Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

Organic Matter Accumulation in the Upper Permian Dalong Formation from the Lower Yangtze Region,South China

The Late Permian was marked by a series of important geological events and widespread organic-rich black shale depositions,acting as important unconventional hydrocarbon source rocks.However,the mechanism of organic matter(OM)enrichment throughout this period is still controversial.Based on geochemical data,the marine redox conditions,paleogeographic and hydrographic environment,primary productivity,volcanism,and terrigenous input during the Late Permian in the Lower Yangtze region have been studied from the Putaoling section,Chaohu,to provide new insights into OM accumulation.Five Phases are distinguished based on the TOC and environmental variations.In Phase I,anoxic conditions driven by water restriction enhanced OM preservation.In Phase II,euxinic and cycling hydrological environments were the two most substantial controlling factors for the massive OM deposition.During Phase III,intensified terrestrial input potentially diluted the OM in sediment and the presence of oxygen in bottom water weakened the preservation condition.Phase IV was characterized by a relatively higher abundance of mercury(Hg)and TOC(peak at 16.98 wt%),indicating that enhanced volcanism potentially stimulated higher productivity and a euxinic environment.In Phase V,extremely lean OM was preserved as a result of terrestrial dilutions and decreasing primary productivity.Phases I,II and IV are characterized as the most prominent OM-rich zones due to the effective interactions of the controlling factors,namely paleogeographic,hydrographic environment,volcanism,and redox conditions.

A comprehensive framework for assessing the spatial drivers of flood disasters using an Optimal Parameter-based Geographical Detector-machine learning coupled model

Flood disasters pose serious threats to human life and property worldwide.Exploring the spatial drivers of flood disasters on a macroscopic scale is of great significance for mitigating their impacts.This study proposes a comprehensive framework for integrating driving-factor optimization and interpretability,while considering spatial heterogeneity.In this framework,the Optimal Parameter-based Geographic Detector(OPGD),Recursive Feature Estimation(RFE),and Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LGBM)models were utilized to construct the OPGD–RFE–LGBM coupled model to identify the essential driving factors and simulate the spatial distribution of flood disasters.The SHapley Additive ExPlanation(SHAP)interpreter was employed to quantitatively explain the driving mechanisms behind the spatial distribution of flood disasters.Yunnan Province,a typical mountainous and plateau area in Southwest China,was selected to implement the proposed framework and conduct a case study.For this purpose,a flood disaster inventory of 7332 historical events was prepared,and 22 potential driving factors related to precipitation,surface environment,and human activity were initially selected.Results revealed that flood disasters in Yunnan Province exhibit high spatial heterogeneity,with geomorphic zoning accounting for 66.1%of the spatial variation in historical flood disasters.The OPGD–RFE–LGBM coupled model offers clear advantages over a single LGBM in identifying essential driving factors and quantitatively analyzing their impacts.Moreover,the simulation performance shows a slight improvement(a 6%average decrease in RMSE and an average increase of 1%in R2)even with reduced factor data.Factor explanatory analysis indicated that the combination of the essential driving factor sets varied across different subregions;nevertheless,precipitation-related factors,such as precipitation intensity index(SDII),wet days(R10MM),and 5-day maximum precipitation(RX5day),were the main driving factors controlling flood disasters.This study provides a quantitative analytical framework for the spatial drivers of flood disasters at large scales with significant heterogeneity,offering a reference for disaster management authorities in developing macro-strategies for disaster prevention.

