The Interdecadal Changes of South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature in the Mid-1990s and Their Connections with ENSO

The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability （PDV） interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods： January 1979 to December 1994 （P 1） and January 1996 to December 2011 （P2）. Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P 1 （EOF-P 1） to a dipole-like pattern for P2 （EOF-P2）. Besides, EOF-P 1 （EOF-P2） had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr （2.7 yr）. EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both PI and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.

Seasonal Evolution of Dominant Modes in South Pacific SST and Relationship with ENSO

A season-reliant empirical orthogonal function （S-EOF） analysis was applied to the seasonal mean SST anomalies （SSTAs） based on the HadISST1 dataset with linear trend removed at every grid point in the South Pacific （60.5°-19.5°S, 139.5°E-60.5°W） during the period 1979-2009. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the dominant modes and their relationships with ENSO were analyzed. The results show that there are two seasonally evolving dominant modes of SSTAs in the South Pacific with interannual and interdeeadal variations; they account for nearly 40% of the total variance. Although the seasonal evolution of spatial patterns of the first S-EOF mode （S-EOF1） did not show remarkable propagation, it decays with season remarkably. The second S-EOF mode （S-EOF2） showed significant seasonal evolution and intensified with season, with distinct characteristics of eastward propagation of the negative SSTAs in southern New Zealand and positive SSTAs southeast of Australia. Both of these two modes have significant relationships with ENSO. These two modes correspond to the post-ENSO and ENSO turnabout years, respectively. The S- EOF1 mode associated with the decay of the eastern Pacific （EP） and the central Pacific （CP） types of ENSO exhibited a more significant relationship with the EP/CP type of E1 Nifio than that with the EP/CP type of La Nifia. The S-EOF2 mode contacted with the EP type of E1 Nifio changing into the EP/CP type of La Nifia showed a more significant connection with the EP/CP type of La Nifia.

An analysis on the error structure and mechanism of soil moisture and ocean salinity remotely sensed sea surface salinity products

For the application of soil moisture and ocean salinity（SMOS） remotely sensed sea surface salinity（SSS） products,SMOS SSS global maps and error characteristics have been investigated based on quality control information.The results show that the errors of SMOS SSS products are distributed zonally,i.e.,relatively small in the tropical oceans,but much greater in the southern oceans in the Southern Hemisphere（negative bias） and along the southern,northern and some other oceanic margins（positive or negative bias）.The physical elements responsible for these errors include wind,temperature,and coastal terrain and so on.Errors in the southern oceans are due to the bias in an SSS retrieval algorithm caused by the coexisting high wind speed and low temperature; errors along the oceanic margins are due to the bias in a brightness temperature（TB） reconstruction caused by the high contrast between L-band emissivities from ice or land and from ocean; in addition,some other systematic errors are due to the bias in TB observation caused by a radio frequency interference and a radiometer receivers drift,etc.The findings will contribute to the scientific correction and appropriate application of the SMOS SSS products.

Relationships between intensity of the Kuroshio current in the East China Sea and the East Asian winter monsoon

Based on satellite altimeter and reanalysis data,this paper studies the relationships between the intensity of the Kuroshio current in the East China Sea（ECS） and the East Asian winter monsoon（EAWM）.The mechanisms of their possible interaction are also discussed.Results indicate that adjacent transects show consistent variations,and on an interannual timescale,when the EAWM is anomalously strong（weak）,the downstream Kuroshio in the ECS is suppressed（enhanced） in the following year from February to April.This phenomenon can be attributed to both the dynamic effect（i.e.,Ekman transport） and the thermal effect of the EAWM.When the EAWM strengthens（weakens）,the midstream and downstream Kuroshio in the ECS are also suppressed（intensified） during the following year from October to December.The mechanisms vary for these effects.The EAWM exerts its influence on the Kuroshio＇s intensity in the following year through the tropospheric biennial oscillation（TBO）,and oceanic forcing is dominant during this time.The air-sea interaction is modulated by the relative strength of the EAWM and the Kuroshio in the ECS.The non-equivalence of spatial scales between the monsoon and the Kuroshio determines that their interactions are aided by processes with a smaller spatial scale,i.e.,local wind stress and heating at the sea surface.

