Poverty reduction through the development of inclusive food value chains

Propelled by urbanization,rising incomes,and changing diets,food markets have been expanding in Africa and South Asia,creating the vast potential for job and income opportunities along food supply chains and,hence,for poverty reduction.The novel coronavirus(COVID-19)that spread to a pandemic in early 2020 provokes enormous setbacks to this expansion.This,however,should provide lessons regarding the importance of resilient and inclusive food systems.Emergency responses to COVID-19 should consider interventions towards that end and leverage the opportunities provided by food markets growth as economies recover from the present economic recession.This paper assesses options of how this could be done by facilitating the better functioning and interconnectedness of the many small and medium-sized enterprises that are proliferating along the"hidden middle"of food value chains in storage,logistics,transportation,and wholesale and retail distribution.It also explores how policies can help smallholder farmers connect to this"hidden middle"in more gainful ways and help them climb out of poverty as well.

Editorial for the special issue on food safety in China

All countries face the challenge of regulating their food systems and anticipating the next major food-borne disease.In China,the difficulty of this challenge is exacerbated by scale.With regulatory authorities spread across various agencies and municipalities,Chinese regulators are hard-pressed to present a unified front in tackling food safety challenges.As a result of these difficulties,food safety incidents

利用交叉信息熵模拟东北地区水稻种植面积空间分布

作物时空分布变化是农业研究的重要内容。近30a来,东北地区水稻种植面积显著增加,为探讨东北地区水稻时空变化特征,进一步丰富和完善作物空间分布信息获取方法,研究作物空间分布对包括气候变化在内的多种影响因素的响应关系,该研究综合80年代以来的作物面积与产量统计数据、耕地数据、农业灌溉数据以及作物生长适宜性分布等多源数据,利用基于交叉信息熵原理的作物空间分配模型(spatial production allocation model,SPAM)构建了针对中国作物分布特点的SPAM-China模型,模拟了中国东北地区1980-2008年像元尺度上水稻空间分布信息。结果表明,模拟结果能较好地反映出东北地区水稻主要种植区域,近30a东北地区水稻种植时空变化特征显著,水稻种植区域向北向东扩展,种植重心北移了约1.76个纬度,中北部地区水稻种植面积增加且趋势明显,南部地区变化趋势不显著。

Modeling and simulation of recurrent phenotypic and genomic selections in plant breeding under the presence of epistasis

Recurrent selection is an important breeding method for population improvement and selecting elite inbreds or fixed lines from the improved germplasm.Recently,a computer simulation tool called QuMARS has been developed,which allows the simulation and optimization of various recurrent selection strategies.Our major objective in this study was to use the QuMARS tool to compare phenotypic recurrent,marker-assisted recurrent,and genomic selections(abbreviated respectively as PS,MARS and GS)for both short-and long-termbreeding procedures.ForMARS,twomarker selection models were considered,i.e.,stepwise(Rstep)and forward regressions(Forward).For GS,three prediction models were considered,i.e.,genomic best linear unbiased predictors(GBLUP),ridge regression(Ridge),and regression by Moore-Penrose general inverse(InverseMP).To generate genotypes and phenotypes for a given individual during simulation,one additive and two epistasis genetic models were considered with three levels of heritability.Results demonstrated that selection responses from GBLUP-based GS and MARS(Forward)were consistently greater than those from PS under the additive model,particularly in early selection cycles.In contrast,selection response from PS was consistently superior over MARS and GS under epistatic models.For the two epistasis models,total genetic variance and the additive variance component were increased in some cases after selection.Through simulation,we concluded that GS and PS were effective recurrent selection methods for improved breeding of targeted traits controlled by additive and epistatic quantitative trait loci(QTL).QuMARS provides an opportunity for breeders to compare,optimize and integrate new technology into their conventional breeding programs.

Paths out of poverty:An eclectic and idiosyncratic review of analytical approaches

This paper briefly reviews different debates about approaches for paths out of poverty,considering several views,from the analysis of specific policies to more general or systemic considerations.The contribution of this paper is to present a broad outline of those debates and to serve as an illustration of the complexity of analyzing paths out of poverty.It discusses in sequence,the more microeconomic approach of evaluation of individual policies for poverty alleviation;then it moves to broader issues of growth and development strategies,and macroeconomic policies,and their links to the persistence or reduction of poverty;and finally discusses the topic of institutions,related to how policy decisions are made and enforced in societies at the previous three levels.Finally,the concluding section argues that a successful program to eliminate poverty must integrate all levels of individual policies,macroeconomic programs,development strategies and good institutions.This paper hopes to contribute to that crucial work.

Institutions,policies and soil degradation:theoretical examinations and case studies in Southeast China

Southeast China is one of the severe soil degradation areas in China. This paper theoretically examines the impact of some important institutional arrangements and policies, like land management pattern, the rural off-farm employment, land property change and changes in prices of agricultural products, on soil degradation in this area. It further conducts some case studies to confirm the potential relationship between the institutions & policies and soil degradation, applying the surveyed and the second hand data. The paper at last makes some conclusions and proposes some suggestions on how to promote soil conservation by improving the ways of policy decision-making and the effects of policies on land use.

