EVALUATION OF CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST OVER NORTH INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

India Meteorological Department(IMD) introduced cone of uncertainty(COU) in cyclonic disturbances(CDs) alongwith the 72 hr track forecast over the north India Ocean(NIO) in 2009. The track forecast for CDs is issued for +6, +12, +18, +24, +36, +48, +60 and +72 hrs time period from the stage of deep depression onwards. An attempt is made to evaluate COU forecast issued by IMD during 2009-2011(3 years). The size of the cone is deduced from climatological track forecast errors. The accuracy of COU forecast has been analysed with respect to basin of formation, season of formation, intensity and type of track(climatological/straight moving and recurving/looping type) of CDs by calculating percentage of total number of forecasts in each category lying within COU. The observed track lies within the forecast COU in about 60% of the cases over the NIO. The accuracy of COU forecast is about 66% in post-monsoon season and about 50% in pre-monsoon season. The observed track lies within the forecast COU in 90% cases of climatological/straight moving CDs and 39% cases of recurving/looping CDs. The observed track lies within COU forecast in about 71% cases of severe cyclonic storm and 37% cases of cyclonic storm/deep depression.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST VERIFICATION BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPA RTMENT FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN: A REVIEW

The tropical cyclone(TC)forecast verification procedure followed by India Meteorological Department(IMD)is reviewed herewith as compared to the standard prescribed by World Meteorological Organisation.The limitations in the present procedure and the future scope are presented and analysed.The IMD has considerably increased its efforts in recent years in the areas of TC forecasting and verification.Many facilities have been developed to enable a detailed assessment of the global model’s performance in the forecasting of TCs as well as operational TC forecast performance.Further development of these facilities is being undertaken by IMD.There are grey areas in TC forecast verification of IMD in the field of calculation of forecast error in surface wind radii in geographical quadrants,which is yet to start.Also there is need for improvement in verification of storm surge,wave height,coastal inundation forecasts and heavy rainfall forecasts by calculating the skill parameters and also by improving the analysis data required for verification of forecasts.Similarly there is need for verification of strike probability as well as dynamical cone of uncertainty as given by ensemble prediction system.

Monthly Forecast of Indian Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Based on NCEP’s Coupled Forecast System

The monthly forecast of Indian monsoon rainfall during June to September is investigated by using the hindcast data sets of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s operational coupled model (known as the Climate Forecast System) for 25 years from 1981 to 2005 with 15 ensemble members each. The ensemble mean monthly rainfall over land region of India from CFS with one month lead forecast is underestimated during June to September. With respect to the inter-annual variability of monthly rainfall it is seen that the only significant correlation coefficients (CCs) are found to be for June forecast with May initial condition and September rainfall with August initial conditions. The CFS has got lowest skill for the month of August followed by that of July. Considering the lower skill of monthly forecast based on the ensemble mean, all 15 ensemble members are used separately for the preparation of probability forecast and different probability scores like Brier Score (BS), Brier Skill Score (BSS), Accuracy, Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Threat Score (TS) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for all the three categories of forecasts (above normal, below normal and normal) have been calculated. In terms of the BS and BSS the skill of the monthly probability forecast in all the three categories are better than the climatology forecasts with positive BSS values except in case of normal forecast of June and July. The “TS”, “HSS” and other scores also provide useful probability forecast in case of CFS except the normal category of July forecast. Thus, it is seen that the monthly probability forecast based on NCEP CFS coupled model during the southwest monsoon season is very encouraging and is found to be very useful.

A Preliminary Study on Rainfall Pattern before and after the January 26, 2001 Bhuj Earthquake (<i>M_w</i>7.7) over Kachchh Region of Western Peninsular, India