Sufficient conditions of Rayleigh-Taylor stability and instability in equatorial ionosphere

Rayleigh-Taylor （R-T） instability is known as the fundamental mechanism of equatorial plasma bubbles （EPBs）. However, the sufficient conditions of R-T instability and stability have not yet been derived. In the present paper, the sufficient conditions of R-T stability and instability are preliminarily^derived. Linear equations for small perturbation are first obtained from the electron/ion continuity equations, momentum equations, and the current continuity equation in the equatorial ionosphere. The linear equations can be casted as an eigenvalue equation using a normal mode method. The eigenvalue equation is a variable coefficient linear equation that can be solved using a variational approach. With this approach, the sufficient conditions can be obtained as follows： if the minimum systematic eigenvalue is greater than one, the ionosphere is R-T unstable; while if the maximum systematic eigenvalue is less than one, the ionosphere is R-T stable. An approximate numerical method for obtaining the systematic eigenvalues is introduced, and the R-T stable/unstable areas are calculated. Numerical experiments axe designed to validate the sufficient conditions. The results agree with the derived suf- ficient conditions.

Simulation on the spatio-temporal distribution and emission flux of dust aerosol over East Asia in 2000-2009

A regional climate model （RegCM3）, coupled with an online dust module, is used to simulate the spatio-temporal distribution and emission flux of dust aerosol （smaller than 20 Wn in diameter） over East Asia in the period from 2000 to 2009. The model perfor- mance is firstly evaluated against available observations. Simulation results show that the model can capture the characteristics of spa- tio-temporal distribution of dust aerosol very well over East Asia. There always exist two extremes of dust aerosol optical depth （AOD） and column burden （CB）, one is in the Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, and the other is in the Ba- dain Jaran Desert of Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region, China. The maximum value of CB appears in spring, secondary maxi- mum in winter and minimum in autumn. To the east of 110°E, dust is transported eastward from a maximum center at a height of 700 hPa over the East Asian continent. Dust emission sources are mainly located in the Taklimakan Desert, Badain Jaran Desert, North Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Southwest Mongolia. There is also an obvious seasonal variation of dust emission flux （EF）. Annual mean dust EF is 1,015.34 mg/（m2.d）, of which 62.4% and 2.3% are re-deposited onto the East Asian continent through a dry and wet deposition process, respectively, and the remaining 35.3% is injected into the atmosphere or subject to long-range transport.

Comparison of Wind Sat and buoy-measured ocean products from 2004 to 2013

To evaluate the ocean surface wind vector and the sea surface temperature obtained from WindSat, we compare these quantities over the time period from January 2004 to December 2013 with moored buoy measurements. The mean bias between the WindSat wind speed and the buoy wind speed is low for the low frequency wind speed product （WSPD_LF）, ranging from -0.07 to 0.08 m/s in different selected areas. The overall RMS error is 0.98 m/s for WSPD_LF, ranging from 0.82 to 1.16 m/s in different selected regions. The wind speed retrieval result in the tropical Ocean is better than that of the coastal and offshore waters of the United States. In addition, the wind speed retrieval accuracy ofWSPD LF is better than that of the medium frequency wind speed product. The crosstalk analysis indicates that the WindSat wind speed retrieval contains some cross influences from the other geophysical parameters, such as sea surface temperature, water vapor and cloud liquid water. The mean bias between the WindSat wind direction and the buoy wind direction ranges from -0.46° to 1.19° in different selected regions. The overall RMS error is 19.59° when the wind speed is greater than 6 m/s. Measurements of the tropical ocean region have a better accuracy than those of the US west and east coasts. Very good agreement is obtained between sea surface temperatures of WindSat and buoy measurements in the tropical Pacific Ocean; the overall RMS error is only 0.36℃, and the retrieval accuracy of the low latitudes is better than that of the middle and high latitudes.

ALLOCATION DIFFERENCE ANALYSES OF WATER SUBSTANCES DURING TYPHOON LANDING PROCESSES

Based on a successful simulation of Typhoon Haikui(2012) using WRF(Weather Research & Forecasting)model with the WSM6 microphysics scheme, a high-resolution model output is presented and analyzed in this study. To understand the cause of the average gridded rainfall stability and increases after Haikui's landfall, this research examines the fields of the physical terms as well as the vapor and condensate distributions and budgets, including their respective changes during the landing process. The environmental vapor supply following the typhoon landfall has no significant difference from that before the landfall. Although Haikui's secondary circulation weakens, this circulation is not conducive to typhoon rainfall stability or increases, although the amounts of the six kinds of water substances(vapor,cloud water, cloud ice, snow, rain, and graupel) increase in the outer region of the typhoon. This reallocation of water substances is essential to the maintenance of rainfall. The six kinds of water substances are classified as vapor, clouds(cloud water and ice) and precipitation(snow, rain, and graupel) to diagnose their budgets. This sorting reveals that the changes in the budgets of different kinds of water substances, caused by the reduced mixing ratios of snow and ice, the water consumption of clouds, and the transformation of graupel, induce increased concentrations of precipitation fallout,which occur closer to the ground after typhoon landfall. In addition, this pattern is an efficient way for Haikui's rainfall to remain stable after its landfall. Thus, the allocation and budget analyses of water substances are meaningful when forecasting the typhoon rainfall stability and increases after landfall.