Achievements and challenges of primate conservation in China

The dual impact of climate change and human activities has precipitated a sharp decline in primate biodiversity globally.China is home to the most diverse primate species in the Northern hemisphere,which face severe ecological threats due to the expansion of modern agriculture,extensive exploitation and consumption of natural resources,and excessive land development during its transition from an agricultural to a modern society.In response,China has implemented various ecological conservation measures,including habitat restoration and protection.These efforts have made substantial strides in biodiversity conservation,with certain regions witnessing an increase in primate populations.In the current study,we conducted a systematic review of historical documents and field research data related to Chinese primates,evaluating the endangered status of primate species in China.Despite improvements in the habitats of most primate species and some population growth,many species still face severe threats,including declining and small populations.Species such as the Myanmar snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus strykeri),eastern black crested gibbon(Nomascus nasutus),and Hainan gibbon(N.hainanus)remain particularly vulnerable due to their limited distribution ranges and extremely small populations.Insufficient scientific data,fragmented information,and not enough studies in conservation biology further compound the challenges.Moreover,there is a notable lack of detailed population monitoring data for species such as the Bengal slow loris(Nycticebus bengalensis),pygmy slow loris(N.pygmaeus),Indochinese gray langur(Trachypithecus crepusculus),Shortridge’s langur(T.shortridgei),and capped langur(T.pileatus),which hinders the development of practical and targeted conservation management strategies.Therefore,for national biodiversity conservation,there is an urgent need for specialized primate surveys,enhancing habitat protection and restoration,and increasing focus on cross-border conservation strategies and regional cooperation.There is also a need to establish a comprehensive and systematic research database platform,conduct continuous and in-depth research in primate biology,and actively engage in the scientific assessment of ecotourism.Additionally,strengthening public awareness and education on wildlife conservation remains essential.Such integrated and systematic efforts will provide scientific support for the current and future conservation and management of primate species in China.

A 217-year precipitation reconstruction in the Habahe area, Xinjiang, Northeast China

Evaluating long-term changes in precipitation resources is important for accurate hydrological evaluation and forecasting,water security and rational allocation of water resources.For this purpose in the Xinjiang Habahe area,tree-ring specimens were collected from Picea obo-vata,Larix sibirica,and Betula platyphylla to establish a tree-ring width chronology,which was used to analyse a correlation with the average temperature and precipitation per month for 1958-2016.Based on correlation coefficients for monthly temperature and precipitation with the chro-nology of tree-ring widths,radial tree growth was mainly restricted by precipitation,and tree-ring width chronology was significantly correlated with overall precipitation from the previous July to the next June(r=0.641,P<0.01).The above results were used to establish a transformation equa-tion,and the overall precipitation from the previous July to the following June from 1800 to 2016 in Habahe was reconstructed after adjusted degrees of freedom,and obtain an explanatory rate of the variation up to 41.1%(40.0%).In addition to the reliability of the reconstructed values,the stability of the conversion function was determined via the“leave-one-out”method,which is commonly used in research on tree rings,and by cross-checking the conversion function with the reduced error value(RE),product mean test(t),with a sign test(ST).During the last 217 years,there were nine dry periods:1803-1829,1861-1865,1872-1885,1892-1905,1916-1923,1943-1954,1961-1966,1973-1981,and 2005-2011;and 12 wet periods:1830-1834,1836-1860,1866-1871,1886-1891,1906-1915,1925-1930,1934-1942,1955-1960,1967-1972,1982-1996,2000-2004,and 2012-2016.Comparisons of the reconstruc-tions for neighboring regions and a spatial correlation analy-sis showed that the reconstructed sequence of the present precipitation data better represented the changes in precipi-tation in Habahe.Additionally,a power spectrum analysis revealed that precipitation over the past 217 years in Habahe Province exhibited 2-5 years of quasiperiodic variation.A power spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis indicated that El Niño-Southern Oscillation influenced the precipitation cycles.This reconstruction provides more information on high-frequency precipitation,which is an important supple-ment to the existing tree-ring reconstruction of precipitation in the study area.The reconstruction of regional high-resolu-tion precipitation changes over the last several hundred years provides unique,important data for understanding regional differences in climate at the decadal-centennial scale.

