A rather simple straightforward procedure of estimating maximum values of the considered parameter (earthquake magnitude in a given region or seismic peak ground acceleration at the considered site) and quantiles of i...A rather simple straightforward procedure of estimating maximum values of the considered parameter (earthquake magnitude in a given region or seismic peak ground acceleration at the considered site) and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future time interval of a given length is presented. To assess the peak ground acceleration using this method, the input information is the earthquake catalog and the regressive relation where the peak seismic acceleration at a given point bears the magnitude and epicentral distance of the site considered (seismic attenuation law). The method is based on the Bayesian approach, in which the influence of uncertainties of magnitudes and seismic acceleration values can be taken into account. The main assumptions for the method are the Poissonian character of the seismic event flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg-Richter’s type with a cutoff maximum value for the estimated parameter, and an earthquake catalog that has a rather large number of events. The method has been applied to seismic hazard estimation in California, the Balkans, and Japan.展开更多
The concept of aggregated signal is introduced. Quantitatively, an aggregated signal can be defined as the scalar signal: it accumulates in its own variations only those spectral components that are presented simultan...The concept of aggregated signal is introduced. Quantitatively, an aggregated signal can be defined as the scalar signal: it accumulates in its own variations only those spectral components that are presented simultaneously in each scalar time series of the multidimensional signal to be analyzed. Moreover, an algorithm of aggregation is proposed to suppress the spectral components that are present in any of the scalar components but absent in others (these components can be called local disturbance signals, for instance of technogenic nature). The main purpose of constructing the aggregated signal is to make clearer the common tendency of low-frequency data-flow in geophysical networks, which indicates an increase in collective behavior.It is known that almost all models of the process of earthquake preparation have pointed out an increase in collective behavior of components of geophysical fields in the region of preparation when the coming geocatastrophe has entered its long- and mid-term stages.展开更多
Using the domino dynamo model, we show how specific axisymmetric and equatorial symmetric forms of the heat flux variations at the core-mantle boundary change the frequency of the geomagnetic field reversals. In fact,...Using the domino dynamo model, we show how specific axisymmetric and equatorial symmetric forms of the heat flux variations at the core-mantle boundary change the frequency of the geomagnetic field reversals. In fact, we are able to demonstrate the effect known from the modern 3D planetary dynamo models using an ensemble of interacting spins, which obey equations of the Langevin type with a random force. We also consider applications to the giant planets and offer explanations of some specific episodes of the geomagnetic field in the past.展开更多
文摘A rather simple straightforward procedure of estimating maximum values of the considered parameter (earthquake magnitude in a given region or seismic peak ground acceleration at the considered site) and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future time interval of a given length is presented. To assess the peak ground acceleration using this method, the input information is the earthquake catalog and the regressive relation where the peak seismic acceleration at a given point bears the magnitude and epicentral distance of the site considered (seismic attenuation law). The method is based on the Bayesian approach, in which the influence of uncertainties of magnitudes and seismic acceleration values can be taken into account. The main assumptions for the method are the Poissonian character of the seismic event flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg-Richter’s type with a cutoff maximum value for the estimated parameter, and an earthquake catalog that has a rather large number of events. The method has been applied to seismic hazard estimation in California, the Balkans, and Japan.
文摘The concept of aggregated signal is introduced. Quantitatively, an aggregated signal can be defined as the scalar signal: it accumulates in its own variations only those spectral components that are presented simultaneously in each scalar time series of the multidimensional signal to be analyzed. Moreover, an algorithm of aggregation is proposed to suppress the spectral components that are present in any of the scalar components but absent in others (these components can be called local disturbance signals, for instance of technogenic nature). The main purpose of constructing the aggregated signal is to make clearer the common tendency of low-frequency data-flow in geophysical networks, which indicates an increase in collective behavior.It is known that almost all models of the process of earthquake preparation have pointed out an increase in collective behavior of components of geophysical fields in the region of preparation when the coming geocatastrophe has entered its long- and mid-term stages.
文摘Using the domino dynamo model, we show how specific axisymmetric and equatorial symmetric forms of the heat flux variations at the core-mantle boundary change the frequency of the geomagnetic field reversals. In fact, we are able to demonstrate the effect known from the modern 3D planetary dynamo models using an ensemble of interacting spins, which obey equations of the Langevin type with a random force. We also consider applications to the giant planets and offer explanations of some specific episodes of the geomagnetic field in the past.
