SATELLITE-BASED ANALYSIS ON THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OF SUPER TYPHOON MUIFA (1109)

Multisatellite data is used to analyze the characteristics of three eyewall replacement cycles(ERCs) during the lifetime of Typhoon Muifa(1109).Spiral rainbands evolutions,concentric eyewall(CE) structure modes,CE durations,and intensity changes are discussed in detail.In addition,an ERC evolution model of Typhoon Muifa is given.There are four main findings.(1) The outer spiral rainband joins end to end to form the outer eyewall after it disconnects from the original(inner) eyewall.The inner eyewall weakens as the outer eyewall becomes axisymmetric and is intensified.The contraction of the outer eyewall causes the inner eyewall to dissipate rapidly.Finally,the ERC ends with an annular eyewall or spiral rainbands.(2) Although the CE duration times of Typhoon Muifa's three ERCs covered a large range,the CE structures were all maintained for approximately 5 h from the formation of the axisymmetric outer eyewall to the end of the cycle.(3) There is no obvious precipitation reflectivity in the eye or moat region for the subsidence flow.The convection within the two eyewalls is organized as a radially outward slope with increasing height.(4) Typhoon intensity estimation results based on ADT may not explain the intensity variations associated with ERC correctly,while the typhoon's warm core data retrieved from AMSU-A works well.

Parameterized Forward Operators for Simulation and Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data with Numerical Weather Predictions

Many weather radar networks in the world have now provided polarimetric radar data(PRD)that have the potential to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation microphysics,and numerical weather prediction(NWP).To realize this potential,an accurate and efficient set of polarimetric observation operators are needed to simulate and assimilate the PRD with an NWP model for an accurate analysis of the model state variables.For this purpose,a set of parameterized observation operators are developed to simulate and assimilate polarimetric radar data from NWP model-predicted hydrometeor mixing ratios and number concentrations of rain,snow,hail,and graupel.The polarimetric radar variables are calculated based on the T-matrix calculation of wave scattering and integrations of the scattering weighted by the particle size distribution.The calculated polarimetric variables are then fitted to simple functions of water content and volumeweighted mean diameter of the hydrometeor particle size distribution.The parameterized PRD operators are applied to an ideal case and a real case predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to have simulated PRD,which are compared with existing operators and real observations to show their validity and applicability.The new PRD operators use less than one percent of the computing time of the old operators to complete the same simulations,making it efficient in PRD simulation and assimilation usage.

Numerical Simulation on Development Mechanism of Meso-β Scale Flow Field During a Heavy Rain Process in Henan Area

Numerical simulation of a heavy rainfall case in Henan area during 16-17 July 2004 is performed using the LASG （State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics） mesoscale model AREM （Advanced Regional Eta Model） developed by Yu （1989） and Yu et al. （1994）. The results are shown： the air in the middle part of troposphere within the horizontal range of meso-β scale convective system is heated by condensation latent heat. The isobaric surface in the middle and upper part of troposphere is rising, and thus meso-β scale high is formed; the isobaric surface in the lower part of troposphere is depressed, and thus meso-β high and low layer flow promotes the strong development scale low is formed. The interaction between the of the vertical motion. While the rising motion is developing strongly, obvious compensation sinking motion appears around it. In the south of rising motion region, the divergence current in the upper part of troposphere backflows towards south, which leads to the vertical circulation appearing in the upper part of troposphere. The sinking branch of the circulation integrates in the compensation sinking air current in the south of rising motion region and takes the horizontal momentum of upper air to the lower part of troposphere and forms a new meso-β scale jet. In the north of the rising motion region, a mesoscale vertical circulation develops in the low layer of troposphere. The divergence current of the sinking branch of the circulation, which flows southward, converges with warm and humid air current in the low layer of troposphere which flows from southwest, and forms a meso-β scale convergence line. Then it strengthens the convergence over the low level of heavy rain area. In the east of the rising motion region, a mesoscale vertical circulation also develops in low layer of troposphere. The divergence current of the sinking branch of the circulation, which flows westward, causes originally more consistent southwest air current in this region to the east deflection, and thus forms the cyclone curve in the southwest air current. The convergence is further strengthened in the meso-β scale convergence line. The strong development of ageostrophic vorticity in the lower part of troposphere is the important factor of the formation of the meso-β scale cyclone. At last the three-dimensional structure chart of development of heavy rain meso-β scale stream filed is given.

