The Persistence and Zonal Scale of Atmospheric Dipolar Modes

This study investigates the relationship between the persistence and the zonal scale of atmospheric dipolar modes(DMs). Results from the daily data of ERA5 and the long-term output of an idealized atmospheric model show that the atmospheric DMs with a broader(narrower) zonal scale dipolar structure possess a longer(shorter) persistence. A detailed vorticity budget analysis indicates that the persistence of a hemispheric-scale DM(1/1 DM) and a regional or sectoral DM(1/8 DM) in the model both largely rely on the persistence of the nonlinear eddy forcing. Linear terms can indirectly reduce the persistence of the anomalous nonlinear eddy forcing in a 1/8 DM by modifying the baroclinicity via the arousal of anomalous vertical motions. Therefore, the atmospheric DMs with a broader(narrower) zonal scale possess a longer(shorter) persistence because the effects of the linear terms are less(more) pronounced when the atmospheric DMs have better(worse) zonal symmetry. Further analyses show that the positive eddy feedback effect is weak or even absent in a 1/8DM and the high-frequency eddy forcing acts more like a concomitant phenomenon rather than a leading driving factor for a 1/8 DM. Thus, the hemispheric-scale DM and the regional or sectoral DMs are different, not only in their persistence but also in their dynamics.

Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG(GAMIL)

Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon （A-AM） precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation （IAV）, and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming （cooling） in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude： （1） successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; （2） more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; （3） the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.

Simulation of the Ecosystem Productivity Responses to Aerosol Diffuse Radiation Fertilization Effects over the Pan-Arctic during 2001–19

The pan-Arctic is confronted with air pollution transported from lower latitudes.Observations have shown that aerosols help increase plant photosynthesis through the diffuse radiation fertilization effects(DRFEs).While such DRFEs have been explored at low to middle latitudes,the aerosol impacts on pan-Arctic ecosystems and the contributions by anthropogenic and natural emission sources remain less quantified.Here,we perform regional simulations at 0.2o×0.2ousing a well-validated vegetation model(Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere,YIBs)in combination with multi-source of observations to quantify the impacts of aerosol DRFEs on the net primary productivity(NPP)in the pan-Arctic during 2001-19.Results show that aerosol DRFEs increase pan-Arctic NPP by 2.19 Pg C(12.8%)yr^(-1)under clear-sky conditions,in which natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to 8.9% and 3.9%,respectively.Under all-sky conditions,such DRFEs are largely dampened by cloud to only 0.26 Pg C(1.24%)yr^(-1),with contributions of 0.65% by natural and 0.59% by anthropogenic species.Natural aerosols cause a positive NPP trend of 0.022% yr^(-1)following the increased fire activities in the pan-Arctic.In contrast,anthropogenic aerosols induce a negative trend of-0.01% yr^(-1)due to reduced emissions from the middle latitudes.Such trends in aerosol DRFEs show a turning point in the year of 2007 with more positive NPP trends by natural aerosols but negative NPP trends by anthropogenic aerosols thereafter.Though affected by modeling uncertainties,this study suggests a likely increasing impact of aerosols on terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-Arctic under global warming.

Preface to the Special Issue on Causes, Impacts, and Predictability of Droughts for the Past, Present, and Future

Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years.

Computational Performance of the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model FAMIL

This paper describes the model speed and model In/Out （I/O） efficiency of the high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model FAMIL （Finite- volume Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG） at the National Supercomputer Center in Tianjin, China, on its Tianhe-lA supercomputer platform. A series of three- model-day simulations were carried out with standard Aqua Planet Experiment （APE） designed within FAMIL to obtain the time stamp for the calculation of model speed, simulation cost, and model 1/O efficiency. The results of the simulation demonstrate that FAMIL has remarkable scalability below 3456 and 6144 cores, and the lowest simulation costs are 1536 and 3456 cores for 12.5 km and 6.25 krn resolutions, respectively. Furthermore, FAMIL has excellent I/O scalability and an efficiency of more than 80% on 6 I/Os and more than 99% on 1536 I/Os.

