Selecting and applying quantification models for ecosystem services to forest ecosystems in South Korea

There is growing interest in using ecosystem services to aid development of management strategies that target sustainability and enhance ecosystem support to humans. Challenges remain in the search for methods and indicators that can quantify ecosystem services using metrics that are meaningful in light of their high priorities. We developed a framework to link ecosystems to human wellbeing based on a stepwise approach. We evaluated prospective models in terms of their capacity to quantify national ecosystem services of forests. The most applicable models were subsequently used to quantify ecosystem services. The Korea Forest Research Institute model sat- isfied all criteria in its first practical use. A total of 12 key ecosystem services were identified. For our case study, we quantified four ecosystem functions, viz. water storage capacity in forest soil for water storage service, reduced suspended sediment for water purification service, reduced soil erosion for landslide prevention service, and reduced sediment yield for sediment regulation service. Water storage capacity in forest soil was estimated at 2142 t/ha, and reduced suspended sediment was estimated at 608 kg/ ha. Reduced soil erosion was estimated at 77 m^3/ha, and reduced sediment yield was estimated at 285 m^3/ha. These results were similar to those reported by previous studies. Mapped results revealed hotspots of ecosystem services around protected areas that were particularly rich in bio- diversity. In addition, the proposed framework illustrated that quantification of ecosystem services could be sup- ported by the spatial flow of ecosystem services. However, our approach did not address challenges faced when quantifying connections between ecosystem indicators and actual benefits of services described.

Carbon Dynamics in Woody Biomass of Forest Ecosystem in China with Forest Management Practices under Future Climate Change and Rising CO_2 Concentration

It is critical to study how different forest management practices affect forest carbon sequestration under global climate change regime.Previous researches focused on the stand-level forest carbon sequestration with rare investigation of forest carbon stocks influenced by forest management practices and climate change at regional scale.In this study,a general integrative approach was used to simulate spatial and temporal variations of woody biomass and harvested biomass of forest in China during the 21st century under different scenarios of climate and CO2 concentration changes and management tasks by coupling Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon budget(InTEC) model with Global Forest Model(G4M).The results showed that forest management practices have more predominant effects on forest stem stocking biomass than climate and CO2 concentration change.Meanwhile,the concurrent future changes in climate and CO2 concentration will enhance the amounts of stem stocking biomass in forests of China by 12%–23% during 2001–2100 relative to that with climate change only.The task for maximizing stem stocking biomass will dramatically enhance the stem stocking biomass from 2001–2100,while the task for maximum average increment will result in an increment of stem stocking biomass before 2050 then decline.The difference of woody biomass responding to forest management tasks was owing to the current age structure of forests in China.Meanwhile,the sensitivity of long-term woody biomass to management practices for different forest types(coniferous forest,mixed forest and deciduous forest) under changing climate and CO2 concentration was also analyzed.In addition,longer rotation length under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration scenario will dramatically increase the woody biomass of China during 2001–2100.Therefore,our estimation indicated that taking the role of forest management in the carbon cycle into the consideration at regional or national level is very important to project the forest carbon sequestration under future climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Zonal aspects of the influence of forest cover change on runoff in northern river basins of Central Siberia

Background:Assessment of the reasons for the ambiguous influence of forests on the structure of the water balance is the subject of heated debate among forest hydrologists.Influencing the components of total evaporation,forest vegetation makes a significant contribution to the process of runoff formation,but this process has specific features in different geographical zones.The issues of the influence of forest vegetation on river runoff in the zonal aspect have not been sufficiently studied.Results:Based on the analysis of the dependence of river runoff on forest cover,using the example of nine catchments located in the forest-tundra,northern and middle taiga of Northern Eurasia,it is shown that the share of forest cover in the total catchment area(percentage of forest cover,FCP)has different effects on runoff formation.Numerical experiments with the developed empirical models have shown that an increase in forest cover in the catchment area in northern latitudes contributes to an increase in runoff,while in the southern direction(in the middle taiga)extensive woody cover of catchments“works”to reduce runoff.The effectiveness of geographical zonality in regards to the influence of forests on runoff is more pronounced in the forest-tundra zone than in the zones of northern and middle taiga.Conclusion:The study of this problem allowed us to analyze various aspects of the hydrological role of forests,and to show that forest ecosystems,depending on environmental conditions and the spatial distribution of forest cover,can transform water regimes in different ways.Despite the fact that the process of river runoff formation is controlled by many factors,such as temperature conditions,precipitation regime,geomorphology and the presence of permafrost,the models obtained allow us to reveal general trends in the dependence of the annual river runoff on the percentage of forest cover,at the level of catchments.The results obtained are consistent with the concept of geographic determinism,which explains the contradictions that exist in assessing the hydrological role of forests in various geographical and climatic conditions.The results of the study may serve as the basis for regulation of the forest cover of northern Eurasian river basins in order to obtain the desired hydrological effect depending on environmental and economic conditions.