Using a mesoscale ensemble to predict forecast error and perform targeted observation

Using NCEP short range ensemble forecast（SREF） system,demonstrated two fundamental on-going evolutions in numerical weather prediction（NWP） are through ensemble methodology.One evolution is the shift from traditional single-value deterministic forecast to flow-dependent（not statistical） probabilistic forecast to address forecast uncertainty.Another is from a one-way observation-prediction system shifting to an interactive two-way observation-prediction system to increase predictability of a weather system.In the first part,how ensemble spread from NCEP SREF predicting ensemble-mean forecast error was evaluated over a period of about a month.The result shows that the current capability of predicting forecast error by the 21-member NCEP SREF has reached to a similar or even higher level than that of current state-of-the-art NWP models in predicting precipitation,e.g.,the spatial correlation between ensemble spread and absolute forecast error has reached 0.5 or higher at 87 h（3.5 d） lead time on average for some meteorological variables.This demonstrates that the current operational ensemble system has already had preliminary capability of predicting the forecast error with usable skill,which is a remarkable achievement as of today.Given the good spread-skill relation,the probability derived from the ensemble was also statistically reliable,which is the most important feature a useful probabilistic forecast should have.The second part of this research tested an ensemble-based interactive targeting（E-BIT） method.Unlike other mathematically-calculated objective approaches,this method is subjective or human interactive based on information from an ensemble of forecasts.A numerical simulation study was performed to eight real atmospheric cases with a 10-member,bred vector-based mesoscale ensemble using the NCEP regional spectral model（RSM,a sub-component of NCEP SREF） to prove the concept of this E-BIT method.The method seems to work most effective for basic atmospheric state variables,moderately effective for convective instabilities and least effective for precipitations.Precipitation is a complex result of many factors and,therefore,a more challenging field to be improved by targeted observation.

High-Resolution Mesoscale Analysis Data from the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment （SCHeREX）： Data Generation and Quality Evaluation

In this study, the observational data acquired in the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment （SCHeREX） from May to July 2008 and 2009 were integrated and assimilated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration＇s （NOAA） Local Analysis and Prediction System （LAPS; information available online at http：//laps.fsl.noaa.gov）. A high-resolution mesoscale analysis dataset was then generated at a spatial resolution of 5 km and a temporal resolution of 3 h in four observational areas： South China, Central China, Jianghuai area, and Yangtze River Delta area. The quality of this dataset was evaluated as follows. First, the dataset was qualitatively compared with radar reflectivity and TBB image for specific heavy rainfall events so as to examine its capability in reproduction of mesoscale systems. The results show that the SCHeREX analysis dataset has a strong capability in capturing severe mesoscale convective systems. Second, the mean deviation and root mean square error of the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis fields were analyzed and compared with radiosonde data. The results reveal that the errors of geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity, and wind of the SCHeREX analysis were within the acceptable range of observation errors. In particular, the average error was 45 m for geopotential height between 700 and 925 hPa, 1.0-1.1°C for temperature, less than 20% for relative humidity, 1.5-2.0 m s-1 for wind speed, and 20-25° for wind direction. The above results clearly indicate that the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis dataset is of high quality and sufficient reliability, and it is applicable to refined mesoscale weather studies.