Simulations of Aerosol Optical Properties to Top of Atmospheric Reflected Sunlight in the Near Infrared CO_2 Weak Absorption Band

Over the Asian continent,high aerosol loading is critical to ensure the high accuracy of CO_2 retrieval in the near infrared absorption band.Simulations were performed to explore the effect of light path modification by aerosol son the atmospheric CO_2 near infrared band(6140-6270 cm^(-1)).The Vector LInearized Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer(VLIDORT) model and the Line-By-Line Radiative Transfer Model(LBLRTM) were used for forward calculations.The U.S.standard atmosphere was used for atmospheric profiles.The results indicate that the aerosols caused similar effects to increases in CO_2 in the planetary boundary layer and became more significant with aerosol layer rising while aerosol optical depth was 0.1.This effect will cause an over estimation of the CO_2 mixing ratio in the retrieval process and an under estimation in the aerosol layer.The results also indicate that the effect of urban and industrial aerosols is smaller than that of non-absorbing and dust aerosols because of the nearly constant absorption properties in the near infrared band.

Quantifying the attribution of model bias in simulating summer hot days in China with IAP AGCM 4.1

Using lAP AGCM simulation results for the period 1961-2005, summer hot days in China were calculated and then compared with observations. Generally, the spatial pattern of hot days is reasonably reproduced, with more hot days found in northern China, the Yangtze and Huaihe River basin, the Chuan-Yu region, and southern Xinjiang. However, the model tends to overestimate the number of hot days in the above-mentioned regions, particularly in the Yangtze and Huaihe River basin where the simulated summer-mean hot days is 13 days more than observed when averaged over the whole region, and the maximum overestimation of hot days can reach 23 days in the region. Analysis of the probability distribution of daily maximum temperature （Trnax） suggests that the warm bias in the model-simulated Tmax contributes largely to the overestimation of hot days in the model. Furthermore, the discrepancy in the simulated variance of the Tmax distribution also plays a non- negligible role in the overestimation of hot days. Indeed, the latter can even account for 22% of the total bias of simulated hot days in August in the Yangtze and Huaihe River basin. The quantification of model bias from the mean value and variability can provide more information for further model improvement.

Preliminary Assessment of the Common Land Model Coupled with the IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

The Common Land Model(CoLM) was coupled with the IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model(IAPDGVM), and the performance of this combined CoLMIAP model was evaluated. Offline simulations using both the original Common Land Model(CoLM-LPJ) and CoLM-IAP were conducted. The CoLM-IAP coupled model showed a significant improvement over CoLMLPJ, as the deciduous tree distribution decreased over temperate and boreal regions, while the distribution of evergreen trees increased over the tropics. Some biases in CoLM-LPJ were preserved, including the overestimation of evergreen trees in tropical savanna, the underestimation of boreal evergreen trees, and the absence of boreal shrubs. However, most of these biases did not exist in a further coupled simulation of IAP-DGVM with the Community Land Model(CLM), for which the parameters of IAP-DGVM were optimized. This implies that further improvement is needed to deal with the differences between CoLM and CLM in parameterizations of landbased physical and biochemical processes.

New approach to incorporating the impacts of non-hydrostatic perturbations in atmospheric models

How to properly consider the impacts of non-hydrostatic perturbations is one of the challenging issues in developing non-hydrostatic dynamics solvers（NHDSs） for high-resolution atmospheric models. To overcome the drawbacks of current approaches to tackling this issue, this study analyzed the differences between hydrostatic dynamics solvers（HDSs） and their non-hydrostatic counterparts.The analysis then motivated a flexible approach to adjusting existing hydrostatic atmospheric models,especially those adopted in climate simulations for the impacts of non-hydrostatic perturbations.In this approach, the impacts of non-hydrostatic perturbations, reflecting the differences between HDSs and NHDSs, were encapsulated into a single term in the vertical momentum equation for the atmosphere. At each time step, this term was estimated by a separate sub-model, and then it was used to adjust the dynamics of the atmosphere. The adjustment was optional, and could be turned on and off flexibly by utilizing different initial conditions. The approach was illustrated using the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model as an example, and was preliminarily validated by running the 3D baroclinic-wave test case in the model. Results showed that the modified dynamics solver produced simulation results that were very close to those given by the standard NHDS in the WRF model, implying that the approach was basically effective in capturing the non-hydrostatic features of the atmosphere.