Influence of Various Earth-Retaining Walls on the Dynamic Response Comparison Based on 3D Modeling

The present work aims to assess earthquake-induced earth-retaining(ER)wall displacement.This study is on the dynamics analysis of various earth-retaining wall designs in hollow precast concrete panels,reinforcement concrete facing panels,and gravity-type earth-retaining walls.The finite element(FE)simulations utilized a 3D plane strain condition to model full-scale ER walls and numerous nonlinear dynamics analyses.The seismic performance of differentmodels,which includes reinforcement concrete panels and gravity-type and hollowprecast concrete ER walls,was simulated and examined using the FE approach.It also displays comparative studies such as stress distribution,deflection of the wall,acceleration across the wall height,lateral wall displacement,lateral wall pressure,and backfill plastic strain.Three components of the created ER walls were found throughout this research procedure.One is a granular reinforcement backfill,while the other is a wall-facing panel and base foundation.The dynamic response effects of varied earth-retaining walls have also been studied.It was discovered that the facing panel of the model significantly impacts the earthquake-induced displacement of ER walls.The proposed analytical model’s validity has been evaluated and compared with the reinforcement concrete facing panels,gravity-type ER wall,scientifically available data,and American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials(AASHTO)guidelines results based on FE simulation.The results of the observations indicate that the hollow prefabricated concrete ER wall is the most feasible option due to its lower displacement and high-stress distribution compared to the two types.The methodology and results of this study establish standards for future analogous investigations and professionals,particularly in light of the increasing computational capabilities of desktop computers.

Spatiotemporal pattern of climate change in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor from 1901 to 2018

The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC) is an important part of China's Belt and Road Initiative and an important area for global ecology and biodiversity. In this study, the annual and seasonal spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation in the CMEC over the past century were investigated using linear tendency estimation, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, the T-test, and wavelet analysis based on the monthly mean climatic data from 1901 to 2018 released by the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) of the University of East Anglia, UK. The results show that the CMEC demonstrated a trend of warming and drying over the past 100 years, and the rate of change in Myanmar was stronger than that in Yunnan Province of China. The warming rate was 0.039 ℃/10a. Precipitation decreased at a rate of -6.1 mm/10a. From the perspective of spatial distribution, temperature was high in the central and southern, low in the north of the CMEC, and the high-temperature centers were mainly distributed in the southern plain and river valley. Precipitation decreased from west to east and from south to north of the CMEC. From the perspective of the rate of change, warming was stronger in central and northern CMEC than in southern and northeastern CMEC. The rate of precipitation decline was stronger in the central and western regions than in the eastern region. This study provides a scientific reference for the CMEC to address climate change and ensure sustainable social and economic development and ecological security.

Spatial Downscaling of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Using Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging over the Lancang River Basin, China

Satellite-based precipitation products have been widely used to estimate precipitation, especially over regions with sparse rain gauge networks. However, the low spatial resolution of these products has limited their application in localized regions and watersheds.This study investigated a spatial downscaling approach, Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging(GWRK), to downscale the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) 3 B43 Version 7 over the Lancang River Basin(LRB) for 2001–2015. Downscaling was performed based on the relationships between the TRMM precipitation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), the Land Surface Temperature(LST), and the Digital Elevation Model(DEM). Geographical ratio analysis(GRA) was used to calibrate the annual downscaled precipitation data, and the monthly fractions derived from the original TRMM data were used to disaggregate annual downscaled and calibrated precipitation to monthly precipitation at 1 km resolution. The final downscaled precipitation datasets were validated against station-based observed precipitation in 2001–2015. Results showed that: 1) The TRMM 3 B43 precipitation was highly accurate with slight overestimation at the basin scale(i.e., CC(correlation coefficient) = 0.91, Bias = 13.3%). Spatially, the accuracies of the upstream and downstream regions were higher than that of the midstream region. 2) The annual downscaled TRMM precipitation data at 1 km spatial resolution obtained by GWRK effectively captured the high spatial variability of precipitation over the LRB. 3) The annual downscaled TRMM precipitation with GRA calibration gave better accuracy compared with the original TRMM dataset. 4) The final downscaled and calibrated precipitation had significantly improved spatial resolution, and agreed well with data from the validated rain gauge stations, i.e., CC = 0.75, RMSE(root mean square error) = 182 mm, MAE(mean absolute error) = 142 mm, and Bias = 0.78%for annual precipitation and CC = 0.95, RMSE = 25 mm, MAE = 16 mm, and Bias = 0.67% for monthly precipitation.

Identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of individual red bed landslides: a case study in Western Yunnan, China

Strata in red bed areas have typical characteristics of soft-hard interbedding and high sensitivity to water. Under the comprehensive action of internal stratigraphic structure and external hydrological factors, red bed landslides have highly complex spatiotemporal characteristics, presenting significant challenges to the prevention and control of landslide disasters in red bed areas, especially for slope and tunnel engineering projects. In this study, we applied an interdisciplinary approach combining small baseline subset interferometric synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-InSAR), deep displacement monitoring, and engineering geological surveying to identify the deformation mechanisms and spatiotemporal characteristics of the Abi landslide, an individual landslide that occurred in the red bed area of Western Yunnan, China. Surface deformation time series indicated that a basic deformation range developed by March 2020. Based on In SAR results and engineering geological analysis, the landslide surface could be divided into three zones: an upper sliding zone(US), a lower uplifted zone(LU), and a toe zone(Toe). LU was affected by the structure of the sliding bed with variable inclination. Using deep displacement curves combined with the geological profile, a set of sliding surfaces were identified between different lithology. The groundwater level standardization index(GLSI) and deformation normalization index(DNI) showed different quadratic relationships between US and LU. Verification using the Pearson correlation analysis shows that the correlation coefficients between model calculated results and measured data are 0.7933 and 0.7577, respectively, indicating that the DNI-GLSI models are applicable. A fast and short-lived deformation sub stage(ID-Fast) in the initial deformation stage was observed, and ID-Fast was driven by concentrated rainfall.

August–September Runoff Variation in the Kara Darya River Determined from Juniper(Juniperus turkestanica) Tree Rings in the Pamirs-Alai Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, Back to 1411 CE

A 606 year runoff reconstruction of the Kara Darya River was developed, based on the tree-ring width chronology of Turkestan juniper(Juniperus turkestanica) from the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Kyrgyzstan. Preliminary comparison between the snow cover variation and these climate/runoff reconstructions found that Central Asian snow cover may have strong associations with large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land circulations. The runoff reconstruction demonstrated that instrumental runoff was not representative of runoff over the past 606 years. The drought of the 1960 s-1990 s resulted in low runoff levels during the past 50 years;however, this probably does not represent a worst-case scenario for the Kara Darya because the runoff reconstruction showed additional extremely low runoff prior to the 20 th century. The reconstruction will provide a long-term perspective on runoff variation in the Kara Darya River basin, aid sustainable water resource management and be useful in guiding expectations of future variations and water resource planning.

Comprehensive Assessment of Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Yunnan Province

Based on the concept and connotation of water environment carrying capacity, taking Yunnan Province as a case, this paper built water environment carrying capacity evaluation system from the perspectives of water resources, water environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development, and applied the index evaluation model to analyze the trends of water environment carrying capacity in Yunnan from 2006 to 2014. The results showed that, during those years, the evaluation value of water environment carrying capacity ranged from 0.23 to 0.46 in Yunnan Province.The minimum value was 0.23 in 2013, the maximum value was 0.46 in 2010. From 2006 to 2014, the evaluation value of water environment carrying capacity was less than 0.5 in general, and the water environment in a fragile state on the whole.

Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin(Hindukush Region of Pakistan)between 2001 and 2018

