Recent Ventures in Interdisciplinary Arctic Research:The ARCPATH Project

This paper celebrates Professor Yongqi GAO's significant achievement in the field of interdisciplinary studies within the context of his final research project Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient Sustainable Societies-ARCPATH(https://www.svs.is/en/projects/finished-projects/arcpath). The disciplines represented in the project are related to climatology, anthropology, marine biology, economics, and the broad spectrum of social-ecological studies. Team members were drawn from the Nordic countries, Russia, China, the United States, and Canada. The project was transdisciplinary as well as interdisciplinary as it included collaboration with local knowledge holders. ARCPATH made significant contributions to Arctic research through an improved understanding of the mechanisms that drive climate variability in the Arctic. In tandem with this research, a combination of historical investigations and social, economic, and marine biological fieldwork was carried out for the project study areas of Iceland, Greenland, Norway, and the surrounding seas, with a focus on the joint use of ocean and sea-ice data as well as social-ecological drivers. ARCPATH was able to provide an improved framework for predicting the near-term variation of Arctic climate on spatial scales relevant to society, as well as evaluating possible related changes in socioeconomic realms. In summary, through the integration of information from several different disciplines and research approaches, ARCPATH served to create new and valuable knowledge on crucial issues, thus providing new pathways to action for Arctic communities.

Shades of Chaos: Lessons Learned About Lessons Learned About Forecasting El Nio and Its Impacts

The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Nio that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline(weak) El Nio event, 'trickiest ever to forecast.'That is understandable, as the science of El Nio is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Nio’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset(as a specific event)should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts(as a process) once the onset has been assured.Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it.Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Nio.

The Letter and the Spirit of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction(a.k.a.HFA2)

In the midst of assessing and critiquing the document produced by the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction(WCDRR)in Sendai,Japan,I came to realize that we tend to focus on the document itself and less so on the good intentions of many of the delegates and

Disaster Risk Reduction Efforts in the Greater Horn of Africa

This article assesses the current state of disaster risk reduction(DRR) in the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA),and focuses on interventions and policies to mitigate hydrometeorological risks. The research analyzes, as main case study, the program 'Regional Climate Prediction and Risk Reduction in the Greater Horn of Africa'funded by the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance(USAID OFDA) in the early 2000 that targeted risk preparedness.The research method combines a desk review of relevant documents and research papers with surveys and interviews directed to key proponents of DRR across the GHA. Results highlight current strengths and weaknesses in the way DRR is implemented in the GHA. Significant improvements in the climate-forecasting capabilities in the GHA since the 2000 s are acknowledged, but the practice of DRR remains technology driven and impacts on the ground are limited. The key findings highlight the significant communication gaps that exist between the producers of climate information and their end users, the communities at risk. The article urges the establishment of bridges that connect climate experts, policymakers, and representatives of the local communities, and for the implementation of a feedback loop from forecast users to their producers, in order to strengthen risk resilience across the GHA.

COVID-19 and Ecosyndemic Vulnerability: Implications for El Niño-Sensitive Countries in Latin America

Latin America has emerged as an epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.Brazil,Peru,and Ecuador report some of the highest COVID-19 rates of incidence and deaths in the region.These countries also face synergistic threats from multiple infectious diseases(that is,ecosyndemic)and quasi-periodic El Niño-related hazards every few years.For example,Peru,which is highly sensitive to El Niño,already copes with an ecosyndemic health burden that heightens during and following weather and climate extreme events.Using an ecosyndemic lens,which draws on a multi-disease hazard context of place,this commentary highlights the importance of El Niño as a major factor that not only may aggravate COVID-19 incidence in the future,but also the broader health problem of ecosyndemic vulnerability in Latin America.

From Yokohama to Sendai: Approaches to Participation in International Disaster Risk Reduction Frameworks

Taking the importance of local action as a starting point, this analysis traces the treatment of participation of local and community actors through the three international frameworks for disaster risk reduction(DRR): the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World, the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR). The study finds a concerning shift away from valuing local community input and toward promoting technological advances. Community actors went from valued partners with their own expertise and relevant beliefs in Yokohama Strategy to ‘‘aid recipients’ ’ to whom tailored risk information must be transmitted(in SFDRR). This shift may reflect the top-down nature of negotiated international agreements or a broader shift toward investments in technological solutions. Whatever the cause, given widespread recognition of the importance of local knowledge and participation and growing recognition of the importance of intra-community differences in vulnerability, it suggests the need for reconsideration of both the discourse and the practice of involving community-level actors in DRR planning and implementation.

From Top-Down to “Community-Centric” Approaches to Early Warning Systems: Exploring Pathways to Improve Disaster Risk Reduction Through Community Participation

Natural hazards and their related impacts can have powerful implications for humanity, particularly communities with deep reliance on natural resources. The development of effective early warning systems(EWS) can contribute to reducing natural hazard impacts on communities by improving risk reduction strategies and activities.However, current shortcomings in the conception and applications of EWS undermine risk reduction at the grassroots level. This article explores various pathways to involve local communities in EWS from top-down to more participatory approaches. Based on a literature review and three case studies that outline various levels of participation in EWS in Kenya, Hawai'i, and Sri Lanka, the article suggests a need to review the way EWS are designed and applied, promoting a shift from the traditional expert-driven approach to one that is embedded at the grassroots level and driven by the vulnerable communities. Such a community-centric approach also raises multiple challenges linked to a necessary shift of conception of EWS and highlights the need for more research on pathways for sustainable community engagement.

Analyzing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

On 11 March 2011,a massive,shallow earthquake off the east coast of Japan demonstrated the remarkable successes which that country has achieved in earthquake engineering.Building collapses tended to be mainly older structures while comparatively few deaths resulted from the shaking(including from landslides),illustrating how decades of initiatives and efforts in disaster risk reduction can reduce vulnerability,ensuring that a hazard does not

A new academic impact metric for evaluating geographic simulation models

Geographic simulation models can be used to explore and better understand the geographical environment. Recent advances in geographic and socio-environmental research have led to a dramatic increase in the number of models used for this purpose. Some model repositories provide opportunities for users to explore and apply models,but few provide a general evaluation method for assessing the applicability and recognition of models. In this study,an academic impact evaluation method for models is proposed. Five indices are designed based on their pertinence. The analytical hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weights,and the academic impacts of models are quantified with the weighted sum method. The time range is controlled to evaluate the life-term and annual academic impacts of the models. Some models that met the evaluation criteria from different domains are then evaluated. The results show that the academic impact of a model can be quantified with the proposed method,and the major research areas that models impact are identified.