Under the influence of great debate on relation between earthquake and rainfall, some scientists have carried out detailed study and now commonly accepted that heavy rainfall can trigger earthquake at the faults or fractures depending upon the local geology. Here, an attempt is made to check relation between earthquake and rainfall with different scientific approaches. We have attempted to critically examine the relation between the Bhuj earthquake-aftershocks sequence and the rainfall pattern over the region as large earthquake (Mw 7.7) has occurred on January 26, 2001 in Kachchh region of western peninsular shield of India and the aftershocks are being reported till the date. We have analyzed rainfall data for 20 years, i.e. 10 years before and 10 years after the main shock of January 26, 2001, recorded by three meteorological observatories in the Kachchh region. We have studied annual total rainfall for two decades, annual rainfall departures from the climate normals, number of rainy days and number of heavy rainfall days during the period for all the three meteorological observatories of Kachchh region. We have found significant increase in all the measured rainfall parameters i.e. annual total rainfall, number of rainy days and number of heavy rainfall days over the Kachchh region during last decade i.e., from 2001 to 2010 after the main shock. Numbers of negative departures have been decreased during the last decade compared to previous decade. Thus rainfall pattern over Kachchh region is being changed. This increase in rainfall activity over Kachchh region may have been influenced by large earthquake and continuing aftershock activities over the region.

Application of Omori’s Decay Law to the 2001 Bhuj Aftershock Sequence for Kachchh Region of Western India

In the present study, the temporal behavior of 2001 Bhuj aftershock sequence in Kachchh region of western peninsular India is studied by the modified Omori law. The Omori law parameters p, c and K are determined with the standard errors by the maximum likelihood estimates using ZMAP algorithm in MatLab environment. The entire aftershock sequence is analyzed by diving it into three separate series with respect to time to weigh up the bigger earthquake of magnitude M 5.7 occurring on March 7, 2006 at Gedi fault. This study helps to understand the cumulative effect of the aftershocks generated by this bigger earthquake of the mainshock sequence. The results of this analysis are discussed with other studies of the different earthquake sequence for the different parts of the world and suggest that all the three series of Bhuj aftershock sequence follow the Omori relation. Values of parameter p vary significantly from series 1 to series 3, i.e., p-value varies significantly with time. Similarly, other two Omori law parameters K and c are also found to change significantly with time. These parameters are useful to describe temporal behavior of aftershocks and to forecast aftershock activity in time domain. Aftershock decay rate provides insight into stress release processes after the mainshock, thus helping to understand the heterogeneity of the fault zone properties and evaluate time-dependent seismic hazard analysis over the region.

Characterization of Source Parameters and Some Empirical Relations between Them for Kachchh Region, Gujarat, India: Implication of January 26, 2001 Bhuj Earthquake and Its Aftershock Sequence

Study of source parameters of small to moderate and large earthquakes is important to understand the differences and similarities between dynamic ruptures of different earthquakes and clarifying the scaling relations. In the present study, we have characterized source parameters and presented new and revised empirical relationships between various source parameters for Kachchh region of Gujarat, India to facilitate to draw first-order conclusions regarding the trends in the region. We have studied total 202 aftershocks of shallow-focus (hypo central depth less than 40 km) and moderate magnitude recorded over the Kachchh region during January 2001 to December 2012 by different seismological observatories of India Meteorological Department. We have adopted the spectral technique for source parameter estimation, where S-wave displacement spectra are considered and applied Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to compute displacement spectra. We have followed the Brune’s source model for our estimation and the estimated values of source parameters show close approximation to the global values. While derived empirical relations between different source parameters, they demonstrate direct or inverse proportion to linear or power scale. Interrelation between seismic moment, rupture parameters, corner frequency and radiated seismic energy can be summarized as , , and ER μ M0 and ER μ Mw for our analysis. Stress drop distribution over the Kachchh region is very scattered and due to its peculiar behavior, it is difficult to derive its empirical relation with other source parameters. Sufficient accuracy on measuring source parameters like corner frequency stress drop, rupture dimensions, radiated seismic energy etc. helps to understand earthquake processes in the region. This is the first ever attempt to establish empirical relation between different source parameters for Kachchh region for longer aftershock sequence and they are useful to assess future earthquake potential over the region.