Numerical Simulation and Moist Potential Vorticity Analysis of Torrential Rain in Jiangxi Province during June 2010

Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with a meso-scale rainstorm model. The results show that this rare rainstorm is a typical heavy rainfall over Meiyu front. The cold air flow behind North China vortex joined up the southwestern flow located in the northwest part of the strong and stable subtropical high,thus the cold air and warm air converged and maintained over the northern part of Hunan and Jiangxi province. The simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar to the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location,intensity and center of heavy rainfall. By moist potential vorticity analysis,it is found that the distribution characteristic of MPV which heavy rainfall happens ahead has an obvious indication for precipitation forecast. The vertical overlapping of the positive and negative MPV1 areas is favorable to the generation and development of rainstorm. This zone is also the conjoint area of convective instability and baroclinic instability.

Comparisons of Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation and Model Output Statistics in Improving Atmospheric Chemistry Forecasts

Atmospheric chemistry models usually perform badly in forecasting wintertime air pollution because of their uncertainties. Generally, such uncertainties can be decreased effectively by techniques such as data assimilation（DA） and model output statistics（MOS）. However, the relative importance and combined effects of the two techniques have not been clarified. Here,a one-month air quality forecast with the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry（WRF-Chem） model was carried out in a virtually operational setup focusing on Hebei Province, China. Meanwhile, three-dimensional variational（3 DVar） DA and MOS based on one-dimensional Kalman filtering were implemented separately and simultaneously to investigate their performance in improving the model forecast. Comparison with observations shows that the chemistry forecast with MOS outperforms that with 3 DVar DA, which could be seen in all the species tested over the whole 72 forecast hours. Combined use of both techniques does not guarantee a better forecast than MOS only, with the improvements and degradations being small and appearing rather randomly. Results indicate that the implementation of MOS is more suitable than 3 DVar DA in improving the operational forecasting ability of WRF-Chem.

An evaluation of new satellite-derived latent and sensible heat fluxes with moored buoy data, OAFlux and NCEP2 reanalysis products

New satellite-derived latent and sensible heat fluxes are performed by using Wind Sat wind speed, Wind Sat sea surface temperature, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting（ECMWF） air humidity, and ECMWF air temperature from 2004 to 2014. The 55 moored buoys are used to validate them by using the 30 min and 25 km collocation window. Furthermore, the objectively analyzed air-sea heat fluxes（OAFlux） products and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 2（NCEP2） products are also used for global comparisons. The mean biases of sensible and latent heat fluxes between Wind Sat flux results and buoy flux data are –0.39 and –8.09 W/m^2, respectively. In addition, the rootmean-square（RMS） errors of the sensible and latent heat fluxes between them are 5.53 and 24.69 W/m^2,respectively. The RMS errors of sensible and latent heat fluxes are observed to gradually increase with an increasing buoy wind speed. The difference shows different characteristics with an increasing sea surface temperature, air humidity, and air temperature. The zonal average latent fluxes have some high regions which are mainly located in the trade wind zones where strong winds carry dry air in January, and the maximum value centers are found in the eastern waters of Japan and on the US east coast. Overall, the seasonal variability is pronounced in the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean. The three sensible and latent heat fluxes have similar latitudinal dependencies; however, some differences are found in some local regions.

Periodic Variations of Drag Coefficient for the ANDE Spherical Satellites During its Lifetime

A drag coefficient(C_d) inversion method is introduced to study the variations of the drag coefficient for orbital satellites with spherical geometry.Drag coefficients of the four micro satellites in the Atmospheric Neutral Density Experiment(ANDE) are compiled out with this new method. The Lomb-Scargle Periodgram(LSP) analysis of the four ANDE satellites' C__d series has shown that there are obvious 5,7,9,and 27 days' period in those data.Interesting results are found through comparing the LSP analysis with series of the daily solar radio flux at 10.7cm(F_(10.7) index),the Ap index,and the daily averaged solar wind speed at 1AU.All series in the same time interval have an obvious period of about 27 days,which has already been explained as the association with the 27 days' solar rotation.The oscillating periods less than 27 days are found in series of C_D,Ap and solar wind speed at 1 AU,e.g.,the 5,7,9 days period.However,these short periods disappeared in the time series of F_(10.7) index.The same periodicities of 5,7,9 days in Ap and solar wind are presented at the same time interval during the declining phase of solar cycle 23.While in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24,these short oscillations are not so obvious as that in the declining phase of solar cycle 23.These results provide definite evidence that the C_d variations with period of 5,7 and 9 days are produced by a combination of space weather effects caused by the solar wind and geomagnetic activity.