Precipitation Structures of a Thermal Convective System Happened in the Central Western Subtropical Pacific Anticyclone

In this paper, characteristics of precipitating clouds in a thermal convective system （TCS） occurred in the southeastern mainland of China at 15：00 BT （Beijing time） on August 2, 2003 in the central western subtropical Pacific anticyclone （WSPA） is studied by using TRMM tropical rainfallmeasuring mission PR （precipitution radar） and IR Infrared radiation measurements. The precipitating cloud structures in both horizontal and vertical, relationship among storm top, cloud top, and surface rain rate are particularly analyzed. Results show that a strong ascending air at 500 hPa and a strong convergence of moisture flux at 850 hPa in the central WSPA supply necessary conditions both in dynamics and moisture for the happening of the TCS precipitation. The TRMM PR observation shows that the horizontal scale of the most TCS precipitating clouds is about 30-40 kin, their averaged vertical scale is above 10 kin, and the maximum reaches 17.5 kin. The maximum rain rate near surface of those TCS clouds is beyond 50 mm h^-1. The mean rain profile of the TCS clouds shows that its maximum rain rate at 5 km altitude is i km lower than the estimated freezing level of the environment. Compared with the mesoscale convective system （MCS） of ＂98.7.20＂, both systems have the same altitude of the maximum rain rate displayed from both mean rain profiles, but the TCS is much deeper than the MCS. From the altitude of the maximum rain rate to near surface, profiles show that rain rate reducing in the TCS is faster than that in the MCS, which implies a strong droplet evaporation process occurring in the TCS. Relationship among cloud top, storm top, and surface rain rate analysis indicates a large variation of cloud top when storm top is lower. On the contrary, the higher the storm top, the more consistent both cloud top and storm top. And, the larger the surface rain rate, the higher and more consistent for both cloud top and storm top. At the end, results expose that area fractions of non-precipitating clouds and clear sky are 86% and 2%, respectively. The area fraction of precipitating clouds is only about 1/8 that of non-precipitating clouds.

A Diagnostic and Numerical Study on a Rainstorm in South China Induced by a Northward-Propagating Tropical System

A strong cyclonic wind perturbation generated in the northern South China Sea （SCS） moved northward quickly and developed into a mesoscale vortex in southwest Guangdong Province, and then merged with a southward-moving shear line from mid latitudes in the period of 21-22 May 2006, during which three strong mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） formed and brought about torrential rain or even cloudburst in South China. With the 1° ×1° NCEP （National Centers for Environment Prediction） reanalysis data and the Weather and Research Forecast （WRF） mesoscale model, a numerical simulation, a potential vorticity inversion analysis, and some sensitivity experiments are carried out to reveal the formation mechanism of this rainfall event. In the meantime, conventional observations, satellite images, and the WRF model outputs are also utilized to perform a preliminary dynamic and thermodynamic diagnostic analysis of the rainstorm systems. It is found that the torrential rain occurred in favorable synoptic conditions such as warm and moist environment, low lifting condensation level, and high convective instability. The moisture transport by strong southerly winds associated with the rapid northward advance of the cyclonic wind perturbation over the northern SCS provided the warm and moist condition for the formation of the excessive rain. Under the dynamic steering of a southwesterly flow ahead of a north trough and that on the southwest side of the West Pacific subtropical high, the mesoscale vortex （or the cyclonic wind perturbation）, after its genesis, moved northward and brought about enormous rain in most parts of Guangdong Province through providing certain lifting forcing for the triggering of mesoscale convection. During the development of the mesoscale vortex, heavy rainfall was to a certain extent enhanced by the mesoscale topography of the Yunwu Mountain in Guangdong. The effect of the Yunwu Mountain is found to vary under different prevailing wind directions and intensities. The location of the heavy rainfall was in a degree determined by the trumpet-shaped topography of the Zhujiang Delta. It is identified that the topographic effect on precipitation depends on the relative position between the terrain and the mesoscale storm systems. The short distance from the SCS to South China facilitates the moisture transport, which offers ease for the heavy rain to form in South China. Finally, the role played by land-sea contrast in the fast intensification of the MCSs in South China is not yet clear, and the interaction between the MCSs and the mesoscale vortex needs to be clarified as well.