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

In this paper we examine the epochal changes in the frequency of cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during the pre-onset and onset phases of the monsoon.We consider three epochs;namely,the early(1955-74),middle(1975-94)and recent(1995-2014)epochs.It is found that the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)decreases throughout the three epochs.Over the Arabian Sea(ARB),however,there is a decrease in the early epoch,before then reaching a minimum in the middle epoch followed by an increase in the recent epoch,thus exhibiting epochal variability.Dynamic and thermodynamic parameters along with Genesis Potential Index(GPI)are examined to understand the frequency variation in cyclogenesis over the ARB and BOB.Over the ARB,thermodynamic factors such as mid-level moisture,surface latent heat flux and sensible heat flux,and dynamic parameters such as lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence,are favorable during the early and recent epochs but unfavorable during the middle epoch,and these results are found to be consistent with the observed epochal variability in the frequency of cyclogenesis.However,all these influential parameters are found to have decreased over the BOB during the entire 60-year period.

Development and Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclone OCKHI(2017)over the North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone OCKHI over the North Indian Ocean during 2017 underwent dramatic development and rapid intensification very close to the land-Sri Lanka,extreme South Indian coast and Lakshadweep area during its initial developmental stage and caused extensive damages over these areas.On examining the physical and structural mechanism involved in such development,it is observed that the initial development was associated with axi-symmetrisation of the vortex that could be associated with Vortex Rossby waves near the eyewall.Associated with the expulsion of high vorticity from the centre during asymmetry mixing,there was outward propagation of eddy angular momentum flux in the lower levels that strengthened a low level anticyclone to the northeast of the TC centre which in turn enhanced the cyclonic inflow near the TC centre.The rapid intensification phase was associated with vertical non-uniform heating with upper and lower tropospheric warming associated with latent heat release in convection.During the mature phase,the system sustained‘very severe’intensity even under increasing vertical shear and lower ocean heat flux under the influence of a break in the sub tropical ridge to the north of the system centre that enhanced the poleward outflow in the upper troposphere.

Environmental Energetics aspects of anomalous Cyclogenesis over indian Ocean during 2013

An attempt has been made to understand the dynamics behind anomalous cyclogenesis over North Indian Ocean during 2013 cyclone seasons, from an atmospheric energetics point of view. For that various energy terms, their generation and conversion terms have been computed using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during different phases of the intense cyclonic vortices formed in 2013 over North Indian Seas. It is observed that maximum intensification of all the intense cyclonic vortices was associated with an enhancement in both conversions viz., from eddy available potential energy (AE) to eddy kinetic energy (KE) and zonal kinetic energy (KZ) to eddy kinetic energy (KE). Energetics analysis suggested that during intensification of the storms, dissipation of both eddy available potential energy ( AE )and zonal available potential energy (AZ) have taken place, suggesting the intensification of storms at the cost of AE and AZ. For all of these systems baroclinic eddy kinetic energy conversions i.e. from AE to KE dominates over barotropic eddy kinetic energy conversions i.e. from KZ to KE.Anomalous cyclogenesis in 2013, was partly attributed to a positive anomaly in moist static energy of the environment along with positive anomaly in baroclinic and barotropic eddy kinetic energy conversions during cyclone seasons over the region under study. Release of convective instability in the atmosphere can be partly attributed for anomalous cyclogenesis in 2013.

Statistical Models for Long-range Forecasting of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India Using Step Wise Regression and Neural Network

The long-range forecasts (LRF) based on statistical methods for southwest monsoon rainfall over India (ISMR) has been issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for more than 100 years. Many statistical and dynamical models including the operational models of IMD failed to predict the operational models of IMD failed to predict the deficient monsoon years 2002 and 2004 on the earlier occasions and so had happened for monsoon 2009. In this paper a brief of the recent methods being followed for LRF that is 8-parameter and 10-parameter power regression models used from 2003 to 2006 and new statistical ensemble forecasting system are explained. Then the new three stage procedure is explained. In this the most pertinent predictors are selected from the set of all the potential predictors for April, June and July models. The model equations are developed by using the linear regression and neural network techniques based upon training set of the 43 years of data from 1958 to 2000. The skill of the models is evaluated based upon the validation set of 11 years of data from 2001 to 2011, which has shown the high skill on the validation data set. It can be inferred that these models have the potential to provide a prediction of ISMR, which would significantly improve the operational forecast.