Effects of Labor Price Hike and Population Ageing on Rural Land Lease in China

In answering the questions as whether China's rising labor price and ageing workforce have affected rural land leasing and whether these factors have any joint effect,we have employed RCRE data of the Ministry of Agriculture to carry out an empirical analysis and the result indicates that labor price hike has significant positive effects on both the land lease-in and lease-out of rural households,i.e.labor price hike will help increase the land leasing of rural households.At the level of ageing workforce,our empirical results indicate that ageing workforce does not create any significant impact on rural land leasing market no matter for land lease-in or lease-out in overall samples,plain regions and mountainous regions.In our empirical analysis on whether ageing workforce will intensify or weaken the effects of labor price hike on rural land leasing market,the regression result also indicates that there is no significant effect from a statistical perspective.

TRANSFORMATION OF FOOD SYSTEMS:HOW CAN IT BE FINANCED?

The paper provides a review of the work on financing the transformation of food systems done by the author and colleagues at IFPRI.The analysis discusses the objectives of that transformation(related to the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement)and shows estimates of the costs involved.Then it presents an evaluation of the existing financial flows and their potential scaling up,using a broader view of six main flows involved:two that are internal to food systems(consumer expenditures on food and related items,which are the main source of revenue(as sales)for the variety of actors on the supply side of food systems);and four that are external(international development funds,public budgets,banking systems,and capital markets).The paper notes that although current funding does not reach the scale needed to finance the desired transformation of food systems,there are sufficient potential financial resources available in the aggregate to achieve such transformation.However,to mobilize the existing potential funds the paper discussed several things that need to be done,starting with an adequate macroeconomic and overall incentive framework to guide both the internal flows related to consumption and production decisions,as well as the four external ones.The paper also suggested other possible interventions to mobilize,reorient,and increase the financial flows to the desired objectives.It further noted that the costs and financing,which in the paper were discussed at the global level,must be estimated at the country level,as part of the design and implementation of adequate national plans for equitable,healthy and sustainable food systems.

Changing Chinese Diets to Achieve a Win-Win Solution for Health and the Environment

Diets are key determinants of nutrition and health and play a significant role in the environment.In this article,we aim to(i)describe dietary transitions and health in China and the consequent environmental challenges;(ii)identify differences between current Chinese diets and healthy reference diets;(iii)conduct a systematic review assessing the health impacts of four reference diets on the Chinese population,and(iv)simulate changes in greenhouse gas emissions under different diet scenarios.The results show differences between the Chinese diets and reference diets,with the current Chinese diet including mainly grains(especially refined rice),excessive meat consumption,and insufficient consumption of fruit and milk.If all Chinese consumers adopt one of the healthy reference diets all the time,the incidence of diet-related chronic disease and mortality would be significantly reduced.Such dietary shifts would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 146-202 million tons(18-25 percent)compared with the projected emissions level in 2030.

Impacts of Import Refusals on Agricultural Exports duri ng Pan demies: Implicatio ns for China

Pandemic outbreaks disrupt agricultural trade.The possible strengthening of import barriers to products from countries at the epicenter of a pandemic by their trade partners could aggravate this situation.This paper examines the responses of the US Food and Drug Administration(FDA),import refusals,and subsequent trade impacts on the agricultural exports from the developing countries that were the epicenters of four pandemics in the past two decades.Using monthly data for the period 2002-2020,we find increased import refusals and amplified trade-impeding impacts on agricultural exports during pandemic outbreaks.Increased import refusals and the amplification of the trade-impeding effect of import refusals were especially large when China was the epicenter.We further examine possible differences in these results across products and FDA inspection methods,and the main conclusions remain robust.This paper offers a better understanding of the economic outcomes of pandemic outbreaks and provides policy suggestions for China.

The Impacts of COVID-19 on Migrants,Remittances,and Poverty in China:A Microsimulation Analysis

Chinese migrant workers are very exposed to the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.Falling remittances adversely affect their families who rely on remittance incomes.The impacts of COVID-19 on migrants and remittance-receiving households are assessed using a nationally representative household dataset and a microsimulation model.We found about 70 percent of migrant workers lost part of their wage income during the pandemic lockdown period and rural migrants working in small and medium enterprises were affected the most.This led to about 50 percent of remittance-receiving households being affected adversely by falling remittances,and the average decline in such income was more than 45 percent.Nearly 13 percent of pre-pandemic nonpoor remittance-receiving households could fall into poverty,raising the poverty rate among remittancereceiving households by 4 percentage points.Many households that were poor prior to the pandemic became more impoverished.The results indicate that social protection programs targeting vulnerable migrants and their families at home are important.

Guest Editors’Introduction

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic that began in early 2020 has severely disrupted agricultural production,food supplies,and the day-to-day life of rural residents in China.China has responded to this crisis by imposing government regulations,launching fiscal support,encouraging and facilitating digital technologies,particularly e-commence,and mobilizing rural communities.