Asymmetry of Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific during Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Phases

It has been recognized that salinity variability in the tropical Pacific is closely related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).Here,we use model simulations from 1900 to 2017 to illustrate obvious asymmetries of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive and negative IPO phases.The amplitude of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive IPO phases is larger than that during negative IPO phases,with a more westward shift of a large Sea Surface Salinity(SSS)anomaly along the equator.Salinity budget analyses show that the asymmetry of salinity variability during positive and negative IPO phases is dominated by the difference in the surface forcing associated with the freshwater flux[FWF,precipitation(P)minus evaporation(E)],with a contribution of 40%–50%near the dateline on the equator.Moreover,the relationships between the salinity variability and its budget terms also show differences in their leadlag correlations during positive and negative IPO phases.These differences in salinity variability during different IPO phases produce asymmetric effects on seawater density which can reduce or enhance upper-ocean stratification.Therefore,the salinity effects may modulate the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),resulting in an enhanced(reduced)El Nino but a reduced(enhanced)La Ni?a during positive(negative)IPO phases by 1.6℃psu^(-1)(1.3℃psu^(-1)),respectively.It is suggested that the asymmetry of salinity variability may be related to the recent change in ENSO amplitude associated with the IPO,which can help elucidate ENSO diversity.

Multimodel ensemble projection of photovoltaic power potential in China by the 2060s

为了实现能源转型的目标,中国对太阳能的需求一直在极速增长.然而,太阳能发电潜力受到天气条件的影响并预期在气候变暖背景下发生改变.本文中,作者利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)24个气候模式的气象变量以及4个不同形式的光伏模型,预估了在2060年代低排放或高排放情况下中国的光伏发电潜力.多模式集合平均光伏功率在2004-2014年为277.2KWhm-2yr-1,并呈现出从西到东的下降趋势.到2054-2064年,在低排放情景下,全国平均光伏发电潜力将增加2.29%,而在高排放情景下则减少0.43%.低排放情景的排放控制大大增强了地表太阳辐射,促进了东部的光伏发电.相反,在高排放情景下,强烈的变暖对光伏发电产生了抑制作用.极端暖事件使光伏发电潜力在低排放情景下降低0.28%,而高排放情景下降低0.44%,分别相当于当代损失量的两倍和三倍.预估表明排放控制带来的清洁空气和适度变暖对中国未来的太阳能利用是有益的.

Shallow Convection Dataset Simulated by Three Different Large Eddy Models

Shallow convection plays an important role in transporting heat and moisture from the near-surface to higher altitudes,yet its parameterization in numerical models remains a great challenge,partly due to the lack of high-resolution observations.This study describes a large eddy simulation(LES)dataset for four shallow convection cases that differ primarily in inversion strength,which can be used as a surrogate for real data.To reduce the uncertainty in LES modeling,three different large eddy models were used,including SAM(System for Atmospheric Modeling),WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model),and UCLA-LES.Results show that the different models generally exhibit similar behavior for each shallow convection case,despite some differences in the details of the convective structure.In addition to grid-averaged fields,conditionally sampled variables,such as in-cloud moisture and vertical velocity,are also provided,which are indispensable for calculation of the entrainment/detrainment rate.Considering the essentiality of the entraining/detraining process in the parameterization of cumulus convection,the dataset presented in this study is potentially useful for validation and improvement of the parameterization of shallow convection.

Salinity effect-induced ENSO amplitude modulation in association with the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during 1901-2010.The simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO phases.Physically,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO variability.Salinity anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical Pacific.During positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO phases.Quantitatively,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,respectively.Evidently,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.

A Long-Time-Step-Permitting Tracer Transport Model on the Regular Latitude–Longitude Grid

If an explicit time scheme is used in a numerical model, the size of the integration time step is typically limited by the spatial resolution. This study develops a regular latitude–longitude grid-based global three-dimensional tracer transport model that is computationally stable at large time-step sizes. The tracer model employs a finite-volume flux-form semiLagrangian transport scheme in the horizontal and an adaptively implicit algorithm in the vertical. The horizontal and vertical solvers are coupled via a straightforward operator-splitting technique. Both the finite-volume scheme's onedimensional slope-limiter and the adaptively implicit vertical solver's first-order upwind scheme enforce monotonicity. The tracer model permits a large time-step size and is inherently conservative and monotonic. Idealized advection test cases demonstrate that the three-dimensional transport model performs very well in terms of accuracy, stability, and efficiency. It is possible to use this robust transport model in a global atmospheric dynamical core.