Climatology of Energetics of Cyclones over Indian Seas

An attempt has been made to bring out a climatology of the energetics associated with the tropical cyclones formed over North Indian Seas, viz., the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BOB). Study period is from 1991 to 2013. During this period a total 88 cyclones that developed over the Indian Seas have been considered. These intense systems are categorized on the basis of their formation region and season of formation. It is seen that during the study period, the frequency of formation of cyclones over BOB is twice that over AS which is consistent with the climatology of the regions. Further, it is noticed that over both the regions, they are more frequently formed in the post monsoon period compared to pre monsoon. The trend analysis of the frequency of cyclones forming over both basins, season wise shows that the overall trend for both basins is of just decreasing type. However, for Arabian Sea;the decreasing trend is more apparent in the post monsoon season, whereas in the case of the Bay of Bengal the decreasing trend is more evident in the pre-monsoon season. Various energy terms, their generation and conversion terms have been computed using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Day to day quantitative analysis of these parameters is studied critically during various stages of the cyclones. The composites of these categorized systems are formed and studied. The formative, intensification and dissipation stages showed variations in their energy terms.

Integrated water vapor during active and break spells of monsoon and its relationship with temperature,precipitation and precipitation efficiency over a tropical site

Global Positioning System(GPS)measurements of integrated water vapor(IWV)for two years(2014 and 2015)are presented in this paper.Variation of IWV during active and break spells of Indian summer monsoon has been studied for a tropical station Hyderabad(17.4°N,78.46°E).The data is validated with ECMWF Re-Analysis(ERA)91 level data.Relationships of IWV with other atmospheric variables like surface temperature,rain,and precipitation efficiency have been established through cross-correlation studies.A positive correlation coefficient is observed between IWV and surface temperature over two years.But the coefficient becomes negative when only summer monsoon months(June,July,August,and September)are considered.Rainfall during these months cools down the surface and could be the reason for this change in the correlation coefficient.Correlation studies between IWV-precipitation,IWVprecipitation efficiency(P.E),and precipitation-P.E show that coefficients are-0.05,-0.10 and 0.983 with 95%confidence level respectively,which proves that the efficacy of rain does not depend only on the level of water vapor.A proper dynamic mechanism is necessary to convert water vapor into the rain.The diurnal variations of IWV during active and break spells have been analyzed.The amplitudes of diurnal oscillation and its harmonics of individual spell do not show clear trends but the mean amplitudes of the break spells are approximately double than those of the active spells.The amplitudes of diurnal,semidiurnal and ter-diurnal components during break spells are 1.08 kg/m^(2),0.52 kg/m;and 0.34 kg/m;respectively.The corresponding amplitudes during active spells are 0.68 kg/m^(2),0.41 kg/m;and 0.23 kg/m;.

A research progress review on regional extreme events

An extreme （weather and climate） event does not only mean that an extreme occurs at a location, but more generally it can impact a certainarea and last a certain period of time, which is defined as a regional extreme event （REE） with a certain impacted area and duration. The conceptof REE has been defined to allow mainly objective assessment of the events without a pre-determined boundary and duration. This paper reviewsthe studies on REEs published during the past 20 years, especially recent years. Mainly in view of methodology, these studies can be divided intothree types studies focusing on spatial simultaneity, studies focusing on temporal persistence, and studies identifying REEs. The methodsidentifying REEs include two kinds, e.g., type-I methods stressing REE＇s temporal persistence within a relatively certain area and type-IImethods focusing on catching a complete REE. Identification methods proposed in this paper could provide valuable information for variouspurposes, such as real-time monitoring, estimating long-term changes, mechanism diagnosis, forecasting study and even attribution analysis.Research on REEs is important for objectively defining extreme weather and climate events, which depends on the spatial and temporal scales ofinterest. Such an objective definition will support ongoing climate monitoring and improve the assessment of how regional extreme events havechanged over time.