Creating Space for Children’s Voices: Utility of the Collage Life Story Elicitation Technique

A challenge for many School-Based Family Counseling(SBFC)practitioners,child psychotherapists and researchers are finding ways to give voice to children and eliciting trustworthy and detailed narratives that could serve as resource for understanding the needs of young clients in the context of all their interpersonal networks.Children are often reticent when asked to self-disclose and tell their stories during consultation.The purpose of the present study was to examine the utility of five sequential steps constituting the Collage Life Story Elicitation Technique(CLET)for scaffolding storytelling among children in middle childhood(aged 9-12 years).Using the CLET for data collection and conducting an interpretive analysis,the researchers explored the performance of 38 middle-childhood children living in three different settings.Findings suggest that the five sequential steps of the CLET adequately and satisfactorily combine to stimulate and elicit rich data and help children to construct their narratives and represent the challenges they face in everyday living.We discuss the application of CLET in SBFC practice as tool when screening and intervention planning for children’s perspectives pertaining to a range of topics regarding each of the four quadrants as proposed in the SBFC metamodel.

Review of multi-objective optimization in long-term energy system models

Modeling and optimizing long-term energy systems can provide solutions to various energy and environmental policies involving public-interest issues.The conventional optimization of long-term energy system models focuses on a single economic goal.However,the increasingly complex demands of energy systems necessitate the comprehensive consideration of multiple dimensional objectives,such as environmental,social,and energy security.Therefore,a multi-objective optimization of long-term energy system models has been developed.Herein,studies pertaining to the multi-objective optimization of long-term energy system models are summarized;the optimization objectives of long-term energy system models are classified into economic,environmental,social,and energy security aspects;and the multi-objective optimization methods are classified and explained based on the preferential expression of decision makers.Finally,the key development direction of the multi-objective optimization of energy system models is discussed.

A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models

A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution.Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling,incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation.This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model.The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy,economic,and technical factors.This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition.It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems.Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review.Finally,important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed,and future research directions are proposed.

Research on Well-being:Measuring“Good Life”,Shifting Values,and Cross-cultural Applicability

The concept of well-being has evolved over the several decades as research continued to reveal its multidimensional,dynamic,person-specific,and culture-specific nature,including most recently,the ecological embeddedness of well-being.Well-being encompasses how well people live with regard to people’s physical,social,and mental conditions,the fulfillment of their basic needs and capabilities,and the opportunities and resources to which they have access.Scholars use well-being research to under­stand why some humans thrive,while others do not.

近50年气候变化对中国小麦生产潜力的影响分析

为了定量评估气候变化背景下中国小麦生产潜力变化主要特征和气候归因,将1961—2010年分为1961—1990年和1991—2010年2个时段,对比分析近50年气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化,并基于IIASA最新开发的农业生态区模型AEZ3.0模拟气候变化对中国小麦生产潜力的影响。结果表明,由于热量、水分条件以及小麦生育期的变化,近50年中国雨养和灌溉小麦单产潜力增加的区域主要为东北、华北和四川盆地,单产潜力减少的区域为西北和东南地区。中国冬小麦的适宜区域出现较明显的北扩南收态势,而雨养春小麦适宜面积在中国半湿润半干旱的过渡带显著减少。全国雨养小麦总生产潜力减少5%,而灌溉小麦总生产潜力变化不大。东北区域雨养和灌溉小麦总生产潜力增加都最为明显,是气候变化背景下实现中国小麦增产的重点区域。中国小麦生产需要合理利用气候资源和优化布局,以适应气候变化带来的影响。

