Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.

Impact of Urban 3D Morphology on Particulate Matter 2.5(PM2.5) Concentrations:Case Study of Beijing, China

Urban particulate matter 2.5(PM2.5)pollution and public health are closely related,and concerns regarding PM2.5 are widespread.Of the underlying factors,the urban morphology is the most manageable.Therefore,investigations of the impact of urban three-dimensional(3D)morphology on PM2.5 concentration have important scientific significance.In this paper,39 PM2.5 monitoring sites of Beijing in China were selected with PM2.5 automatic monitoring data that were collected in 2013.This data set was used to analyze the impacts of the meteorological condition and public transportation on PM2.5 concentrations.Based on the elimination of the meteorological conditions and public transportation factors,the relationships between urban 3D morphology and PM2.5 concentrations are highlighted.Ten urban 3D morphology indices were established to explore the spatial-temporal correlations between the indices and PM2.5 concentrations and analyze the impact of urban 3D morphology on the PM2.5 concentrations.Results demonstrated that road length density(RLD),road area density(RAD),construction area density(CAD),construction height density(CHD),construction volume density(CVD),construction otherness(CO),and vegetation area density(VAD)have positive impacts on the PM2.5 concentrations,whereas water area density(WAD),water fragmentation(WF),and vegetation fragmentation(VF)(except for the 500 m buffer)have negative impacts on the PM2.5 concentrations.Moreover,the correlations between the morphology indices and PM2.5 concentrations varied with the buffer scale.The findings could lay a foundation for the high-precision spatial-temporal modelling of PM2.5 concentrations and the scientific planning of urban 3D spaces by authorities responsible for controlling PM2.5 concentrations.

Comparison of Adaptive Simulation Observation Experiments of the Heavy Rainfall in South China and Sichuan Basin

This study examines the effectiveness of adaptive observation experiments using the ensemble transformation sensitivity(ETS) method to improve precipitation forecasts during heavy rainfall events in South China and the Sichuan Basin. High-resolution numerical models are employed to simulate adaptive observations. By identifying the sensitive areas of key weather system positions 42 hours before heavy rainfall events, the adaptive observations improve the prediction of jet streams, strong winds, and shear lines, which are essential for accurate heavy rainfall forecasting. This improvement is reflected in both the precipitation structure and location accuracy within the verification region. In South China, targeted observations enhance rainfall predictions by improving water vapor transport. In the Sichuan Basin, adaptive observations refine water vapor transport and adjust vortex dynamics. This research highlights the importance of accurately predicting shear lines and jet streams for forecasting heavy rainfall in these areas. Overall, this study found that adaptive observation enhances the precipitation forecast skills of the structure and location for heavy rainfall in South China and the Sichuan Basin, emphasizing their potential utility in operational numerical weather prediction.

Urban Boundary-Layer Stability and Turbulent Exchange during Consecutive Episodes of Particle Air Pollution in Beijing,China

Based on measurements at the Beijing 325-m Meteorological Tower,this study reports an analysis of atmospheric stability conditions and turbulent exchange during consecutive episodes of particle air pollution in Beijing(China),primarily due to haze and dust events(15–30 April 2012).Of particular interest were relevant vertical variations within the lower urban boundary layer(UBL).First,the haze and dust events were characterized by different atmospheric conditions,as quite low wind speed and high humidity are typically observed during haze events.In addition,for the description of stability conditions,the bulk Richardson number(RiB) was calculated for three different height intervals: 8–47,47–140,and 140–280 m.The values of RiB indicated an apparent increase in the occurrence frequency of stably-stratified air layers in the upper height interval—for the 140–280-m height interval,positive values of RiB occurred for about 85% of the time.The downward turbulent exchange of sensible heat was observed at 280 m for the full diurnal cycle,which,by contrast,was rarely seen at 140 m during daytime.These results reinforce the importance of implementing high-resolution UBL profile observations and addressing issues related to stably-stratified flows.

Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes

Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed as possible causes of these changes. We examine data from urban and rural meteorological stations in eastern China （1955-2011） and compare them with Global Precipitation Climatology Project （GPCP） data （1979-2007） and reanalysis data in various latitude zones to study changes in precipitation extremes. Significant decreases in light precipitation and increases in heavy precipitation are found at both rural and urban stations, as well as low latitudes over the ocean, while total precipitation shows little change. Characteristics of these changes and changes in the equatorial zone and other latitudes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes. In eastern China, increases of annual total dry days （28 days） and ） 10 consecutive dry days （36%） are due to the decrease in light precipitation days, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher meteorological risk of floods and droughts. Further, results derived from the GPCP data and reanalysis data suggest that the causal link exists over widespread regions of the globe.