Rainfall Estimation using Image Processing and Regression Model on DWR Rainfall Product for Delhi-NCR Region

Observed rainfall is a very essential parameter for the analysis of rainfall,day to day weather forecast and its validation.The observed rainfall data is only available from five observatories of IMD;while no rainfall data is available at various important locations in and around Delhi-NCR.However,the 24-hour rainfall data observed by Doppler Weather Radar(DWR)for entire Delhi and surrounding region(up to 150 km)is readily available in a pictorial form.In this paper,efforts have been made to derive/estimate the rainfall at desired locations using DWR hydrological products.Firstly,the rainfall at desired locations has been estimated from the precipitation accumulation product(PAC)of the DWR using image processing in Python language.After this,a linear regression model using the least square method has been developed in R language.Estimated and observed rainfall data of year 2018(July,August and September)was used to train the model.After this,the model was tested on rainfall data of year 2019(July,August and September)and validated.With the use of linear regression model,the error in mean rainfall estimation reduced by 46.58% and the error in max rainfall estimation reduced by 84.53% for the year 2019.The error in mean rainfall estimation reduced by 81.36% and the error in max rainfall estimation reduced by 33.81%for the year 2018.Thus,the rainfall can be estimated with a fair degree of accuracy at desired locations within the range of the Doppler Weather Radar using the radar rainfall products and the developed linear regression model.

Historical temporal variation in precipitation over Western Himalayan Region：1857-2006

This study has examined the temporal variation in monthly, seasonal & annual precipitation over the Western Himalayan Region(WHR) and the influence of global teleconnections, like the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and Southern Oscillation(SO) Indices on seasonal & annual precipitation. The Mann–Kendall non-parametric test is applied for trend detection and the Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test is used to detect possible shift. Maximum entropy spectral analysis is applied to find the periodicity in annual & seasonal precipitation. The study shows a non-significant decreasing trend in annual precipitation over WHR for the period 1857-2006. However, in seasonal precipitation, a significant decreasing trend is observed in monsoon and a significant increasing trend in post-monsoon season during the same period. The significant decrease in monsoon precipitation may be due to weakening of its teleconnection with NAO as well as SO Indices mainly during last three decades. It is observed that the probable change of year in annual & monsoon precipitation over WHR is 1979. The study also shows significant periodicities of 2.3-2.9 years and of 3.9-4.7 years in annual & seasonal precipitation over WHR.

Thumb Rule for Nowcast of Dust Storm and Strong Squally Winds over Delhi NCR using DWR Data

Squally winds are the natural hazards and are often associated with the severe thunderstorms(TS),which mostly affects plains of North West India during pre monsoon season(March to May).Squally winds of the order more than 60 kmph are very devastating.Under influence of these strong squally winds trees,electricity poles,advertisement sign boards fall,sometimes human life is also lost.The main objective of this study is to find out the thumb rule based on Doppler Weather Radar(DWR)Data to Nowcast the squally winds over a region.To detect thumb rule,five cases of thunder storm accompanied with squally winds ranging from(55 kmph to 110 kmph)are taken in to consideration.These TS’s occurred over Delhi NCR(National Capital Region)during May-June 2018.Maximum reflectivity(Max Z)data of Delhi DWR,Cloud Top Temperature(CTT)data from INSAT and squally winds along with other weather parameters observed at Safdarjung and Palam observatories are utilized to find out the Thumb Rule.Based on the analysis,it is concluded that presence of a western disturbance(WD),presence of East-West trough from North-west Rajasthan upto East UP through south Haryana and very high temperature of the order of 40 degree Celsius over the nearby area are very conducive for occurrence of squally winds accompanied with thunderstorms.Thumb rule find out in this study is that,squally winds of the order of 55 kmph or more will effect a station if a thunderstorm(having Max Z echo with vertical extension of cell>7 km,reflectivity>45 dBz and at a distance of more than 100 km from the station)moving towards station is present in one to two hour before images of Doppler Weather Radar.

The Monsoon Low-Level Jet:Climatology and Impact on Monsoon Rainfall over the West Coast and Central Peninsular India

The monsoon low-level jet(MLLJ)originates at Mascarene high and after traveling thousands of kilometers enters India from the western boundary causing deep convection,cloudiness,and rainfall.Although its core lies at 850 hPa,it has a large vertical extent;therefore,different meteorological parameters at different levels have a large influence on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.This study aims to examine the upper-air climatology of 9 stations on the west coast and central Peninsular India and to find out the effects of various parameters at different standard pressure levels on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability.We used the 34-yr(1971–2004)actual upper-air radiosonde/radio wind and standard synoptic surface observations data from these 9 stations and reported some new aspects of the MLLJ.The NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalysis wind data have also been used to holistically study the features of MLLJ over sea and land areas.This study,as opposed to some recent studies,confirms the splitting of MLLJ into two branches,which can be seen on a few days during the monsoon season.Further analyses show that the change in geopotential height between 800 and 900 hPa has a strong bearing on the strength of MLLJ.The change in the upper-air pressure gradient force over the Indian landmass can cause a change in the wind speed of MLLJ during the monsoon season.

