The capability of an improved Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in reproducing the impact of climate on the terrestrial ecosystem is evaluated. The new model incorporates the Community Land Model- DGVM (CLM3.0...The capability of an improved Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in reproducing the impact of climate on the terrestrial ecosystem is evaluated. The new model incorporates the Community Land Model- DGVM (CLM3.0-DGVM) with a submodel for temperate and boreal shrubs, as well as other revisions such as the "two-leaf" scheme for photosynthesis and the definition of fractional coverage of plant functional types (PFTs). Results show that the revised model may correctly reproduce the global distribution of temperate and boreal shrubs, and improves the model performance with more realistic distribution of di?erent vege- tation types. The revised model also correctly reproduces the zonal distributions of vegetation types. In reproducing the dependence of the vegetation distribution on climate conditions, the model shows that the dominant regions for trees, grasses, shrubs, and bare soil are clearly separated by a climate index derived from mean annual precipitation and temperature, in good agreement with the CLM4 surface data. The dominant plant functional type mapping to a two dimensional parameter space of mean annual temperature and precipitation also qualitatively agrees with the results from observations and theoretical ecology studies.展开更多
ABSTRACT The lAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (IAP-DGVM) has been developed to simulate the distribution and structure of global vegetation within the framework of Earth System Models. It incorporates our group...ABSTRACT The lAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (IAP-DGVM) has been developed to simulate the distribution and structure of global vegetation within the framework of Earth System Models. It incorporates our group's recent developments of major model components such as the shrub sub-model, establishment and competition parameterization schemes, and a process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity. The model has 12 plant functional types, including seven tree, two shrub, and three grass types, plus bare soil. Different PFTs are allowed to coexist within a grid cell, and their state variables are updated by various governing equations describing vegetation processes from fine-scale biogeophysics and biogeochemistry, to individual and population dynamics, to large-scale biogeography. Environmental disturbance due to fire not only affects regional vegetation competition, but also influences atmospheric chemistry and aerosol emissions. Simulations under observed atmospheric conditions showed that the model can correctly reproduce the global distribution of trees, shrubs, grasses, and bare soil. The simulated global dominant vegetation types reproduce the transition from forest to grassland (savanna) in the tropical region, and from forest to shrubland in the boreal region, but overestimate the region of temperate forest.展开更多
ABSTRACT This study focuses on the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by IAP AGCM 4.0, the fourth-generation atmospheric general circulation model recently developed at the In...ABSTRACT This study focuses on the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by IAP AGCM 4.0, the fourth-generation atmospheric general circulation model recently developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. In general, the model simulates the intraseasonal evolution of the EASM and the related rain belt. Besides, the model also simulates the two northward jumps of the westem Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which are closely related to the convective activities in the warm pool region and Rossby wave activities in high latitudes. Nevertheless, some evident biases in the model were found to exist. Due to a stronger WPSH, the model fails to simulate the rain belt in southern China during May and June. Besides, the model simulates a later retreat of the EASM, which is attributed to the overestimated land-sea thermal contrast in August. In particular, the timing of the two northward jumps of the WPSH in the model is not coincident with the observation, with a later jump by two pentads for the first jump and an earlier jump by one pentad for the second, i.e., the interval between the two jumps is shorter than the observation. This bias is mainly ascribed to a shorter oscillating periodicity of convection in the tropical northwestern Pacific.展开更多
Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley(YRV) is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier mu...Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley(YRV) is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function(PDF) prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.展开更多
The ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) is applied to the regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly (TSLA). This system is tested with an eddy-resol...The ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) is applied to the regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly (TSLA). This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea (SCS). Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation (RMSD) of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error (AGE) perform better than no AGE error (NoAGE) when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models.展开更多
In Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), the establishment of woody vegetation refers to flowering, fertiliza- tion, seed production, germination, and the growth of tree seedlings. It determines not only the pop...In Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), the establishment of woody vegetation refers to flowering, fertiliza- tion, seed production, germination, and the growth of tree seedlings. It determines not only the population densities but also other important ecosystem structural variables. In current DGVMs, establishments of woody plant functional types (PFTs) are assumed to be either the same in the same grid cell, or largely stochastic. We investigated the uncertainties in the competition of establishment among coexisting woody PFTs from three aspects: the dependence of PFT establishments on vegetation states; background establishment; and relative establishment potentials of different PFTs. Sensitivity experi- ments showed that the dependence of establishment rate on the fractional coverage of a PFT favored the dominant PFT by increasing its share in establishment. While a small background establishment rate had little impact on equilibrium states of the ecosystem, it did change the timescale required for the establishment of alien species in pre-existing forest due to their disadvantage in seed competition during the early stage of invasion. Meanwhile, establishment purely fiom background (the scheme commonly used in current DGVMs) led to inconsistent behavior in response to the change in PFT specification (e.g., number of PFTs and their specification). Furthermore, the results also indicated that trade-off between irtdividual growth and reproduction/colonization has significant influences on the competition of establishment. Hence, further development of es- tablishment parameterization in DGVMs is essential in reducing the uncertainties in simulations of both ecosystem structures and successions.展开更多
基金supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-219, 100 Tal-ents Program)Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2009CB421406)
