0.2o×0.2ousing a well-validated vegetation model(Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere,YIBs)in combination with multi-source of observations to quantify the impacts of aerosol DRFEs on the net primary productivity(NPP)in the pan-Arctic during 2001-19.Results show that aerosol DRFEs increase pan-Arctic NPP by 2.19 Pg C(12.8%)yr^(-1)under clear-sky conditions,in which natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to 8.9% and 3.9%,respectively.Under all-sky conditions,such DRFEs are largely dampened by cloud to only 0.26 Pg C(1.24%)yr^(-1),with contributions of 0.65% by natural and 0.59% by anthropogenic species.Natural aerosols cause a positive NPP trend of 0.022% yr^(-1)following the increased fire activities in the pan-Arctic.In contrast,anthropogenic aerosols induce a negative trend of-0.01% yr^(-1)due to reduced emissions from the middle latitudes.Such trends in aerosol DRFEs show a turning point in the year of 2007 with more positive NPP trends by natural aerosols but negative NPP trends by anthropogenic aerosols thereafter.Though affected by modeling uncertainties,this study suggests a likely increasing impact of aerosols on terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-Arctic under global warming.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075153)the Young Scientists Fund of the Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (Grant No. CEMC-QNJJ-2022014)。
文摘If an explicit time scheme is used in a numerical model, the size of the integration time step is typically limited by the spatial resolution. This study develops a regular latitude–longitude grid-based global three-dimensional tracer transport model that is computationally stable at large time-step sizes. The tracer model employs a finite-volume flux-form semiLagrangian transport scheme in the horizontal and an adaptively implicit algorithm in the vertical. The horizontal and vertical solvers are coupled via a straightforward operator-splitting technique. Both the finite-volume scheme's onedimensional slope-limiter and the adaptively implicit vertical solver's first-order upwind scheme enforce monotonicity. The tracer model permits a large time-step size and is inherently conservative and monotonic. Idealized advection test cases demonstrate that the three-dimensional transport model performs very well in terms of accuracy, stability, and efficiency. It is possible to use this robust transport model in a global atmospheric dynamical core.
文摘Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos. U2142202, 41975056, 42230612, and 41975058)Youth Innovation Promotion Association,Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab)
文摘Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variations over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin.For all three types of terrain(i.e.,mountain,foothill,and plain),the amount of TR and SDHR both maximize in June/July,and the contribution of SDHR to TR(CST)peaks in August(amount:23%;frequency:1.74%).Foothill rainfall is characterized by a high TR amount and a high CST(in amount);mountain rainfall is characterized by a high TR frequency but a small CST(in amount);and plain rainfall shows a low TR amount and frequency,but a high CST(in amount).Overall,stations with high TR(amount and frequency)are mainly located over the mountains and in the foothills,while those with high SDHR(amount and frequency)are mainly concentrated in the foothills and plains close to mountainous areas.For all three types of terrain,the diurnal variations of both TR and SDHR exhibit a double peak(weak early morning and strong late afternoon)and a phase shift from the early-morning peak to the late-afternoon peak from May to August.Around the late-afternoon peak,the amount of TR and SDHR in the foothills is larger than over the mountains and plains.The TR intensity in the foothills increases significantly from midnight to afternoon,suggesting that thermal instability may play an important role in this process.