中国农业氧化亚氮排放情景研究

采用国际应用系统分析研究所的"牲畜和粮食产量动态模型",模拟出2000-2030年间中国粮食和牲畜的数量和需求量的地理分布,然后应用GAINS模型预测我国未来农业N2O排放量。结果显示,2000年我国农业N2O排放量为1533ktN2O,到2030年将增加到2000ktN2O左右,增长31%;农田N2O排放占农业N2O总排放量的80%,2030年农田N2O的排放量比2000年增长37%。由于活动水平数据的模拟结果不同,各情景的N2O排放量不同,其中INMIC_低情景中N2O的排放量稍高于中、高排放情景。我国农业N2O排放主要集中在山东、河南、四川、河北,江苏、湖南、云南、安徽等省,到2030年,黑龙江、内蒙古、新疆、云南和湖南五省的N2O增加量在30ktN2O以上。硝化抑制剂作为N2O的减排措施,从2015年开始实施,减排效率由4%上升到16%。采用IPCC默认排放因子会高估我国农田N2O排放。

基于AEZ模型我国农作制区划的玉米产量潜力分析

根据联合国粮农组织(FAO)和国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)基于中国1961￣1997的统计资料(经多方校正)共同开发的AEZ模型,运用GIS平台计算了中国41个农作制亚区的玉米生产潜力,并指出了单产最高潜力分布区域。研究结果表明:我国玉米的最高产量潜力大约是目前产量的2.5倍,这对我国玉米高产育种及栽培具有重要参考意义。

基于AEZ模型的我国农区小麦生产潜力分析

根据联合国粮农组织（FAO）和国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）基于中国1961～1997年的统计资料（经多方校正）共同开发的AEZ模型，运用GIS平台计算了中国41个农作制亚区的小麦生产潜力，并指出了单产最高潜力分布区域。研究结果表明，我国小麦的最高产量潜力约为目前产量的2～3倍。这对我国小麦高产育种及栽培具有重要意义。

基于AEZ模型的我国大豆产量潜力的农作制区划分析

根据联合国粮农组织（FAO）和国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）基于中国1961～1997年的统计资料（经多方校正）共同开发的AEZ模型，运用GIS平台研究了中国41个农作制亚区的大豆生产潜力，以及单产和总产最高潜力分布区域。研究结果表明：我国大豆的最高单产潜力大约是目前产量的2～3倍。单产潜力主要分布在鲁西平原鲁中丘陵、黄淮平原南阳盆地及汾渭谷地，总产潜力主要分布在三江平原、黄淮平原南阳盆地及松辽平原。

基于AEZ模型的我国水稻产量潜力的农作制区划分析

本文根据联合国粮农组织（FAO）和国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）基于中国1961—1997年的统计资料（经多方校正）共同开发的AEZ模型，运用GIS平台计算了中国41个农作制亚区的水稻生产潜力，并指出了单产最高潜力分布区域。研究结果表明：我国水稻的最高产量潜力大约将是目前产量的2倍。这对我国水稻高产育种及栽培具有重要参考意义。

基于AEZ模型的我国马铃薯产量潜力的农作制区划分析

根据联合国粮农组织(FAO)和国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)基于中国1961～1997年的统计资料(经多方校正)共同开发的AEZ模型,运用GIS平台计算了中国41个农作制亚区的马铃薯生产潜力,并指出了单产最高潜力分布区域。研究结果表明:我国马铃薯的最高产量潜力大约将是目前产量的2～3倍。这对我国马铃薯高产育种及栽培具有重要参考意义。

基于AEZ模型的我国主要作物单产潜力的农作制区划分析

本文根据联合国粮农组织(FAO)和国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)基于中国1961年以来的统计资料共同开发的AEZ模型,运用GIS平台计算了中国41个农作制亚区6大主要作物(水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯、油菜、大豆)的单产潜力.指出以上作物单产最高潜力分布为:水稻在江淮江汉平原,小麦在秦巴山区,玉米在黄淮平原南阳盆地,马铃薯在秦巴山区,油菜在秦巴山区,大豆在鲁西平原鲁中丘陵.研究结果表明:我国以上主要作物的最高单产潜力是目前全国平均单产的1.2-2.9倍.这对指导我国农作物高产育种及栽培具有重要参考意义.

Geographic Variation of Rice Yield Response to Past Climate Change in China

Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a signiifcant decline of simulated national rice yield （simulated with CERES-Rice）, with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which conifrmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14＆#176;C and above 20＆#176;C, a 1＆#176;C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20＆#176;C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the signiifcant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China＇s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identiifed as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.