Sensitivity of the Upper Ocean Temperature and Circulation in the Equatorial Pacific to Solar Radiation Penetration Due to Phytoplankton

Solar radiation penetration in the upper ocean is strongly modulated by phytoplankton, which impacts the upper ocean temperature structure, especially in the regions abundant with phytoplankton. In the paper, a new solar radiation penetration scheme, based on the concentration of chlorophyll-a, was introduced into the LASG/IAP （State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics） Climate system Ocean Model （LICOM）. By comparing the simulations using this new scheme with those using the old scheme that included the constant e-folding attenuation depths in LICOM, it was found that the sea surface temperature （SST） and circulation in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were both sensitive to the amount of phytoplankton present. Distinct from other regions, the increase of chlorophyll-a concentration would lead to SST decrease in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The higher chlorophyll-a concentration at the equator in comparison to the off-equator regions can enlarge the subsurface temperature gradient, which in turn strengthens the upper current near the equator and induces an enhancing upwelling. The enhancing upwelling can then lead to a decrease in the SST in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The results of these two sensitive experiments testify to the fact that the meridional gradient in the chlorophyll-a concentration can result in an enhancement in the upper current and a decrease in the SST, along with the observation that a high chlorophyll-a concentration at the equator is one of the predominant reasons leading to a decrease in the SST. This study points out that these results can be qualitatively different simply because of the choice of the solar radiation penetration schemes for comparison. This can help explain previously reported contradictory conclusions.

Coupled Model Simulations of Climate Changes in the 20th Century and Beyond

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report （AR4） are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model （FGOALS） developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IAP/CAS）, including the ＂Climate of the 20th century experiment＂, ＂CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment＂ and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios AIB and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show： （1） from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temper- ature increases about 0.5℃ and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model＇s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; （2） the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6℃ in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5℃ and 2.4℃ in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG/IAP

Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.

The Relationship between the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet and Summer Precipitation over East Asia as Simulated by the IAP AGCM4.0

Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) and summer precipitation over East Asia has been investigated, and compared with observation. It was found the meridional displacement of the EASWJ has a closer relationship with the precipitation over East Asia both from model simulation and observation, with an anomalous southward shift of EASWJ being conducive to rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV), and an anomalous northward shift resulting in less rainfall over the YHRV. However, the simulated precipitation anomalies were found to be weaker than observed from the composite analysis, and this would be related to the weakly reproduced mid-upper-level convergence in the mid-high latitudes and ascending motion in the lower latitudes.

Evaluation of Surface Relative Humidity in China from the CRA-40 and Current Reanalyses

Recently,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)released a new Global Atmospheric Reanalysis(CRA-40)dataset for the period 1979−2018.In this study,surface relative humidity(RH)from CRA-40 and other current reanalyses(e.g.,CFSR,ERA5,ERA-Interim,JRA-55,and MERRA-2)is comprehensively evaluated against homogenized observations over China.The results suggest that most reanalyses overestimate the observations by 15%−30%(absolute difference)over the Tibetan Plateau but underestimate the observations by 5%−10%over most of northern China.The CRA-40 performs relatively well in describing the long-term change and variance seen in the observed surface RH over China.Most of the reanalyses reproduce the observed surface RH climatology and interannual variations well,while few reanalyses can capture the observed long-term RH trends over China.Among these reanalyses,the CFSR does poorly in describing the interannual changes in the observed RH,especially in Southwest China.An empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis also suggests that the CRA-40 performs better than other reanalyses to capture the first two leading EOF modes revealed by the observations.The results of this study are expected to improve understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the current reanalysis products and thus facilitate their application.

RESEARCH ON THE INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THEIR IMPACTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

In this paper, we mainly summarize and review the progresses in recent climatological studies(by CMSR,IAP/CAS and some associated domestic and international institutions) on the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of monsoon troughs and their impacts on tropical cyclones and typhoons(TCs) geneses over the western North Pacific Ocean. The climatological characteristics of monsoon troughs and four types of circulation patterns favorable to TCs genesis over the western North Pacific Ocean in summer and autumn are given in this paper. It is also shown in this paper that the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean has obvious interannual and interdecadal variabilities. Especially, it is revealed in this paper that the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean influence the TCs genesis not only through the impact on distributions of the vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, the water vapor in the mid-and lower troposphere and the vertical shear of wind fields between the upper and lower troposphere over the western North Pacific Ocean, but also through the dynamical effects of the transition between convectively coupled tropical waves and providing disturbance energy. Besides, some climatological problems associated with TCs activity over the western North Pacific Ocean that need to be studied further are also pointed out in this paper.