Significant Improvement in Rainfall Forecast over Delhi:Annual and Seasonal Verification

Regional Weather Forecasting Centre(RWFC)New Delhi has the responsibility to issue and disseminate rainfall forecast for Delhi.So it is very important to scientifically verify the rainfall forecast issued by RWFC.In this study rainfall forecast verification of Delhi has been carried out annually and season wise for the period 2011 to 2021.Various statistical parameters such as Percentage Correct(PC),Probability of Detection(POD),Missing Ratio(MR),False Alarm Ratio(FAR),Critical Success Index(CSI),True Skill Statistics(TSS)and Heidke Skill Score(HSS)have been calculated for season wise and annually.A forecast is considered to be improved if PC,POD,CSI,TSS and HSS increase and FAR and MR decrease over a period of time.The author can conclude that annual accuracy of forecast has increased significantly over the period of time from 2011 to 2021,as PC,POD,CSI,TSS and HSS increase and FAR and MR decrease over a period of time.Maximum contribution in the improved forecast has observed in transition season(pre-monsoon season followed by post-monsoon,having rainfall activity mainly in association with thunderstorms),when FAR and MR have decreased drastically.

DEVELOPMENT OF NWP BASED OBJECTIVE CYCLONE PREDICTION SYSTEM(CPS) FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES——EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE

An objective NWP based Cyclone Prediction System(CPS) has been developed and implemented at IMD for operational cyclone forecasting over the north Indian Ocean(NIO). The five forecast components of CPS are(a) Genesis Potential Parameter(GPP),(b) Multi-Model Ensemble(MME) technique for track prediction,(c) Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction(SCIP),(d) rapid intensification and(e) decay model to forecast intensity after the landfall.Verification shows GPP had higher probability of detection(0.98) and lower false alarm ratio(0.27) with higher critical success index(0.72). Mean track error of MME ranged from 74 km at 12 h to 200 km at 72 h and reduced by 27% to 52% for 36 h to 72 h forecast during 2009-2013. The mean forecast errors of landfall position ranged from 56 km at 24 h to 137 km at 72 h and landfall time error ranged from 3.6 h at 24 h to 6.1 h at 72 h. Mean intensity errors of SCIP ranged from 5.4 kt at 12 h to 16.9 kt at 72 h. The probabilistic rapid intensification forecast was skillful compared to climatology. The 6-hourly decaying intensity(after landfall) errors ranged from 3 kt to 4.9 kt. Results demonstrate the potential of CPS for operational cyclone forecast over the NIO.

DIABATIC HEATING AND CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRIES DURING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

Rapid changes in Tropical Cyclone(TC)structure and intensity are the most diffi cult aspects of TC forecasting.The intensity and structural changes associated with rapid intensifi cation(RI)and rapid weakening(RW)instances of TCs of North Indian Ocean(NIO)are analysed based on 5 cases each for RI and RW.The vertical profi les of heat(Q_1)and moisture(Q_2)based on heat and moisture budget equations are analysed to bring out the role of diabatic heating during the RI and RW processes.The associated structural changes are analysed based on the Fourier fi rst order wave number-1 asymmetry in the precipitation patterns associated with RI and RW instances.During RI process,there are 2 predominant Q_1 maxima associated with latent heat release near the TC centre,one in the upper troposphere and the other in the lower troposphere.During RW process,there is a single dominant Q_1 and Q_2 maxima in the mid-troposphere.Regarding the structural changes,there is a pronounced front-back asymmetry in both RI and RW cases.The asymmetry amplitude in the inner core is lower in the case of RI events but,is quite high for RW events.Thus,RW events are characterised by large convective asymmetry.