Exploring the driving factors and their mitigation potential in global energy-related CO2 emission

In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies,an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission.To this end,we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity,which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification.The logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO2 emissions.Further,the global energy interconnection(GEI)scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2℃goal of the Paris Agreement.By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis,the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO2 emission has been analyzed.Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO2 emissions,whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction.A numerical analysis,performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions,suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO2 emissions,thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future.Moreover,the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.

Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions

Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs)to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement.However,the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’decision-making process.In this study,we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario(ΔT=0.6°C)and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model.Considering reductions in CO_(2),CH_(4),N_(2)O,BC,and SO_(2),the R5OECD(the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1990)and R5ASIA(Asian countries)are the top two contributors to global warming mitigation,accounting for 39.3%and 36.8%,respectively.R5LAM(Latin America and the Caribbean)and R5MAF(the Middle East and Africa)followed behind,with contributions of 11.5%and 8.9%,respectively.The remaining 3.5%is attributed to R5REF(the Reforming Economies).Carbon Dioxide emission reduction is the decisive factor of regional contributions,but not the only one.Other greenhouse gases are also important,especially for R5MAF.The contribution of short-lived aerosols is small but significant,notably SO_(2)reduction in R5ASIA.We argue that additional species beyond CO_(2)need to be considered,including short-lived pollutants,when planning a route to mitigate climate change.It needs to be emphasized that there is still a gap to achieve the Paris Agreement 2-degree target with current NDC efforts,let alone the ambitious 1.5-degree target.All countries need to pursue stricter reduction policies for a more sustainable world.

Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emission inventory for Pakistan:Part I energy and industrial processes and product use

In order to further improve the accuracy and reliability and reduce uncertainties in the national GHG inventories for Pakistan,this study call for using 2006 IPCC Guidelines,to help to identify the national targets for GHG mitigation with respect to the nationally determined contributions(NDCs).GHG(CO2,CH4,and N20)inventories for Pakistan have been developed by conducting a detailed sectoral assessment of IPCC source sectors,energy,industrial processes and product use(IPPU),agriculture,forestry and other land use(AFOLU),and the waste sector.Further,sector wise comparative analysis of GHG inventories(1994-2017)based on the 2006 and 1996 IPCC Guidelines have also been presented.Results indicated an average relative difference of 4%in total GHG emissions(CO2 equivalent)from energy sector between 2006 and 1996 IPCC Guidelines.With 3.6%average annual growth rate based on 2006 IPCC Guidelines,CO2 from energy sector remained the most abundant GHG emitted,followed by CH4 and N2O.While the average absolute difference in emissions of CH4 and N20 from the energy sector is notable,the total estimated GHG emissions by 2006 IPCC Guidelines duplicate those by 1996 IPCC Guidelines.In the mineral industry with 2006 IPCC Guidelines,an average annual growth rate of 6.7%is observed,contributing 64%of total IPPU sector CO2 emissions.Nevertheless,the relative difference between the two Guidelines in overall IPPU sector emissions remained negligible.There might be a need for switching to 2006 IPCC Guidelines to consider more parameters such as additional source sectors and new default emission factors that fit into national circumstances.

Synergies of carbon neutrality, air pollution control, and health improvement - a case study of China Energy Interconnection scenario

Climate change and air pollution are primarily caused by the combustion and utilization of fossil fuels.Both climate change and air pollution cause health problems.Based on the development of China,it is extremely important to explore the synergies of the energy transition,CO_(2) reduction,air pollution control,and health improvement under the target of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.This study introduces the policy evolution and research progress related to energy,climate change,and the environment in China and proposes a complete energy-climate-air-health mechanism framework.Based on the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model,emission inventory and chemical transport model,and exposure-response function,a comprehensive assessment method of energy-climate-air-health synergies was established and applied to quantify the impacts of Chinese Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality(CEICN)scenario.The results demonstrate that,by 2060,the SO_(2),NO_(x) and PM_(2.5) emissions are estimated to be reduced by 91%,85%,and 90%respectively compared to the business-as-usual(BAU)scenario.The direct health impacts brought by achieving the goal of carbon neutrality will drive the proactive implementation of more emission reduction measures and bring greater benefits to human health.