文摘The capability of an improved Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) in reproducing the impact of climate on the terrestrial ecosystem is evaluated. The new model incorporates the Community Land Model- DGVM (CLM3.0-DGVM) with a submodel for temperate and boreal shrubs, as well as other revisions such as the "two-leaf" scheme for photosynthesis and the definition of fractional coverage of plant functional types (PFTs). Results show that the revised model may correctly reproduce the global distribution of temperate and boreal shrubs, and improves the model performance with more realistic distribution of di?erent vege- tation types. The revised model also correctly reproduces the zonal distributions of vegetation types. In reproducing the dependence of the vegetation distribution on climate conditions, the model shows that the dominant regions for trees, grasses, shrubs, and bare soil are clearly separated by a climate index derived from mean annual precipitation and temperature, in good agreement with the CLM4 surface data. The dominant plant functional type mapping to a two dimensional parameter space of mean annual temperature and precipitation also qualitatively agrees with the results from observations and theoretical ecology studies.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA05110103)the State Key Project for Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951801)
文摘ABSTRACT The lAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (IAP-DGVM) has been developed to simulate the distribution and structure of global vegetation within the framework of Earth System Models. It incorporates our group's recent developments of major model components such as the shrub sub-model, establishment and competition parameterization schemes, and a process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity. The model has 12 plant functional types, including seven tree, two shrub, and three grass types, plus bare soil. Different PFTs are allowed to coexist within a grid cell, and their state variables are updated by various governing equations describing vegetation processes from fine-scale biogeophysics and biogeochemistry, to individual and population dynamics, to large-scale biogeography. Environmental disturbance due to fire not only affects regional vegetation competition, but also influences atmospheric chemistry and aerosol emissions. Simulations under observed atmospheric conditions showed that the model can correctly reproduce the global distribution of trees, shrubs, grasses, and bare soil. The simulated global dominant vegetation types reproduce the transition from forest to grassland (savanna) in the tropical region, and from forest to shrubland in the boreal region, but overestimate the region of temperate forest.
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2010CB951901)the Strategic Priority Re search Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Related Issue of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.XDA05110201)
文摘ABSTRACT This study focuses on the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by IAP AGCM 4.0, the fourth-generation atmospheric general circulation model recently developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. In general, the model simulates the intraseasonal evolution of the EASM and the related rain belt. Besides, the model also simulates the two northward jumps of the westem Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which are closely related to the convective activities in the warm pool region and Rossby wave activities in high latitudes. Nevertheless, some evident biases in the model were found to exist. Due to a stronger WPSH, the model fails to simulate the rain belt in southern China during May and June. Besides, the model simulates a later retreat of the EASM, which is attributed to the overestimated land-sea thermal contrast in August. In particular, the timing of the two northward jumps of the WPSH in the model is not coincident with the observation, with a later jump by two pentads for the first jump and an earlier jump by one pentad for the second, i.e., the interval between the two jumps is shorter than the observation. This bias is mainly ascribed to a shorter oscillating periodicity of convection in the tropical northwestern Pacific.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 41005052 and 41375086)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110201)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950403)
文摘Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley(YRV) is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function(PDF) prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.
基金The Major State Basic Research Development Program of China under contract Nos 201-1CB403606 and 2011CB403500the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41222038,41076011and 41206023the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Operational Development Foundation of the State Oceanic Administration of China under contract No.2013002
文摘The ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) is applied to the regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly (TSLA). This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea (SCS). Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation (RMSD) of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error (AGE) perform better than no AGE error (NoAGE) when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05110103)the State Key Project for Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2010CB951801)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(Grant No.2009AA122105)
文摘In Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), the establishment of woody vegetation refers to flowering, fertiliza- tion, seed production, germination, and the growth of tree seedlings. It determines not only the population densities but also other important ecosystem structural variables. In current DGVMs, establishments of woody plant functional types (PFTs) are assumed to be either the same in the same grid cell, or largely stochastic. We investigated the uncertainties in the competition of establishment among coexisting woody PFTs from three aspects: the dependence of PFT establishments on vegetation states; background establishment; and relative establishment potentials of different PFTs. Sensitivity experi- ments showed that the dependence of establishment rate on the fractional coverage of a PFT favored the dominant PFT by increasing its share in establishment. While a small background establishment rate had little impact on equilibrium states of the ecosystem, it did change the timescale required for the establishment of alien species in pre-existing forest due to their disadvantage in seed competition during the early stage of invasion. Meanwhile, establishment purely fiom background (the scheme commonly used in current DGVMs) led to inconsistent behavior in response to the change in PFT specification (e.g., number of PFTs and their specification). Furthermore, the results also indicated that trade-off between irtdividual growth and reproduction/colonization has significant influences on the competition of establishment. Hence, further development of es- tablishment parameterization in DGVMs is essential in reducing the uncertainties in simulations of both ecosystem structures and successions.
基金This study was co-supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2017YFA0604302]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41475099 and 41875137]the Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences[grant number QYZDY-SSW-DQC002].