Glaciers in the northern Pakistan are a distinctive source of freshwater for the irrigation,drinking and industrial water supplies of the people living in those regions and downstream. These glaciers are under a direct global warming impact as indicated in many previous studies. In this study, we estimated the glacier dynamics in terms of Equilibrium Line Altitude(ELA), mass balance and the snout position variation using remote sensing data between 2001 and 2018. Six glaciers, having area≥ 20 km2 each, situated in the Chitral region(Hindukush Mountains) were investigated in this study. Digital Elevation Model(DEM) and available cloud-free continuous series of Landsat and Sentinel satellite images from minimum snow cover season were used to monitor the variability in the studied glaciers by keeping the status of glaciers in year 2001 as a reference. The annual climatic trends of mean temperature and total precipitation from Chitral weather station were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall’s test. Results revealed a general increase in the ELA, decrease in the glacier mass balance and the retreat of snout position.Average upward shift in the ELA for the entire study area and data period was ~345 ± 93 m at a rate of^13 m.a-1 from the reference year’s position i.e.~4803 m asl. Estimated mean mass balance for the entire study area indicated a decline of-0.106 ± 0.295 m w.e. a-1. Periods of snout retreat and advance in different glaciers were found but the mean value over the entire study area was a retreat of-231 ± 140 m.No obvious relationship was found between the glacier variation trends and the available gauged climatic data possibly due to the presence of debris cover in ablation zones of all the studied glaciers which provides insulation and reduces the immediate climatic effects.

Controls on geomorphic characteristics of the Xiaohei River basin in the upper Lancang-Mekong, China

Understanding the evolution of the fluvial geomorphology in an orogenic belt provides valuable insight into the relationship between upper crustal deformation and surface processes.The upper Lancang-Mekong River is in an area experiencing both uplift and erosion.The related processes provide a steady sediment supply to the lower reaches of the river and play an important role in the regional environmental changes.The Xiaohei(Weiyuan)River Basin is an important sub-basin in this area,which is characterized by large-scale topographic fluctuations,active tectonics and erosion,and anthropogenic activities.These different factors introduce numerous complexities to the local surface processes.In this study,we investigate and quantify the controls of geomorphic evolution of the Xiaohei River Basin.We located and mapped the main knick-zones within the channels and examined the main genetic factors,such as faults and stratigraphic differences.The results show that the areas with the lowest uplift rates are characterized by a low steepness index and are located in the southeastern part of the basin.The stream power of the mainstream increases downstream,with an average value of^122 W/m.The erosional activity of the various stream channels is intense.Overall,the basin tends to expansion,with only local instances of inward contraction.Our analysis confirms that a number of the geomorphic evolutionary characteristics of the Xiaohei River Basin are transient.In addition,the future potential for the increasing the number of dams and the hydropower development in the basin may weaken the expansion trend of the basin over a long period of time.

Spatiotemporal variation of snow cover and its relationship with temperature and precipitation in the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River Basin

The snow cover over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)and its surrounding areas is very sensitive to climate changes.Due to the complexity of geographical environment in this large region,the response of snow cover to climate change should exhibit spatiotemporal differences.In this study,the spatiotemporal variations of snow cover from 2002-2015 in the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River Basin(YBRB)were analyzed using an optimized fractional snow cover(FSC)product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS).Additionally,the effects of temperature and precipitation on the variability of snow cover were also investigated.The results showed that:(1)The snow cover exhibited large spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the YBRB.High FSC was observed in the northeast of the basin and the south slope of Himalaya,while the lowest was concentrated in the broad valley of the upstream of YBRB.The FSC value reached its highest in winter and dropped to its lowest in summer,but the monthly change processes were different between upstream and downstream regions.(2)A slightly increasing tendency(3.76%/10 a)of snow cover was observed on basin-wide,but the changes varied through time and space.The FSC increased significantly in the source and midstream regions during winter to spring(10.5%-18.0%/10 a),while it changed slightly in summer over all parts of the basin(-0.4%-4.3%/10 a).(3)The study area generally became warm and wet,and the change trend of temperature was more significant than that of precipitation.Snow cover changes were weakly correlated with temperature in winter and precipitation in summer.But in spring and autumn,both precipitation and temperature were significantly related to snow cover change in most regions of the basin.(4)The dominant factor driving the changes of snow cover varied in seasons.The area dominated by temperature was slightly larger than that dominated by precipitation in spring,except that precipitation significantly dominated the snow cover changes in the source region;In summer and autumn,temperature contributed more to the snow cover change in most areas of the basin;However,in winter,precipitation played a leading role in the variations of snow cover.These findings help to understand the different performance of the snow cover in the QTP and its surrounding areas under future climate change.