Seasonal Cumulative Effect of Ural Blocking Episodes on the Frequent Cold events in China during the Early Winter of 2020/21

Starting in mid-November,China was hit by several cold events during the early winter of 2020/21.The lowest temperature observed at Beijing station on 7 January reached−19.6°C.In this paper,we show that the outbreak of the record-breaking extreme cold event can be attributed to a huge merging Ural blocking(UB)ridge over the Eurasian region.The sea-ice cover in the Kara and East Siberia Seas(KESS)in autumn was at its lowest value since 1979,which could have served as a precursor signal.Further analysis shows that several successive UB episodes occurred from 1 September 2020 to 10 January 2021.The persistent UB that occurred in late September/early October 2020 may have made an important contribution to the October historical minimum of sea ice in the KESS region.Our results also show that,after each UB episode in winter,significant upward propagation of wave activity occurred around 60°E,which resulted in weakening the stratospheric vortex.Meanwhile,each UB episode also caused a significant reduction in sea-ice extent in KESS and a significant weakening of the westerly jet in mid-high-latitude Eurasia.Results suggest that the Arctic vortex,which is supposed to enhance seasonally,became weaker and more unstable than the climatic mean under the seasonal cumulative effects of UB episodes,KESS warming,and long-lasting negative-phase North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO-).Those seasonal cumulative effects,combined with the impact of La Niña winter,led to the frequent occurrence of extreme cold events.

Impact of Urbanization on Low-Temperature Precipitation in Beijing during 1960–2008

Daily precipitation and temperature records at 13 stations for the period 1960-2008 were analyzed to identify climatic change and possible effects of urbanization on low-temperature precipitation [LTP, precipitation of ≥ 0.1 mm d^-1 occurring under a daily minimum temperature （Tmin） of ≤ 0℃] in the greater Beijing region （B JR）, where a rapid process of urbaniza tion has taken place over the last few decades. The paper provides a climatological overview of LTP in B JR. LTP contributes 61.7% to the total amount of precipitation in B JR in the cold season （November-March）. There is a slight increasing trend [1.22 mm （10 yr）^-1] in the amount of total precipitation for the cold season during 1960-2008. In contrast, the amount of LTP decreases by 0.6 mm （10 yr）^-1. The warming rate of Train in B JR is 0.66℃ （10 yr）^-1. Correspondingly, the frequency of LTP decreases with increasing Tmin by -0.67 times per ℃. The seasonal frequency and amount of LTP in southeast B JR （mostly urban sites） are 17%-20% less than those in the northwestern （rural and montane sites）. The intensity of LTP for the urban sites and northeastern B JR exhibited significant enhancing trends [0.18 and 0.15 mm d^- 1 （10 yr）^- 1, respectively]. The frequency of slight LTP （〈0.2 mm d^-1） significantly decreased throughout B JR [by about -15.74% （10 yr）^-1 in the urban area and northeast B JR], while the contribution of the two heaviest LTP events to total LTP amount significantly increased by 3.2% （10 yr） ^-1.

Contrasting Characteristics of the Surface Energy Balance between the Urban and Rural Areas of Beijing

A direct comparison of urban and rural surface energy balances, as well as a variety of other variables including incoming shortwave/longwave radiation and aerosol optical depth, is conducted for the Beijing metropolitan area. The results indicate that, overall, the urban area receives a smaller amount of incoming shortwave radiation but a larger amount of incoming longwave radiation. However, comparisons in the aerosol optical depth and cloud fraction at the two locations suggest that neither aerosol optical depth nor cloud fraction alone can explain the difference in the incoming shortwave radiation. The urban–rural differences in the incoming longwave radiation are unlikely to be caused by the presence of more abundant greenhouse gases over the urban area, as suggested by some previous studies, given that water vapor is the most dominant greenhouse gas and precipitable water is found to be less in urban areas. The higher incoming longwave radiation observed over the urban area is mostly likely due to the higher temperatures of the ambient air. The urban area is also found to always produce higher sensible heat fluxes and lower latent heat fluxes in the growing season. Furthermore, the urban area is associated with a larger amount of available energy（the sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes） than the rural area, except in May and October when evapotranspiration in the rural area significantly exceeds that in the urban area. This study provides observational evidence of urban–rural contrasts in relevant energy-balance components that plausibly arise from urban–rural differences in atmospheric and land-surface conditions.

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal precipitation in Ningxia,China

Based on daily rainfall data from 26 station records,spatial and temporal variations in annual and seasonal precipitation of different rainfall intensities from 1961 to 2018 in Ningxia,China are investigated using the innovative trend analysis(ITA)method.The results show that annual precipitation increases on the northern plain but decreases in the southern mountainous area.The increase in regional annual precipitation is mainly due to an increase in weak precipitation,while the decrease in regional annual rainfall is a result of a reduction in heavy precipitation.Lowintensity precipitation shows an upward trend,while high-intensity precipitation shows a downward trend.The variation trend of extreme precipitation is more obvious.The contributions of different types of extreme precipitation vary by season.During spring,the increase in regional rainfall is mainly caused by the increase in heavy precipitation,while the decrease in regional precipitation is mainly caused by the decrease in weak precipitation.During summer and autumn,the increase in regional precipitation is caused by the increase in light precipitation,while the reduction in regional rainfall is caused by the decrease in heavy precipitation.This study provides support for water resources planning and addressing droughts and floods.

A Microscale Model for Air Pollutant Dispersion Simulation in Urban Areas： Presentation of the Model and Performance over a Single Building

A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion model to simulate the pollutant concentration through consideration of the influence of urban buildings. Numerical experiments are designed to evaluate the model＇s performance, using CEDVAL （Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Microscale Disper- sion Models） wind tunnel experiment data, including wind fields and air pollutant dispersion around a single building. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings and the dispersion model simulates the pollutant concentration around buildings well. Typically, the simulation errors come from the determination of the key zones around a building or building cluster. This model has the potential for multiple applications; for example, the prediction of air pollutant dispersion and the evaluation of environmental impacts in emergency situations; urban planning scenarios; and the assessment of microscale air quality in urban areas.

Assimilating All-sky Infrared Radiances from Himawari-8 Using the 3DVar Method for the Prediction of a Severe Storm over North China

Although radar observations capture storm structures with high spatiotemporal resolutions, they are limited within the storm region after the precipitation formed. Geostationary satellites data cover the gaps in the radar network prior to the formation of the precipitation for the storms and their environment. The study explores the effects of assimilating the water vapor channel radiances from Himawari-8 data with Weather Research and Forecasting model data assimilation system(WRFDA) for a severe storm case over north China. A fast cloud detection scheme for Advanced Himawari imager(AHI)radiance is enhanced in the framework of the WRFDA system initially in this study. The bias corrections, the cloud detection for the clear-sky AHI radiance, and the observation error modeling for cloudy radiance are conducted before the data assimilation. All AHI radiance observations are fully applied without any quality control for all-sky AHI radiance data assimilation. Results show that the simulated all-sky AHI radiance fits the observations better by using the cloud dependent observation error model, further improving the cloud heights. The all-sky AHI radiance assimilation adjusts all types of hydrometeor variables, especially cloud water and precipitation snow. It is proven that assimilating all-sky AHI data improves hydrometeor specifications when verified against the radar reflectivity. Consequently, the assimilation of AHI observations under the all-sky condition has an overall improved impact on both the precipitation locations and intensity compared to the experiment with only conventional and AHI clear-sky radiance data.

Quality Assessment of FY-4A Lightning Data in Inland China

The Lightning Mapping Imager(LMI)equipped on the FY-4 A(Feng Yun-4 A)geostationary satellite achieves lightning positioning through optical imaging and has the advantages of high temporal resolution,high stability,and continuous observation.In this study,FY-4 A LMI lightning event,group and flash data from April to August 2018 are selected,and their quality are assessed through qualitative and quantitative comparison with the ground-based Advanced Time of Arrival and Direction system(ADTD)lightning observation network data and the American International Space Station(ISS)lightning imaging sensor(LIS)data.The results show that the spatial distributions of FY-4 A lightning are consistent with those of the ground-based ADTD and ISS LIS.The temporal variation in FY-4 A lightning group frequency is consistent with that of ADTD stroke,which reflects that FY-4 A LMI can capture the lightning occurrence in inland China.Quantitative statistics show that the consistency rate of FY-4 A LMI and ISS LIS events is relatively high but their consistency rate is lower in terms of lightning group and flash data.Compared with the lightning observations by the ISS LIS and the ground-based ADTD,FY-4 A LMI reports fewer lightning events in the Tibetan Plateau.The application of Tibetan Plateau lightning data requires further processing and consideration.

Numerical simulation of an extreme haze pollution event over the North China Plain based on initial and boundary condition ensembles

The North China Plain often su ers heavy haze pollution events in the cold season due to the rapid industrial development and urbanization in recent decades.In the winter of 2015,the megacity cluster of Beijing Tianjin Hebei experienced a seven-day extreme haze pollution episode with peak PM2.5(particulate matter(PM)with an aerodynamic diameter≤2.5μm)concentration of 727μg m 3.Considering the in uence of meteorological conditions on pollu-tant evolution,the e ects of varying initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions(LBCs)of the WRF-Chem model on PM2.5 concentration variation were investigated through ensemble methods.A control run(CTRL)and three groups of ensemble experiments(INDE,BDDE,INBDDE)were carried out based on difierent initial conditions and LBCs derived from ERA5 reanalysis data and its 10 ensemble members.The CTRL run reproduced the meteorological conditions and the overall life cycle of the haze event reasonably well,but failed to capture the intense oscillation of the instantaneous PM2.5 concentration.However,the ensemble forecasting showed a considerable advantage to some extent.Compared with the CTRL run,the root-mean-square error(RMSE)of PM2.5 concentration decreased by 4.33%,6.91%,and 8.44%in INDE,BDDE and INBDDE,respectively,and the RMSE decreases of wind direction(5.19%,8.89%and 9.61%)were the dominant reason for the improvement of PM2.5 concentration in the three ensemble experiments.Based on this case,the ensemble scheme seems an e ective method to improve the prediction skill of wind direction and PM2.5 concentration by using the WRF-Chem model.

Response to Comments by Yuan WANG on “Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes”

In his comments, Wang cites a number of works to dispute the conclusion in our previous work, which attributes the observed decreases/increases in light/heavy precipitation in eastern China primarily to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effect. However, most of the cited works （admittedly, including our previous work）, employ correlation analysis, which has little bearing on the cause--effect relationship. Theoretical analyses and/or modeling studies are needed to ascertain the cause-effect relationship. We argue that theoretical analyses and modeling results show that global warming is the primary cause of the widely observed phenomena of suppression of light precipitation and enhancement of heavy precipitation across the globe, including in eastern China.

Large Eddy Simulation and Study of the Urban Boundary Layer

Based on a pseudo-spectral large eddy simulation (LES) model, an LES model with an anisotropy turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure model and an explicit multi-stage third-order Runge-Kutta scheme is established. The modeling and analysis show that the LES model can simulate the planetary boundary layer (PBL) with a uniform underlying surface under various stratifications very well. Then, similar to the description of a forest canopy, the drag term on momentum and the production term of TKE by subgrid city buildings are introduced into the LES equations to account for the area-averaged effect of the subgrid urban canopy elements and to simulate the meteorological fields of the urban boundary layer (UBL). Numerical experiments and comparison analysis show that: (1) the result from the LES of the UBL with a proposed formula for the drag coefficient is consistent and comparable with that from wind tunnel experiments and an urban subdomain scale model; (2) due to the effect of urban buildings, the wind velocity near the canopy is decreased, turbulence is intensified, TKE, variance, and momentum flux are increased, the momentum and heat flux at the top of the PBL are increased, and the development of the PBL is quickened; (3) the height of the roughness sublayer (RS) of the actual city buildings is the maximum building height (1.5-3 times the mean building height), and a constant flux layer (CFL) exists in the lower part of the UBL.

Impact of the Horizontal Heat Flux in the Mixed Layer on an Extreme Heat Event in North China:A Case Study

Extreme heat over the North China Plain is typically induced by anomalous descending flows associated with anticyclonic circulation anomalies. However, an extreme heat event that happened in the North China Plain region on 12–13 July 2015,with maximum temperature higher than 40℃ at some stations, was characterized by only a weak simultaneous appearance of an anomalous anticyclone and descending flow, suggesting that some other factor(s) may have induced this heat event. In this study, we used the forecast data produced by the Beijing Rapid Updated Cycling operational forecast system, which predicted the heat event well, to investigate the formation mechanism of this extreme heat event. We calculated the cumulative heat in the mixed-layer air column of North China to represent the change in surface air temperature. The cumulative heat was composed of sensible heat flux from the ground surface and the horizontal heat flux convergence. The results indicated that the horizontal heat flux in the mixed layer played a crucial role in the temporal and spatial distribution of high temperatures.The horizontal heat flux was found to be induced by distinct distributions of air temperatures and horizontal winds at low levels during the two days, implying a complexity of the low-level atmosphere in causing the extreme heat.

Analysis on Discipline Construction and Development Strategy of National-level Professional Research Institutes

Discipline construction is development core of a professional research institute. The paper describes function,guiding ideology,and construction of discipline construction,based on giving a national-level professional research institute directly under the Ministry of Science and Technology,as an example. Furthermore,according to current situation of discipline construction in a professional research institute,the paper discusses development ideas of discipline construction. The final goal of the paper is to provide basis and reference for reinforcing discipline construction of professional research institutes.

Cooling effect of urban parks and their relationship with urban heat islands

It is claimed that open spaces in cities, such as parks, have an urban cooling effect. However, the relationship between urban parks and adjacent districts is still not explicit. In order to clarify the interaction between urban parks and their urban surroundings, this paper takes the Temple of Heaven Park （THP） as an example of a park station and focuses on analyzing the differences with a nearby urban station.THP is located in the center of Beijing, and the nearest urban station is Tian An Men. It is interesting that the cooling effect of THP reaches a peak and remains stable when its city background urban heat island （UHI） varies within a given range, but becomes unstable when the UHI goes beyond the range. This is called an enhanced cooling effect in this paper. As a result, the UHi intensities （UHIIs） are calculated in order to comprehend the role of the park cooling effect in the urban heating characteristics of Beijing. By comparison with five other park-district pairs, this paper attempts to identify the causes of the enhanced cooling effect. It is found that six park-district pairs consistently demonstrate a persistently stronger cooling rate during the night, and that the water coverage might be a key factor in enhancing the park cooling effect. Based on further investigation of the influence of surrounding UHIs on the park cooling effect, it is found that the UHII differences in park-district pairs show quasi-linear changes within a given range as the UHli of the surrounding district increases.

Estimating emissions and concentrations of road dust aerosol over China using the GEOS-Chem model

Paved road dust is one of the most important aerosols in China. The authors estimated road dust emissions using an empirical model （AP-42 model） developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and simulated road dust concentrations over China for the years 2006-2011 using the GEOS-Chem model.The annual road dust emissions amount averaged over 2006-2011 is estimated to be 2331.4 kt, with much higher emissions in eastern China than in western China. Because of heavy traffic and a dense road network, emissions are high over Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu （BTT）, Henan Province, and Shandong Province. Meanwhile, emissions are calculated to be 459.1, 112.0, and 102.7 kt, respectively, over BTT, the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region, and the Yangtze River Delta （YRD）. Due to the monthly variation of precipitation, road dust emissions over China are simulated to be highest in December and lowest in June. The highest annual mean road dust concentration is simulated to be 14.5 tJg m-3 in Beijing. Over 2006-2011, because of the increases in road length and number of vehicles, annual road dust emissions for China as a whole, Bl-r, the PRD, and the YRD, are simulated to increase by 260%, 239%, 266%, and 59%, respectively, leading to 233%, 243%, 273%, and 100% increases in road dust concentrations in these regions, respectively. Our results have important implications for air pollution control in China.

Sensitivity Assessment and Optimization Strategy of Climatic Environment in Central Urban Area of Beijing

As one of the methods of urban environmental assessment,sensitivity assessment of urban climatic environment can accurately reflect the problem areas of current urban climate and built environment through visual means,and help cities to carry out sustainable transformation and renewal in the stock era to optimize the living environment.Taking the central urban area of Beijing as the research object,the sensitivity of climatic environment was evaluated by meteorological data and built environment element data.The results showed that the distribution of sensitive units showed a centrifugal radiation pattern of"high in the center and low in the periphery".Block units with high climate sensitivity were mostly concentrated in Xicheng District and Dongcheng District,accounting for 93%of the total number of units.Further research showed that complex built environment and lack of elements to regulate climatic environment were the main reasons for the poor local climatic environment in the region with high climate sensitivity.Finally,a comprehensive evaluation of the remolding capacity,renewal potential and future development intensity of different grades of climate sensitive units was given.The results will provide scientific reference for urban renewal and reconstruction under climatic and environmental changes,so as to promote urban sustainable development and improvement of living environment.