Analysis and Test on Influence Factors of Dew Drop Condensation in Dew Point Hygrometer

The condensation process of dew droplets is influenced by many factors. Adew point condensation image observation system was built to improve the responsespeed of dew point detector under different measuring conditions. The basic mechanismof dew drop condensation growth was studied and the influence of various factors on thedew drop growth rate were analyzed. And the accuracy of the influence results wasverified based on the improved Hough transform circle detection. The results show thatthe growth rate of dew droplets is affected by ambient temperature, dew pointtemperature, mirror temperature and air velocity. The observed variation of the averageradius of dew droplets is consistent with the theoretical calculations. The maximumradius error is less than 4 μm, the initial error is larger, and the error oscillates in themiddle and late stages of condensation. The establishment of condensation mechanism ishelpful to solve the problem in fast determination of dew point temperature under thecold start of dew point meter, and to improve the response speed.

A Numerical Study of Mesoscale Vortex Formation in the Midlatitudes:The Role of Moist Processes

In this study, a three-dimensional mesoscale model was used to numerically simulate the well-known "98.7" heavy rainfall event that affected the Yangtze Valley in July 1998. Two experiments were conducted to analyze the impact of moist processes on the development of meso-β scale vortices(MβV) and their triggering by mesoscale wind perturbation(MWP). In the experiment in which the latent heat feedback(LHF) scheme was switched off, a stable low-level col field(i.e., saddle field—a region between two lows and two highs in the isobaric surface) formed, and the MWP triggered a weak MβV. However, when the LHF scheme was switched on as the MWP was introduced into the model, the MβV developed quickly and intense rainfall and a mesoscale low-level jet(mLLJ) were generated. The thickness of the air column and average temperature between 400 and 700 hPa decreased without the feedback of latent heat, whereas they increased quickly when the LHF scheme was switched on, with the air pressure falling at low levels but rising at upper levels. A schematic representation of the positive feedbacks among the mesoscale vortex, rainfall, and mLLJ shows that in the initial stage of the MβV, the MWP triggers light rainfall and the latent heat occurs at low levels, which leads to weak convergence and ageostrophic winds. In the mature stage of the MβV, convection extends to the middle-to-upper levels, resulting in an increase in the average temperature and a stretching of the air column. A low-level cyclonic circulation forms under the effect of Coriolis torque, and the m LLJ forms to the southeast of the MβV.

The Influence of El Ni?o on MJO over the Equatorial Pacific

In this paper, the influence of El Ni?o event on the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) over the equatorial Pacific is studied by using reanalysis data and relevant numerical simulation results. It is clearly shown that El Ni?o can reduce the intensity of MJO. The kinetic energy of MJO over the equatorial Pacific is stronger before the occurrence of the El Ni?o event, but it is reduced rapidly after El Ni?o event outbreak, and the weakened MJO even can continue to the next summer. The convection over the central-western Pacific is weakened in El Ni?o winter. The positive anomalous OLR over the central-western Pacific has opposite variation in El Ni?o winter comparing to the non-ENSO cases. The vertical structure of MJO also affected by El Ni?o event, so the opposite direction features of the geopotential height and the zonal wind in upper and lower level troposphere for the MJO are not remarkable in the El Ni?o winter and tend to be barotropic features. El Ni?o event also has an influence on the eastward propa- gation of the MJO too. During El Ni?o winter, the eastward propagation of the MJO is not so regular and unanimous and there exists some eastward propagation, which is faster than that in non-ENSO case. Dynamic analyses suggest that positive SSTA(El Ni?o case) affects the atmospheric thickness over the equatorial Pacific and then the excited atmospheric wave-CISK mode is weakened, so that the intensity of MJO is reduced; the combining of the barotropic unstable mode in the atmosphere excited by external forcing(SSTA) and the original MJO may be an important reason for the MJO vertical structure tending to be barotropic during the El Ni?o.