Heterogeneity-diversity Relationships in Natural Areas of Yunnan,China

Understanding regional environmental heterogeneity(EH)and biodiversity relationships(heterogeneity-diversity relationships:HDRs)is the first step toward coupling environmental variables with biodiversity surrogates into regional systematic conservation planning.However,there is no universal method for determining regional HDRs that considers various environmental variables and biodiversity in different regions.This study selected 32 nature reserves as natural areas in Yunnan,China,to examine regional HDRs in Yunnan.We calculated 17 EH parameters(of soil,topography,and climate)and three(ecosystem,plant,and animal)biodiversity indices in the nature reserves.By examining the explanatory power of each EH parameter and area of the nature reserve,we identified the primary parameters and constructed an optimal model for each biodiversity index.The explanatory powers of these parameters varied for each biodiversity index,and those of climatic parameters were generally higher than soil and topographic heterogeneity ones.Heterogeneity of the temperature annual range,followed by area and heterogeneity of soil type,were important parameters for ecosystem diversity of Yunnan and the optimal model explained 56.9%.Plant diversity was explained 54.5%by its optimal model,consisting of heterogeneity of precipitation of the coldest quarter and annual precipitation.Heterogeneity of temperature annual range was important for animal diversity in Yunnan and explained 29.6%of its optimal model.This study suggests that EH parameters can be an effective surrogate for biodiversity,therefore,we suggested that the significance and role of climatically heterogeneous regions for the conservation of biodiversity in Yunnan should be further studied in the future.

Erratum to:Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin(Hindukush Region of Pakistan)between 2001 and 2018

The article Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin(Hindukush Region of Pakistan)between 2001 and 2018,written by Jawaria GUL,Sher MUHAMMAD,LIU Shi-yin,Siddique ULLAH,Shakeel AHMAD,Huma HAYAT and Adnan Ahmad TAHIR,was originally published Online First without Open Access.After publication in volume 17,issue 3,page 572-587,the author decided to opt for Open Choice and to make the article an Open Access publication.Therefore,the copyright of the article has been changed to C The Author(s)2020 and the article is forthwith distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/),which permits use,duplication,adaptation,distribution and reproduction in any medium or format,as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s)and the source,provide a link to the Creative Commons license,and indicate if changes were made.The original version of this article has been revised due to a retrospective Open Access order.

Surrogacy of bird species in systematic conservation planning and conservation assessments in Yunnan Province,China

Bird diversity is often used as surrogates for other species diversity,but there is a limited understanding of the extent of this surrogate in identifying representative priority conservation areas(PCAs).We used Yunnan Province in China as a case to measure the surrogacy of birds in systematic conservation planning.Here,we collected distribution records of mammals,amphibians,reptiles,and birds from public databases and literature,and applied systematic conservation planning methods to identify PCAs.We targeted four taxonomic groups at conservation targets of 17%,31%,and 50%of the total study area,and used the Jaccard similarity index to evaluate the surrogate extent of bird PCAs for the other three groups.Then,we overlapped different portfolios of PCAs with six categories of protected areas(PAs)in Yunnan,calculated the protection rates,and evaluated the effect of sustainable-use PAs on improving the protection rate of strict Nature Reserves.The results showed that bird PCAs generally had the highest surrogacy for representing PCAs of the other three taxa.At the 50%conservation target,the Jaccard indices between birds and the other taxa reached about 0.50.Moreover,amphibian PCAs had a good surrogacy for conserving reptiles,with a Jaccard index of 0.30,0.44 and 0.51 at the 17%,31%and 50%conservation targets,respectively.The existing PA system had quite low coverages for PCAs of these four taxa,and the average protection rates were 22.97%,19.78%and 16.52%at the three levels of conservation targets,respectively.The sustainable-use PAs can greatly complement the strict Nature Reserves by achieving average increased PA coverages of 10.00%,9.20%and 7.90%at the three conservation targets.Our findings provide a basis for surrogate-based conservation planning for areas with insufficient biodiversity information.

A 602-year Reconstruction of July-June Streamflow in the Kuqa River, China, Reveals the Changing Hydrological Signals of the Tarim Basin

A regional tree-ring width chronology of Schrenk spruce(Picea schrenkiana) was used to determine the annual(previous July to current June) streamflow of the Kuqa River in Xinjiang, China, for the period of 1414–2015. A linear transformation of the tree-ring data accounted for 63.9% of the total variance when regressed against instrumental streamflow during 1957–2006. The model was validated by comparing the regression estimates against independent data. High streamflow periods with a streamflow above the 602-year mean occurred from 1430–1442, 1466–1492, 1557–1586, 1603–1615, 1687–1717, 1748–1767, 1795–1819, 1834–1856, 1888–1910 and 1989–2015. Low streamflow periods(streamflow below the mean) occurred from 1419–1429, 1443–1465, 1493–1556, 1587–1602, 1616–1686, 1720–1747, 1768–1794, 1820–1833, 1857–1887 and 1911–1988. The reconstruction compares well with the tree-ring-based streamflow series of the Tizinafu River from the Kunlun Mountains;both show well-known severe drought events. The streamflow reconstruction also shows highly synchronous upward trends since the 1980 s, suggesting that streamflow is related to Central Asian warming and humidification. Thus, the influences of the extremes and the persistence of low streamflows on local society may be considerable. Climatic changes in the watershed may be responsible for the change in the hydrologic regime of the Tarim Basin observed during the late twentieth century.

MODIS observed snow cover variations in the Aksu River Basin, Northwest China

A major proportion of discharge in the Aksu River is contributed from snow-and glacier-melt water.It is therefore essential to understand the cryospheric dynamics in this area for water resource management.The MODIS MOD10A2 remotesensing database from March 2000 to December 2012 was selected to analyze snow cover changes.Snow cover varied significantly on a temporal and spatial scale for the basin.The difference of the maximum and minimum Snow Cover Fraction(SCF)in winter exceeded 70%.On average for annual cycle,the characteristic of SCF is that it reached the highest value of 53.2%in January and lowest value of 14.7%in July and the distributions of SCF along with elevation is an obvious difference between the range of 3,000 m below and 3,000 m above.The fluctuation of annual average snow cover is strong which shows that the spring snow cover was on the trend of increasing because of decreasing temperatures for the period of 2000-2012.However,temperature in April increased significantly which lead to more snowmelt and a decrease of snow cover.Thus,more attention is needed for flooding in this region due to strong melting of snow.

Impacts of land use/cover change on water balance by using the SWAT model in a typical loess hilly watershed of China

Land use/cover change(LUCC)plays a key role in altering surface hydrology and water balance,finally affect-ing the security and availability of water resources.However,mechanisms underlying LUCC determination of water-balance processes at the basin scale remain unclear.In this study,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model and partial least squares regression were used to detect the effects of LUCC on hydrology and water components in the Zuli River Basin(ZRB),a typical watershed of the Yellow River Basin.In general,three recommended coefficients(R^(2)and E ns greater than 0.5,and P bias less than 20%)indicated that the output results of the SWAT model were reliable and that the model was effective for the ZRB.Then,several key findings were obtained.First,LUCC in the ZRB was characterized by a significant increase in forest(21.61%)and settlement(23.52%)and a slight reduction in cropland(-1.35%),resulting in a 4.93%increase in evapotranspiration and a clear decline in surface runoffand water yield by 15.68%and 2.95%at the whole basin scale,respectively.Second,at the sub-basin scale,surface runoffand water yield increased by 14.26%-36.15%and 5.13%-15.55%,respectively,mainly due to settlement increases.Last,partial least squares regression indicated that urbanization was the most significant contributor to runoffchange,and evapotranspiration change was mainly driven by forest expansion.These conclusions are significant for understanding the relationship between LUCC and water balance,which can provide meaningful information for managing water resources and the long-term sustainability of such watersheds.