A Case Study on a Quasi-Stationary Meiyu Front Bringing About Continuous Rainstorms with Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion

A 4-day persistent rainstorm resulting in serious flooding disasters occurred in the north of Fujian Province under the influences of a quasi-stationary Meiyu front during 5-8 June 2006. With 1°× 1° latitude and longitude NCEP reanalysis data and the ground surface rainfall, using the potential vorticity （PV） analysis and PV inversion method, the evolution of main synoptic systems, and the corresponding PV and PV perturbation （or PV anomalies） and their relationship with heavy rainfall along the Meiyu front are analyzed in order to investigate the physical mechanism of the formation, development, and maintenance of the Meiyu front. Furthermore, the PV perturbations related to different physics are separated to investigate their different roles in the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The results show： the formation and persistence of the Meiyu front in a quasi-WE orientation are mainly due to the maintenance of the high-pressure systems in its south/north sides （the West Pacific subtropical high/ the high pressure band extending from the Korean Peninsula to east of North China）. The Meiyu front is closely associated with the PV in the lower troposphere. The location of the positive PV perturbation on the Meiyu front matches well with the main heavy rainfall area along the Meiyu front. The PV inversion reveals that the balanced winds satisfying the nonlinear balanced assumption represent to a large extent the real atmospheric flow and its evolution basically reflects the variation of stream flow associated with the Meiyu front. The unbalanced flow forms the convergence band of the Meiyu front and it mainly comes from the high-pressure system in the north side of the Meiyu front. The positive PV perturbation related to latent heat release in the middle-lower troposphere is one of the main factors influencing the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The positive vorticity band from the total balanced winds is in accordance with the Meiyu front band and the magnitude of the positive vorticity from the balanced wind is very close to that from real winds. The PV perturbation in the boundary layer is to a certain degree favorable for the formation and development of Meiyu front. In general, the lower boundary potential temperature perturbation is not beneficial to the formation and development, which is attributed to the relatively low surface temperature due to surface evaporation and solar short-wave radiation reduction shaded by clouds on the Meiyu front band, however, it has some diurnal variation. The effect of PV perturbation in the upper troposphere on the formation and development of the Meiuyu front is relatively weaker than others＇ and not beneficial to the formation and development of the Meiyu front, but it is enhanced in the period of Meiyu front＇s fast southward movement when the deep North China trough develops and moves southeastward. Rest PV perturbation unrelated to latent heat release in the middle-lower troposphere plays a certain role in the Meiyu front＇s fast southward movement. Lastly, it should be pointed out that the different PV perturbations maybe play a different role in different stages of the Meiyu front development.

Numerical Research on Effects Upon Precipitation Forecast of Doppler-Radar Estimated Precipitation and Retrieved Wind Field Under Different Model Initial Schemes

On the basis of the joint estimated 1-h precipitation from Changde, Jingzhou, and Yichang Doppler radars as well as Wuhan digital radar, and the retrieved wind fields from Yichang and Jingzhou Doppler radars, a series of numerical experiments with an advanced regional η-coordinate model （AREM） under different model initial schemes, i.e., Grapes-3DVAR, Barnes objective analysis, and Barnes-3DVAR, are carried out for a torrential rain process occurring along the Yangtze River in the 24-h period from 2000 BT 22 July 2002 to investigate the effects of the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds on the rainfall forecast. The main results are as follows： （1） The simulations are obviously different under three initial schemes with the same data source （the radiosounding and T213L31 analysis）. On the whole, Barnes-3DVAR, which combines the advantages of the Barnes objective analysis and the Grapes-3DVAR method, gives the best simulations： well-simulated rain band and clear mesoscale structures, as well as their location and intensity close to observations. （2） Both Barnes-3DVAR and Grapes-3DVAR schemes are able to assimilate the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds, but differences in simulation results are very large, with Barnes-3DVAR＇s simulation much better than Grapes-3DVAR＇s. （3） Under Grapes- 3DVAR scheme, the simulation of 24-h rainfall is improved obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation into the model in compared with the control experiment; but it becomes a little worse when assimilating the Doppler-radar retrieved winds into the model, and it becomes worse obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation as well as retrieved winds into the model. However, the simulation is different under Barnes-3DVAR scheme. The simulation is improved to a certain degree no matter assimilating the estimated precipitation or retrieved winds, or both of them. The result is the best when assimilating both of them into the model. And （4） Barnes-3DVAR is a new and efficient initial scheme for assimilating the radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds.