Analysis and Prospects of the World Economic Situation 2023-2024

At present,the growth momentum of the world economy is clearly insufficient,and faced with many unstable,uncertain and unpredictable factors,the world economy is generally on a downward path.From the perspective of trend changes,the world economy will still be in the process of reshaping its growth momentum in 2024,with positive factors accumulating but downward pressure remaining.

VISIBLE REBOUND OF WORLD ECONOMY, LINGERING DIFFICULTY IN KEEPING THE GROWING MOMENTUM

The world economic growth rate reaches around 3.6% in 2017 cal- culated in PPP terms, and 3.0% in market exchange rates terms, which has clearly picked up with continuous im- provement in labor market, moderate rise in global price level and increase in international trade gro^dh rate. Howev- er, at the same time, the foundation for world economic recovery is still not sol- id, while long-term international trade factors supporting rapid growth have yet to take shape. American fiscal and monetary policies are to generate large negative spillover effects upon world economy; the trend of de-globalization and trade and investment protectionism are on the rise; debt overhang problem are becoming more and more severe; asset bubble may burst anytime. Other problems like geopolitical risks and terrorism are exerting influences on the stability and development of world economy as well.

WORLD ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN 2019: DOWN A TRACK OF MEDIUM AND LOW SPEED GROWTH

The year 2019 has witnessed the drastic slowdown of global economic and trade growth,steep decline of foreign direct investment,continuing slowdown of growth rate of major developed economies and increasing downward pressure on emerging economies.The unilateral and protectionist policies adopted by the Trump administration of the United States have led the world on a track of slower growth;in the meantime,monetary and fiscal policies designed by various countries,especially developed economies,have become less effective;and insufficient global aggregate demand has also severely jeopardized world economic growth.

Review and Outlook of World Economy in 2021

The year 2021 witnessed a rapid recovery of the global economy following its largest recession since World War II.The development of vaccines,the increased vaccinated population and the strengthened prevention and control at all levels have worked together to weaken the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy.Meanwhile,the fiscal and monetary policies launched by various countries,especially the major economies,in response to the pandemic have also boosted the economic recovery to varying degrees.The instability of the COVID-19 situation and side effects of response policies together with various problems existing before the pandemic and the direction and intensity of future policy adjustment of major economies have constituted the basic factors affecting the trend of the world economy in 2022.

Global climate governance in the new era:Potential of business actors and technological innovation

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)has established a climate governance mechanism with intergovernmental negotiations among sovereign states as the core.After nearly 30 years,progress in combating climate change has remained very modest compared with the numerous challenges raised.The global climate governance has entered a new era,such that incorporating other factors into the governance process is timely.Therefore,the study emphasizes technological innovation and business actors in climate governance after the Paris Agreement.Technological innovation can provide effective solutions for combating climate change and has been a crucial driving force in climate governance's evolution.Business actors are significant because they are actual implementers of technological innovation and can apply different types of power and influence on climate governance processes at various levels.In summary,business actors,as well as technological innovation in line with governments and the UNFCCC governance frameworks,create a new potential for climate governance in the new era.

A Comparative Study of China's Foreign Aid

： Chinese development assistance is totally different in nature in comparison with the aid offered by the United States and Japan. The U.S. sees its aid as a form of ＂mercy＂ to less-developed countries and gives it with numerous conditions attached. Japan seems to mainly use it to pursue commercial interests. By contrast, Chinese aid is, in essence, cooperation and mutual support between developing countries. This fundamental difference helps to explain why Beiiin＇s aid is so different from that of the Western donors.

The Key Driver of China’s New Economic Development Pattern:A Major Power’s Flying Geese Paradigm

This paper examines China’s flying geese paradigm that serves as a key driver of a new pattern of the country’s economic development.Our results suggest that such a major power’s flying geese paradigm has taken shape in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008.However,this paradigm has provincial heterogeneity in that industrial relocation varies across provinces.For instance,China’s central and western regions have shown differences while serving as destinations for labor-intensive industries and processing trade.This flying geese paradigm evolves in a slow and nonlinear manner,and may be subject to stagnation and even reversal.

Formation of China's External Economic Strategy Since the 18th CPC National Congress

Recognition of the international economic situation,governance mechanisms,and the rise of emerging and developing countries is the basis for China’s new diplomatic concept and external strategic pattern.Since the 18th CPC National Congress,the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has recognized the changes wrought through changed economic leverage,globalization,and other circumstances.

An Analysis of U.S."Energy Independence"

"Energy independence" has been an age-old dream of the U.S.administration,and recently reemerged as a hot topic in the United States.The current decline of U.S. dependence on foreign energy is mainly caused by its economic downturn rather than genuine energy independence.Actually the U.S.still needs to import large quantities of crude oil in a rather long time.

World Economic Prospects in the Next Ten Years

The world economy,which has displayed unprecedented changes in the 21st century,has three characteristics: the collective rise of emerging powers,the escalating development of globalization,and the further deterioration of global imbalances. International economic development,the relationship between market demand and supply,the balance of power between South and North,and world economic relations and world order are in a state of constant flux. In the next ten years,the world economy will follow a trend that may be defined as "chaotic","changing" and "new". It is "chaotic" because the West will continue to wrestle with the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis,"changing" because the international financial and economic system will be transformed,and "new" because patterns in world power will undergo great changes. The mega-crisis embodies big risks,fundamental reforms,and great opportunities.

World Economy:Trapped in a Vicious Cycle

The US sub-prime mortgage crisis has put a sharp brake on the robust growth of the world economy.As the Wall Street financial storm has quickly escalated into a global financial crisis,the whole world has sunk into panic.The full-scale recession in the developed world has dragged the emerging markets into economic downturn as well.Governments have been caught off guard by the sudden slump in both international trade and investment,and the rapid deterioration of the global development environment.The pernicious feedback loop between the financial sector and the real economy has propelled the financial crisis into an unfathomable abyss,and plunged the world into the worst recession since World WarⅡ.The world economy is expected to start recovering only in 2010.

China and the World: Harmony in Economic Growth

China's rise has focused international attention in recent years and China Studies now tops the agenda of academia and decision-making circles around the world.The reasons can be traced to tremendous transformations that have occurred in China since it launched reforms and opening-up policies.These changes have given rise to adjustments in the global economy and ensuing shifts in the North-South power balance.In fact,China has increasingly evolved into a driving force for the global economy,providing it with opportunities for expansion and providing it with a more spacious,relaxed environment.Such a win-win situation benefits sustainable global growth.Therefore,a correct grasp of the channels for this interaction and recognition of the harmony in growth between China and the world is crucial,both for China's further integration into the world,and the world's better understanding of this rising Asian power.

Case Study of the Ways Private Equity Funds Apply to Dodge Capital-flow Control

In this article,several cases are cited to demonstrate how foreign private equity firms circumvent Chinese government restrictions on capital flows and investing in strategic and sensitive sectors. Speci cally,private equities investing in Chinese companies to be listed abroad can use the Red-chip,Sheng Da or overseas option models. Private equities investing in domestically-listed Chinese companies can resort to foreign-funded banks,underground banking,stock-holder borrowing,stocks held by the third party,equity bonds or local investment company purchases.

Carbon Neutrality and the Changing Landscape of Global Energy Politics

The international low-carbon energy transition has been accelerated by national carbon neutral targets.Global consumption of traditional energy sources is entering a bottleneck,the development of new and renewable energy is accelerating,and trends of energy electrification,networking,and digitalization are rising.At the same time,amid the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,some radical and political emissions reduction measures in the low-carbon transition process have exacerbated a short-term international energy supply–demand imbalance,resulting in soaring energy prices and electricity shortages in many countries.The ongoing global energy shortage underscores the complexity and long-term character of the international energy transition,suggesting that the lowcarbon transition process will face numerous new energy security issues.The energy structure shift to low carbon is driving the adjustment of both the connotations and structures of world energy politics,accelerating the evolution of the concept of energy security,strategy,and international energy security frameworks.Traditional and new energy geopolitical games are being played simultaneously,and the global energy geopolitical landscape is brewing multiple new changes.

Ghina-U.S.Trade --the Path of Development

The United States is the world's largest economy and China is ranked number four; together the two countries comprise one third of the global economy. 40% of the international economic growth is sustained by the two countries. In terms of international trade, the United States and China are the first and the third largest trading nations respectively. Trade developments of these two countries have a huge impact on international imports and exports.

Ecological Footprint Tax for the Development of Local Agribusiness

The concept of ecological footprint tax(EFT)can be developed to cover the whole economy,but as a first experimental step,this paper suggests to introduce it in agriculture and food industry.The EFT is expected to mitigate two of the greatest anxieties of people in developed and semi-developed world:(rural)unemployment and climate change.The proposed arctan relation between the ecological footprint of products and the tax to be paid would result in a fairer allocation of tax charges(rich big-consumers having to pay much higher tax than low-polluter average people),assure sustainability for both the ecosystem and local economy(the tax charge itself depending first of all on the distance a product is to be shipped to the customer),and allow a healthier diet(local production,reaching the customers within much shorter time period than imports,not having to be stuffed with preservatives).

An Examination of the Concepts and Principles of China's Major-Country Diplomacy with Its Own Characteristics for a New Era

The victorious convening of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)has indicated China’s major-country diplomacy with its own characteristics has entered a new era.Rooted in China’s diplomatic practices since the 18th National Congress of the CPC and the report to the 19th National Congress of the CPC,this paper is intended to elaborate on the issues relating to the concepts and principles of China’s major-country diplomacy with its own characteristics for a new era,in a bid to establish a basic framework for their studies.The core concepts of China’s major-country diplomacy with its own characteristics for a new era include a community with a shared future for humanity;inclusive development;amity,sincerity,mutual benefit,and inclusiveness;and the correct view on righteousness and interests.And the basic principles of China’s major-country diplomacy with its own characteristics for a new era include being enthusiastic and pressing on;bottom-line thinking;win-win cooperation;and mutual consultation,joint construction and co-sharing.These concepts and principles should be applied in China’s concrete diplomatic practices.

China＇s Role in Peace and Security Cooperation in the Gulf of Guinea Region

Africa＇s largest bay and an the Gulf of Guinea has d＇Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, important international shipping channel, coastal countries including Liberia, Cote Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, EquatorialGuinea, Gabon, and Sao Tome and Principe. In a broader sense, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone and Mall can also be considered as coastal states of the Guinea Gulf. In the 21st century, the security situation in the region has been intricate, with intertwined traditional and non-traditional security issues and the involvement of multiple external forces.

To Accomplish the Unaccomplished Reform： Lessons and Options of RMB Exchange Rate Reform

The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.

National Security Dilemma in the Digital Era and the Building of a Community with a Shared Future in Cyberspace

A review of the history of human development shows that every major technological revolution brings new challenges to national security.With the advent of the information technology revolution represented by the Internet,cybersecurity has become an issue of paramount importance,and the digital intelligence revolution with digital technology innovations such as big data and cloud computing has further expanded the connotation and extension of cybersecurity.