Numerical simulations of rip currents off arc-shaped coastlines

The rip currents induced by waves off arc-shaped coastlines are seriously harmful to humans, but understanding of their characteristics is lacking. In this study, the FUNWAVE model was used to calculate the wave-induced currents in the Haller experiment and the ideal arc-shaped coast similar to Sanya Dadonghai, Hainan Province,China. The results showed that the FUNWAVE model has considerable ability to simulate the rip currents, and it was used to further simulate rip currents off arc-shaped coastlines to investigate their characteristics. The rip currents were found to be stronger as the curvature of arc-shaped coastline increased. Coastal beach slope exerts a significant influence on rip currents; in particular, an overly steep or overly mild slope is not conducive to creating rip currents. Furthermore, the rip currents were found to become weaker as the size of arc-shaped coast decreased. When the height and period of waves increase, the strength of rip currents also increases, and, in some cases, wave heights of 0.4 m may produce dangerous rip currents.

Variational regularization method of solving the Cauchy problem for Laplace's equation: Innovation of the Grad–Shafranov(GS) reconstruction

The simplified linear model of Grad-Shafranov （GS） reconstruction can be reformulated into an inverse boundary value problem of Laplace＇s equation. Therefore, in this paper we focus on the method of solving the inverse boundary value problem of Laplace＇s equation. In the first place, the variational regularization method is used to deal with the ill- posedness of the Cauchy problem for Laplace＇s equation. Then, the ＇L-Curve＇ principle is suggested to be adopted in choosing the optimal regularization parameter. Finally, a numerical experiment is implemented with a section of Neumann and Dirichlet boundary conditions with observation errors. The results well converge to the exact solution of the problem, which proves the efficiency and robustness of the proposed method. When the order of observation error δ is 10-1, the order of the approximate result error can reach 10-3.

Statistical Analysis of Thunderstorms on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau Based on Modified Thunderstorm Indices

The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational forecasting to assess the stability of the atmosphere and predict the probability of severe thunderstorm development. One of the disadvantages of many of these indices is that they are mainly based on observations from plains. However, considering the Plateau＇s high elevation, most convective parameters cannot be applied directly, or their application is ineffective. The pre-convective environment on thunderstorm days in this region is investigated based on sounding data obtained throughout a five-year period（2006–10）.Thunderstorms occur over the Tibetan Plateau under conditions that differ strikingly from those in plains. On this basis,stability indices, such as the Showalter index（including SI and SICCL）, and the K index are improved to better assess the thunderstorm environments on the Plateau. Verification parameters, such as the true-skill statistic（TSS） and Heidke skill score（HSS）, are adopted to evaluate the optimal thresholds and relative forecast skill for each modified index. Lastly, the modified indices are verified with a two-year independent dataset（2011–12）, showing satisfactory results for the modified indices. For determining whether or not a thunderstorm day is likely to occur, we recommend the modified SICCLindex.

WindSat satellite comparisons with nearshore buoy wind data near the U.S. west and east coasts

Nearshore wind speeds retrieved by WindSat are validated by a comparison with the moored buoy observations near the U.S. west and east coasts. A 30 min and 25 km collection window is used for the WindSat wind data and buoy measurements from ]anuary 2004 to December 2014. Comparisons show that the overall root-mean-square error is better than 1.44 m/s near the U.S. coasts, and the result for the east coast is better than that for the west coast. The retrieval accuracy of the descending portions is slightly better than that of the ascending portions. Most buoy-to-buoy variations are not significantly correlated with the coastal topography, the longitude and the distance from the shore or satellite-buoy separation distance. In addition, comparisons between a polarimetric microwave radiometer and a microwave scatterometer are accomplished with the nearshore buoy observations from 2007 to 2008. The WindSat-derived winds tend to be lower than the buoy observations near the U.S. coasts. In contrast, the QuikSCAT-derived winds tend to be higher than the buoy observations. Overall, the retrieval accuracy of WindSat is slightly better than that of QuikSCAT, and these satellite-derived winds are sufficiently accurate for scientific studies.

Impact of Convective Momentum Transport by Deep Convection on Simulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation

This paper focuses on the impacts of convective momentum transport(CMT) on simulations of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation(TIO) in SAMIL. Two sets of experiments are performed, which give different reality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO). The Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme is used for all experiments. It is found that simulations of the TIO can be influenced by CMT, and the impacts on the simulated TIO depend on the model capability in simulating the MJO. CMT tends to have large influences to the model that can simulate the eastward propagation of the MJO. CMT can further influence the long-term mean of zonal wind and its vertical shear. Zonal wind suffers from easterlies biases at low level and westerlies biases at upper level when CMT is introduced. Such easterlies biases at low level reduce the reality of the simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillation. When CMT is introduced in the model, MJO signals disappear but the model's mean state improves. Therefore, a more appropriate way is needed to introduce CMT to the model to balance the simulated mean state and TIO signals.